Latest news with #UKinaChangingEurope
Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The critical weaknesses in Starmer's EU defence pact
Sir Keir Starmer is expected to announce a defence pact with the EU on Monday that many hope will land the UK arms industry a slice of Europe's spending boom. However, amid the usual bureaucracy and infighting in Brussels, there are growing doubts over whether this military bonanza will ever materialise. Experts warn that European governments' desires to boost their own domestic industries, placate voters and staunch their bleeding budgets could slow or even thwart efforts to strengthen the bloc's defence. This means that even if Sir Keir secures a ticket to ride the European defence gravy train, it may never leave the station. 'There are big question marks over whether Europe has the means and commitment to undertake the extra spending and sustained co-operation that this [defence expansion] would require,' said Vicky Redwood, Capital Economics's senior adviser, in a recent report. Up until now, the signs have appeared promising. European leaders have long stressed a need to bolster their defences to guard against the threat from an expansionist Russia, with military commitments growing ever more pronounced since Donald Trump took office in America. There have been several positive developments this month alone. Last week, Friedrich Merz, the new chancellor of Germany, said his successful unpicking of his country's fiscal lock would allow him to build 'the strongest conventional army in Europe', which will mean spending billions of euros more per year. In Turkey, that same day, Nato foreign ministers hatched a deal on reaching Trump's new stretch target of spending a 5pc of GDP on defence. Elsewhere, bureaucrats in Brussels have also been negotiating how to include non-EU countries like Britain in a new €150bn (£127bn) fund for defence projects. The UK's Security and Defence Partnership with the EU, which the two sides hope to agree on Monday, would allow British businesses to participate in projects bankrolled by the scheme, although their involvement would likely be tightly capped. 'There's an opportunity here for UK industry to play on a much bigger pitch,' says Labour's Liam Byrne, who chairs the business and trade committee. However, even if the European gate is prised open for UK weapons manufacturers, there may be less behind it than the Starmer Government hopes. 'Without question, signature of the pact at the summit is desirable, but in the near future it will not create the single European defence market, including the UK, that some member-states would like to see,' the Centre for European Reform, a think tank, has said ahead of the summit. The fundamental challenge is that European countries, particularly France, are reluctant to relinquish any of their own defence output or jobs for the greater collective good. 'For Europe to be efficient and effective, governments would have to spend defence money on other people's defence industries,' says Anand Menon, director of the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. 'Will the Poles, for instance, with all their new defence money, be willing to plough that into French industry?' Redwood is sceptical of the Europeans' commitment to collectivity, as she questions 'whether Europe has the political will for a shake-up of defence policy beyond some extra German-led spending over the next two or three years'. 'After all, self-sufficiency in defence would require a lot of money and, arguably more importantly, a lot of willpower and collective effort,' she says. Even if they could work together, the EU's 27 countries don't agree on their greater collective strategic interest. Hungary and Slovakia are at best ambivalent on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and their recalcitrance could fetter the EU's ability to power a defence industrial revolution. 'We're talking about a conflict in which two, possibly three, member states seem to be on the wrong side. That's problematic,' Manon says. 'Because those member states aren't onside, then you can't use the EU [to defend against military threats]. And the EU isn't very good at deploying military force anyway. If you can't use the EU, what do you use? In the past, you'd have said Nato, obviously. But the question now is, can you trust the United States enough to use Nato?' Even if the Europeans agreed on the ends, there's still the question of whether they have the means. The Bruegel Institute estimates that the Europeans will need to stump up as much as €250bn a year in extra spending if they are to field the manpower, material and manufacturing capability required to fend off the likes of Russia. But government budgets are already stretched as the pandemic and the Ukraine-sparked energy crisis left deficit and debt levels unsustainably high. Every extra euro spent on defence will have to come from a frontline service like health or education, raising awkward questions politically. Even some governments that oppose Vladimir Putin's invasion, like those of Spain and Italy, might struggle to sell that trade-off to their electorates, Redwood says. And if Trump does manage to pull off a Ukraine peace deal that puts Putin back in his box, the impetus for a big military revolution could fade. But Byrne reckons the Europeans will pull together, with Britain tagging along for the ride. 'I think the political will is actually going to trump the bureaucratic inertia that is still there,' he says. 'There are obviously countries like France which have raised concerns and objections. But overwhelmingly, the political consensus, especially in Scandinavia and the Baltics, as well as along Nato's eastern flank, is really clear. 'And they see the UK as an absolutely core supplier of what Nato needs to win wars in the future.' 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Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The critical weaknesses in Starmer's EU defence pact
Sir Keir Starmer is expected to announce a defence pact with the EU on Monday that many hope will land the UK arms industry a slice of Europe's spending boom. However, amid the usual bureaucracy and infighting in Brussels, there are growing doubts over whether this military bonanza will ever materialise. Experts warn that European governments' desires to boost their own domestic industries, placate voters and staunch their bleeding budgets could slow or even thwart efforts to strengthen the bloc's defence. This means that even if Sir Keir secures a ticket to ride the European defence gravy train, it may never leave the station. 'There are big question marks over whether Europe has the means and commitment to undertake the extra spending and sustained co-operation that this [defence expansion] would require,' said Vicky Redwood, Capital Economics's senior adviser, in a recent report. Up until now, the signs have appeared promising. European leaders have long stressed a need to bolster their defences to guard against the threat from an expansionist Russia, with military commitments growing ever more pronounced since Donald Trump took office in America. There have been several positive developments this month alone. Last week, Friedrich Merz, the new chancellor of Germany, said his successful unpicking of his country's fiscal lock would allow him to build 'the strongest conventional army in Europe', which will mean spending billions of euros more per year. In Turkey, that same day, Nato foreign ministers hatched a deal on reaching Trump's new stretch target of spending a 5pc of GDP on defence. Elsewhere, bureaucrats in Brussels have also been negotiating how to include non-EU countries like Britain in a new €150bn (£127bn) fund for defence projects. The UK's Security and Defence Partnership with the EU, which the two sides hope to agree on Monday, would allow British businesses to participate in projects bankrolled by the scheme, although their involvement would likely be tightly capped. 'There's an opportunity here for UK industry to play on a much bigger pitch,' says Labour's Liam Byrne, who chairs the business and trade committee. However, even if the European gate is prised open for UK weapons manufacturers, there may be less behind it than the Starmer Government hopes. 'Without question, signature of the pact at the summit is desirable, but in the near future it will not create the single European defence market, including the UK, that some member-states would like to see,' the Centre for European Reform, a think tank, has said ahead of the summit. The fundamental challenge is that European countries, particularly France, are reluctant to relinquish any of their own defence output or jobs for the greater collective good. 'For Europe to be efficient and effective, governments would have to spend defence money on other people's defence industries,' says Anand Menon, director of the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. 'Will the Poles, for instance, with all their new defence money, be willing to plough that into French industry?' Redwood is sceptical of the Europeans' commitment to collectivity, as she questions 'whether Europe has the political will for a shake-up of defence policy beyond some extra German-led spending over the next two or three years'. 'After all, self-sufficiency in defence would require a lot of money and, arguably more importantly, a lot of willpower and collective effort,' she says. Even if they could work together, the EU's 27 countries don't agree on their greater collective strategic interest. Hungary and Slovakia are at best ambivalent on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and their recalcitrance could fetter the EU's ability to power a defence industrial revolution. 'We're talking about a conflict in which two, possibly three, member states seem to be on the wrong side. That's problematic,' Manon says. 'Because those member states aren't onside, then you can't use the EU [to defend against military threats]. And the EU isn't very good at deploying military force anyway. If you can't use the EU, what do you use? In the past, you'd have said Nato, obviously. But the question now is, can you trust the United States enough to use Nato?' Even if the Europeans agreed on the ends, there's still the question of whether they have the means. The Bruegel Institute estimates that the Europeans will need to stump up as much as €250bn a year in extra spending if they are to field the manpower, material and manufacturing capability required to fend off the likes of Russia. But government budgets are already stretched as the pandemic and the Ukraine-sparked energy crisis left deficit and debt levels unsustainably high. Every extra euro spent on defence will have to come from a frontline service like health or education, raising awkward questions politically. Even some governments that oppose Vladimir Putin's invasion, like those of Spain and Italy, might struggle to sell that trade-off to their electorates, Redwood says. And if Trump does manage to pull off a Ukraine peace deal that puts Putin back in his box, the impetus for a big military revolution could fade. But Byrne reckons the Europeans will pull together, with Britain tagging along for the ride. 'I think the political will is actually going to trump the bureaucratic inertia that is still there,' he says. 'There are obviously countries like France which have raised concerns and objections. But overwhelmingly, the political consensus, especially in Scandinavia and the Baltics, as well as along Nato's eastern flank, is really clear. 'And they see the UK as an absolutely core supplier of what Nato needs to win wars in the future.'
Saudi Gazette
06-05-2025
- Politics
- Saudi Gazette
UK visa applications for some nationalities could be restricted
LONDON — Visa applications from nationalities thought most likely to overstay and claim asylum in the UK could be restricted under a new government crackdown. Under Home Office plans, first reported in the Times, people from countries such as Pakistan, Nigeria and Sri Lanka may find it more difficult to come to the UK to work and study. Ministers believe there is a particular problem with those who come to the UK legally on work or study visas and then lodge a claim for asylum - which if granted, would allow them to stay in the country permanently. A Home Office spokesperson said: "Our upcoming Immigration White Paper will set out a comprehensive plan to restore order to our broken immigration system." It is not clear which nationalities are most likely to overstay their visas as the Home Office has not published statistics on exit checks for people on visas since 2020, due to a review into the accuracy of the figures. Many exits from the UK can go unrecorded, meaning those without a departure record were not necessarily still in the country. Prof Jonathan Portes, a senior fellow at the academic think tank UK in a Changing Europe, said the impact that restricting visas would have on the number of asylum applications was "likely to be quite small". "I think the impact here is not designed primarily to be about numbers overall, it's designed to be about reducing asylum claims which are perceived to be abusive," he told BBC Radio 4's Today program. "When you have someone who comes here ostensibly as a student and then switches quickly to the asylum route... that is an abuse of the system - the government is trying to reduce that." Latest Home Office figures show that more than 108,000 people claimed asylum in the UK last year — the highest level since records began in 1979. In total, 10,542 Pakistani nationals claimed asylum - the most of any nationality. Some 2,862 Sri Lankan nationals and 2,841 Nigerian nationals claimed asylum in the same period. The latest figures for 2023/24 also show there were 732,285 international students in the UK, with most coming from India (107,480) and China (98,400). The number of UK work and study visas dropped in 2024, compared to the year before. Since becoming prime minister last year, Sir Keir Starmer has promised to reduce both illegal and legal migration - but has previously declined to offer a net migration target, saying an "arbitrary cap" has had no impact in the past. Labour's plans to reduce migration include making it a criminal offense to endanger the lives of others at sea, to target small boat crossings, and cutting demand for overseas hires by developing training plans for sectors that are currently reliant on migrant workers. Sir Keir has criticized the previous Conservative government, saying it failed to deliver lower net migration numbers "by design, not accident". Net migration — the number of people coming to the UK, minus the number leaving - hit a record 906,000 in the year to June 2023, and then fell to 728,000 in the year to June 2024. New rules introduced by former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in a bid to reduce migration levels appear to have contributed to the fall. The previous Conservative government increased the minimum salary for skilled overseas workers wanting to come to the UK from £26,200 to £38,700 and banned care workers from bringing family dependants to the UK. Labour was already under pressure to make changes to the immigration system - but that pressure may have grown after Reform UK's successes in last week's local elections. Reform won 677 of around 1,600 seats contested on Thursday across a clutch of mainly Tory-held councils last contested in 2021. In its general election manifesto, Reform said it would implement a freeze on non-essential immigration. Those with certain skills - for example in healthcare - would still be allowed to come to the UK. Reacting to the results last week, Sir Keir said he shared the "sharp edge of fury" felt by voters leaning away from the major parties, arguing that it would spur him on to "go further and faster" in delivering Labour's promised changes to immigration and public services. Enver Solomon, chief executive of the Refugee Council, said that "some people on work or study visas may find their lives at risk because the political situation in their home country has changed", adding that it was right they were "protected from harm and given a fair hearing in the asylum system". Plans to tackle overstaying were already being worked on before the local elections. Full details of government's plans are due to be published in a new immigration white paper later in May. A Home Office spokesperson said: "To tackle abuse by foreign nationals who arrive on work and study visas and go on to claim asylum, we are building intelligence on the profile of these individuals to identify them earlier and faster. "We keep the visa system under constant review and will where we detect trends, which may undermine our immigration rules, we will not hesitate to take action. "Under our plan for change, our upcoming Immigration White Paper will set out a comprehensive plan to restore order to our broken immigration system." — BBC
Yahoo
06-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Visa applications for some nationalities could be restricted
Visa applications from nationalities thought most likely to overstay and claim asylum in the UK could be restricted under a new government crackdown. Under Home Office plans, first reported in the Times, people from countries such as Pakistan, Nigeria and Sri Lanka may find it more difficult to come to the UK to work and study. Ministers believe there is a particular problem with those who come to the UK legally on work or study visas and then lodge a claim for asylum - which if granted, would allow them to stay in the country permanently. A Home Office spokesperson said: "Our upcoming Immigration White Paper will set out a comprehensive plan to restore order to our broken immigration system." It is not clear which nationalities are most likely to overstay their visas as the Home Office has not published statistics on exit checks for people on visas since 2020, due to a review into the accuracy of the figures. Many exits from the UK can go unrecorded, meaning those without a departure record were not necessarily still in the country. Prof Jonathan Portes, a senior fellow at the academic think tank UK in a Changing Europe, said the impact that restricting visas would have on the number of asylum applications was "likely to be quite small". "I think the impact here is not designed primarily to be about numbers overall, it's designed to be about reducing asylum claims which are perceived to be abusive," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. "When you have someone who comes here ostensibly as a student and then switches quickly to the asylum route... that is an abuse of the system - the government is trying to reduce that." Since becoming prime minister last year, Sir Keir Starmer has promised to reduce both illegal and legal migration - but has previously declined to offer a net migration target, saying an "arbitrary cap" has had no impact in the past. Labour's plans to reduce migration include making it a criminal offence to endanger the lives of others at sea, to target small boat crossings, and cutting demand for overseas hires by developing training plans for sectors that are currently reliant on migrant workers. Sir Keir has criticised the previous Conservative government, saying it failed to deliver lower net migration numbers "by design, not accident". Net migration - the number of people coming to the UK, minus the number leaving - hit a record 906,000 in the year to June 2023, and then fell to 728,000 in the year to June 2024. New rules introduced by former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in a bid to reduce migration levels appear to have contributed to the fall. The previous Conservative government increased the minimum salary for skilled overseas workers wanting to come to the UK from £26,200 to £38,700 and banned care workers from bringing family dependants to the UK. Labour was already under pressure to make changes to the immigration system - but that pressure may have grown after Reform UK's successes in last week's local elections. Reform won 677 of around 1,600 seats contested on Thursday across a clutch of mainly Tory-held councils last contested in 2021. In its general election manifesto, Reform said it would implement a freeze on non-essential immigration. Those with certain skills - for example in healthcare - would still be allowed to come to the UK. Reacting to the results last week, Sir Keir said he shared the "sharp edge of fury" felt by voters leaning away from the major parties, arguing that it would spur him on to "go further and faster" in delivering Labour's promised changes to immigration and public services. Plans to tackle overstaying were already being worked on before the local elections. Full details of government's plans are due to be published in a new immigration white paper later in May. A Home Office spokesperson said: "To tackle abuse by foreign nationals who arrive on work and study visas and go on to claim asylum, we are building intelligence on the profile of these individuals to identify them earlier and faster. "We keep the visa system under constant review and will where we detect trends, which may undermine our immigration rules, we will not hesitate to take action. "Under our plan for change, our upcoming Immigration White Paper will set out a comprehensive plan to restore order to our broken immigration system." Additional reporting by Alex Boyd. [BBC] Sign up for our Politics Essential newsletter to keep up with the inner workings of Westminster and beyond.
BBC News
06-05-2025
- Politics
- BBC News
Visa applications for some nationalities could be restricted
Visa applications from nationalities thought most likely to overstay and claim asylum in the UK could be restricted under a new government Home Office plans, first reported in the Times, people from countries such as Pakistan, Nigeria and Sri Lanka may find it more difficult to come to the UK to work and believe there is a particular problem with those who come to the UK legally on work or study visas and then lodge a claim for asylum - which if granted, would allow them to stay in the country permanently.A Home Office spokesperson said: "Our upcoming Immigration White Paper will set out a comprehensive plan to restore order to our broken immigration system." It is not clear which nationalities are most likely to overstay their visas as the Home Office has not published statistics on exit checks for people on visas since 2020, due to a review into the accuracy of the exits from the UK can go unrecorded, meaning those without a departure record were not necessarily still in the Jonathan Portes, a senior fellow at the academic think tank UK in a Changing Europe, said the impact that restricting visas would have on the number of asylum applications was "likely to be quite small"."I think the impact here is not designed primarily to be about numbers overall, it's designed to be about reducing asylum claims which are perceived to be abusive," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme."When you have someone who comes here ostensibly as a student and then switches quickly to the asylum route... that is an abuse of the system - the government is trying to reduce that."Since becoming prime minister last year, Sir Keir Starmer has promised to reduce both illegal and legal migration - but has previously declined to offer a net migration target, saying an "arbitrary cap" has had no impact in the plans to reduce migration include making it a criminal offence to endanger the lives of others at sea, to target small boat crossings, and cutting demand for overseas hires by developing training plans for sectors that are currently reliant on migrant Keir has criticised the previous Conservative government, saying it failed to deliver lower net migration numbers "by design, not accident".Net migration - the number of people coming to the UK, minus the number leaving - hit a record 906,000 in the year to June 2023, and then fell to 728,000 in the year to June rules introduced by former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in a bid to reduce migration levels appear to have contributed to the previous Conservative government increased the minimum salary for skilled overseas workers wanting to come to the UK from £26,200 to £38,700 and banned care workers from bringing family dependants to the UK. Record number of migrants cross Channel in 2025 so farHow migrant workers are saving the NHS from crisisNet migration could push UK population to 72.5m, says ONS Labour was already under pressure to make changes to the immigration system - but that pressure may have grown after Reform UK's successes in last week's local elections. Reform won 677 of around 1,600 seats contested on Thursday across a clutch of mainly Tory-held councils last contested in its general election manifesto, Reform said it would implement a freeze on non-essential immigration. Those with certain skills - for example in healthcare - would still be allowed to come to the to the results last week, Sir Keir said he shared the "sharp edge of fury" felt by voters leaning away from the major parties, arguing that it would spur him on to "go further and faster" in delivering Labour's promised changes to immigration and public to tackle overstaying were already being worked on before the local elections. Full details of government's plans are due to be published in a new immigration white paper later in May.A Home Office spokesperson said: "To tackle abuse by foreign nationals who arrive on work and study visas and go on to claim asylum, we are building intelligence on the profile of these individuals to identify them earlier and faster."We keep the visa system under constant review and will where we detect trends, which may undermine our immigration rules, we will not hesitate to take action."Under our plan for change, our upcoming Immigration White Paper will set out a comprehensive plan to restore order to our broken immigration system."Additional reporting by Alex Boyd.
