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Time of India
04-05-2025
- Science
- Time of India
India–Pakistan nuclear conflict won't just be a border issue: 2019 'Nostradamus' study warns it could starve the world
In 2019, researchers from the University of Colorado and Rutgers University issued a stark warning: a war between India and Pakistan was possible by 2025, and it could go nuclear. Published in Science Advances, the study combined insights from major institutions including the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, Federation of American Scientists, and the Natural Resources Defense Council. Now, in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, 2025, their prediction feels chillingly prescient. #Pahalgam Terrorist Attack India much better equipped to target cross-border terror since Balakot India conducts maiden flight-trials of stratospheric airship platform Pakistan shuts ports for Indian ships after New Delhi bans imports from Islamabad The study aimed not to speculate, but to urge global action. It stressed the need for international agreements like the 2017 UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons to prevent such catastrophes. Using computer simulations, the researchers showed just how quickly a regional conflict could spiral into a global disaster. Nuclear war projections: Tens of millions dead, globally affected According to the study, if India were to use 100 nuclear strategic weapons and Pakistan 150, the immediate death toll could reach 100 million. Another 50 to 125 million might die in the aftermath—through radiation exposure, injuries, famine, and environmental collapse. GIF89a����!�,D; 5 5 Next Stay Playback speed 1x Normal Back 0.25x 0.5x 1x Normal 1.5x 2x 5 5 / Skip Ads by The co-author of the report, Alan Robock of Rutgers University's Department of Environmental Sciences, made the global stakes clear: 'A war like that would threaten not just the areas where bombs would be dropped but the whole world.' Black carbon, lost sunlight, and global famine But it doesn't end with blasts. The research also warned of massive environmental consequences. The detonation of nuclear weapons would likely ignite firestorms, releasing 16 to 36 million tonnes of black carbon into the upper atmosphere. This soot would block sunlight, causing a drop in global temperatures by up to 5°C. Sunlight levels could fall by 35%, and precipitation by 30%. Live Events The knock-on effects? Crops would fail. Ocean ecosystems would suffer. Global food supplies would collapse. The study predicted that plant growth could decrease by up to 30%, while ocean productivity might drop by 15%. These disruptions would linger for a decade, if not longer, as the soot would remain suspended in the upper atmosphere. 2025 Nuclear arsenal estimates raise alarm The researchers also projected the possible growth of both nations' nuclear arsenals by 2025. India's stockpile was estimated to reach 400 to 500 warheads, each capable of destruction similar to the Hiroshima bomb of 1945, which had a yield of 15 kilotonnes. Pakistan's nuclear stockpile was also expected to grow significantly. The fact that both countries are nuclear-armed and within close range of one another only amplifies the risk. Experts have long viewed South Asia as one of the most volatile nuclear flashpoints on the planet. The study didn't just raise alarms—it called for action. It highlighted the 2017 UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons as a vital global instrument. Despite not being signed by nuclear powers like India or Pakistan, the treaty stands as a symbolic and political tool to stigmatise and eventually eliminate nuclear weapons. As tensions between the two neighbours rise again in 2025, the voices of those researchers from 2019 echo louder. Their message was clear then, and even more urgent now: a nuclear war in South Asia would not stay in South Asia. It would touch every life on this planet.
Time of India
03-05-2025
- Science
- Time of India
Nostradamus predicted the year of conflict between India and Pakistan in 2025—did he warn of a nuclear disaster
The potential for a war between India and Pakistan, especially after events such as the Pahalgam terror attack of April 22, 2025, has raised serious concern about the threat of nuclear escalation. To this effect, a 2019 report forebodingly predicted the timing of the war, forecasting 2025 as the year when a potential war could erupt. This delves profoundly into the calamitous consequences of a nuclear war between these two nations, underscoring the global impact a disaster of such magnitude would possess. Nuclear catastrophe between India and Pakistan: Experts warn in groundbreaking study The primary research was done by researchers from the University of Colorado, with the help of Rutgers University, and published in Science Advances. The study collected data and feedback from a diverse set of organizations and experts such as US National Center for Atmospheric Research, Federation of American Scientists, Natural Resources Defense Council, as well as institutions like the University of Texas at Rio Grande and the University of California at Los Angeles. The final aim of the 2019 study was to sound an alarm about the nuclear war potential catastrophe between India and Pakistan. It stressed the need for international conventions that work against such wars, specifically pointing out the 2017 UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. The forecasts of the study were to get everyone to realise how horrible the aftermath of an atomic war would be for not just the South Asian region but the world at large. According to the simulations in the research, Indian and Pakistani nuclear attacks could result in 100 million immediate fatalities. Additionally, another 50 to 125 million could perish from the aftermath, including radiation, injuries, and environmental damage. The research detailed one example of India deploying 100 nuclear strategic weapons and Pakistan deploying 150 and showed how massive the loss of life would be. How nuclear conflict could trigger a global famine crisis In addition to the direct destruction, the study predicted that a nuclear conflict would initiate a global mass starvation phenomenon. This would occur because the nuclear explosions would initiate fires which would release huge quantities of soot and black carbon into the atmosphere. The smoke would obscure sunlight, reducing global temperatures as much as 5 degrees Celsius, destroying agriculture worldwide. A decrease in world precipitation by as much as 30% would further intensify food deficits, resulting in mass famine. One of the authors of the report from Rutgers University's Department of Environmental Sciences, Alan Robock, pointed out that the destruction would not be limited to the targeted cities but would be universal. "A war like that would threaten not just the areas where bombs would be dropped but the whole world," Robock said. India and Pakistan's nuclear inventory growth and its global impact The study also made an estimate of the probable size of India's and Pakistan's nuclear weapons inventories by 2025. It predicted that India's maximum inventory size would be 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by then, with explosive yields equivalent to Hiroshima bombs of World War II, whose weights range between 15 kilotons (15,000 tonnes TNT). The Pakistani stockpile would also see enormous growth, further increasing the risks of a nuclear war in the subcontinent. Maybe the most eye-opening aspect of the study was that it investigated the environmental impact of a nuclear war. The authors calculated that the nuclear explosions would ignite fires that would release between 16 million and 36 million tonnes of soot into the atmosphere. This black carbon would cover the sun and disrupt the Earth's climate system, leading to an effect of nuclear winter. The study warned that plant growth may reduce by up to 30% and ocean productivity by up to 15%. The climatic conditions would persist for a minimum of 10 years because the soot would remain suspended in the atmosphere for a very long period, making it hard to recover. Also Read | Baba Vanga's 2025 predictions: Is the next world war just around the corner - here's what she predicted about the global wars and other crisis Discover everything about astrology at the Times of India , including daily horoscopes for Aries , Taurus , Gemini , Cancer , Leo , Virgo , Libra , Scorpio , Sagittarius , Capricorn , Aquarius , and Pisces .
Euronews
03-03-2025
- Politics
- Euronews
Japan skips UN nuclear arms conference to avoid 'wrong message' over US deterrence
Japan has decided not to attend a United Nations conference on the treaty banning nuclear weapons, as Tokyo feels it might send the "wrong message" regarding US deterrence. Washington's nuclear arsenal remains crucial to the island country's security, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Monday. 'Under the severe security environment, nuclear deterrence is indispensable to defend the people's lives and assets, as well as Japan's sovereignty and peace,' Hayashi told reporters. Japan's presence at the event could 'interfere with our effort in security, peace and safety," he added. The UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, adopted in 2017 and enforced since 2021, was established after a prolonged global campaign to prevent a recurrence of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II. Despite being the only country to have suffered nuclear attacks, Japan has refused to sign the treaty, arguing that its aims are unrealistic without the participation of nuclear-armed states. Hayashi stated that attending as an observer could also undermine Japan's efforts to strengthen the Non-Proliferation Treaty and obstruct nuclear disarmament discussions. However, he did not elaborate on Japan's next steps. Criticism from advocacy groups Japanese officials maintain that they support the goal of a nuclear-free world but argue that Japan must take a pragmatic approach given escalating global tensions. The decision has drawn criticism from atomic bombing survivors and advocacy groups, who accuse the government of making symbolic commitments to disarmament while relying on the US nuclear umbrella. The survivors' organisation, Nihon Hidankyo, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year, has called on the government to attend the conference. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, a defence specialist and an advocate of nuclear deterrence, has campaigned for a more transparent debate on the role of US extended deterrence in the region.
Arab Times
03-03-2025
- Politics
- Arab Times
Japan won't join UN meeting on nuclear weapons ban
TOKYO, March 3, (AP): Japan will not attend a UN conference on the treaty banning nuclear weapons, a top government official in Tokyo said Monday, noting US nuclear deterrence is crucial to the country's security and that its participation would send the "wrong message." Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Japan's national security is the primary reason it will not participate as an observer at the conference, which starts Monday in New York. "Under the severe security environment, nuclear deterrence is indispensable to defend the people's lives and assets, as well as Japan's sovereignty and peace,' Hayashi told reporters. Japan's participation as an observer at the conference would "send a wrong message about the Japanese policy (supporting) nuclear deterrence and interfere with our effort in security, peace and safety.' The UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons was approved in 2017 and went into force in 2021 following a decades-long campaign aimed at preventing a repeat of the US atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of World War II. Japan, despite being the only victim of the nuclear attacks, has refused to sign the treaty, saying its goal is not feasible without the participation of any of the nuclear weapons states. Hayashi said participating as an observer would also interfere with Japan's ongoing effort to gain support for strengthening the non-proliferation treaty and hinder nuclear disarmament. He did not give further details about Japan's next steps. Japanese officials have said they share the ultimate goal of achieving a nuclear-free world but that Japan needs to be realistic amid growing global conflicts. Atomic bombing survivors and their supporters have criticized Japan's government for making a hollow promise while clinging to the US nuclear umbrella. The survivors and their supporters have urged the Japanese government to participate in the conference as an observer amid growing global attention after Nihon Hidankyo, the atomic bombing survivors' grassroots organization, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is a defense expert and vocal supporter of nuclear deterrence who has called for a more open debate about the role of US extended deterrence in the region.
