Latest news with #USAlliance
New York Times
20 hours ago
- Business
- New York Times
Canada Commits Billions in Military Spending to Meet NATO Target
Declaring that Canada is too dependent on the United States for its defense, Prime Minister Mark Carney on Monday committed to having his country meet NATO's spending target this year, seven years ahead of schedule. President Trump and leaders of other allied nations have long criticized Canada for consistently falling well short of NATO's goal of a military budget equal to 2 percent of each member's gross domestic product. Canada's previous government, under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, planned to raise Canada's spending, which is at 1.37 percent, to meet the military alliance's target by 2032. Mr. Carney, speaking in Toronto, said that new geopolitical threats, advances in technology and the fraying of Canada's alliance with the United States demanded an accelerated spending schedule. 'We stood shoulder to shoulder with the Americans throughout the Cold War and in the decades that followed, as the United States played a dominant role on the world stage,' he said. 'Today, that dominance is a thing of the past.' 'It is time for Canada to chart its own path,' he added, 'and to assert itself on the international stage.' Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
South China Morning Post
3 days ago
- Politics
- South China Morning Post
South Korea has a new president. Will it have a different China policy?
South Korea's new progressive president is likely to adopt a more 'prudent' stance on Taiwan than his predecessor and focus on boosting economic ties with Beijing , according to observers. But they also expect continuity in trilateral military cooperation with the US and Japan. Lee Jae-myung was sworn in after winning a snap election held on Tuesday, two months after his predecessor – Yoon Suk-yeol – was impeached and removed over his abrupt declaration of martial law in December. Lee and his progressive Democratic Party of Korea are largely regarded as more friendly towards China and North Korea compared to Yoon and his conservative People Power Party. The power shift has prompted speculation about a potential recalibration in Seoul's foreign policy towards the US and fellow American treaty ally Japan, as well as China and traditional adversary North Korea. . During his 2022 presidential campaign against Yoon , Lee faced criticism for describing US Forces Korea (USFK) as 'occupation forces' 03:17 South Korea's new president Lee Jae-myung vows to fix economy, hold talks with North Korea South Korea's new president Lee Jae-myung vows to fix economy, hold talks with North Korea Under Yoon, Seoul emphasised its commitment to the US alliance and stronger three-way cooperation with Washington and Tokyo in addressing security challenges outside the Korean peninsula. This included expressing concerns about People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
South China Morning Post
3 days ago
- Politics
- South China Morning Post
South Korea has a new president. Will it have a new China policy?
South Korea's new progressive president is likely to adopt a more 'prudent' stance on Taiwan than his predecessor and focus on boosting economic ties with Beijing , according to observers. But they also expect continuity in trilateral military cooperation with the US and Japan. Lee Jae-myung was sworn in after winning a snap election held on Tuesday, two months after his predecessor – Yoon Suk-yeol – was impeached and removed over his abrupt declaration of martial law in December. Lee and his progressive Democratic Party of Korea are largely regarded as more friendly towards China and North Korea compared to Yoon and his conservative People Power Party. The power shift has prompted speculation about a potential recalibration in Seoul's foreign policy towards the US and fellow American treaty ally Japan, as well as China and traditional adversary North Korea. . During his 2022 presidential campaign against Yoon , Lee faced criticism for describing US Forces Korea (USFK) as 'occupation forces' 03:17 South Korea's new president Lee Jae-myung vows to fix economy, hold talks with North Korea South Korea's new president Lee Jae-myung vows to fix economy, hold talks with North Korea Under Yoon, Seoul emphasised its commitment to the US alliance and stronger three-way cooperation with Washington and Tokyo in addressing security challenges outside the Korean peninsula. This included expressing concerns about People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
SBS Australia
4 days ago
- Business
- SBS Australia
Europe, Indonesia or Japan? Can Australia find other allies to rely on if the US disappears?
Donald Trump's comments, in particular, that Canada should become America's 51st state and threatening to abandon European allies over defence spending have raised concerns about the US' reliability. Source: SBS, AAP For decades, the United States has been a reliable ally to Australia, whose protection has helped to ensure peace in the region. But US President Donald Trump's unpredictable and tough treatment of his nation's allies has raised questions about whether Australia can still afford to lean so heavily on America as a security partner. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told reporters the government will make decisions in Australia's national interest and fund the defence capability it needs . The comments came after US defence secretary Pete Hegseth requested Australia increase its defence budget to 3.5 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP) in a conversation with Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last weekend. Australia's defence budget makes up roughly 2 per cent of GDP, which the government plans to increase to 2.35 per cent by 2034. While most experts do not believe the US will withdraw from the Indo-Pacific, Trump's actions raise questions about whether Australia should be seeking to cooperate more with other nations. In May, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, raised the prospect of a formal defence agreement between the trading bloc and Australia. In response, Albanese said he would consider the proposal but noted a similar agreement was already in place with other European countries such as Germany. Without the US alliance, Peter Dean, director of foreign policy and defence at the United States Studies Centre at The University of Sydney, says Australia would need to massively increase its defence spending or accept it can't defend its own sovereignty. "If you look at the mismatch between the scale of our territory and the scale of our ability to defend it — it's one of the most glaring mismatches in the world," he says. "[You would] effectively be just hoping for the best." Dean says Australia needs to work hard to maintain its security and that a "community of nations" is necessary to support open and free trade, promote a rules-based international order, and counter the use of coercion, aggression, and military force to achieve political objectives. "If you don't have that community of nations, the example of what's happening in Ukraine is very poignant to everybody," he says. [Russia believes] in a 'might is right' world and they believe in a world where they get to shape those rules and that order, and that is not going to be favourable or in Australia's interests ... or for the majority of states in our region. Dean says Trump is more brutally transactional than previous presidents and an example of the adage in international relations that "you have no friends, you only have common interests". Although it's not always clear what Trump's interests are, Dean believes there's still a common alignment between Australia and the US, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, and in the overall aims and objectives of their security policies. "That simply boils down to — we don't want an Indo-Pacific that's dominated by one particular power — especially China," Dean says. "That is an Australian view clearly articulated in our strategy, and that is a US view, clearly articulated by the US — even under this president." One of the potential problems with a China-dominated region, Dean says, is its desire to "rule by law" and the way in which China would go about setting and enforcing laws. "China particularly wants a hierarchical order where it sits on top and everyone else sits underneath," he says. In contrast, Australia and other like-minded countries support a "rule of law" system in which a community of nations jointly sets the rules through treaties, such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. But Sam Roggeveen, the director of the international security program at the Lowy Institute, says the US has done very little to address China's dramatic military modernisation since the end of the Cold War. No matter who's in charge in the US, I don't think that will rescue Australia from having to think much more independently about its security. "The harsh truth for Australia and for other allies in the region is that the Americans aren't going to do the heavy lifting for us, and want us to do it ourselves." Dean says the alliance with the US is critical for national security, and forming an agreement with other countries would be very difficult. A strategic alliance involves countries committing to help each other out during a crisis, or to act in accord to address a common threat. This would preferably be set out in a treaty. Australia has an alliance with the US and New Zealand, but despite being part of the British Commonwealth, it does not have a formal agreement with the United Kingdom. Given the geographical distance, Dean believes military support from the UK would likely depend on what other conflicts are happening in its part of the world. When it comes to international alliances, arguably the most important is NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), which commits Europe and North America to protecting each other from any threat. Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at The Australian National University, says there are three crucial elements to establish in alliances. Firstly, there must be clear interests in common. Secondly, the parties must articulate some shared values or political will to provide a foundation for trust. "If their security is threatened, then you have interests engaged," he says. And there must also be mutual capability. "There's not much point being an ally of someone if you bring nothing to the table and they bring everything," he says. Dean says no other state can replace the size, power and influence of the US, which is the world's number one military power. Dean says the US — by partnering with South Korea, Australia, Japan and other states — can aggregate enough power to balance China's influence and there is no "ready-made state" that could easily replace it. Without the US, Medcalf says China would likely seek to dominate countries one by one and break any alliance-like relationships. Even if Australia did more for its own defence, there would still be a good argument for maintaining a close relationship with the US because its military technology is among, if not the best in the world. But Roggeveen says Australia has to accept the US alliance is going to become less important over time. "With that in mind, we have to look geographically much closer to home," he says. While forming a new alliance may prove difficult, Medcalf says it would be possible for Australia to build coalitions with other nations to discourage things like coercive behaviour if there was some degree of confidence the US would still back them up. "It's really about using strategic partnership to make ourselves stronger, rather than building a kind of alliance where we expect to be standing shoulder to shoulder in war," he says. Australia is already part of several small groupings of nations with common interests in the Indo-Pacific, such as The Quad (a diplomatic partnership among the US, India, Japan and Australia) and AJUS (a trilateral partnership among Australia, Japan and the US). Defence cooperation has deepened via AJUS, while the security partnership AUKUS, which exists between Australia, the UK and the US, has laid the groundwork for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines and other advanced capabilities. Australia has also entered into limited bilateral agreements with Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, Singapore and others. Medcalf, who is undertaking nationwide consultations to understand Australian attitudes to security, says most of these countries have no prospect of being treaty allies of Australia. But partnerships with countries like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Vietnam may be possible. All of these countries, apart from Vietnam, are already American allies. "They have different levels of capability that they would bring to the table," he says. "But the ultimate question is how much risk are we all going to take for each other?" Due to the number of member states that would need to agree to it, Medcalf suspects an agreement with the EU would likely be quite vague in its language and commitment. It may focus on increased technology sharing, access to defence industry resources and possibly some intelligence sharing. There could also be some aspirational statements about the rules-based order, or the intent to discourage and oppose aggressive action. "But it would fall far short of anything resembling a treaty commitment," Medcalf says. Dean agrees it's more likely Australia and the EU would support each other diplomatically to uphold rules and standards both in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. Medcalf points out Australia and many northern European countries share common values, including freedom of expression, the rule of law and secularism in politics. "[Australia's political values] are much closer to countries like Denmark, Sweden and Finland than to any of our neighbours except New Zealand," he says. Australia has previously manufactured a Norwegian-designed naval strike missile and German-designed armoured fighting vehicles. The EU could offer access to other sophisticated capabilities such as warships, drones and sensors. "The risk is obviously an expectation that Australia becomes more involved in Europe security problems ... obviously that's about confronting Russia," he says. While Medcalf believes Australia should be helping countries like Ukraine to defend themselves, there are limitations. What we shouldn't be doing is ever raising the expectation that we could be a frontline military actor on the other side of the world. Medcalf says Europe is in a different region to Australia, and it would be difficult to deploy troops or aircraft to each other's front lines. But Europe is highly trade-dependent and large countries like Germany and France, in particular, have an interest in maintaining the security of shipping in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, he says, adding that a significant number of shipping companies are also European. Roggeveen says countries in Europe and other parts of Asia are so far away they are never going to share the same vital interests as Australia. But Indonesia's interests are largely the same as Australia's, given they are neighbours. He says Indonesia is also predicted to be a great power by the middle of the century and likely the fourth or fifth biggest economy in the world. "We've never had a great power on our doorstep before, and we want Indonesia to be on our side when that happens," he says. "We have no more important relationship than Indonesia just to our north," he told ABC's 7.30 show. Other experts are sceptical about the potential for a quasi-alliance with Indonesia. While Medcalf agrees Australia should do more with Indonesia — including to help strengthen its navy and air force, and its ability to monitor what's happening in its waters — he notes its policy is to be "friends to all, enemies to none". "Which sounds great but in practice means that Indonesia is working very hard to be as neutral as it can be in future crisis situations." He says Indonesia has not been willing to speak out about China's behaviour in the South China Sea and doesn't have the capability to help Australia build its own defence technology base. Australia also has to accept that China already has a strong influence in Indonesia, he says. "If you're looking for a country that can partly fill the gap that the US may leave — I'd be looking to Japan before Indonesia. But if Indonesia ends up getting closer to our point of view, that would be wonderful," he says. Medcalf says some experts already characterise Japan's relationship with Australia as a quasi-alliance, and it is the most likely country to form an actual alliance with Australia, although the chances of this happening in the short term remain unlikely. He says both Japan and Australia share a strong belief in a rules-based system, and have different strengths they could bring to the table. They need the resources that we have. We need their technology, we need their investment. Medcalf doesn't think Japan's peace constitution — put in place at the end of World War Two to maintain its military for defensive purposes only — would be an impediment because politicians have been reinterpreting it over the last 20 years or so. "Japan is already moving away from 1 per cent, to 2 per cent of GDP, as its military budget," he says, adding that Japanese forces are increasingly training in Australia. However, Dean believes legal and cultural barriers still make it unlikely Japan will form an alliance with Australia. "But I think if the region was to have some type of strategic shock, or it was to really start to deteriorate, that would drive that alignment even closer together," he says. Medcalf says Vietnam is very good at maintaining a balanced relationship with China because it knows how to stand up to China, while also keeping the peace. "They've been doing both for about 1,000 years," he says. "[Vietnam] can defend itself, but it can also do diplomacy well." However, Medcalf says the Southeast Asian country would be very reluctant to enter into a treaty-like commitment with Australia, although there is potential for more cooperation in areas such as military training. Singapore has long been a valuable diplomatic partner for Australia and already cooperates on military training and exchanging information, Medcalf says. "But Singapore is ultimately a very self-interested and neutral country and I think we would work with them as much as we could without the expectation that either would actually take a risk on the other's behalf." He says he would put Malaysia in a similar camp. South Korea is a militarily significant country because it has a lot of capability, Medcalf says. "They now export defence equipment to Europe," he says. "South Korea is one of the few countries in the world that is genuinely able to do rapid military manufacturing at scale." But the problem is it's overwhelmingly focused on defending itself against North Korea. "Yes, they're slightly concerned about ensuring that China doesn't dominate the region. Yes, they're a US ally but they would probably be reluctant to project much further beyond the peninsula," he says. Medcalf says South Korea also has quite deep-seated political problems domestically, and its politics can be unpredictable. Medcalf says Australia's relationship with India has advanced significantly over the past decade — with each country's navy training together frequently and sharing information. Both countries' air forces jointly monitor the Indian Ocean. "[India] will probably be — within the next few decades — one of the three biggest powers in the world militarily, alongside the US and China." However, Medcalf says India is diplomatically very neutral and greatly values its autonomy. They're not going to be forming permanent alliance-like relationships with anyone. While India does not want to witness China dominate the Indian Ocean and would likely align with other countries in the region to balance against China, Medcalf says if it came to war, there would be only very limited circumstances under which it would get involved. "I guess they would certainly contribute to patrolling the Indian Ocean and potentially limiting China's ability to operate there, but I don't think India is going to be taking a lot of risk on behalf of others," he says. India may also expect other countries to come to its aid if there were a conflict with China on its border. "And that would be something that I think would be difficult for other countries to think about." The Philippines is one of the countries that claim parts of the South China Sea, which has led to clashes with China over issues such as fishing rights, islands and territories, Medcalf says. "The Philippines has traditionally been quite a weak military power but they're beginning to modernise their forces and their location is strategically very important — they're right at the heart of the sea lanes of Asia." While the Philippines is an American treaty ally, under former president Rodrigo Duterte, it became closer to China. Medcalf says it would make sense for Australia to have the Philippines as a partner, but caution is needed when considering the limits of its power and whether another change in government could alter dynamics. It's yet another example of how it's a nice idea to try and stitch all of these relationships together into something larger but without the Americans involved somewhere along the line, it still becomes quite flimsy. Like Australia, Canada is a middle-sized power but in some ways, it is militarily weaker. It's also a long way away. But Medcalf points out Canada is technically part of the broader Pacific region as its western coastline borders the Pacific Ocean. It's also surprisingly active in the region — supporting the UN efforts in East Asia to prevent illegal trade with North Korea and the smuggling of parts or precursors for weapons of mass destruction. "There's something to work with there but all of this stuff is only going to work if it's more than simply putting all your reliance on one country — they would be a small part of a much bigger puzzle."
CNA
30-05-2025
- Business
- CNA
Analysis: South Korea's presidential election set to reshape policies for key US ally
SEOUL: South Korean liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung is projected to win next week's snap presidential election, a result that could reorient a major US ally on policies ranging from China to nuclear weapons and North Korea. Former President Yoon Suk Yeol, a conservative who was impeached and removed from office over December's short-lived martial law decree, had gone all-in on supporting Washington, taking a hard line on North Korea, and repairing ties with Japan. Lee, who narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 election, has long taken a more sceptical view of the US alliance, vowed to engage with North Korea, and was bitterly critical of Yoon's rapprochement with Japan. He made waves on the campaign trail by saying South Korea should keep its distance from any China-Taiwan conflict, later insisting he is not pro-Beijing. Tacking toward the centre in an effort to win moderates, however, Lee has taken to praising the US alliance and said he would continue trilateral cooperation with Japan and the US, seen in Washington as pivotal to countering China and North Korea. "The Yoon administration claimed to uphold democratic values in foreign policy while pursuing authoritarian tactics domestically," Wi Sung-lac, a lawmaker who advises Lee on foreign policy, told Reuters. "In contrast, if the Democratic Party wins, the incoming government will be prepared to genuinely defend democracy and lead a foreign policy grounded in those values, proven by its long history of struggle for democratic rights in Korea." SCEPTICISM IN WASHINGTON Some in Washington wonder if Lee's pivot on a range of issues will last, and how his views might clash with US President Donald Trump, who has slapped South Korea with tariffs, pressed it to pay more for the 28,500 troops stationed there, and upped competition with China. "Great scepticism remains that Lee would actually stray from his previous advocacy for conciliation with China and North Korea, nationalist antagonism toward Japan, and more independence in its alliance with the United States," said Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst now at Washington's Heritage Foundation. While this pivot has expanded Lee's appeal, "it also raises concerns about future policy and governing consistency," Darcie Draudt-Vejares, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in a report. Much has changed in the three years since South Korea's last liberal president, Moon Jae-in, left office, after overseeing a trade and political clash with Tokyo over historical disputes related to Japan's 1910 to 1945 occupation of the Korean peninsula, and an ultimately failed attempt to broker lasting diplomatic deals between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. One Western diplomat, who asked not to be named, said China's assertiveness, doubts about US commitments, and North Korea's new cooperation with Russia means Lee may be unlikely to return to some of his earlier stances. Lee has vowed to cooperate with Japan on security, technology, culture and environment, but he criticised Yoon for giving too many concessions with little in return. "While Lee may not actively walk back Yoon's reconciliation with Japan ... his party will react more strongly to any perceived slight from Japan over history issues," Klingner said. Yoon and his conservatives raised the prospect of redeploying American nuclear weapons to the peninsula, or even developing their own arsenal to counter the North. But Lee has rejected those calls. TRUMP RELATIONS In an interview with TIME released on Thursday (May 29), Lee praised Trump's "outstanding skills" for negotiation. He also compared himself to the American president, saying both survived assassination attempts and seek to protect the interests of their countries. "I believe the South Korea-US alliance is the foundation of South Korea's diplomacy," Lee said at a debate on Tuesday. Still, he listed US protectionism as a challenge and said he would not "unnecessarily" antagonise China and Russia. He is a savvy politician who will take a calculated approach to dealing with Trump, and given the lack of clarity on a number of Trump's policies on China and other areas, it is not certain that Lee will clash with the American president, said Moon Chung-in, a former foreign policy adviser to the previous liberal administration. "But if President Trump pushes too many demands, unlike other leaders in South Korea, Lee may not accommodate them all, which could be a source of friction," Moon said. North Korea is one area where Lee may see eye-to-eye with Trump. It may also be one of the toughest issues to tackle. Lee says he will reopen hotlines with North Korea and seek to engage with Pyongyang to lower tensions. However, Pyongyang has amassed a larger missile arsenal, forged a wide-ranging security pact with Russia, and taken the historic step of officially rejecting eventual unification with the South, labelling Seoul a main enemy.
