Latest news with #USDCHF
Globe and Mail
22-05-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
USDCHF Resumes Its Bearish Trend
As expected, USDCHF broke sharply lower few weeks back, clearly making lower highs and lower swing lows which is an impulsive trend because of no overlaps. We even saw pair falling below 2023 lows, before market made a new turn up now, which so far is in three waves. So we see this as wave 4 that is turning down from the 38.2% resistance, at the area of a former wave four. Now that is breaking below channel support line, it confirms further weakness for fifth wave. For a detailed view and more analysis like this, you may want to watch below our latest recording of a live webinar streamed on May 19 2025:
Malay Mail
29-04-2025
- Business
- Malay Mail
Octa Broker Analysis: Why the U.S. Dollar is Struggling Amid Global Trade Turmoil
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 29 April 2025 – The U.S. Dollar, the world's reserve currency and the ultimate safe-haven asset, is now the world's worst-performing major currency in 2025. Octa Broker explains why. The historical role of the U.S. dollar as the world's leading safe-haven currency is under threat. Despite rising macroeconomic uncertainty, investors are fleeing the U.S. dollar, defying conventional safe-haven flows. Greenback's rapid depreciation over the past weeks has fuelled speculation over the loss of confidence in its safe-haven status. With USDCHF trading news multi-year low, Octa Broker analyzes if we are in the midst of dramatic regime change in markets and explains why the U.S. dollar is struggling amid global trade U.S. dollar (USD),or, as it is often informally referred to, has long occupied a rather exclusive position in global finance. Ever since the end of World War II and the establishment of the Bretton Woods monetary system, the greenback has played a crucial role in facilitating cross-border transactions and smoothing international trade flows, in addition to serving as a primary reserve currency for central banks around the world. Being the official currency of the world's largest economy, the United States, has certainly helped the dollar maintain its dominant position. Indeed, the sheer size of the U.S. economy, its deep and liquid financial markets, strong private property rights and the rule of law enshrined in the U.S. Constitution, and last but not least, the unrivalled power of the U.S. military, made the dollar the most trusted global currency. As a result, the greenback became what market participants call 'a safe-haven currency', a refuge for investors during times of macroeconomic uncertainty or market turmoil. Most recently, however, the instability in global financial markets triggered by rising trade tariffs and exacerbated by fears of a global recession seems to have upended this narrative, undermining the dollar's established U.S. dollar has been depreciating almost relentlessly since mid-January. In just three and a half months, the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the greenback relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc, lost more than 10% in value (from 13 January high to 21 April low). On 11 April, it breached the critical 100.00 level, and although it has since increased slightly, it remains by far the worst-performing currency among other major currencies this year so far. This decline has raised an important question: Is the U.S. dollar losing its safe-haven status, or is it merely a temporary catalyst for the dollar's slide is rooted in the escalating trade tensions, particularly the aggressive tariff policies enacted by U.S. President Donald Trump. In recent weeks, the U.S. imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with much steeper duties imposed on key trading partners like China, which, in turn, retaliated with its own 125% levies on U.S. goods. These moves have stoked fears of a global recession, as international supply chains may get disrupted with potentially devastating consequences for the world economy. Historically, such uncertainty would bolster the dollar, as investors seek the safety of U.S. assets. However, this time around, the greenback is faltering, while alternative safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc (CHF) and Japanese yen (JPY) are gaining Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker, says that the U.S. dollar's recent weakness is driven by a diversification shift among investors into alternative safe-haven currencies, motivated by risk-hedging and fears over the growth prospects of the U.S. on April 21, USDCHF dropped below the 0.80500 mark, the level unseen in almost 14 years, while USDJPY was hovering near the critical 140.00 area, a drop below which will open the way towards new multi-year lows. Significant shifts in capital flow allocations have prompted some analysts to conclude that the U.S. dollar is facing a crisis of confidence. However, Octa analysts have a different view and believe that the current situation doesn't reflect a broad erosion of investors' long-term trust in the U.S. dollar. Kar Yong Ang said: 'The issue isn't so much a fundamental loss of faith in the U.S. dollar's long-term prospects. What we are witnessing right now is a dramatic, yet logical response to the probable economic implications of Donald Trump's trade policies. You have an administration, which is effectively re-structuring the global trade order, that does not conceal its dissatisfaction with the Fed and apparently believes in a weak dollar. If you're a foreign investor in the U.S., you simply cannot afford to be unhedged these days. But also, let's not forget that the greenback has been falling from relatively high levels, so a healthy downward correction was long overdue'. In other words, the recent slide in the U.S. dollar is not an unusual phenomenon or an anomaly; it is quite natural and probably a short-term occurrence. In fact, even after an 11% drop in 2025, the greenback is still some 38% above its historical low set in 2008. Furthermore, it is clear that once key global actors adopt more conciliatory diplomatic rhetoric and engage in active trade negotiations, the situation will normalise for the dollar's long-term prospects, its dominant status will likely continue to be challenged, but no single currency can take its crown for now. According to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the U.S. dollar still accounts for nearly 88% of international transactions, and its dominance in Forex markets remains unmatched, with daily trading volumes dwarfing those of the yen or franc. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), more than half (57.8%) of the $12.4 trillion in global foreign exchange reserves were in U.S. dollars. Therefore, while the greenback may not be the automatic refuge it once was, its role as a Forex cornerstone endures for now.___Hashtag: #octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local communities. In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively
Zawya
29-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Octa Broker Analysis: Why the U.S. Dollar is Struggling Amid Global Trade Turmoil
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 29 April 2025 – The U.S. Dollar, the world's reserve currency and the ultimate safe-haven asset, is now the world's worst-performing major currency in 2025. Octa Broker explains why. The historical role of the U.S. dollar as the world's leading safe-haven currency is under threat. Despite rising macroeconomic uncertainty, investors are fleeing the U.S. dollar, defying conventional safe-haven flows. Greenback's rapid depreciation over the past weeks has fuelled speculation over the loss of confidence in its safe-haven status. With USDCHF trading news multi-year low, Octa Broker analyzes if we are in the midst of dramatic regime change in markets and explains why the U.S. dollar is struggling amid global trade turmoil. The U.S. dollar (USD), the buck or the greenback, as it is often informally referred to, has long occupied a rather exclusive position in global finance. Ever since the end of World War II and the establishment of the Bretton Woods monetary system, the greenback has played a crucial role in facilitating cross-border transactions and smoothing international trade flows, in addition to serving as a primary reserve currency for central banks around the world. Being the official currency of the world's largest economy, the United States, has certainly helped the dollar maintain its dominant position. Indeed, the sheer size of the U.S. economy, its deep and liquid financial markets, strong private property rights and the rule of law enshrined in the U.S. Constitution, and last but not least, the unrivalled power of the U.S. military, made the dollar the most trusted global currency. As a result, the greenback became what market participants call 'a safe-haven currency', a refuge for investors during times of macroeconomic uncertainty or market turmoil. Most recently, however, the instability in global financial markets triggered by rising trade tariffs and exacerbated by fears of a global recession seems to have upended this narrative, undermining the dollar's established role. Trade tensions The U.S. dollar has been depreciating almost relentlessly since mid-January. In just three and a half months, the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the greenback relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc, lost more than 10% in value (from 13 January high to 21 April low). On 11 April, it breached the critical 100.00 level, and although it has since increased slightly, it remains by far the worst-performing currency among other major currencies this year so far. This decline has raised an important question: Is the U.S. dollar losing its safe-haven status, or is it merely a temporary setback. The catalyst for the dollar's slide is rooted in the escalating trade tensions, particularly the aggressive tariff policies enacted by U.S. President Donald Trump. In recent weeks, the U.S. imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with much steeper duties imposed on key trading partners like China, which, in turn, retaliated with its own 125% levies on U.S. goods. These moves have stoked fears of a global recession, as international supply chains may get disrupted with potentially devastating consequences for the world economy. Historically, such uncertainty would bolster the dollar, as investors seek the safety of U.S. assets. However, this time around, the greenback is faltering, while alternative safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc (CHF) and Japanese yen (JPY) are gaining ground. Hedging Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker, says that the U.S. dollar's recent weakness is driven by a diversification shift among investors into alternative safe-haven currencies, motivated by risk-hedging and fears over the growth prospects of the U.S. economy. 'We are witnessing a major reallocation of capital. Market participants realise that in a trade war, there are no winners. In the short term, the U.S. economy will face the consequences, and they will not be pretty. Big players with large investments in the U.S. realised they needed to hedge their currency risk, so they moved into the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. Also, higher tariffs are fuelling recession fears, so traders have increased their bets on additional rate cuts by the Fed [Federal Reserve]. That too had a bearish effect on the greenback'. Indeed, on April 21, USDCHF dropped below the 0.80500 mark, the level unseen in almost 14 years, while USDJPY was hovering near the critical 140.00 area, a drop below which will open the way towards new multi-year lows. Significant shifts in capital flow allocations have prompted some analysts to conclude that the U.S. dollar is facing a crisis of confidence. However, Octa analysts have a different view and believe that the current situation doesn't reflect a broad erosion of investors' long-term trust in the U.S. dollar. Kar Yong Ang said: 'The issue isn't so much a fundamental loss of faith in the U.S. dollar's long-term prospects. What we are witnessing right now is a dramatic, yet logical response to the probable economic implications of Donald Trump's trade policies. You have an administration, which is effectively re-structuring the global trade order, that does not conceal its dissatisfaction with the Fed and apparently believes in a weak dollar. If you're a foreign investor in the U.S., you simply cannot afford to be unhedged these days. But also, let's not forget that the greenback has been falling from relatively high levels, so a healthy downward correction was long overdue'. In other words, the recent slide in the U.S. dollar is not an unusual phenomenon or an anomaly; it is quite natural and probably a short-term occurrence. In fact, even after an 11% drop in 2025, the greenback is still some 38% above its historical low set in 2008. Furthermore, it is clear that once key global actors adopt more conciliatory diplomatic rhetoric and engage in active trade negotiations, the situation will normalise immediately. Conclusion As for the dollar's long-term prospects, its dominant status will likely continue to be challenged, but no single currency can take its crown for now. According to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the U.S. dollar still accounts for nearly 88% of international transactions, and its dominance in Forex markets remains unmatched, with daily trading volumes dwarfing those of the yen or franc. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), more than half (57.8%) of the $12.4 trillion in global foreign exchange reserves were in U.S. dollars. Therefore, while the greenback may not be the automatic refuge it once was, its role as a Forex cornerstone endures for now. ___ Disclaimer: This content is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to engage in any investment activity. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation, or individual needs. Any action you take based on this content is at your sole discretion and risk. Octa and its affiliates accept no liability for any losses or consequences resulting from reliance on this material. Trading involves risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Use your expertise wisely and evaluate all associated risks before making an investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Availability of products and services may vary by jurisdiction. Please ensure compliance with your local laws before accessing them. Hashtag: #octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local communities. In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively Octa
Yahoo
17-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The U.S. dollar's role as the de facto global reserve currency is looking increasingly uncertain
Volatility that gripped global markets over the past two weeks may be subsiding, at least for now. But some on Wall Street say that President Donald Trump's aggressive approach to rolling out his tariff agenda might trigger lasting consequence for U.S. markets. Specifically, the dollar's status as a reliable 'safe haven' has been tarnished, and its role as the de facto global reserve currency has been looking increasingly uncertain. My husband will inherit $180K. I think we should invest the money. He wants to pay off his $168K mortgage. Who's right? Dow sees first 'death cross' since 2023 — but here's the good news With fear gauge echoing 2022 turmoil, here's a new theory on when Trump will change course Wall Street predicts a 10% stock rebound by the end of 2025. Why investors shouldn't buy the hype just yet. Trump is furious that Fed won't cut interest rates like ECB. Here's why Powell won't budge. Signs of growing dissatisfaction with the dollar can be seen in the breakdown of its longstanding correlation with other markets. Steve Englander, head of global G-10 foreign-exchange research and North America macroeconomic strategy at Standard Chartered, highlighted the pattern, which has emerged since Trump's April 2 'liberation day' tariff announcement, in the chart below. 'The market clearly now has doubts,' Englander told MarketWatch via email. When investors start losing confidence in stocks and bonds, many often seek shelter in the global currency market. According to data from the Bank for International Settlements, the market for foreign currencies has become far more liquid than markets for stocks and bonds, with a daily turnover of $7.5 trillion as of 2022. Investors can shift in and out of currency positions 24 hours a day, except on weekends. For decades, the dollar, the Swiss franc and Japanese yen were among the most popular options for investors seeking calmer ports in volatile markets. But while the yen USDJPY, franc USDCHF and euro EURUSD have shot higher over the past few weeks, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, a popular gauge of the dollar's value against its main currency rivals, sank to its lowest level in three years. By comparison, the Swiss franc recently climbed to its strongest level in 14 years. The latest selloff wasn't the first time that global confidence in the dollar has been challenged, said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. There was 'a lot of consternation' against the greenback during the early days of the financial crisis, beginning around mid-2007, Wizman said. Investors initially viewed the mortgage-bond meltdown as a uniquely American problem. However, by the time the European debt crisis was triggering bailouts in 2011, confidence in the greenback had been restored. This time, things feel different, Wizman said. Instead of shoring up confidence in the buck, Trump's embrace of tariffs seems intended to undermine a system that Washington previously pioneered. The policy shake-up not only threatens the dollar's status as a safe haven during times of market stress, it also could erode the dollar's status as the de facto global currency, Wizman said. That could unleash a host of negative consequences, including higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government and consumers. 'During the [financial crisis], there wasn't a movement in the U.S. to dismantle the international trade system or the international financial system. We had a financial shock, but if anything, the U.S. policymakers were proactive in trying to save the system, including through the use of diplomacy,' Wizman said. 'Now there's this perception that not only have the motivations changed, but the methodologies have changed. It speaks to a U.S. that is no longer the underwriter of its own system. Instead, the U.S. is going about disassembling that system in a non-diplomatic and abrupt way.' Any shift away from a system that places the dollar at the center of global commerce likely won't happen overnight, said Atul Bhatia, a fixed-income portfolio strategist at RBC Wealth Management. 'The network effects are strong,' he said. By some measures, the world has been shifting away from its dependence on the dollar for decades. Data from the International Monetary Fund show the dollar's share of global central-bank reserves has been shrinking since the late 1990s. However, its dominance in trade remains largely undiminished. According to data from Swift, an international interbank payments network, the dollar remains involved in nearly half of all global transactions. The dollar snapped a five-day losing streak on Tuesday. The ICE dollar index was up 0.5% around the time that the closing bell rang out on Wall Street. Still, the buck has fallen by more than 9% from its 52-week high on Jan. 13. Given its rapid shift lower, Bhatia said the buck might be due for a near-term bounce. After that, it will likely continue to weaken. 'There could be some tailwinds for the dollar here,' he said. 'But longer term, we think that folks are going to be looking toward their own markets and their own regions.' Given the degree of foreign holdings of U.S. assets, like stocks and bonds, this shift could have far-reaching consequences for Wall Street and Main Street savers alike. I'm administrator of my sister's estate. Her bank won't tell me the names of her beneficiaries. Is that legal? The day before Good Friday is often a great day for the stock market. Here's how today is shaping up. I held power of attorney for my late brother. Can I withdraw money from his bank account to give to his favorite charity? 'The whole thing feels predatory': My grandma, 97, pays $170 a month for a $10,000 life-insurance policy. Should we stop payments? Americans are 'doom buying' coffee, olive oil and soap. What's the one thing I should stockpile to avoid tariff price hikes? Sign in to access your portfolio
