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Russia Today
26-03-2025
- Business
- Russia Today
Western support won't secure victory for Kiev
Western military aid to Kiev and sanctions against Russia cannot shift the balance of power in the Ukraine conflict, according to the US Intelligence Community's 2025 Annual Threat Assessment. The intelligence community's official coordinated evaluation of an array of threats lists Russia, China, North Korea and Iran as countries which represent a challenge to US interests. Moscow holds the advantage on the battlefield, having adapted to outside efforts to assist Ukraine, the report's authors explain. The 'grinding war of attrition' is expected to further weaken Kiev, 'regardless of any US or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow.' While the conflict has taken a significant toll in terms of manpower, the assessment notes that it has also afforded Moscow 'a wealth of lessons regarding combat against Western weapons and intelligence in a large-scale war.' This experience probably will challenge future US defense planning, including against other adversaries with whom Moscow is sharing those lessons learned. Russia has proven to be 'adaptable and resilient' during what it views as a Western proxy war, enhancing its military capabilities across several domains, including unmanned systems, electronic warfare, and the integration of cyber operations with conventional military maneuvers, the report explains. Read more Russia and US agree list of energy facilities for truce with Ukraine – Kremlin It warns that Western efforts to undermine the Russian economy 'have accelerated its investments in alternative partnerships and use of various tools of statecraft to offset US power, with China's backing and reinforcement.' Beijing considers the US use of unilateral sanctions illegal under international law and rooted in a 'Cold War mentality.' The US assessment states that major non-Western nations are poised to align with Russia in order to pursue policies that challenge American dominance, such as de-dollarization. The continuation of the Ukraine conflict risks unintentional escalation, the document cautions. Russia is prepared for such scenarios, armed with a substantial strategic arsenal that includes both conventional and nuclear weapons, as well as cyber-warfare and anti-satellite operations capabilities. 'Russia's air and naval forces remain intact, with the former being more modern and capable' than at the start of direct hostilities, the report states. The US intelligence community posits that both Moscow and Kiev may have reasons to avoid a hasty resolution on unfavorable terms. Russian President Vladimir Putin perceives that 'positive battlefield trends allow for some strategic patience,' while Ukraine's Vladimir Zelensky likely fears that a clear defeat could 'prompt domestic backlash.'
Korea Herald
26-03-2025
- Politics
- Korea Herald
NK leader has 'no intention' of negotiating away nukes, seeks 'tacit' nuclear power recognition: US assessment
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has no intention of negotiating away his regime's nuclear and other "strategic" weapons programs, a US threat report said Tuesday, as a top intelligence official viewed Pyongyang as seeking at least "tacit" recognition as a nuclear power. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence released the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, as DNI Tulsi Gabbard said North Korea may be ready to carry out another nuclear test "on short notice" and continue intercontinental ballistic missile tests to show its negotiation leverage. The assessment came as US President Donald Trump has voiced his openness to resuming dialogue with Kim amid speculation that Trump could focus on reducing threats from Pyongyang rather than on ridding it of its nuclear arms despite his stated pursuit of the "complete" denuclearization of North Korea. "Kim has no intention of negotiating away his strategic weapons programs, which he perceives as a guarantor of regime security and national pride, because they threaten the homeland, US forces in the region, and US allies like South Korea and Japan," the assessment report said. Last year's edition of the report said that Kim "almost certainly" has no intentions of negotiating away his nuclear program. This year's report also pointed out that Russia is increasingly supporting the North's nuclear status in exchange for Pyongyang's support for Moscow's war against Ukraine. Speaking at the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Gabbard highlighted Pyongyang's adherence to its nuclear program. "North Korea is probably prepared to conduct another nuclear test on short notice and continues to flight test ICBMs to demonstrate their increasing capabilities as leverage in future negotiations," she said in her opening remarks. Seoul and Washington have shared the view that Pyongyang has completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test, while awaiting a political decision to go ahead. The recalcitrant regime conducted a total of six underground nuclear experiments from 2006-2017. Gabbard said that the North's leader is pursuing stronger strategic and conventional capabilities that can target US forces and allies in the region, as well as the US mainland, to bolster his country's leverage and stature, defend his regime and achieve "at least tacit recognition as a nuclear weapons power." The threat report underscored the US intelligence community's concerns over a deepening North Korea-Russia alignment, backed by the "comprehensive strategic partnership" treaty that Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed in June last year. The treaty calls for one party to provide military aid to the other in the event of an armed invasion -- a pledge that effectively revived the two countries' Cold War-era military alliance. "Kim's newly cemented strategic partnership with Russia is yielding financial benefit, diplomatic support, and defense cooperation. The partnership with Moscow also helps reduce Pyongyang's reliance on Beijing," it said. "North Korea's advancing strategic weapons capabilities and increasing access to revenue are enabling Kim's longstanding goals of securing international acceptance as a nuclear power, reducing US military presence on the Korean Peninsula, expanding state control over the North's economy, and blocking foreign influence." The report warned that in return for its munitions supplies to Russia, North Korea is positioned to gain technical expertise for its weapons developments, which could "accelerate" the North's weapons testing and deployment efforts. In addition, the report said the North Korean leader will threaten to use force when he perceives US and allied actions as challenging the North's sovereignty, undermining his power or aiming to curb his nuclear and missile ambitions. "Kim could escalate to more lethal asymmetric activities if he judged North Korea's efforts at deterrence were not working and he needed to send a stronger message," it said. "He also could resort to these lethal activities if he believed doing so would intimidate South Korea or the United States into changing its policies to be more favorable to the North while minimizing the risk of retaliation." The report raised the possibility of Kim challenging the Northern Limit Line, a de facto inter-Korean sea border. Pyongyang has disputed the NLL as it was unilaterally drawn by the US-led UN Command after the 1950-53 Korean War. "Kim in the past has challenged South Korea's de facto maritime boundary claims and may do so again, raising the prospects of renewed clashes along the NLL," it said. On Russia's war in Ukraine, the report said that continuing the war "perpetuates" strategic risks to the US of unintended escalation to large-scale war, the potential use of nuclear weapons, heightened insecurity among North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies, and a "more emboldened" China and North Korea. Meanwhile, Gabbard noted the intelligence community's concerns over collaboration among China, Russia, Iran and North Korea against US interests. "The IC sees China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea engaging in activities that could challenge US capabilities and interests, especially related to our security and economy," she said.
South China Morning Post
14-02-2025
- Politics
- South China Morning Post
US intelligence needs overhaul to stop Beijing forcibly taking Taiwan: report
Published: 5:05pm, 14 Feb 2025 A Washington-based think tank has proposed a major overhaul of the US Intelligence Community's early-warning capabilities to deter the People's Liberation Army from forcibly taking Taiwan. The proposal written by Scott Berrier, a retired US Army lieutenant-general, and published on Thursday by the Atlantic Council, advocates for a real-time, integrated intelligence system that spans all domains – space, cyber, air, sea and land. 'The side that sees first decides first, and the one that acts first will have the advantage,' Berrier asserts in the brief, emphasising the need for speed and integration in modern warfare. The proposal suggests a fundamental shift in how intelligence is collected, analysed and shared. It urged the 18 independent agencies within the community – which includes the intelligence arms of each branch of the US military as well as bodies such as the CIA, FBI, National Security Agency , Treasury and Department of Energy – to 'overcome silos that hinder national security'. 02:47 Trump won't let Europe turn Uncle Sam into 'Uncle Sucker', US defence chief says Trump won't let Europe turn Uncle Sam into 'Uncle Sucker', US defence chief says Berrier, who is a senior fellow at the think tank's Indo-Pacific Security Initiative, highlights the critical need for a unified, agile approach to intelligence that uses advanced technologies such as AI to enable faster, more accurate decision making. This was crucial because the People's Liberation Army (PLA) used cyber power rather than traditional firepower to pressure Taiwan, the report said.
