Latest news with #USJobsReport
Reuters
3 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Sterling rises against a weaker dollar ahead of UK's spending plan
June 9 (Reuters) - Sterling rose against the dollar on Monday, as the greenback weakened after rallying on Friday on the back of a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report and investors eyed a spending plan by Britain's government later this week. The pound has been helped by a UK economy that has proved relatively resilient to global turbulence. Investors will, however, be monitoring a spending review on Wednesday that will set government departments' budgets up to 2029, covering most of the remainder of the Labour Party's term in office, while concerns persist around Britain's sovereign debt levels, opens new tab. The pound gained about 0.4% to $1.3575. It held steady against the euro , which was only marginally lower at 84.21 pence. More upbeat business surveys and strong first-quarter GDP indicated the UK economy is recovering from a weak end to 2024, but the public remains impatient for improvements to living standards, finance minister Rachel Reeves said on Thursday. This week's April data on UK jobs, growth and industrial output will not show much, said Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale. "I think the economy is vulnerable. The economy will ultimately be sterling's Achilles heel because we have no room for fiscal policy, not much economic momentum." However, decent pay rises on average across the economy have helped, he said. "The UK economy is not growing, but there are people turning up in shops and bars because there's some wage growth. And so I think the world is full of sterling bears who are getting frustrated." Markets effectively fully anticipate that the Bank of England will leave interest rates unchanged on June 19 when it announces the result of its next policy meeting, according to data compiled by LSEG. Many of sterling's gains this year have resulted from broad dollar weakness as investors factor in the risk that President Donald Trump's erratic policymaking could result in a U.S. recession that might spill over to the rest of the world. The pound has appreciated about 8% so far this year against the dollar.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Charting the Global Economy: ECB Nearing End of Rate-Cut Cycle
(Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank is nearing the end of its campaign to lower interest rates after its eighth reduction in a year, according to ECB President Christine Lagarde. Next Stop: Rancho Cucamonga! Where Public Transit Systems Are Bouncing Back Around the World ICE Moves to DNA-Test Families Targeted for Deportation with New Contract US Housing Agency Vulnerable to Fraud After DOGE Cuts, Documents Warn Trump Said He Fired the National Portrait Gallery Director. She's Still There. With the euro-zone economy suffering repeated blows from US tariffs, the deposit rate was lowered by a quarter-point to 2%. India's central bank cut interest rates as well and reduced the cash reserve ratio for banks, providing a major liquidity boost to the economy. Bank of Canada officials, meanwhile, remained sidelined but indicated they stand ready to loosen policy should the economy weaken because of US trade policy. In the US, the closely watched jobs report showed payrolls growth is moderating, rather than abruptly weakening. Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics: Europe The ECB cut its deposit rate a quarter-point to 2% — as predicted by all analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The ECB said inflation 'is currently at around' its target, and reiterated that it's not pre-committing to a particular path for borrowing costs. Officials said in a statement that while trade uncertainty is likely to weigh on business investment and exports, government investment in defense and infrastructure will boost growth later. The euro zone is set to continue its eastward expansion after Bulgaria was deemed ready to become the currency bloc's 21st member. The European Commission recommended on Wednesday that the Black Sea nation of 6.4 million should be allowed to adopt the common currency in 2026. The rift in Russia's two-track economy is becoming wider as businesses tied to President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine thrive and the rest are struggling for resources. Massive spending on the war has left growth increasingly confined to the military-industrial complex, with the imbalance in the economy underscoring how the Kremlin is ready to continue the war, but will potentially need years to return to normalcy even if the fighting stops. NATO member states signed off on the military alliance's most ambitious military ramp-up since the Cold War as leaders closed in on an agreement to ratchet up spending at a summit later this month. The summit, which planners have limited to a single working session focused solely on the spending target, will also involve delicate diplomacy to win over US President Donald Trump, who has made the 5% a key demand to reduce European reliance on American military power. US US job growth moderated in May and the prior months were revised lower, indicating employers are cautious about growth prospects as they weigh the Trump administration's economic policy. However, the 139,000 increase in payrolls, which was slightly above expectations, helped alleviate concerns of a more-rapid deterioration in labor demand. The US trade deficit narrowed in April by the most on record on the largest-ever plunge in imports, illustrating an abrupt end to the massive front-loading of goods by some companies ahead of higher tariffs. Asia China's manufacturing sector had its worst slump since September 2022, according to a private survey, as higher tariffs took a toll on smaller exporters despite a truce in the trade war with the US. Thursday's offering of Japanese government bonds points to a general lack of appetite for longer-maturity debt that is afflicting markets from Japan to Europe and the US. Several auctions of longer tenor Japanese bonds in recent weeks have met shaky demand, with the market flashing a warning that authorities in Tokyo may need to reconsider their issuance plans. Japan's fertility rate declined in 2024 for the ninth consecutive year, reaching another historical low that underscores the immense challenge facing the government as it attempts to reverse the trend in one of the world's most aged societies. Emerging Markets Vietnam's exports and trade surplus rose more than expected in May, signaling companies are racing against the backdrop of talks aimed at averting the US's threatened 46% tariff. As leaders from Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh competed to pledge trillions of dollars for US investments during President Donald Trump's recent visit to the Middle East, bankers behind the scenes quietly agreed: Saudi Arabia isn't the draw it once was. World The OECD slashed its global forecasts for the second time this year, citing the impact of US tariffs. The combination of trade barriers and uncertainty are hitting confidence and holding back investment, according to the organization. In addition to the ECB and Bank of Canada policy meetings, Lesotho, Denmark, India and Russia lowered interest rates. Central bankers in Poland, Kazakhstan and Ukraine held the line on borrowing costs. --With assistance from Nazmul Ahasan, Mia Glass, Tony Halpin, William Horobin, Lucille Liu, Matthew Martin, Adveith Nair, Dinesh Nair, Slav Okov, Andrea Palasciano, Jana Randow, Augusta Saraiva, Zoe Schneeweiss, Mark Schroers, Alexander Weber and Erica Yokoyama. Cavs Owner Dan Gilbert Wants to Donate His Billions—and Walk Again The SEC Pinned Its Hack on a Few Hapless Day Traders. The Full Story Is Far More Troubling YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Is Elon Musk's Political Capital Spent? Trump Considers Deporting Migrants to Rwanda After the UK Decides Not To ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. 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Bloomberg
5 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
UMichigan Economist on "B+" Jobs Report
Betsey Stevenson, University of Michigan, Professor of Economics and Public Policy speaks with Alix Steel and Romaine Bostick about the US jobs report. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
01-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
1 Stock to Buy, 1 Stock to Sell This Week: Broadcom, Lululemon
Trump tariffs, U.S. jobs report, and last batch of earnings will be in focus this week. Broadcom's robust earnings outlook, driven by AI and software growth, makes it a standout buy this week. Lululemon's expected weak results and consumer spending concerns signal a sell. Looking for more actionable trade ideas? Subscribe now and save 45% off InvestingPro! Stocks on Wall Street ended lower on Friday, but the major indices notched a weekly gain and the biggest monthly increase since late 2023 as investors shook off trade war fears. The benchmark S&P 500 jumped 1.9% for the week and 6.2% in May. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 2% on the week and 9.6% for all of May, its biggest monthly gain since November 2023. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.6% during the week and 3.9% for the month. Source: More volatility could be in store this week as investors continue to assess the outlook for the economy, inflation, interest rates and corporate earnings amid President Donald Trump's trade war. Most important on the calendar will be Friday's U.S. employment report for May, which is forecast to show the economy added 130,000 positions. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4.2%. Ahead of the jobs report, the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs will also be closely watched. That will be accompanied by a heavy slate of Fed speakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell. Traders maintained bets that the U.S. central bank would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, as per the Fed Monitor Tool. Source: Elsewhere, on the earnings docket, there are just a handful of corporate results due as the Q1 reporting season draws to a close, including Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD), Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), Dollar General (NYSE:DG), Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE), and Nio (NYSE:NIO). Regardless of which direction the market goes, below I highlight one stock likely to be in demand and another which could see fresh downside. Remember though, my timeframe is just for the week ahead, Monday, June 2 - Friday, June 6. Broadcom, a leading semiconductor and software company with a market cap exceeding $1 trillion, is poised for a breakout week. The primary catalyst is its upcoming earnings report, expected to showcase robust financial performance. The company's fiscal Q2 report is scheduled to come out on Thursday at 4:15PM ET. Market participants expect a sizable swing in AVGO shares following the print, with options markets pricing in a potential $7 move, or roughly 8%, in either direction post-earnings. Source: InvestingPro Analysts expect Broadcom to deliver $1.57 per share, a robust 43% year-over-year increase, on revenue of $14.95 billion, up 20%. With data center investments continuing to accelerate globally and enterprise software spending showing resilience despite economic uncertainties, Broadcom appears well-positioned to deliver another strong quarter that could drive further appreciation in its shares. Analyst sentiment has been notably positive heading into the print. According to InvestingPro data, all 22 of the latest analyst revisions have been to the upside, highlighting confidence in Broadcom's continued expansion. The company's momentum mirrors that of AI leader Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), fueled by its dominance in data center infrastructure. With a history of beating earnings estimates and a forward P/E ratio that remains attractive compared to peers, Broadcom is well-positioned for upside. Positive guidance and potential dividend increases could further boost investor confidence. Source: AVGO stock ended Friday's session at $242.07, near its 52-week high of $251.88. Shares are up just 4% year-to-date in 2025 after delivering a robust 110% total return in 2024. InvestingPro's AI-powered quantitative model rates Broadcom with a 'GREAT' Financial Health Score of 3.05, reflecting strong profit and sales growth, high gross margins (over 76%), and a long-standing record of rising dividends. Be sure to check out InvestingPro to stay in sync with the market trend and what it means for your trading. Subscribe now for 45% off and position your portfolio one step ahead of everyone else! Conversely, Lululemon, a premium athleisure brand, faces a challenging week as it prepares to release earnings that are expected to disappoint. With intensifying competition in the activewear space and a lofty valuation that leaves little margin for error, LULU is vulnerable to a post-earnings sell-off. The yoga wear retailer is scheduled to release its first quarter update after the U.S. market closes on Thursday at 4:05PM ET. According to the options market, traders are pricing in a massive swing of 8.6% in either direction for LULU stock following the print. Source: InvestingPro The market is bracing for weak financials, driven by a slowdown in U.S. consumer spending on discretionary items like yoga gear and sportswear. Analyst sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish with 19 downward revisions and no upward adjustments in the weeks preceding the report. Lululemon is expected to post an annual gain of 1.6% in adjusted earnings per share to $2.58, with revenue projected to increase by 6.8% from the year-ago period to $2.36 billion. Commentary from executives on the health of the U.S. consumer will be closely watched, as any signs of prolonged weakness could rattle investor confidence. Lululemon's forward guidance already disappointed last quarter, and there's a palpable risk that another underwhelming report could prompt further downgrades. The premium athletic apparel retailer, known for its $128 leggings and $68 workout tanks, faces increasing competition from both established athletic brands and fast-fashion retailers offering similar styles at lower price points. Source: The technical picture for Lululemon stock has deteriorated as well, with shares underperforming the broader market and key retail indices year-to-date. LULU stock closed at $316.47 on Friday, well below its 52-week high of $423.32. As per InvestingPro research, recent analyst commentary paints a picture of declining momentum. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) cut its price target, and BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) downgraded to Underperform, warning of shrinking margins and pricing pressures. Be sure to check out InvestingPro to stay in sync with the market trend and what it means for your trading. Whether you're a novice investor or a seasoned trader, leveraging InvestingPro can unlock a world of investment opportunities while minimizing risks amid the challenging market AI: AI-selected stock winners with proven track record. InvestingPro Fair Value: Instantly find out if a stock is underpriced or overvalued. Advanced Stock Screener: Search for the best stocks based on hundreds of selected filters, and criteria. Top Ideas: See what stocks billionaire investors such as Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, and George Soros are buying. At the time of writing, I am long on the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 via the SPDR® S&P 500 ETF (SPY (NYSE:SPY)), and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ). I am also long on the Invesco Top QQQ ETF (QBIG), and Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). I regularly rebalance my portfolio of individual stocks and ETFs based on ongoing risk assessment of both the macroeconomic environment and companies' financials. The views discussed in this article are solely the opinion of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. Follow Jesse Cohen on X/Twitter @JesseCohenInv for more stock market analysis and insight. Related articles 1 Stock to Buy, 1 Stock to Sell This Week: Broadcom, Lululemon These 4 Quantum Stocks Outperformed in May—Is There More Room to Run? Nvidia Rides the AI Supercycle With Another Beat - And Still Looks Underpriced Sign in to access your portfolio
Bloomberg
07-03-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Surveillance: February Jobs Report
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney March 7th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, Ellen Zenter, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley, Rebecca Patterson, former Chief Investment Strategist at Bridgewater, and Kristina Campmany, Senior Portfolio Manager at Invesco, offer their reaction to the February US Jobs Report. Concerns over US growth, rising inflation, and uncertain tariff policy from the Trump administration have made this month's jobs report a critical data point for traders. All of the uncertainty has put the S&P 500 on track for its worst drop since September. 2) Gina Martin Adams, Chief US Equity Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses the equity reaction to the February jobs figures. The rapid tariff rollout has been driven by Trump administration and President Donald Trump himself has led to market volatility, with US equities taking a beating and consumer confidence eroding, posing political risks for the president and increasing overall market risks. 3) Anna Wong, Chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics, on her lower-than-consensus jobs call and why the labor market might be weakening or strengthening. Today's report offers clues on whether the Trump administration-led trade war and government job cuts are hitting jobs and making a case for the Federal Reserve to resume interest-rate cuts. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including the US scouring the globe for egg supplies, NCAA March Madness, and Meghan Markle's one pot pasta technique. Eric Mollo
