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The Star
22-05-2025
- Science
- The Star
Study: Microsoft AI weather forecast faster, cheaper, truer
Trained only on historical data, Aurora was able to correctly forecast all hurricanes in 2023 more accurately than operational forecasting centres, such as the US National Hurricane Center. — Reuters PARIS: Microsoft has developed an artificial intelligence (AI) model that beats current forecasting methods in tracking air quality, weather patterns, and climate-addled tropical storms, according to findings published on May 21. Dubbed Aurora, the new system – which has not been commercialised – generated 10-day weather forecasts and predicted hurricane trajectories more accurately and faster than traditional forecasting, and at lower costs, researchers reported in the journal Nature. "For the first time, an AI system can outperform all operational centres for hurricane forecasting," said senior author Paris Perdikaris, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Pennsylvania. Trained only on historical data, Aurora was able to correctly forecast all hurricanes in 2023 more accurately than operational forecasting centres, such as the US National Hurricane Center. Traditional weather predicting models are designed on first physical principles – such as conservation of mass, momentum and energy – and require massive computer power. The computational costs of Aurora were several hundred times lower, the study said. The experimental results follow on the heels of the Pangu-Weather AI model developed and unveiled by Chinese tech giant Huawei in 2023, and could herald a paradigm shift in how the world's major weather agencies forecast weather and potentially deadly extreme events exacerbated by global warming. 'Holy grail' "I believe that we're at the beginning of a transformation age in air system science," Perdikaris said in a video presentation distributed by Nature. "In the next five to 10 years the holy grail is how to build systems that can directly work with observations from remote sensing sources like satellites and weather stations to generate forecasts at high resolution anywhere we like." According to its designers, Aurora is the first AI model to consistently outperform seven forecasting centres in predicting the five-day trajectory of devastating cyclones. In its simulation, for example, Aurora correctly forecast four days in advance where and when Doksuri – the most costly typhoon ever recorded in the Pacific – would hit the Philippines. Official forecasts at the time, in 2023, had it heading north of Taiwan. Microsoft's AI model also outperformed the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model in 92% of cases for 10-day global forecasts, on a scale of approximately 10 square kilometres (3.86 square miles). The ECMWF, which provides forecasts for 35 European countries, is considered the global benchmark for weather accuracy. In December, Google announced that its GenCast model had surpassed the European centre's accuracy in more than 97% of the 1,320 climate disasters recorded in 2019. These promising performances – all experimental and based on observed events – are being closely scrutinised by weather agencies. Several, including Meteo-France, are developing their own AI learning models alongside traditional digital models. "This is something we have taken very seriously," Florence Rabier, Director General of the ECMWF, told AFP. Their first "learning model", made available to member states in February, is "about 1,000 times less expensive in terms of computing time than the traditional physical model", she added. While operating as a lower resolution (30 sq km) than Aurora, the ECMWF model is already operational. – AFP
Wales Online
15-05-2025
- Climate
- Wales Online
Brits told to 'prepare' after hurricane warning in holiday hotspot
Brits told to 'prepare' after hurricane warning in holiday hotspot People travelling to Barbados have been told by the foreign office to 'follow and monitor local and international weather updates' High above Alleynes Bay on the west coast of Barbados looking north People travelling to Barbados have been told by the foreign office to 'follow and monitor local and international weather updates' as hurricane season begins. The hurricane season runs from June to November. According to Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, you should follow and monitor local and international weather updates from the US National Hurricane Center and follow the advice of local authorities , including any evacuation orders. See Extreme weather and natural disasters on the UK government website. You find out more about local procedures, such as the location of any shelters and keep up to date with Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) travel advice by signing up to receive email alerts when the travel advice is updated for the country you're in. People are also advised to think about how you or your travel plans may be personally affected by an event and what personal preparations you might make. You should also ask your tour operator, airline and travel insurance provider what their terms and conditions are if you are affected by an extreme weather event before or during your trip, according to the Foreign Office. Article continues below Countries which have national disaster management agencies and many have early warning systems such as for tsunamis in the Indo-Pacific region. What you should do if you have warning of an event If you become aware of an extreme weather event that is forecast to affect the country you're in, you should: sign up to receive email alerts when FCDO travel advice is updated is updated keep in touch with your travel or tour operator and your hotel (where applicable) monitor local radio, TV and press follow the advice of local authorities, including any evacuation orders be familiar with advice that is specific for hazards (such as 'drop, cover, hold' in an earthquake) in an earthquake) check in with family and friends in the UK be prepared in case you need to move to a safe place at short notice – keep any essential items and supplies such as travel documents and essential medication together Article continues below Airports, transport networks or hotels may shut down if a hurricane approaches. If you are a humanitarian aid worker travelling to an area affected by natural disaster, read TravelHealthPro (from the UK's National Travel Health Network and Centre) advice for travelling to areas of humanitarian crisis .
