Latest news with #USgovernment
Forbes
26-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Can The Economy Grow When All Relationships Are Negotiating Chips?
Edward Fishman's timing is perfect. His book, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, was released one month into a new administration that views every economic relationship as a potential negotiating lever. Fishman's book tells the story of a gradual, and then sudden, awakening of government officials to the power associated with squeezing or cutting off key arteries of economic connection to achieve political goals. Fishman is friends with Chris Miller, who introduced us to the idea of chokepoints in his book Chip War. Miller explained that every chip that goes into the world's most advanced computers are made by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. And TSMC cannot produce these chips without a machine that only one other company, ASML of the Netherlands, can make. Those companies, and their products, are 'chokepoints' - control access to them and you wield enormous power. Fishman expands the story into a chronology of how the U.S. government learned to identify and use chokepoints. He knows many of the key actors, and was personally involved in some of the policy actions. This gives his book a 'fly on the wall feel' as the reader is placed in the room where decisions were made. Many of the stories track the increasingly detailed use of financial chokepoints. This began in 2006 with the US government going on a road show through Europe, meeting with bank CEOs and explaining how their institutions were helping channel money to Iran. Many of the CEO's were unaware and, fortunately, this forensic accounting approach convinced most to tighten enforcement of sanctions. But there was always going to a subset of banks that didn't care about maintaining good relationships with the US, and thus continued to work with Iran. This forced a pivot in the Americans' approach. Instead of trying to suffocate Iran's oil business, the US attempted to prevent Iran from bringing home the money it had earned. Iran could sell oil and receive payments in U.S. dollars. But, as the revenue was held in escrow accounts at foreign banks, the U.S. was able to restrict access. That created a tantalizing economic lever the US could pull. Look at all the money you've got - do what we want and you can have it, keep behaving badly and you can't. It feels like a pandora's box - once the lid was lifted and the US started to view the global economy from the lens of chokepoints, it got progressively more 'creative'. This creatively was unleashed in full force against Russia in 2022. One of the most striking stories in the book takes place just after Ukraine was invaded. Russian oil tankers attempting to leave the Black Sea and take their product to market became lined up in a vast traffic jam at the Bosphorus strait. Why? Because they weren't insured. And if they didn't have insurance Turkey was not going to let them pass through its territory. Why were they uninsured? Because 95% of shipping insurance is provided by firms in London who were complying with a services ban on Russian oil. London insurers were the TSMC of shipping - without their product an entire industry could not operate. Economic warfare has expanded beyond the financial realm and an important part of Fishman's story is how detailed legal maneuvering has been used against Chinese companies. One very important legal tool is a 'denial order' - an export control that bans the target company from buying all US products. In an interdependent global supply chain, getting hit with a denial order can amount to a death sentence. For example, China's second-largest telecom equipment maker ZTE was caught in a plot to buy US technology and resell it to Iran. In 2016, as part of a settlement, they were fined $1.2 billion. When they were later found to be violating those terms, the Commerce department issued a denial order against them. Because ZTE relied on American technology, the denial order was deadly and within three weeks the company issued this announcement: As a result of the denial order, the major operating activities of the company have ceased. President Xi eventually sweet talked Trump into rescinding the order, but as Fishman says, the lesson was learned - a leading foreign company could be dispatched, and then resurrected, with the stroke of a pen. What's my view on all this? It's clever to squeeze Russian oil by banning London-based insurers from dealing with them. That's a short-term win, and justifiable given the savage invasion of Ukraine. But surely that action at least partially undermines the basis of the industry in London. Why rely on insurance from a firm that can be squeezed to shut you off? The same logic applies almost everywhere pressure on a chokepoint is applied. The usual answer to this dilemma is: just don't invade a democracy and murder tens of thousands of people and you'll be fine. Fishman presents a version of this argument: That distinction has now been eviscerated by the Trump government. It doesn't matter if you are Canada - the country most aligned with the US on values, culture and economic prosperity. It doesn't matter if you are Germany - a country that used its economic leadership in Europe to shepherd democracy across the continent. Nope - the message is now clear. Your economic ties with us are just as liable to be used as chokepoints as those with China, Iran or Iraq. Germany made the mistake of relying on Russian natural gas for about 50% of its supplies. A massive chokepoint. And Russia choked them, triggering an energy crisis that threatens Germany's formidable industrial base. The US meanwhile has experienced a boom in exports of liquefied natural gas, and had ambitions to replace Russia supply, at least in part. But why would Germany build a reliance on US imports when it's obvious that will eventually be seen as a chokepoint? I've often thought of Putin as a tactical genius and a strategic incompetent. He knows how to use threats, manipulations and leverage to influence events in the short term. Meanwhile, all his maneuverings keep his focus on tactical wins, while in the long-term his country declines. It declines because of the contradiction that underlies the 'chokepoints' view of the economy. A country accumulates strength by virtue of a vibrant, competitive and growing economy. That economy is a network of connections and relationships. If all those relationships are ultimately vulnerable to government manipulation, the connections will be kept weak and shallow, because they must be expected to snap at any time. If everything becomes a point to be choked, there is no oxygen for growth. In the end you become weaker. Pre-Trump many of us imagined the world moving back into blocks based on political systems and shared values. Yes, chokepoints might exist inside a 'western' group of democracies, but that's ok because there was no need to fear they would be used as leverage. That vision is now gone. The US is now transactional, all chokepoints are fair game.
Jordan Times
22-05-2025
- Business
- Jordan Times
Project inaugurated to enhance water supplies to Amman, Zarqa
The Hallabat Water Conveyance Project, funded by the US government, seeks to boost national water supply and expand the capacity to meet growing demand, particularly in Amman and Zarqa, with a total investment of $50 million (File photo) AMMAN — Minister of Water and Irrigation Raed Abu Soud on Wednesday inaugurated the Hallabat Water Conveyance Project, a 'strategic' infrastructure initiative aimed at enhancing water supply in Amman and Zarqa. The project, funded by the US government, seeks to boost national water supply and expand the capacity to meet growing demand, particularly in Amman and Zarqa, with a total investment of $50 million, the Jordan News Agency, Petra, reported. Abu Soud expressed his gratitude to the US government for its 'generous and continued' support to the water sector, stressing the importance of strategic investments in this field. The minister described the project as 'vital' to enhancing water supply, providing 30 million cubic metres annually through the rehabilitation and drilling of 25 wells in the Hallabat well field. He said that the additional supply will help reduce the water deficit and meet the needs of around 820,000 people in the governorates of Amman and Zarqa. Abu Soud noted that the project will also provide extra quantities to other areas, as part of the ministry's broader efforts under the National Water Strategy to reduce water loss and improve supply. He added that efforts are ongoing to secure new water sources, increase the efficiency of supply and operational systems, and rehabilitate existing resources to ensure additional water reaches most regions across the Kingdom. US Chargé d'Affaires Rohit Nepal stressed the US government's commitment to partnering with Jordan in its pursuit of a more water-secure future, referring to ongoing efforts to enhance Jordan's water security by reducing water loss. The project was completed in a 'record' time of eight months and involved the rehabilitation, drilling, and development of 25 wells in the Hallabat field, Petra said. The venture is considered a 'successful' model of effective emergency response to the challenges of water scarcity in Jordan. It highlights how international partnerships, especially with the US government, along with advanced technology and improved infrastructure, can collectively contribute to meeting citizens' needs and advancing national water security goals, Petra added.
Bloomberg
19-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
US Debt Rates Itself
Does US government debt even have a credit rating? I mean, it does. It has three, or probably more, but three big ones. Since 2011, the US government has had an AA+ rating at Standard & Poor's; since August 2023, it has had an AA+ rating at Fitch. Until last week, it had an Aaa rating at Moody's Ratings, but on Friday that too was cut to Aa1. AAA (or Aaa) is the best rating; AA+ (or Aa1) is the second-best rating. But what is a credit rating? In some sense, there are companies — 'ratings agencies' or ' nationally recognized statistical ratings organizations ' — that employ people who think about the creditworthiness of companies and governments and asset-backed securities, and who come up with ratings that tell investors how creditworthy their bonds are. If you are an investor, you might trust the ratings agencies to tell you what bonds to buy. If you want to buy risky bonds, you can buy bonds with 'junk' ratings (or more politely 'high yield,' BB+/Ba1 or lower). If you want to buy safe bonds, you can buy bonds with 'investment grade' ratings (BBB-/Baa3 or higher). If you want to buy only the very safest bonds, you can stick to bonds with AAA/Aaa ratings.
Bloomberg
18-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Oil Steadies After Early Surge as Traders Mull Moody's Downgrade
Oil steadied after an early drop, as Moody's Ratings stripped the US government of its top credit rating, adding to concerns about the outlook for global growth. Brent fell as much as 1.1% to below $65 a barrel before recovering, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $62. The Moody's downgrade, which trailed rivals, risks reinforcing Wall Street's growing worries over the US sovereign bond market and a slowing economy.
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Treasury secretary calls on Congress to raise or suspend the debt ceiling by mid-July
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. is on track to run out of money to pay its bills as early as August without congressional action, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned Friday. He is calling on Congress to either raise or suspend the debt ceiling by mid-July. 'A failure to suspend or increase the debt limit would wreak havoc on our financial system and diminish America's security and global leadership position,' Bessent wrote in the letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson. 'Prior episodes have shown that waiting until the last minute to suspend or increase the debt limit can have serious adverse consequences for financial markets, businesses and the federal government.' Earlier this week, Bessent twice testified in front of congressional committees that the Treasury's debt ceiling is 'on the warning track.' After the debt limit was reinstated in January, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen — in one of her last acts in the position — said the agency would institute 'extraordinary measures" intended to prevent the U.S. from reaching the debt ceiling. Since then, the Treasury Department has stopped paying into certain accounts, including a slew of federal worker pension and disability funds, to make up for the shortfall in money. Bessent has continued to notify Congress about the use of extraordinary measures in an effort to prevent a breach of the debt ceiling. In his latest letter, Bessent attributed the August deadline, known as the 'X-date,' in part to receipts from the latest tax filing season. A Bipartisan Policy Center analysis released in March estimated that the U.S. could run out of cash by mid-July if Congress did not raise or suspend the nation's debt limit. President Donald Trump had previously demanded that a provision raising or suspending the debt limit — something his own Republican Party routinely resists — be included in legislation to avert the last potential government shutdown under his Democratic predecessor, President joe Biden. 'Anything else is a betrayal of our country,' Trump said in a statement in December. That deal did not ultimately address the debt limit. The letter to Johnson comes as Republicans consider a massive tax cut and border security package that includes an increase in the debt limit. Bessent's request could give GOP lawmakers greater incentive to reach an agreement.
