a day ago
- Politics
- New Straits Times
World is going through a new era of conflict escalation
AS India's defence chief attended an international security conference in Singapore in May, soon after India and Pakistan fought what many in South Asia now dub "the four-day war", he had a simple message: Both sides expect to do it all again.
However, Indian Chief of Defence Staff General Anil Chauhan denied either nation had come close to the "nuclear threshold", describing a "lot of messaging" from both sides.
There have been several dramatic examples of escalation in several global stand-offs over the past two months.
Recent weeks have witnessed what is now referred to in Israel and Iran as their "12-day war". It ended last week with a US-brokered ceasefire.
As events in Ukraine have shown, conflict between major nations can become normalised at speed — whether that means "just" an exchange of drones and missiles, or a more existential battle.
More concerning still, such conflicts appear to have become more serious throughout the current decade, with plenty of room for further escalation.
This month, that included an audacious set of Ukrainian-organised drone strikes on long-range bomber bases deep inside Russian territory, destroying multiple aircraft which, as well as striking Ukraine, have also been responsible for carrying the Kremlin's nuclear deterrent.
Simmering in the background, meanwhile, is the largest and most dangerous confrontation of them all — that between the United States and China.
US officials say Beijing has instructed its military to be prepared to move against Taiwan from 2027, potentially sparking a hugely wider conflict.
Addressing senators on Tuesday, America's next top commanders in Europe and the Middle East were unanimous in their comments that the US strikes against Iran would strengthen Washington's hand when it came to handling Moscow and Beijing.
Chinese media commentary was more mixed.
Han Peng, head of state-run China Media Group's North American operations, said the US had shown weakness to the world by not wanting to get dragged into the Iran conflict due to its "strategic contraction".
Other social media posts talked of how vulnerable Iran looked, with nationalist commentator Hu Xijn warning: "If one day we have to get involved in a war, we must be the best at it."
On that front, the spectacle of multiple US B-2 bombers battering Iran's deepest-buried nuclear bunkers — having flown all the way from the US mainland apparently undetected — will not have gone unnoticed in Moscow or Beijing.
Nor will President Trump's not so subtle implications that unless Iran backed down, similar weapons might be used to kill its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or other senior figures, wherever they might hide.
None of America's adversaries have the ability to strike without warning in that way against hardened, deepened targets, and the B-2 — now being replaced by the more advanced B-21 — has no foreign equal.
In reality, the threat of an overwhelming US military response, and hints of an accompanying switch of US policy to outright regime change or decapitation in Iran, coupled with the Israeli military success against Hizbollah and Hamas, appear to have forced Teheran to largely stand down.
What that means in the longer term is another question.
Behind the scenes and sometimes in public, US and allied officials say they are still assessing the implications of the success of Ukraine and Israel in infiltrating large numbers of short-range drones into Russia and Iran, respectively, for two spectacular attacks in recent weeks.
According to Ukrainian officials, the drones were smuggled into Russia hidden inside prefabricated buildings on the back of trucks, with the Russian drivers unaware of what they were carrying until the drones were launched.
Israel's use of drones on the first day of its campaign against Iran is even more unsettling for Western nations.
Its drones were smuggled into Iran and, in some cases, assembled in secret there to strike multiple senior Iranian leaders and officials in their homes.
As they met in The Hague last week for their annual summit, Nato officials and commanders would have considered what they must do to build their own defences to ensure that they do not prove vulnerable to a similar attack.
Judging by reports in the Chinese press, military officials there are now working on the same.
