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New modelling predicts up to 10 million additional HIV infections following aid cuts
New modelling predicts up to 10 million additional HIV infections following aid cuts

Telegraph

time26-03-2025

  • Health
  • Telegraph

New modelling predicts up to 10 million additional HIV infections following aid cuts

Aid cuts by Donald Trump and Sir Keir Starmer could trigger a resurgence in HIV cases, with up to 10.8 million more people infected globally. Modelling published in the Lancet HIV medical journal shows the cuts could reverse decades of progress in slowing the epidemic that still kills around one person per minute. It says there will be between 4.4m to 10.8m additional new infections by the end of this decade in low-and-middle income countries unless the funding shortfall can be filled. The peer-reviewed study also estimated there could be between 0.8m and 2.9m HIV-related deaths in children and adults by 2030. Overall new infections and deaths from HIV will return to those last seen in the early 2000s. The grim forecast comes only days after the chief of the United Nations Aids agency made her own warning that US funding cuts could lead to an additional six million deaths in the next four years. Winnie Byanyima this week said she feared a return to the 1990s, when HIV medication was scarcely available in poorer countries, and infections and deaths soared. Foreign donors provide around two-fifths of all anti-HIV funding in low and middle-income countries, with America, the UK, France, Germany, and the Netherlands between them making up 90 per cent of that. Yet each of these countries has recently announced significant aid cuts, giving reasons including the cost of rearming and reacting to the war in Ukraine, the desire to slim down public spending, or ideological opposition. America's cuts are potentially the steepest, after the Trump administration paused all foreign aid for a 90-day review into programmes. The US Pepfar anti-HIV programme is a cornerstone of the global fight against the virus and the largest commitment by a country ever to address a single disease. In the 20 years since it was introduced by George W. Bush, it is credited with saving 26 million lives in more than 50 countries. The Trump administration has vowed to keep 'lifesaving' parts of it, but other parts have been scrapped and it remains unclear how much will survive. 'Decades of progress' could unravel Foreign aid goes to pay for everything from research into new vaccines and treatments, to giving anti-retroviral drugs to those already infected, to providing anti-HIV preventative jabs and tablets to those most at risk of catching the virus. Taken across all five donors, the cuts are between them projected to see a 24 per cent fall in global international HIV funding by next year. Dr Debra ten Brink, a scientist at Australia's Burnet Institute and one of the paper's lead authors, said: 'The current cuts to Pepfar and USAID-supported programmes have already disrupted access to essential HIV services including for antiretroviral therapy and HIV prevention and testing. 'Looking ahead, if other donor countries reduce funding, decades of progress to treat and prevent HIV could be unravelled.' 'It is imperative to secure sustainable financing and avoid a resurgence of the HIV epidemic which could have devastating consequences, not just in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, but globally.' The modelling looked at the impact on 26 countries and then extrapolated across all lower and middle income countries. If the funding reductions continue as planned, they found there could be between 4.4m to 10.8 million extra new HIV infections by 2030. That would represent a 1.3 to six-fold increase in new infections for people at higher risk of acquiring HIV, compared to if funding levels remained consistent. Dr Rowan Martin-Hughes, also of the Burnet Institute, said: 'There could be an even greater impact in sub-Saharan Africa, where broader prevention efforts, such as distributing condoms and offering pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP – a medication that reduces the risk of getting HIV) are at first risk to be discontinued. 'This is in addition to disruptions in testing and treatment programmes could cause a surge in new HIV infections, especially in some of the areas where the greatest gains have been made, such as preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV and paediatric HIV deaths.' The billions of foreign aid poured into anti-HIV efforts have contributed to significant progress in treating and preventing the virus. There has been an average 8.3 per cent yearly decrease in new infections and a 10.3 per cent decrease in HIV-related deaths, the researchers said. If that trend continued, many countries would be on track to meet global targets to eliminate HIV/Aids as a public health threat by around 2036. That could now go into reverse, the modelling suggests. 'There is an urgent need for innovative, country-led financing strategies and an integration of HIV services into broader health systems, however, this can't happen overnight,' said Dr Nick Scott, also of the Burnet Institute (Australia). 'Long-term strategic planning is required for countries to transition from internationally supported to domestically financed programmes. Our study highlights how important international collaboration and investment have been in maintaining progress against HIV.'

‘Miracle' Aids drug ‘may give protection for a year'
‘Miracle' Aids drug ‘may give protection for a year'

Yahoo

time11-03-2025

  • Health
  • Yahoo

‘Miracle' Aids drug ‘may give protection for a year'

A new drug hailed as a leap forward against the HIV/Aids epidemic may be able to protect people for twice as long as first thought, new research suggests. Lenacapavir was named the 2024 scientific breakthrough of the year after trials showed a subcutaneous injection every six months provided total protection against catching the HIV virus. Research published in the Lancet medical journal has now found the drug is safe and persists in the body for more than a year if injected deep into a patient's muscle. The authors of the peer-reviewed paper said their findings 'show the potential for biomedical HIV prevention with a once-yearly dosing interval'. After decades of trying, scientists are yet to come up with an effective vaccine against the HIV virus that causes Aids, and the infection still kills an average of one person each minute. However there have been breakthroughs in protective anti-HIV treatments, called pre-exposure prophylaxis (or PrEP), which stop people catching the virus. Previous versions of PrEP have been short term, meaning people can still get infected if they forget to adhere to a daily dose of pills. Long-lasting PrEP is considered more effective because people are less likely to forget to take it. It is also more discreet for patients worried about stigma, because they do not need to keep large quantities of medicine at home, or make frequent trips to a clinic. A large clinical trial spanning South Africa and Uganda last year reported Lenacapavir injections provided total protection in young African women for six months at a time. The results were so clear cut that researchers stopped the trial early and Winnie Byanyima, head of the United Nations Aids body, UNAIDS, described Lenacapavir as a 'miracle product'. The new study by scientists at the Gilead Sciences' pharma giant behind Lenacapavir looked at the safety of giving 40 patients intramuscular injections and whether the drug stayed in their systems. Researchers found that after 56 weeks, drug levels in the patients were still higher than those associated with HIV protection in the earlier trials. The authors said their findings suggested a one-yearly injection would be just as effective as the six-monthly jab. No clinically significant safety concerns were identified, the research said. Lenacapavir had already been used as a treatment of last resort in a small number of patients infected with HIV and was last year estimated to cost patients more than $40,000 (£31,000) a year in countries including the United States, France, Norway and Australia. The high price led to fears poorer countries would be unable to afford it. The Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria in December said it would join forces with the American government's anti-HIV campaign to supply affordable doses of the drug. The fund has said it will since roll out the jab with or without US help after Donald Trump put much of his country's international aid on pause. Protect yourself and your family by learning more about Global Health Security Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.

‘Miracle' Aids drug ‘may give protection for a year'
‘Miracle' Aids drug ‘may give protection for a year'

Telegraph

time11-03-2025

  • Health
  • Telegraph

‘Miracle' Aids drug ‘may give protection for a year'

A new drug hailed as a leap forward against the HIV/Aids epidemic may be able to protect people for twice as long as first thought, new research suggests. Lenacapavir was named the 2024 scientific breakthrough of the year after trials showed a subcutaneous injection every six months provided total protection against catching the HIV virus. Research published in the Lancet medical journal has now found the drug is safe and persists in the body for more than a year if injected deep into a patient's muscle. The authors of the peer-reviewed paper said their findings 'show the potential for biomedical HIV prevention with a once-yearly dosing interval'. After decades of trying, scientists are yet to come up with an effective vaccine against the HIV virus that causes Aids, and the infection still kills an average of one person each minute. However there have been breakthroughs in protective anti-HIV treatments, called pre-exposure prophylaxis (or PrEP), which stop people catching the virus. Previous versions of PrEP have been short term, meaning people can still get infected if they forget to adhere to a daily dose of pills. Long-lasting PrEP is considered more effective because people are less likely to forget to take it. It is also more discreet for patients worried about stigma, because they do not need to keep large quantities of medicine at home, or make frequent trips to a clinic. A large clinical trial spanning South Africa and Uganda last year reported Lenacapavir injections provided total protection in young African women for six months at a time. The results were so clear cut that researchers stopped the trial early and Winnie Byanyima, head of the United Nations Aids body, UNAIDS, described Lenacapavir as a 'miracle product'. The new study by scientists at the Gilead Sciences' pharma giant behind Lenacapavir looked at the safety of giving 40 patients intramuscular injections and whether the drug stayed in their systems. Researchers found that after 56 weeks, drug levels in the patients were still higher than those associated with HIV protection in the earlier trials. The authors said their findings suggested a one-yearly injection would be just as effective as the six-monthly jab. No clinically significant safety concerns were identified, the research said. Lenacapavir had already been used as a treatment of last resort in a small number of patients infected with HIV and was last year estimated to cost patients more than $40,000 (£31,000) a year in countries including the United States, France, Norway and Australia. The high price led to fears poorer countries would be unable to afford it. The Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria in December said it would join forces with the American government's anti-HIV campaign to supply affordable doses of the drug. The fund has said it will since roll out the jab with or without US help after Donald Trump put much of his country's international aid on pause.

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