Latest news with #UniversityofSt.Thomas
Miami Herald
14-05-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Supply chain pro says tariffs affect not just economy, but national security
The U.S. needs global trade. However, the country needs to be smart about the policies around it, including tariffs, one local expert says. Scott Martens - who cut his supply-chain chops in the military, worked for Twin Cities companies and now is a University of St. Thomas professor - says the discussion around supply chains and tariffs needs to include national security implications. A former Navy officer, Martens flew S-3B Viking multimission jets off carriers USS Enterprise and USS Nimitz in the first Gulf War. After teaching at the University of Minnesota, the University of Iowa graduate now is a professor of supply chains and business analytics at St. Thomas' Opus College of Business and a consultant. We asked him about the current tariff uncertainty, especially in regard to China, and its effects on the supply chain. The interview has been edited for length and clarity. Q: How are tariffs today different than the supply-chain crisis that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic? A: I like to say COVID-19 was as much a supply-chain crisis as it was a health care crisis. Today, I like to say tariffs are not only about economic security but also national security. And what do both COVID and tariffs have in common? They impact global supply chains. I often say, Americans will not fully appreciate the national security aspect of tariffs and global trade, until one day their iPhones no longer work - because our adversaries have shut down critical supplies. Tariffs are not only an economic play but also a national security play that requires us to fundamentally and strategically rethink our sources of supply and the supply chains that move them. Q: Where do you fall on international trade? A: I'm an old Navy guy. Global trade keeps the U.S. Navy in business. My dad always used to poke fun by asking me why I drove a VW and Mazda. I told him as a Navy guy, it was for job security! Bottom line: I'm all about global, free and fair trade, but I think the U.S. needs to have smart global trade. We can no longer have predominantly sole sources of supply and critical sources of production running through our adversaries. The risk to national security is unacceptable. Q: How do tariffs impact a company's supply chain? A: We live in a capitalistic society. Capitalism is not perfect, but the best system out there. It's based upon sending signals via price in the marketplace. Tariffs are a price signal imposed by the government on trade. As tariffs increase, public companies, which have their goal of making money for shareholders as their primary purpose of existence, are incented via the tariff signal to seek alternative sources of "cheaper" supply. Q: For decades, businesses have been moving to a just-in-time inventory system that's highly dependent on concentrating supply chains. Do you see that philosophy changing? A: I like to think of inventory philosophy like a pendulum. The pendulum swings between just in time and just in case. For decades, companies have been obsessed with driving cost out via lean thinking, which results in a just-in-time philosophy. During extreme events - COVID, weather events, earthquakes, labor strikes and now tariffs - there is a price to be paid for running too lean. Since COVID, we have seen more companies begin to carry a bit of excess inventory (just in case) to cover for unplanned, disruptive events in the supply chain. There is a financial risk of carrying too much inventory and there is a financial risk of carrying too little inventory - being out of stock (loss of market share). Those risks must be balanced. Q: How can risks around supply chains be mitigated? A: To mitigate these risks we must develop smart, strategic supply chains. Businesses working with government must identify critical sources of supply and map out the supply chains to understand the complex web of interdependencies. The U.S. should set a percentage exposure limit of strategic sources of supply that can run through adversaries. Any level above that limit must either be reshored to the U.S. or off-loaded to approved allies. Q: Does the Navy still have a role in protecting free trade? A: Global trade is not going away. It will change based on rethinking our strategic supply chains. Since international trade is not going away, there must be freedom of navigation for our trade on the high seas. This requires a strong, powerful blue water Navy. Ninety percent of global trade transits on the high seas. Freedom of navigation is the benchmark for globalization and international trade. Q:What about companies that switched some of their manufacturing away from China because of the tariffs during Trump's first term and COVID-19 issues, but now must face new tariffs where they shifted manufacturing? A: Be flexible, have options. Multisource from multiple countries. Think of it like a food company. If you look at ingredients on the back of a food box, it says "may contain xxxx." That gives them the ability to substitute as prices increase or sources of supply chain change. Nonfood companies need to use multisourcing and use this concept to control risk. One such risk is price. Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers.
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's egg price fiction has suddenly become reality
For months, President Donald Trump has falsely claimed that egg prices are tumbling. It wasn't true then, but it's true now. Egg prices fell 12.7% last month, the biggest monthly decline since 1984, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. And they could continue to fall this month, too: The USDA reported last week that a dozen large white-shell eggs now cost $3.30 on average, down a whopping 69 cents from a week before. It's a remarkable reversal after egg prices surged in each of the past five months – and 17 of the past 19 months – because of a deadly avian flu epidemic that necessitated the mass culling of egg-laying hens. 'Maybe the worst of EggGate has passed,' Tyler Schipper, associate professor in economics and data analysis at the University of St. Thomas in St. Paul, Minnesota, told CNN. Nevertheless, egg prices remain significantly higher now than before the latest bird flu outbreak, and they cost 49.3% more last month than they did a year earlier. Eggs are still more expensive than when Trump took office, according to the BLS. Egg prices this past Easter, which typically rise in the run-up to the holiday, were the highest for any Easter on record, the USDA reported. Well before last month's decline, Trump had been touting falling egg prices as a sign that his administration's plan to lower prices for consumers has been working. In February, the USDA announced an initiative to lower egg prices, including increased biosecurity on egg-laying farms, aid to farmers who have lost flocks and temporary lifting of restrictions on egg imports. Despite Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins' far more conservative estimate that egg prices would normalize in the summer, Trump last month said, 'as you know, the cost of eggs has come down like 93, 94% since we took office.' Those percentage declines Trump stated are not close to accurate – but we now know that consumer egg prices were, indeed, falling sharply when Trump made those remarks (the Consumer Price Index data wasn't out yet to confirm or deny Trump's claims). It appears as though Trump may have been talking about wholesale prices, which had been tumbling throughout March before normalizing in recent weeks. Nevertheless, wholesale prices fell by half – not close to the 90%+ figures Trump was citing. Wholesale prices are the costs distributors pay to farmers or middlemen. Consumer prices are what customers pay at grocery stores. Those costs typically make their way through the supply chain at a slower pace, because grocery stores may decide to keep prices at a certain price, even when wholesale prices change, to try to recoup lost profits from prior weeks, according to Kevin Bergquist, sector manager at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute. The USDA says consumer prices finally fell as demand for eggs decreased and avian flu cases have fallen. Many groceries, including large chains like Costco, had limited customers' purchases because of egg shortages. So Trump's claim that consumer egg prices are down is finally true – even if the timing of his claim and the wild percentages he threw around were grossly inaccurate. CNN's Alicia Wallace contributed to this report.
CBS News
05-05-2025
- Sport
- CBS News
University of St. Thomas track athlete is shattering school records this season
University of St. Thomas track and field athlete Olivia Keller is known for her speed on the track. The junior Captain broke the school record for the 400 meter this season. "I think that record is meant to be continually broken," Keller said. "Our team is building and building on each other, so just to be a part of that, is just amazing." She also broke the long jump UST track and field program record at 5.90 meters this season, and most recently the school record for the 400 meter hurdles. Getting height is a skill she learned way before track and field, when she started Irish dancing as a first grader. This passion unknowingly at the time laid the groundwork for the sport she would pursue as a D1 athlete. "A lot of it was the leaps and movements I had learned in Irish dance, and then I started learning hurdles about a year and half ago here at [University of] St. Thomas, which is pretty similar as well, so it definitely helped with my overall athleticism," said Keller. Keller does it all. She's a heptathlon athlete, meaning she competes in seven different track and field events. Running is her strength, but it's more meaningful when she succeeds in throwing, a newer skill for her. "I'm way more excited about that because you can see the improvement happening," said Keller. On top of being a student-athlete, she's a pre-med student majoring in neuroscience, currently studying for her med-school exam. She also recently wrote a children's book called "The Speaking Seashell," about a child's relationship with their grandparents. "As kids who are growing up, just emphasizing that bond between their grandparents and all that they can learn," said Keller. Just like she races for the finish line in track, Keller runs at her other passions with the same tenacity. "I had an idea and I took action on it, and that's definitely what I try to do a lot in life," said Keller.
CBS News
21-04-2025
- Politics
- CBS News
Minnesota politicians at odds over bill requiring proof of citizenship for voter registration
The U.S. House recently passed the SAVE Act , which requires proof of citizenship to vote. The bill has resulted in a heated debate on what ID requirements should be needed to vote. "By passing the SAVE Act, House Republicans are working to ensure that only American citizens vote in American elections and voters across the political spectrum agree," U.S. Rep. Tom Emmer said. Proof of citizenship can be made with an original birth certificate or a passport, but critics say the SAVE Act would keep millions from voting. The U.S. government estimates 146 million Americans do not have a passport, which at its lowest price costs $130. Sixty-nine million women do not have a birth certificate with their name on it because they changed their name when they got married. Among the leading critics of the SAVE Act is Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon. He says women, especially, will have hoops to jump through. "Sixty-nine million American women have a different last name now than when they were born. Of those, north of 20 million do not have a passport. So what does that mean? Just practically, in a common-sense way, it means that will person will likely have to produce documents in person. One will be a birth certificate, and then a second document will be a marriage record." Emmer says Minnesota needs the SAVE Act especially badly because of new driver's license laws passed in the last few years. The laws are automatic voter registration when renewing a driver's license and a law that allows undocumented residents to get driver's licenses . Emmer says that in Minnesota, 1,000 voter registrations were sent to people who could not legally vote. Simon says the bottom line is that noncitizens are not voting. "There was a study by a University of St. Thomas professor last summer, so this is fresh. Ten years of Minnesota voting from 2014 to 2024: 13.3 million voters voted during that time. He found three examples of a noncitizen voting out of 13.3 million." To become law, the SAVE Act would have to pass the U.S. Senate, and with a slim Democratic majority and 60 votes needed, that is unlikely to happen. However, the SAVE Act is moving forward in several other states. Louisiana, New Hampshire and Wyoming have all adopted proof of citizenship for voting laws. You can watch WCCO Sunday Morning with Esme Murphy and Adam Del Rosso every Sunday at 6 a.m. and 10:30 a.m.
Yahoo
09-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The next round of Trump's tariffs could hurt even more. Here's what to expect
'Liberation Day' came and went, with President Donald Trump's sweeping new tariffs battering markets, unsettling the global order, and prompting businesses and households to reconsider their spending. And it's far from over. There's the immediate aftermath: Trump's actions, based on economically questionable math, have triggered retaliatory tariffs, stoked trade wars, and escalated recession odds. There are near-, medium-, and long-term risks: The dangerous mix of fear, unpredictability, lost investments, and sudden cost spikes could quickly spill into the economy, causing real and lasting pain for people. And there are likely more tariffs coming down the pike: A suite of crucial materials was exempt from Wednesday's tariff actions, including copper, computer chips, lumber, pharmaceuticals and critical minerals. However, Trump administration officials have indicated these products could be subject to tariffs at a later date. It also remains to be seen whether Canada and Mexico, two of the biggest targets of Trump's on-again, off-again tariffs, will continue to be largely spared. 'This list does not strike me as a negotiating position right now,' said Tyler Schipper, associate professor of economics at the University of St. Thomas in St. Paul, Minnesota. 'Hopefully, some of these come down, but it's a big list, and it's across the board.' 'This seems to suggest more like we're putting up walls, rather than we're negotiating to hopefully get all the walls to come down,' he added. Trump's one-two tariff punch announced last week included a baseline 10% tariff on all imported goods to the US, followed by steeper 'reciprocals' tariff on five dozen countries that the White House claimed were the 'worst offenders' in charging high tariffs or imposing non-tariff trade barriers. The former went into place April 5, and the latter took effect Wednesday. However, the 'reciprocal' tariffs were anything but that, further complicating and potentially amplifying the negative consequences of Trump's actions. The additional levies, some of which shot north of 45%, were calculated by essentially dividing bilateral goods trade deficits by goods trade exports. Trade deficits, by their very nature, aren't necessarily all bad. 'It's very wrongheaded economics; it's quite natural that you will have deficits with some countries and surpluses with others,' economist Marcus Noland, executive vice president and director of studies with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told CNN. 'So, trying to implement a policy to generate balanced trade with all countries just flies in the face of any kind of comparative advantage or specialization.' Plus, the resulting tariffs should be a quarter lower than stated because the Trump administration erred in its calculations by undervaluing how the duty could impact items' import prices, noted economists for the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. The formula, which AEI economists said had 'no foundation in either economic theory or trade law,' instead wrongly incorporated the elasticity for retail prices. As it stands, the Trump administration's severe and widespread tariff actions flung a powder keg into the global economy, pushing recession forecasts higher. Domestically, the tariffs could have swiftly negative consequences, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned. 'As for the short-term, we are likely to see inflationary outcomes, not only on imported goods but on domestic prices, as input costs rise and demand increases on domestic products,' he wrote in his annual letter to shareholders. 'How this plays out on different products will partially depend on their substitutability and price elasticity. Whether or not the menu of tariffs causes a recession remains in question, but it will slow down growth.' And plenty of uncertainties remain, Dimon noted, including the extent of retaliatory actions and the effects on confidence, investments, capital flows, corporate profits and the almighty dollar. 'The quicker this issue is resolved, the better, because some of the negative effects increase cumulatively over time and would be hard to reverse,' he wrote. The freefall in the financial markets indicates there's a crisis of confidence brewing in the US dollar, said Joe Brusuelas, RSM US chief economist. 'We can now not ignore nor avoid the discussion of the devaluation of the dollar and the dollar's reserve currency status,' Brusuelas told CNN. In terms of the economic impact, even the best-case scenario involves accelerated inflation in addition to hits to real gross domestic product growth and unemployment, according to Sung Won Sohn, professor of finance and economics at Loyola-Marymount University and president of SS Economics, who detailed the economic implications for the US in a note issued last week. The best-case scenario over the next 12 months: Real GDP contracts by 0.2 percentage points, employment shrinks by 0.1% and inflation ticks up by 0.2 percentage points. The worst-case: Economic activity sinks 1.3 percentage points (real GDP grew 2.4% at the end of 2024), the US economy loses 1.3 million jobs, and inflation rises by 1.3 percentage points, he noted. Sohn, whose 'base case' falls in between, expressed optimism that the US economy could be resilient enough to avoid a recession. A few factors played into his calculus: The US economy is overwhelmingly services-driven, so the sectoral composition should provide a cushion; tariffs are a one-time price adjustment and shouldn't accelerate underlying inflation pressures; touted policies such as tax cuts and deregulation could provide a stimulating effect on demand; and now that the announcements have been made, it could ease uncertainty. However, certainty is anything but a sure thing these days, and the bread-and-butter of the US economy might not go unscathed, said RSM economist Brusuelas. 'The US is a service-based economy,' he said. 'That's where the wealth is; that's where the money is. (Countries) are going to likely retaliate against the banks, the airlines and tech.' The retaliation could very well escalate, depending on how the administration moves forward on plans for sectoral tariffs and Trump's continued application of Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (what used to be a rarely employed trade provision) that allows a president to impose tariffs if there are potential national security threats. Last week's tariff announcement came with several notable exclusions: Steel, aluminum and autos (three areas already subjected to their tariffs); copper and lumber (which are under Section 232 investigations for potential national security impacts); and pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals (where Section 232 investigations are expected). Trump has frequently quipped that the US doesn't need to import items like lumber, cars and oil, claiming that natural resources and manufacturing potential are plentiful enough domestically for America to be self-sufficient. Economists, researchers and other experts have frequently warned that it's not that simple: It takes years for manufacturing facilities to be built, supply chains to be established, and skilled workforces to be trained. (Plus, the construction of those new facilities would likely require imported materials that now are coming at a premium.) Still, the sector tariffs could push inflation even higher, said Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide Mutual's chief economist. Following last week's announcement, Nationwide's modeling indicated that the Consumer Price Index, which had cooled to an annual rate of 2.8% in February, could climb to between 3.5% and 4% by the end of the year. The sector tariffs could very well push that to the higher range of 4% to 4.5%, she said. CPI hasn't been above 4% for nearly two years, Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows. In addition to those near- and longer-term headwinds, tariffs could pose unique challenges for each sector: Copper and critical minerals: It's not yet known which minerals the US could consider investigating under Section 232; however, an investigation is already underway on copper — a critical cog in the ongoing electrification of America and industries such as defense. The US imports about 50% of the copper it uses, and demand is only expected to grow, especially as energy-consuming industries such as artificial intelligence and blockchain boom, Dan Ikenson, economist and trade policy scholar at Ikenomics Consulting, told CNN. 'It takes 16, 17, 18 years to get the licenses for mines and permits for refining,' he said. 'Since we don't have those resources, and we're dependent on the world for it, we should not be agitating and looking to pick trade fights, we should be working out arrangements where we can have long-term access to Canada's exports, Chile's and Peru's.' Lumber: Softwood lumber is a critical and preferred ingredient to homebuilding, and 30% of it is imported by the US. Homebuilders warn that tariffs and other charges (including the potential doubling of existing duties on Canadian lumber) on softwood lumber and other materials could further exacerbate the housing affordability crisis. Higher costs of lumber imports could also affect other products, such as furniture and even toilet paper. The Trump administration, to bolster the US lumber industry, recently ordered that half of America's national forests be opened up for logging — a move criticized for its potential negative effects on the environment, species, watersheds, and recreation. Pharmaceuticals: Tariffs here present conflicting policy goals for Trump, who's stated he wants to bring down the prices of pharmaceutical products and bolster US manufacturing, Diederik Stadig, health care sector economist for ING, wrote in a post last week. 'While some branded production might gradually be shifted to the US, a big increase in generic production is unlikely,' he said, noting that the construction of new facilities takes roughly 10 years. Tariffs also have an inflationary effect, which would drive up health care costs and hamper the affordability of medication, especially for people without insurance: Under a 25% tariff, commonly prescribed drugs could increase from 82 cents per pill to 94 cents a pill, or roughly $42 more per year, he wrote. More complex prescriptions, such as those for cancer treatment, could jump even higher, he wrote, estimating that a 24-week prescription could see additional costs in the $8,000 to $10,000 range. Semiconductors: Medical devices, Wi-Fi routers, laptops, smartphones, cars, household appliances and LED lightbulbs are just a few examples of where semiconductor chips are found. And these products often don't just require one or two. For instance, new cars contain thousands of them. Put another way, semiconductor chips are 'the crude oil of the 21st century.' And it became glaringly obvious what happens when that oil runs dry: As a side effect of the pandemic, a chip shortage put cars and other products in short supply and fanned the flames of inflation. Although the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act passed in 2022 helped incentivize chipmakers like TSMC to open US facilities, even if tariffs spurred more domestic chip production, America still lacks electronic assembly capabilities, John Dallesasse, an electrical and computer engineering professor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, previously told CNN. Because of that, any chips produced in the US would still have to be shipped abroad to places like Taiwan, South Korea, China and Mexico to be put into the finished electronics Americans buy, and those would be subject to tariffs. CNN's Elisabeth Buchwald contributed to this report Sign in to access your portfolio
