08-05-2025
'Wouldn't want it bashing you on the head': Soviet-era spacecraft to crash back to Earth this week
A Soviet-era spacecraft is due to crash back to Earth this week after it failed to reach Venus more than 50 years ago.
The space debris, known as Kosmos 482, is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere sometime around May 10, however, not much is known about the spacecraft, including its size and shape.
If the debris is the "entry capsule," like many researchers believe it to be, then it could survive the trip home, posing a small but not zero risk to people on the ground.
Dr Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist, said the risk of the object hitting people on the ground is likely minimal, and there's "no need for major concern", but warned "you wouldn't want it bashing you on the head".
While most objects, such as meteors and space junk, disintegrate on re-entry due to the Earth's atmosphere, the entry capsule would be equipped with a substantial heat shield, meaning it "might well survive Earth atmosphere entry and hit the ground".
"It is quite dense, whatever it is, because it had a very low point in its orbit, yet it didn't decay for decades,' said Marlon Sorge, a space debris expert, 'so it's clearly bowling ball-ish'.
The chances of Kosmos 482 causing deadly damage are roughly 1 in 25,000, according to The Aerospace Corporation's calculations, Sorge said.
"You have a larger risk of being hit by lightning once in your lifetime," Marco Langbroek, a lecturer and space traffic expert said.
If the Kosmos 482 object does hit the ground, it's likely to hit an area that encompasses "the whole of Africa, South America, Australia, the USA, parts of Canada, parts of Europe, and parts of Asia," Mr Langbroek said.
'But as 70% of our planet is water, chances are good that it will end up in an Ocean somewhere," he added.
In the mid-1960s, the Soviet Space Institute (IKI) was formed amid the 20th-century space race between the US and USSR.
After the US reached the moon in 1969, the IKI turned its attention towards Venus and sent up a series of probes in the 1970s and 80s.
Some survived the trip and sent data back to Earth before the programme was stopped.
Only one probe managed to land on Venus and operated for 50 minutes on the planet's surface.
Another labeled V71 No. 671, launched in 1972, failed to put itself on Venus' trajectory and was stranded closer to home, according to NASA.
Several pieces of debris were created from V-71 No. 671's failure, with at least two having already fallen out of orbit, but the cylindrical entry capsule - which NASA has named as Kosmos 482 - is what researchers believe will plummet back to Earth this weekend.
'What goes up must come down,' Mr Sorge said.
'We're here talking about it more than 50 years later, which is another proof point for the importance of debris mitigation and making sure we're having that dialogue (as a space community) because what you put up in space today might affect us for decades to come.'
