Latest news with #VIXVolatilityIndex
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Wayfair Inc. (W) Stock Forecasts
Summary After almost two months of dramatic market swings -- including one point at which the S&P 500 had fallen 19% from its all-time high -- the closely-watched VIX Volatility Index has declined back below its historical average of 20. Meanwhile, stock prices have recovered most of the lost ground and the benchmark S&P has again turned positive for the year. We can't say the recent downdraft was unexpected. Indeed, in our 2025 Market Outlook, we noted that investor complacency was high, that tariffs and trade wars could slow the economy, and that stock valuations were susceptible in the event of a sell-off in the Information Technology sector. That was our "Bearish Case," and certain elements are likely to linger for the next few months, at least. Our "Base Case" called for another year of growth in the U.S. economy (and no recession), declining interest rates, and double-digit EPS growth. Each of those planks in the "Base Case" platform is currently in place. So assuming that the Trump administration gets its economic growth plans firmly on track, there's reason to expect that equity prices can't continue to recover. Back to the market, the current VIX fear index reading is around 18.0, which is again below the 10-year average of 20
Yahoo
07-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The Market Reaction to Trump's Tariffs Signals a Broader Acceptance of Bitcoin's ‘Digital Gold' Narrative
In financial markets, making assumptions based on short-term observations is a fool's errand, as significant trends develop over months and years, not days or weeks. But as investors evaluate bitcoin's role in their portfolios, the events of April are worth analyzing in order to understand the asset's emerging reputation as a store of value. Backdrop of volatility The turbulence sparked by President Trump's tariffs announcement on April 2 sent stock prices plummeting the following day, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 falling 4.8% and 5.4%, respectively. Bitcoin followed suit as the VIX Volatility Index hit levels not seen since the early days of COVID and fears of retaliatory trade measures prevailed. However, bitcoin's price began to recover sharply within days of the announcement, causing its correlation with both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 to fall below 0.50, before those correlations rose again as the April 9 pause on tariffs brought back 'risk-on' mode. Bitcoin's correlations to traditional markets in April Chart: Bitcoin's correlations to traditional markets in April Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Bloomberg (April 01, 2025 to April 30, 2025). 30-day rolling correlations (considering only workdays) between bitcoin (represented by the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price Index) and TradFi indices. This short-term observation matters because it supports the changing nature of how investors perceive bitcoin. While some still categorize bitcoin as a high-beta 'risk-on' asset, institutional sentiment is beginning to reflect a more nuanced understanding. Bitcoin recovered faster than the S&P 500 in the 60 days that followed the COVID outbreak, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the U.S. banking crisis in 2023, events in which it demonstrated resilience and a profile increasingly aligned with that of gold during stress. These periods of decoupling establish a pattern where bitcoin displays its antifragile properties, allowing allocators to protect capital during systemic events, while still outpacing the performance of stocks, bonds and gold over the long haul. Bitcoin vs. traditional assets, 5-year returns Chart: Bitcoin vs. traditional assets, 5-year returns Source: CaseBitcoin, Return data from May 1, 2020 to April 30, 2025 ( The path to digital gold Maybe more compelling than bitcoin's longer-term returns are the long-term portfolio effects. Even a small allocation to bitcoin within a traditional 60% stock/40% bond portfolio would have improved risk-adjusted returns in 98% of rolling three-year periods over the last decade. And these risk-adjusted returns are markedly higher over longer time frames, suggesting that bitcoin's volatility from positive returns more than counterbalances short-term drawdowns. It might still be premature to claim that bitcoin has been universally accepted as 'digital gold,' but that narrative, supported by its response to geopolitical events, is gaining momentum. The combination of bitcoin's fixed supply, liquidity, accessibility and immunity to central bank interference gives it properties no traditional asset can replicate. This should be appealing to any investor, large or small, in search of portfolio diversification and long-term wealth preservation.
Yahoo
08-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Exchange operator Cboe's quarterly profit climbs as hedging activity surges
By Prakhar Srivastava and Laura Matthews (Reuters) -Exchange operator Cboe Global Markets reported a rise in fourth-quarter adjusted profit on Friday, driven by increased options trading as investors sought to hedge against risks from economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Cboe's options trading segment revenue grew 3% in the quarter, compared with last year, while futures revenue fell 7%. Heightened concerns about interest-rate cuts, a potential trade war and geopolitical tensions kept investors on edge despite a strong market rally, driving demand for hedging. "With our diverse suite of products, we are well situated to help market participants navigate the elevated uncertainty we're witnessing across the market and geopolitical environment," said Fredric Tomczyk, chief executive officer at Cboe, on a call with analysts. Tomczyk said the "markedly different tone" from the new administration in Washington, with deregulation and tax cuts, was fostering bullish sentiment. However, he cautioned that significant geopolitical uncertainty remains, which along with recent tariffs and a record number of executive orders is injecting volatility into the market. Shares in Cboe were up around 2.4% at $211.91 at 1623 GMT. Average daily volumes in S&P 500 index options increased 7%, while those of options linked to the VIX Volatility Index, Wall Street's "fear gauge", rose 12% from a year earlier. Average daily volumes in total company options increased to 15.7 million contracts in the reported quarter from 14.9 million a year earlier. Demand for options contracts opened on the same day they expire, or 0DTE (zero-days-to-expiry), rose 6%. On an adjusted basis, the exchange operator's net income allocated to common shareholders totaled $221.2 million, or $2.10 per share. Analysts on average were expecting earnings of $2.11 per share, according to data compiled by LSEG. Cboe's fourth-quarter net revenue rose 5% to $524.5 million, also broadly in line with expectations for $525.88 million. Revenue from North America equities rose 10% to $94.9 million. SUCCESSION Tomczyk said he and the board engaged a search firm late last year to assist with finding his successor, with both internal and external candidates being considered. Tomczyk became CEO in September 2023 when Edward Tilly resigned after failing to disclose personal relationships with colleagues, bringing his decade of leadership of the company to an abrupt end. Once a new CEO is appointed Tomczyk plans to remain a director on the board, he said.
