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National Geographic
5 days ago
- Science
- National Geographic
9 celestial events this June's, from a strawberry moon to interstellar clouds
The Milky Way and its core region in constellations Sagittarius and Scorpius, as seen from Dinosaur Provincial Park in Alberta, Canada. Composite Photograph by Alan Dyer, VW Pics/Science Photo Library Whether you're waking up early to spot Venus in the pre-dawn sky, staying up late to peep the Lagoon Nebula, or spending the whole night on the hunt for meteors, June's night sky has something for every stargazer. Here's what to keep an eye out for when you look up this month. (9 must-see night sky events to look forward to in 2025.) Venus at greatest western elongation—June 1 On June 1, Venus will reach its farthest distance west of the sun from the perspective of Earth—a point known as greatest western elongation. This is a particularly good time to get a glimpse at Earth's neighboring planet, as it won't be drowned out by sunlight. In some time zones, the exact timing of this event occurs on May 31, while in others, it's on June 1. But the best time to view Venus is just before dawn, when it rises in the eastern sky in the Northern Hemisphere, or the northeastern sky if you're in the Southern Hemisphere. A "well-placed" globular cluster—June 2 Missed seeing the "well-placed" globular clusters in May? The Great Hercules Cluster, or Messier 13, reaches its highest point in the night sky on June 2, putting it in a prime viewing position. Discovered in 1714 by English astronomer Edmond Halley, for whom the iconic Halley's Comet is named, the Great Hercules Cluster is a collection of more than 100,000 stars densely packed into a glittering, spheroidic shape. While it can be hard to discern with the naked eye, it's easily visible through binoculars. Daytime Arietids meteor shower peak—June 7 As its name implies, the prolific daytime Arietid meteor shower doesn't peak at night, but during the day. That, of course, makes most of the meteors nearly impossible to see. But there's still a chance of spotting shooting stars in the predawn hours on June 7, just before the estimated peak during the daylight hours. And if you want to "see" the daytime activity, visit the NASA Meteor Shower Portal and look for colored dots—those indicate meteors associated with the active meteor shower. The June full moon, known as the Strawberry Moon, rises over St Paul's Cathedral and The Shard in central London on June 22, 2024. Photograph by Peter Macdiarmid, eyevine/Redux The full Strawberry Moon rises behind the Empire State Building in New York City on June 21, 2024. Photograph by Gary Hershorn, Getty Images This month's full moon, known as the "Strawberry Moon," won't take on the red hue of its namesake fruit, but it is lovely nonetheless. The nickname, popularized by the Farmers' Almanac, is derived from Indigenous traditions in North America that link full moons to annual harvesting and hunting events. In June, that's the ripening of wild strawberries. (Learn about the lunar cycle and the origins of each month's full moon name.) Old European nicknames for the June full moon include the Mead or Honey Moon. According to NASA, this might be tied to the honey harvesting that happens during this month—and it could be the inspiration for the modern honeymoon, as ancient traditions called for June weddings. Mars and Regulus meet, and a "well-placed" Butterfly Cluster—June 16 Mars and the bright star Regulus—known for its colorful twinkling—will have a close encounter on June 16, with peak viewing occurring around 90 minutes after sunset. Regulus is a four-star system, as opposed to a single star, but only three of those four individual stars will be visible during this event through the eye of a telescope. Then, around midnight, the Butterfly Cluster will be "well-placed" in the night sky, reaching its highest point above the horizon. To see this butterfly-shaped open cluster of stars, grab a pair of binoculars. The summer Milky Way filling the night sky at Waterton Lakes National Park in Alberta, Canada. The pink glow of the Lagoon Nebula can be seen above the horizon, in the Milky Way galaxy's core. Composite Photograph by Alan Dyer, VW Pics/UIG/Getty Images Star clusters aren't the only "well-placed" celestial objects this month. The Lagoon Nebula, or Messier 8, is a swirling cloud of interstellar gas where stars are born, located some 5,200 light years away. It reaches its highest point in the night sky around midnight on June 22. From mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, the Lagoon Nebula can sometimes be seen with the naked eye under ideal viewing conditions. Otherwise, binoculars or a telescope is the best way to spot them. Prime stargazing conditions—June 25 On this night, there's a new moon lunar cycle, which means the sky will be plenty dark for stargazing. While brighter celestial objects like planets and stars are typically visible through the moon's light pollution, dimmer ones like distant galaxies and nebulae will be easier to see during the new moon, particularly through a telescope. (These are the best stargazing sites in North America.) If you're a photographer, this is the perfect time to try your hand at astrophotography. In the Northern Hemisphere, the Milky Way's galactic core rises high in the night sky throughout the summer, making it a prime focal point. A Bootid meteor seen photographed in June 2018. Photograph by Steve Dudrow, Getty Images The Bootids are a notoriously variable meteor shower, producing astonishing displays of hundreds of shooting stars some years, and just a few other years. If you're willing to try your luck, the meteor shower is expected to peak on June 27. And luck is already on your side—the moon will be barely illuminated as a waxing crescent, so it won't impede your view of fainter shooting stars. Close approach of the moon and Mars—June 30 To close out the month, the waxing crescent moon and Mars will put on a little show. Our celestial neighbors will pass within 1°16' of each other; if you hold your arm out fully toward the moon and stick your pinky finger up, your finger's width is about the distance between the pair, so you'll be able to see them simultaneously through binoculars. Keep an eye out for the "earthshine" phenomenon, where light reflected from Earth makes the unlit part of the crescent moon glow faintly. This most commonly happens just after sunset or right before sunrise.
National Geographic
5 days ago
- National Geographic
These are the best stargazing sites in North America
Travelers are increasingly lifting their eyes to nighttime skies in search of impressive celestial phenomena and, perhaps, more. 'Looking up at the night sky is sort of what makes us human,' says Ruskin Hartley, the executive director of DarkSky International, a nonprofit group based in Tucson, Arizona. 'We have done it for millennia. Every single culture has told their first stories in the stars overhead, and they found meaning in the stars. Today, the vast majority of people are robbed of that.' On a clear night last November, I spent over two hours in a dome atop nearly 7,000-foot-tall Kitt Peak, an hour outside of Tucson, peering through one of their 20-plus telescopes. The moonless night along with the high and dry climate enabled our guide to share bright and clear highlights, including the Andromeda galaxy, the ringed planet Saturn with several of its moons, and a globular cluster. Outside the dome, we simply marveled at the stunning clarity of our galaxy home, the Milky Way. In the United States, 99 percent of us live in areas impacted by artificial light pollution. While dark skies are essential for many nocturnal creatures and ecosystems, recent studies have also touted the health benefits of darkness for humans. To help preserve and better connect us with this at-risk natural resource, DarkSky International has designated 155 dark sky places across the United States, six in Canada, and two in Mexico for stellar stargazing and efforts to preserve darkness. The Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park is the first binational international Dark Sky Park. Photograph by Alan Dyer, VWPics/Alamy Stock Photo In search of the darkest sanctuaries Among the five categories of dark sky certification, sanctuaries meet the most stringent requirements, says Amber Harrison, DarkSky Places program manager, and many are in the western part of the continent in less populated areas. Designated in 2024, the world's largest international sanctuary—half the size of New Jersey—is in the high desert of the Oregon Outback. This 2.5-million-acre sanctuary includes broad and flat basins, mountain ranges with elevations from 4,700 to 8,000 feet, and alkali lakes, says Dawn Nilson, a DarkSky delegate who consulted on the process. 'With little or no light pollution, you see these celestial objects against an inky black, smooth canvas,' says Nilson. 'What's particularly special about the Outback is you get to see all those stars reflected on flat, calm, alkali lakes.' Nilson usually doesn't take her telescope along because there's no need. 'With your naked eye, you can see the many colors of the stars and star-making factories, like the Orion Nebula and the Lagoon Nebula.' In this pristine darkness, you might even spy your shadow cast by starlight. (9 must-see night sky events to look forward to in 2025) Astro adventurers should be experienced 'remote travelers,' cautions Nilson, because there may be no cell service or facilities nearby. 'Always bring more layers for warmth than you think are necessary,' she advises. Outfitters, such as Bend's Wanderlust Tours, offer guided excursions, and Rose City Astronomers (partnered with the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry) hosts star parties. Oregon Astronomy will team you with telescopes and a NASA ambassador. Other U.S. sanctuaries include Minnesota's Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness and Maine's Katahdin Woods and Waters National Monument, the only one east of the Mississippi. Rainbow Bridge National Monument is one of Utah's 28 certified dark sky communities and parks. Photograph by Ralph Ehoff, Getty Images Southwest stargazing options In the southwest, the Greater Big Bend International Dark Sky Reserve spreads 15,000 square miles across southwestern Texas and Mexico and is the largest Dark Sky reserve. You'll find a constellation of guided options, from public telescope viewing at the McDonald Observatory at the University of Texas at Austin to ranger-led night walks in Big Bend National Park to starry nights with DarkSky Texas. On any dark sky-focused adventures, we all carry 'a superpower,' says Nilson: The human capacity for night vision. However, that scotopic, or low-level light vision, takes at least 30 minutes to activate fully and can be negated by a white flashlight or a glance at an illuminated screen. Seasoned stargazers recommend using red-light flashlights and scheduling your excursion during the new moon phase for optimal darkness. (A practical guide to stargazing) With 28 certified dark sky communities and parks, Utah has the highest concentration of certified skygazing options in North America. That includes Rainbow Bridge National Monument, one of the world's largest natural bridges and also a sanctuary. The catch: Getting there requires a two-hour boat ride on Lake Powell followed by a one-hour hike. The site is considered sacred by many indigenous cultures, including the Pueblo of Zuni and the Hopi Tribe. The Pleiades star cluster and the other stars of Taurus rising above Mount Kerkeslin in Jasper National Park. Composite Photograph by Alan Dyer, VWPics/Redux Look to northern skies Straddling the Canadian border, the Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park is the first binational international Dark Sky Park and includes Montana's Glacier National Park and Canada's Waterton Lakes National Park. Known for its mountainous scenery and rich biodiversity, the area is a UNESCO-designated World Heritage Site, and both parks are UNESCO Biosphere Reserves. Dark Sky Guides in Waterton Lakes will maximize your viewing, and you can join Glacier's summertime ranger-led astronomy programs. In Quebec's Eastern Townships, guided astronomy activities abound at Parc National du Mont Mégantic, including an aurora borealis show in the AstroLab museum and guided stargazing with telescopes. (Activities are in French.) To achieve reserve status, local municipalities replaced 2,500 light fixtures and reduced local light pollution by 25 percent. In the park, you can hike to three mountain summits and explore diverse forest ecosystems. In Alberta, Jasper National Park is designated a Dark Sky Preserve by the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada, one of 17 in the country. The town is actually within the preserve's limits. Every October the Jasper Dark Sky Festival takes place, and features a planetarium and telescope viewing, Indigenous music and storytelling, and guided night hikes. The night sky viewing program at Kitt Peak National Observatory. Photograph by Greg Dale, Nat Geo Image Collection The Milky Way over the Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona. Photograph by Babak Tafreshi, Nat Geo Image Collection More easily accessed starry skies Lately, both urban and rural areas are darkening their skies to boost astrotourism. New Brunswick offers 'easy access to dark skies,' says Stéphane Picard of Cliff Valley Astronomy. 'Even in our cities, you're no more than 15 minutes away from a very dark sky.' The province has three dark-sky preserves designated by the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada, including Fundy National Park, known for the highest tides in the world. Other parks and towns are applying for designations to create a coastal stargazing corridor. 'When you're looking towards the Bay of Fundy from the New Brunswick coast, you're facing the southern half of the sky which is where mostly everything arises,' says Picard. 'We call that the rising tides and rising stars region.' The province hosts star parties with telescopes throughout the year. Several jurisdictions have designed stargazing trails, including Tucson's Astro Trail with 11 dark sky experiences and Montana's Trail to the Stars with 45 recommended sites. With 12 Dark Sky Parks and another dozen working toward certification, Colorado has a self-guided 'Experience the Night' itinerary, chock full of daytime activities and night-gazing sites, including Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve. Mexico's first urban night sky place, Joya-La Barreta Ecological Park, between Querétaro and San Miguel de Allende, focuses on educating the public about the value of darkness. (Why Tucson is one of the best places in the world to see the night sky) East Coast residents seeking closer options can head to Pennsylvania's Cherry Springs State Park, which is within the larger Susquehannock State Forest and has laser-guided night sky tours. West Virginia's Watoga State Park's name derives from the Cherokee name for 'starry waters,' and travelers may spy abundant constellations here. As stargazing gains in popularity, DarkSky International has developed its principles of responsible astrotourism, which emphasizes respect for local cultures and environmental health, along with sustainable growth. Hartley hopes that immersive dark sky experiences will inspire people to 'make some simple steps in and around your house and your neighborhood and your city to reclaim a little natural darkness.' (Big Sky, brighter stars: Why Montana is 2025's ultimate stargazing destination) Amy Brecount White is a Virginia-based writer with work seen in National Geographic, Smithsonian Magazine, National Parks Traveler, Sierra Magazine, and more. She focuses on travel, particularly immersive outdoor adventures and moments full of wonder. See more at -
Newsweek
02-05-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
White House Uses Viral Gorilla Debate to Boast About Trump's Deportations
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The White House has used the resurging viral "100 men and one gorilla debate" to publicize President Donald Trump's record on immigration. A White House-branded meme shared Thursday on its official X page featured an image of several immigrants boarding a plane, paired with a photo of the president in the foreground. It plays on the subject of a long-standing debate about whether a gorilla could be defeated by 100 men. "100 men vs 1 gorilla is still up for debate. Meanwhile, 142,000+ illegal alien criminals went up against 1 President Trump—They all got deported," the post reads. The official White House account shared a meme ((L) on X Thursday that featured an image of several immigrants boarding a plane, paired with a photo of the president looming over. File photo of Gorilla... The official White House account shared a meme ((L) on X Thursday that featured an image of several immigrants boarding a plane, paired with a photo of the president looming over. File photo of Gorilla (R). More Gerard Lacz / VWPics/The White House/VWPCS Why It Matters President Donald Trump has pledged to carry out large-scale deportations, and his administration is looking to remove from the country millions of immigrants who have no legal status. An estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants are living in the U.S, according to Pew Research Center. The White House said in the post that more than 142,000 migrants without legal status have been removed from the U.S. Newsweek has contacted the Department of Homeland Security for comment (DHS) for further comment to verify the claim. The apparent triumphalism of the meme will potentially offend Americans who might support the aims of Trump's immigration policy, but who are uncomfortable with the lack of due process in some cases. What To Know The Trump Administration has apprehended more than 158,000 immigrants without legal status in 2025, including more than 600 members of the Tren de Aragua gang, according to DHS. The online debate surrounding 100 unarmed men vs a gorilla regained traction after an X user initiated the conversation with a viral post. The user @DreamChasnMike wrote in a X post on April 25: "i think 100 n***** could beat 1 gorilla everybody just gotta be dedicated to the s***." The post has garnered over 290 million views as of May, sparking public debate on social media. YouTuber MrBeast joined the conversation by posting a mock video thumbnail titled "100 Men vs. a Gorilla," saying he needed "Need 100 men to test …" PETA has pushed back against MrBeast's proposal to bring the viral TikTok debate—'100 men vs. one gorilla'—into real life. The man vs. gorilla emerged on Reddit in 2020, in the subreddit r/whowouldwin, titled 100 men versus 1 silverback gorilla, according to Forbes. What People Are Saying MrBeast said in a post on X: Need 100 men to test this, any volunteers? PETA said in a post on X: 100 men vs. a gorilla? Maybe try 100 reasons to leave animals out of your content instead … GitHub Projects Community said in a post on X: "Showing the gorilla how to use No-as-a-Service (Naas) to politely decline Mr. Beast's next viral stunt: "100 men vs. a gorilla!" Because even gorillas deserve the right to say "No." X user @justky1018 said: "What if 100 men saw a therapist instead." What Happens Next The Trump administration will continue to focus on mass deportation policy and is expected to ramp up removals.
Forbes
30-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Tariff Uncertainties – Part 2: The Link To Inflation
Hands of a person checking the April 2025 'Liberation Day' reciprocal tariffs list from President ... More Donald Trump's government, on a smartphone screen. (Photo by: Nano Calvo/VW Pics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images) Many people assume it must be true. But some disagree. There is evidence for both views, but much is unclear, and that uncertainty has confounded the Federal Reserve, unsettled the financial markets, and alarmed the general public. There is a lot to sort out, and the discussion is lengthy – so we'll begin with an executive summary. The case for tariff-induced inflation is straightforward: adding a tariff tax, like any tax, should raise end-user prices on affected products. But the evidence is weak, for two reasons. First, the U.S. has been in a low-tariff mode for almost 90 years, and there is little recent experience to draw on in order to forecast the effect of broad-based high-tariff policies on a 21st century globalized, tech-heavy, service-based economy. Second, although some evidence is available for the 2018-2019 tariffs — which were part of a mini-trade-war with China – the calculations show surprisingly small inflation effects. And there is no correlation between customs duties (perhaps the most solid data on tariff impact) and the inflation rate. There is also a methodological weakness. Models designed to predict the effect of tariffs on prices mostly ignore the possibility of behavioral adjustments by consumers, producers, retailers, and regulators which tend to 'dampen' the potential inflationary effect. The case against an inflationary outcome is based on the idea that price increases due to tariffs on imported products may be offset by changes in the exchange rate between the exporting country's currency and the dollar. Devaluation of export countries' currencies does appear to have taken place when U.S. tariffs were raised in 2018 (as 'trade theory' predicts), which may account for the weak inflationary impact noted above. And correlations of exchange rate adjustments (devaluations) with increasing tariff revenues are moderately positive. That said — the scope of the recent tariff proposals is very large compared to past trends. The surge in prices could be much greater than currency offsets could compensate for. This may cause 'nonlinear' responses, which could produce entirely new patterns of behavior. In fact, the initial response to the latest tariff proposals in the currency markets was the opposite of what 'theory' calls for – instead of appreciating, the dollar index has fallen by about 2.5% since the 'Liberation Day' announcement. The prior column reviewed the Certainties related to tariffs – the Known Knowns that all sides can agree on. The inflation question is one of the most important Known Unknowns associated with tariff policies. That is the subject of this Part 2. The details follow. Are tariffs inherently inflationary? For many economists and policy-makers (and for the headline writers), the answer is obvious. Indeed, it seems self-evident. If a 10% tariff is imposed on imported products… The argument is logical, even tautological. Yes, the real world is messy. But aside from delays or 'frictions' or various adjustments (reviewed below) which might cushion the impact of a tariff tax, it seems clear that the direction of the pressure on prices must be upwards – i.e., inflationary. (Per Summers, this is 'something that almost all economists agree on.') The only dispute might be over how much of an increase consumers would see in the end. Let us call this Construct Number 1. There is, however, another way of looking at the question – which can seem just as logical – and which leads to a different answer. Some economists assert that tariffs do not cause inflation. The reasoning can be complex and hard to follow, and sometimes ideological. But one counterargument stands out clear and clean. This is Construct Number 2. Again, it seems logical. If a tariff imposed by the U.S. raises the price of products imported from Country X by 10%, but the currency of Country X devalues by 10% relative to the dollar, the end-price to U.S. consumers would be unchanged. If this is so, it also implies that tariffs are ineffectual. As liberal economist Joseph Stiglitz commented with respect to a US/China tariff war: 'A higher [American] tariff will result in a depreciation in China's exchange rate, partially undoing any hoped-for benefits.' Thus even some opponents of tariffs accept Construct 2, and cite it as a reason to reject them. Of course the word 'partially' muddies the picture somewhat, but again the direction of the pressure on prices is clear – in this case, it is downward. Both arguments seem internally coherent. Which better describes how tariffs actually work? There are three places to look for answers The leadership of the Federal Reserve has weighed in cautiously in favor of Construct 1. Chairman Powell sees inflation 'likely' in the forecast. So, too, Wall Street. Wall Street Estimates for 2025 Peak Inflation Prediction markets project an 80% chance that inflation will exceed 3% this year, and a 60% chance that it will not exceed 4% – roughly in line with Wall Street experts. Then there is the financial market itself, a vast information processing engine, sorting and compiling millions of investors' interested viewpoints. The markets generally react somewhat negatively to tariff announcements, but the violence of the reaction to 'Liberation Day' was extraordinary. The Liberation Day Crash A decisive expression of unhappiness, certainly – though how much of this is based on inflation fears (as opposed to concerns about a recession or other factors) – is hard to say. Tariffs on China in 2018 and 2019 (retained thereafter) were the first significant upward revision in rates in several decades. They applied to a substantial trade flow and resulted in a tripling of tariff revenues compared with the average of the previous several decades. Tariff Revenues 2000-2024 One academic study of the episode found that by December 2018, import tariffs were costing US consumers an additional $3.2 billion per month. Another study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that on an annual basis… The Boston Federal Reserve performed a more granular analysis and concluded that the 2018 tariffs raised the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index – the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation – by 0.1% to 0.2%. Economists have scrambled to model today's frequently changing tariff scenarios and forecast the impact on consumers. Yale University's Budget Lab estimates the cost in lost purchasing power of the Liberation Day tariffs at $3800 per household. This appears to be the source for Janet Yellen's claim that 'estimates suggest' an 'impact in the region of $4000 per household.', Larry Summers takes it much further. In an interview with Fortune Magazine, he launched this screamer [Note: The tariff-induced 'loss' that Summers projects is larger than the entire U.S. GDP.] Even the lower numbers cited by Yale and Yellen are questionable. A rough estimate based on the 2018 data gives a figure of about $30/month increase in the cost of living per household ($50 Bn in consumer 'impact' spread over 132 million households). The Tax Foundation arrives at a similar estimate of the impact for tariff revenues per household. Tariff Collections Per Household Of course, these numbers would go up with the higher tariffs proposed. The Tax Foundation calculates that the average effective tariff rate could rise four and a half times, from 2.5% to 11.5% (allowing for some 'behavioral adjustments' – described in the next section) — which could push tariff tax per household above $1000/yr. In terms of inflation rates, the Boston Fed study estimated that the 2025 proposals could add from 0.5% to as much as 2.2% to the Core PCE, depending on various scenarios – and 'keeping all else in the economy constant.' The Yale Budget Lab model yielded a similar conclusion: 'the price level from all 2025 tariffs rises by 2.3% in the short-run.' 'The short run' – 'all else constant' … These economic models accept characteristic limitations, which call for critical attention in interpreting the results. There are more than a dozen 'official' inflation metrics used by the Federal Reserve in various contexts. The range of figures they produce varies often by a factor of 2 to 1. Here is how things stood in December 2021, for example. Range of Inflation Metrics Which 'inflation' should we target? This is a general problem, which most economists ignore. But when a model forecasts a change in the inflation rate of 0.1%, 0.8% or even 2%, it may be less than the variance across this range of alternative metrics. This should call for caution in interpreting the significance of the results. It is an under-emphasized truism: High prices are not the same as inflation. Talk of 'high prices' refers to the current price level – regardless of how fast or slow prices became high. 'Inflation' refers to the rate of change in prices. Prices can stay high even if inflation slows down or stops, because inflation measures the change in prices, not their level. This is relevant here because most observers accept that a tariff increase creates only a one-time elevation in prices – a 'bump' – not an ongoing speed-up in future price increases. The surge is described as 'temporary' even by those who are generally hostile to tariff increases (NY Times, 4/14/25). Fed Chairman Powell has revived the controversial word 'transitory' in this context. 'Transitory' seems to apply in the case of the 2018 tariffs. Another study showed that the cost impact on 'final goods' lasted only 4 quarters – and in fact, the tariff shock was found to have produced 'a one-time rise in the price-level occurring' in the quarter following the imposition of the tariff. The effect appears in quarters 2 through 4 only because of the way that inflation is measured on a year-over-year basis. After 4 quarters, the effect is slightly deflationary. Inflation in a Hypothetical Scenario of a 20% Across-the-Board Tariff on China Viewed in this light, a one-time tariff-induced rise in prices would not qualify as 'inflation.' It is estimated that imports account for about 8% of the Fed's preferred inflation metric — the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) – and just 10% of the Core PCE (excluding food and energy). The effect of an X% tariff tax on imports translates to about one tenth of X% impact on the PCE. The model results seem to validate this. The average 22-24% tariff rate cited by some (at the high end) for 'Liberation Day' scenarios would correlate with the one-time PCE increase of 2.2% cited in the Boston study, or the 2.3% increase projected by the Yale study. [The indirect costs of tariffs, when they apply to goods used as inputs to finished consumer products, may increase this effect.] Inflation is a notoriously complex phenomenon, conceptually and empirically. Like a fever, it is a symptom that can have many causes. The (small? transitory?) impact of tariff increases may be overwhelmed by more general disinflationary trends, driven by declines in energy prices (down almost 20% since January), rent (down 20% since last summer) and consumer credit costs (rates on credit card balances, auto loans, mortgages are all down significantly in the past three quarters). Tax relief would contribute to the downward trend in the cost of living (even though most taxes are not included in the PCE). And if the Fed does reduce interest rates later this year it would further ease inflation. Most models assume that all other sources of price pressure are absent or held constant, but this is not realistic. It may be hard to detect the presumed inflationary up-signal of tariffs amidst a flood of down-signals from other sources. Economists like to distinguish between so-called 'partial equilibrium models' and 'general equilibrium models.' In the case of tariff studies, partial equilibrium models assume that except for the tariff increase 'nothing else changes.' General equilibrium models take into account the responses and adjustments by other actors in the system, like consumers and competing producers. All of the studies cited here rely on partial equilibrium models. The Boston study acknowledges this. The following table summarizes some of the modeling simplifications that are relevant for forecasting tariff impacts. Models vs Reality Retailers do actually absorb part of the tariff tax. Consumers do substitute. When French champagne is dear (as the British would say), we drink Californian. Demand is elastic. When eggs are expensive, people buy fewer eggs. Partial equilibrium models assume no adjustment to higher prices by consumers, competing producers, retailers or regulators – and this is a significant loss of realism, which most studies admit. Collectively, these factors may collectively provide a large cushion against inflation. The Tax Foundation study estimates that 'behavioral factors' would reduce the impact of the Liberation Day tariffs – measured as the 'average effective tariff rate' — by almost 40%. But the biggest factor missing from the models is the one that Construct 2 is based on: shifts in exchange rates. There is considerable evidence that tariff-induced currency adjustment does (sometimes) take place. In 2018-2019 the US imposed new tariffs of 15.1 percent on average on imports from China. Average tariff rates overall reached about 3%. The 2018 Tariffs The Dollar appreciated, as theory predicts. The DXY index (which compares the dollar to a basket of hard currencies) gained 'up to 10% during tariff announcement windows in 2018 and 4% in 2019.' When the tariffs were announced in April 2018, both the Yuan and the Euro fell more than 10% from their Q1 peaks. Impact of 2018:2019 Tariffs on Exchange Rates The effect was broad-based. Almost all other currencies devalued relative to the dollar. (Some of this effect may be due to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, but the Fed increases were modest – only about 50 basis points – over this time period.) Currency Devaluations 2018-2019 A recent academic study of the 2018 episode detailed the inverse relationship between U.S. tariff measures and the Renminbi-Dollar exchange rate. Chinese Currency Devaluation to Offset Tariffs Each tariff 'pulse' tended to push the currencies further apart – the Dollar up and the Yuan down – though the effect was often felt only a few months later. The authors concluded that these currency movements were indeed due in large part to tariff offsets - especially for the Chinese side of the equation. It is still early to expect to see major exchange rate shifts in response to the Liberation Day tariffs. Nevertheless, the Yuan has weakened a bit, falling to its lowest level since 2007. The value of the Yuan is closely managed by the Chinese government, but not without constraints. There is reason to believe that the offset mechanism may not be as potent in 2025 as it was in the prior episode. In early 2018, the renminbi was quite strong relative to the historical trend, and there was latitude to allow for depreciation to offset the tariff hikes. In 2025, the situation is different. The Chinese economy has struggled of late, and the Yuan is already much weaker. Beijing may have less room to maneuver rates downwards without risking other financial consequences (capital flight, financial instability). First of all, with respect to the models, what is striking about these studies is the rather modest impact they project. A bump of 0.1% in the PCE is practically de minimus. Even an increase of 1-2% in the inflation rate is arguably more of a perturbation than a game-changing crisis, and if the increase is spread out over time by retailers temporarily absorbing some of the cost, the impact would be muted – even before considering the other 'behavioral factors.' The net figures for estimated 'consumer impact' in many of these studies would be tiny rounding errors for a $30 Trillion economy. As for the hard data – actual tariff revenues were about $80 Bn last year (2024). True, that was three times higher than the pre-2017 average – but it is still less than 3/10ths of 1% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product. Double or triple it… and it still may not register as more than a passing inconvenience. [The U.S. GDP grew by almost 3% last year.] As for the link to inflation… Prices probably will go up. But will tariffs cause sustained inflation? If these are one-time increases, the inflationary effect may be quite fleeting. Over the past 7 years of tariff activism, the correlation of tariff revenues with inflation is practically zero. Correlation of Tariff Revenues with Inflation On the other hand, tariff revenues do correlate moderately well with the Yuan/Dollar exchange rate, lagged by two quarters. Correlation of Tariff Revenues with Chinese Currency Depreciation Against the $ The other 'behavioral' adjustments mentioned above will also tend to 'dampen inflation estimates' (as the Boston Fed study puts it). …things may well be 'different this time' – for several reasons. First of all, the Liberation Day shock factor is quite large. It envisions a high-tariff regime the country has not seen for almost a century, an abrupt shift after decades of relative tariff policy quiescence. Small changes can be cushioned and 'absorbed' by equilibrium-seeking market mechanisms. Very large shocks can break things. In engineering terms, this may cause a transition from linear responses (smooth, orderly, predictable) to nonlinear responses (violent and unpredictable) which cause major changes in system behavior. Second, there are important geopolitical concerns and implications associated with these new tariffs. If we are entering a period of a real 'trade war' where tariffs as weaponized by both sides to achieve all sorts of non-economic objectives (immigration control, fentanyl suppression, decoupling from China, the Taiwan question), the response to tariffs becomes even more unpredictable. Third, as noted, the natural offset to tariffs — compensating exchange rate adjustments – may be less powerful this time because so many countries are already operating with severely undervalued currencies. China in particular may not have the policy freedom to set its exchange rates much lower. Finally, the violence of the Liberation Day reactions may jolt public inflation expectations upwards, which some at the Fed believe could ignite a more sustained inflation. According to the Conference Board 'the average 12-month inflation expectations reached 7% in April—the highest since November 2022, when the US was experiencing extremely high inflation.' It's also good to keep in mind what is the most fundamental simplification of macroeconomic forecasting: these models average the effects of tariffs across an incredibly diverse economy, smoothing out the impacts on individual participants — and obscuring the fact that there will certainly be some winners and some big losers in all this. The pain will not be uniformly distributed. The tariff-inflation link remains for now a Known Unknown. Based on the murky findings of the studies cited in this column, my guess is that direct consumer inflation will be a minor consequence of the proposed tariff policies (if they are carried through). The larger impact will be a disruption of global supply chains, which may create shortages and temporary price spikes affecting specific products (think avian flu and egg prices), but it will not lead to sustained inflation. At lot of this is broadly psychological – which makes it dangerous. The new tariff proposals have created huge uncertainties for businesses trying to navigate a global economy that is suddenly in an uproar, and it has injected raw volatility into the financial markets, which has unsettled the public. The psychological effects will probably outweigh the actual impact on prices. Inflation is likely to be one of the less important consequences of Liberation Day. Further reading – see Part 1 of this series
Buzz Feed
22-04-2025
- Entertainment
- Buzz Feed
55 Super Creepy Pictures Of Abandoned Places That Are Giving Me The Chills
Have you ever driven past an abandoned house or mall and wondered what's left? Urban explorers are people who actually venture inside. And while you may be too afraid to actually enter an abandoned place yourself, the photos are utterly fascinating. Here are 55 creepy pictures from abanonded places: 1. This decaying kindergarten in Kopachi, a ghost town near Chernobyl: 2. The deserted swim hall at the 1936 Berlin Olympic Village: 3. A cabinet of autopsy results in Ospedale al Mare, an abandoned hospital in Venice: 4. This abandoned home in New Orleans: 5. This abandoned Hollywood Hills mansion, which once belonged to John Powers Middleton (whose billionaire father owns the Phillies): 6. This strange graffiti inside a deserted school: 7. The abandoned Galaxy Ghost Ship Hotel, from the Koh Chang Laguna resort in Thailand: 8. And here's the Galaxy after it caught on fire in 2024: 9. And here's a close-up: 10. These abandoned homes that have been reclaimed by nature in China: 11. These forlorn UFO-shaped houses in Taiwan: 12. And a closer look inside one of the UFOs: 13. This hallway in the old hospital wing on Ellis Island: 14. Inside the allegedly haunted Waverly Hills Sanatorium in Louisville: 15. This forgotten chateau in France: 16. And inside the chateau's dining room: 17. Decaying decor from the shutdown theme park Wonderland Eurasia in Turkey: 18. And more ruins from Wonderland Eurasia: 19. This abandoned Range Rover in the woods of England: 20. And here's a look inside the car: 21. This crumbling Alpenhaus at Beelitz-Heilstätten, an old lung sanatorium in Germany: 22. The derelict dining room inside the Alpenhaus: 23. Vela Gialla, a skyscraper that was reportedly the Neapolitan mafia's stronghold in Italy: 24. Savaşan village, a sunken city in Turkey that's underwater because of a dam that was built: 25. This field of forsaken electric cars in China: 26. This forlorn factory in Germany: 27. These derelict phonebooths in London: 28. This forgotten bike-sharing yard in China: 29. This deserted house on Sazan Island in Albania: 30. This deserted motel along Route 66 in California: 31. This empty pool inside an abandoned Soviet mining settlement: Picture Alliance / dpa/picture alliance via Getty Images 32. This sailboat in Panama that the fish have reclaimed: MARTIN BERNETTI / AFP via Getty Images 33. This abandoned playboy mansion: Thomas Weakley / Via 34. The decaying Fort Wayne Hotel ballroom in Detroit: Timothy Fadek / Corbis via Getty Images 35. This vacant village in in Germany: Picture Alliance / dpa/picture alliance via Getty Images 36. This empty pool at a mansion that used to belong to a police chief in Mexico: Univision Noticias / Via 37. This deserted pub in London: Carl Court / Getty Images 38. This waterlogged mall in Bangkok: Nurphoto / NurPhoto via Getty Images 39. This forsaken train station in Spain: VW Pics / VW Pics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images 40. This room filled with gas masks at Chernobyl: Bildagentur-online / Universal Images Group via Getty Images 41. Inside the auditorium of an abandoned high school in Detroit: Timothy Fadek / Corbis via Getty Images 42. A derelict doctor's office in the ghost town of Humberstone, Chile: VW Pics / VW Pics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images 43. And this old church in Humberstone: Anadolu / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images 44. These abandoned mascots from the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games: GREG BAKER / AFP via Getty Images 45. This deserted mall in North Macedonia: Pierre Crom / Getty Images 46. This preschool that was left behind in Pripyat after Chernobyl: Daniel Berehulak / Getty Images 47. This decaying swing ride at an abandoned amusement park in Cyprus: AMIR MAKAR / AFP via Getty Images 48. These old Soviet space shuttles that were left inside an old launch site in Kazakhstan: Scott Peterson / Getty Images 49. This crumbling church in England: Heritage Images / Getty Images 50. This pool in a deserted mansion: Strange Places / Via 51. The shopping carts rusting inside an abandoned supermarket in the ghost town of Pripyat, Ukraine: Sean Gallup / Getty Images 52. This decaying motel in the California desert: David McNew / Getty Images 53. This abandoned power station in London: Jim Dyson / Getty Images Jim Dyson / Getty Images 54. The desolate restaurant in the Plimhimmon Hotel in Maryland: Aladdin Color Inc / Getty Images 55. And finally, this abandoned admin office in Norway: OLIVIER MORIN / AFP via Getty Images Have you ever been urban exploring? What did you find? Share your experiences in the comments!
