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Business Standard
22-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Where's the stock market headed in bull vs bear battle? An investor guide
As Indian equities whipsaw and struggle to find direction after recovering from recent lows, analysts reckon this consolidation is likely to continue amid opportunities in select pockets. The main focus for investors in this backdrop should be on asset allocation, analysts suggest, with safe-haven assets continuing to shine. The de-escalation of geopolitical tensions with Pakistan and signs of global trade returning to normalcy after the US-China trade deal boosted the risk-on sentiments in the last few trading sessions. Since the lows of April 7, the 30-stock Sensex and Nifty have moved up 15 per cent till May 15. In the last couple of sessions, however, exhaustion has crept in as the frontline indices have not moved much. With the fourth quarter results season largely behind, earnings have been lacklustre apart from a select few, analysts say. Valuations have moderated but are on the rise amid recovery, while a revival in foreign inflows is seen. What's on the bull's radar? While the current volatility is set to remain for the short term, market experts now focus on the strength of India's improving macroeconomic indicators for the next leg of the rally. Markets are now turning their attention to macroeconomic indicators, and the current setup looks broadly supportive, according to Vaibhav Porwal, co-founder of Dezerv, a Mumbai-based wealth management company. Global funds have mopped up stocks worth over ₹31,200 crore in two months, inflation has cooled to a six-year low, the Rupee's gains from a weak dollar, strong tax collections and softer global oil prices are some of the signs, he said. The decline in consumer prices has paved the way for further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), analysts said. "Going forward, we expect markets to take cues from the strength of these macro factors," Porwal noted. The bear's side Bears, in the days ahead, will likely pin their hopes on global geo-political tensions and broader market valuations after the recent market spurt, according to analysts. US President Donald Trump's see-saw on tariff policies is likely to keep traders and investors on the edge. While the conflict with Pakistan has subsided, reports show that Israel is preparing for a potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, weighing on crude oil prices. The broader market still prices in a lot of optimism, Porwal said. "We remain cautious on the mid- and small-cap space from a valuation standpoint. While select businesses in these segments continue to deliver robust growth, the broader basket is pricing in a lot of optimism." Investors playbook Investors, analysts suggest, should consider locking in yields through 2 to 3-year maturity bonds, Porwal said, as fixed income is offering attractive real returns. One should consider allocating 8-10 per cent of their portfolios to gold, and he maintains a large-cap bias on equities. Markets will continue to see mixed activity and investors should consider seeking investment opportunities during dips, says Chouhan. If the market reaches the support level, investors should invest in large banks or non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), capital market-related stocks, to capitalise on the opportunity in the market, he said.
Mint
11-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
India-Pakistan tension: What ceasefire means for Indian stock market in Monday?
Indian stock market: The Indian stock market ended its longest weekly winning streak of 2025, pressured by rising geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan that unsettled investor confidence and pushed indices down. Key domestic benchmarks, the Sensex and Nifty 50, faced significant volatility due to escalating border hostilities. The conflict began on Wednesday after India struck terrorist camps in Pakistan and PoK, responding to a deadly attack in Kashmir last month. Pakistan countered the strikes, leading to ongoing cross-border exchanges between the two nuclear-armed nations. The major equity indices saw significant declines this week, largely due to rising geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan after reports of drone and missile strikes. The market downturn deepened on the week's last trading day, following the Indian Army's announcement of several overnight drone and missile attacks by Pakistani forces, which amplified concerns about a potential escalation. "The Indian markets have been resilient over the years, despite similar situations. Investors should zoom out and look at the markets from a broader perspective. Indian equity markets stand on strong fundamentals and we don't have much to worry about. Well-diversified portfolios will weather this storm,' said Vaibhav Porwal, Co-Founder, Dezerv. According to market experts, markets poised for positive reaction on strategic win against terrorism. The announcement of a 'full and immediate ceasefire' between India and Pakistan marks a significant diplomatic and strategic victory for India in its fight against terrorism. 'This de-escalation removes a key overhang on investor sentiment and is likely to be seen as a major positive development by financial markets,' said Prashanth Tapsi, AVP - Research at Mehta Equities. Historically, markets have shown resilience and a tendency to recover following such geopolitical de-escalations. If the current stability holds same over the next 24–48 hours, with no retaliatory actions or escalatory rhetoric from either side, markets are likely to respond constructively, Tapsi added. Tapsi further added that a gap-up opening of 200–300 points on the benchmark indices is expected on Monday, as investor confidence returns. However, volatility is likely to persist, driven by the ongoing earnings season and global uncertainties—especially tariff-related developments. "Nifty holds above 24000, Technically, now 23500 mark becomes a key make-or-break support. More waterfall of selling expected below the same with Resistance at 24275/24401. Defense and Banking sectors may see renewed buying interest as immediate geopolitical risks subside while Broader indices are also likely to recover recent losses from the past 2–3 sessions, aided by improving sentiment. All eyes would be on FII who turned negative on Friday trading session after continues net buyers in last 2 weeks," he added. Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Economic Times
21-04-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
ETMarkets NRI Talk: Caught in the crossfire - how US-China trade tensions are reshaping NRI investment strategy
Various estimates now peg the odds of a US recession between 40–60%. And should that risk materialise, the downstream effects could be significant — from capital flows to emerging markets to the outlook on global equities and debt. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads As the world's two largest economies lock horns over tariffs and trade policies, the ripple effects are being felt far beyond Washington and Beijing. For Non-Resident Indian (NRI) investors , this escalating geopolitical standoff presents both risks and this exclusive interview, Vaibhav Porwal, Co-Founder of Dezerv, decodes how the US-China trade war is reshaping global investment strategies — from rethinking geographical exposure to leveraging India's manufacturing also shares practical tips on portfolio diversification, gold allocation, and how NRIs can stay resilient amid rising macro volatility . Edited Excerpts - trade tensions between major economies like the US and China affect the global investment landscape for NRIs?A) When two bullies are fighting, it's often best to stay behind the fence and observe how things play out. India has largely maintained a non-aligned said, global trade tensions have a way of rippling through markets — they disrupt supply chains, dampen investor sentiment, and weigh on global estimates now peg the odds of a US recession between 40–60%. And should that risk materialise, the downstream effects could be significant — from capital flows to emerging markets to the outlook on global equities and such times, staying diversified and grounded in long-term fundamentals becomes all the more critical.A) We believe the rate-cut cycle is already underway, and interest rates are headed lower. Major banks have started reducing deposit rates, signaling that the transmission is well in this backdrop, it's a good time to consider locking in a portion of your portfolio in medium-duration bonds — particularly in the 2–3 year can offer a balance of safety and reasonable yield while positioning your portfolio to benefit from the falling rate continues to act as a reliable hedge in volatile macro environments. We recommend allocating 5-10% of your portfolio to the yellow metal as a strategic cushion against geopolitical and currency risks.A) If the trade wars continue for a long time, geographical diversification will not help. It will be a situation where everyone loses. Asset class diversification will work better for equities you can ensure that your portfolio is sufficiently exposed to countries which have heavier reliance on domestic you can ensure that the companies that you have invested in cater to domestic demand. Avoiding expensive valuations without backing growth and stability will be critical to avoid major volatility.A) The global supply chain is being rewritten — and India is in the right place at the right time. The government's ambitions are clear: grow manufacturing's share of GDP to 25%.PLIs, labour reforms, and tax incentives are not just policy talk — they're slowly turning into real capacity on the China+1 strategy, once a buzzword, is now becoming boardroom reality. I recently came across a compelling article highlighting how China's real wages are rising fast, eroding the cost advantage it once enjoyed. India is stepping into that the impact of tariffs were to play out as intended, the implications can be huge. For NRIs, this is an investment this is not a short-term phenomenon. It will be a long drawn process to create a parallel supply chain. Setting up capacities, transfer of technology, and building the manufacturing infrastructure takes time.A) While mutual funds remain HNIs preferred vehicle for investing in equities, there are limitations on taking exposure towards international equity through Mutual through GIFT city many wealth and asset managers are planning to create funds which will invest in global equities. Over the next 1-2 years you should see a lot of these options available.A) The rise of wealth in India's Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities has broadened our client base dramatically across 200+ over 5.3 lakh users rely on our Wealth Monitor App for mutual fund and stock insights, and we are proud to be the primary wealth managers for more than 35% of investors are not passive—they're actively managing their assets, with over 80% engaging in quarterly portfolio strategy is inherently tech-first—leveraging digital channels to ensure seamless service delivery—yet we also recognize that personal touch why we've established physical offices in five major cities, so clients can opt for in-person consultations. This hybrid model supports robust, personalized client engagement while maintaining the efficiency of digital innovation.A) Gold and Medium-term bonds as discussed above should be considered by investors.A) As part of a disciplined investment strategy, equity investments should be staggered over the next few months to smooth out market this context, large-caps present an appealing opportunity as we currently believe they are fairly priced. We advise caution with midcaps and smallcaps since they are still trading above historical we foresee a market driven by bottom-up factors and individual stock performance, active management is key to capitalising opportunities.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
