Latest news with #VictorGao
The Print
a day ago
- Business
- The Print
China is hypocritical on IWT. Just look at how it has maximised upstream water usage
But the threat, dramatic as it may sound, is both hollow and deeply ironic. India has yet to take any concrete steps toward abrogating the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). China, however, has already jumped to Pakistan's defence, positioning itself as a guardian of international water-sharing norms. Yet Beijing's own conduct—marked by unilateralism, secrecy, and hypocrisy—is the opposite of the very norms it now claims to uphold. China has issued a sharp warning to India: If New Delhi unilaterally abrogates the Indus Waters Treaty and denies Pakistan its allocated share of water, Beijing could retaliate by leveraging upstream control over the Brahmaputra River, said Chinese strategic expert Victor Gao. A self-defeating threat China is indeed the upper riparian for several major rivers that flow into India, notably the Indus, Sutlej, and Brahmaputra. However, it's impossible for Beijing to 'turn off the tap'. Most of the water in these river systems doesn't originate from the Tibetan Plateau (which China controls) but comes from precipitation and tributaries within Indian territory. India is not wholly dependent on Chinese-origin flows, especially in the case of the Brahmaputra and Sutlej, where downstream contributions are substantial. Moreover, there is no literal 'tap' for China to turn off. It has already been maximising upstream water usage for years—unilaterally and without accountability. China has built extensive hydropower infrastructure across its river systems, often without informing or consulting downstream neighbours. There is no binding treaty between China and any lower riparian country—including India—to govern river-sharing or ensure predictable flows. In contrast, India and Pakistan have the IWT, one of the few functioning water-sharing treaties in the world. Take, for instance, the Indus River. China has constructed a dam near Demchok, in a region where the river crosses from Tibet into Ladakh. This is outside any treaty framework and certainly outside any formal water-sharing agreement. Ironically, the Indus has been allocated almost entirely to Pakistan under the IWT—yet here is China building a dam on it, without any transparency or consultative process. Even more revealing is the fact that if China does restrict the flow of the Indus and Brahmaputra, the countries that will suffer the most are Pakistan and Bangladesh. China's threat is not just hollow—it is potentially self-defeating. Making good on the threat would hurt its strategic partners in the region far more than it would harm India. Also read: Modi govt mishandled information war. CDS Chauhan's loss admission raises 2 big questions Signalling, not leverage China's track record on regional water cooperation does not inspire confidence. On the one hand, it invokes international law and equitable sharing in the context of the IWT. On the other, it refuses to join the Mekong River Commission. China has dammed the Mekong extensively, severely reducing water flows to Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand. This has led to reduced sediment loads, declining fish stocks, and increased vulnerability to droughts. The same pattern holds with the Brahmaputra. China has not consistently shared hydrological data on the river, despite earlier agreements to do so during flood seasons. Meanwhile, it is constructing a massive dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo, the upper stream of the Brahmaputra, which would be among the largest in the world. This project predates India's decision to hold the IWT in abeyance and has continued despite concerns raised by New Delhi and environmentalists around the globe. China's lack of transparency and disregard for downstream consequences reflects a broader approach: development first, accountability later. It prioritises hydropower generation and water security for itself, often at the expense of ecological balance and the rights of neighbouring countries. In fact, the impact of China's actions on the Tibetan Plateau is already being felt. Observers have noted increasingly erratic flows in rivers like the Sutlej and Indus over the past few years—likely a consequence of upstream Chinese infrastructure and water diversion. The notion that China is now 'threatening' India over water flows misses the point: it has already been reducing flows and consolidating control for years. A deeper analysis reveals the real motive behind this sabre-rattling. China is not warning India over a future hypothetical action—it is using the possibility of India reviewing the IWT as justification for what it has already been doing. This is not about enforcing a rules-based water order; it is about cloaking unilateralism in the garb of strategic retaliation. India must read the situation for what it is: geopolitical signalling, not a genuine threat of leverage. China's actions fit a broader pattern of asserting upstream control while denying the same right to others. In that sense, its current posturing is less about water and more about reinforcing alliances and projecting regional dominance. The IWT has held for decades, despite wars and hostilities. Any move India makes on the treaty should be based on its own interest, sustainability, and regional stability—not on pre-emptive threats made by a hypocritical neighbour. The author is an adjunct scholar at the Takshashila Institution. He tweets @YusufDFI. Views are personal. (Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)
Express Tribune
4 days ago
- Politics
- Express Tribune
'Don't do unto others what you don't want done to you': Victor Gao warns India
Listen to article Vice President of the Center for China and Globalization Victor Gao said the Indus Waters Treaty must be respected in letter and spirit, and warned against using water as a tool of coercion. 'Never use the Indus River as blackmail against the people of Pakistan,' he remarked. 'Do not do unto others what you do not want others to do unto you.' In an interview with an Indian news channel, he called for regional cooperation on water sharing and criticised any unilateral moves to divert shared water resources. He reaffirmed China's commitment to its 'iron-clad friendship' with Pakistan, stressing that Beijing will not tolerate any attempts to undermine Pakistan's legitimate interests, particularly with regard to the peaceful use of Indus River waters under the long-standing treaty with India. 'China and India need to come up with a protocol so that the waters of the Brahmaputra can be better managed,' he said, referring to recent concerns over India's river management policies. 'This becomes more important in light of Indian government's attempt to divert water from rivers to Pakistan.' He underscored the geographical reality that most major rivers in South Asia originate in Tibet, placing China in a strategic position in terms of regional water diplomacy. 'China is in the upper stream, India in the midstream. It is not appropriate for India to interfere unilaterally with shared waters,' he said. Gao expressed hope that China, India, and Pakistan would be able to engage in dialogue on equitable water sharing in both the western (Indus) and eastern (Brahmaputra) river systems. 'Only through mutual understanding and cooperation can the region ensure the sustainable and peaceful use of these vital resources,' he concluded. Read more: Victor Gao shuts down Indian General Bakshi over anti-Pakistan terrorism taunt The statement should be seen in the backdrop of India's recent decision to "hold in abeyance" the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a 1960 World Bank-mediated agreement governing the distribution of the Indus river system's resources. Under the treaty, Pakistan holds rights to the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers, while India controls the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers. Islamabad has warned that any attempt by India to divert or obstruct Pakistan's share of water would be treated as "an act of war," with a commitment to employ all elements of national power in response.
The Print
21-05-2025
- Politics
- The Print
China is playing saviour for Pakistan. This time, with water diplomacy
Chinese commentary repeatedly casts India as a hegemonic upstream actor leveraging its geographic position, while China is painted as a saviour, stabilising force, and Pakistan's indispensable partner in achieving water security. One Weibo post declares: 'India is a 'shameless' country with double-standards; on one hand, it fears China using its upstream position, but on the other, uses the same to pressure Pakistan.' Last week, Chinese media announced that the Chinese-funded Mohmand Hydropower Project in Pakistan had entered its filling phase, a development heavily publicised and framed as a pointed signal to India. Coverage and posts across platforms like Baidu, Weibo, and WeChat present China's expanding role in Pakistan's water infrastructure not as routine cooperation but as a calculated counter to Indian influence . Headlines proclaim , 'China is helping Pakistan crack India's water strategy,' positioning Beijing as a hydropower ally in Pakistan's rivalry with India. As overt military tensions between India and Pakistan subside, Chinese digital discourse is increasingly casting water as a frontline of strategic competition in the region. Some commentary goes further, invoking national security rhetoric. A Baidu post warns, India's strike on the Chinese-built Neelum–Jhelum dam opens a new front, one that could internationalise the region's water tensions. India said Pakistan's claims of such an attack are a ''blatant lie'. Victor Gao, vice president of the Center for China and Globalization, remarked that 'water sharing among China, India, and Pakistan must be governed by international and treaty obligations, adding that third-party upstream nations may intervene if downstream flows are threatened.' The tone on Chinese platforms is often combative. 'Pakistan is no longer afraid of being cut off from India!' posted one Weibo user, citing Chinese-backed dams as strategic shields. Another claimed, 'the war over water escalates! India provoked three times; Pakistan showed off its China-built dam, water crisis is history!' South Asia expert Long Xingchun commented that 'China's intervention was calibrated, supporting Pakistan without provoking open conflict with India. China stepped in this time to pinch the flame and prevent South Asia from blowing up.' Also read: India needs to focus on winning in Kashmir, not fighting Pakistan China's strategic framing Projects like the Mohmand Dam are not framed as technical endeavours but as symbols of strategic alignment. Built by China Gezhouba Group Corporation, a subsidiary of China Energy Engineering Corporation, the dam's progress is widely celebrated in Chinese media and is described as China's commitment to Pakistan's infrastructure and energy resilience. Chinese reports emphasise its expected benefits: Irrigation for 16,700 hectares, annual generation of 2.86 billion kWh, and enhanced flood control and water supply. One Chinese article posed the question: Have you ever thought a dam could be a shield for national security as well as a power source? It dubbed the Mohmand project Pakistan's 'water freedom guarantee'—a striking example of how hydropower is framed as strategic autonomy. Chinese discourse around the Mohmand and Diamer–Bhasha dams frequently invoke Balochistan, implying that unrest there is part of a broader strategy to disrupt Chinese investments and derail the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Some posts even claim that India is fuelling separatist sentiment in the region to weaken these infrastructure ventures. However, a Chinese commentator argues, 'while Pakistan's reliance on the Indus River remains precarious, the situation is gradually improving thanks to its close ties with China. With strong Chinese backing, major water projects like the Diamer Bhasha Dam—often dubbed Pakistan's 'Three Gorges Project'—and the planned Kalabagh Dam are making steady progress.' Criticism of India is a constant. A post from the South Asian Studies ewsletter, run by young scholars and commentators, asserts: 'India's 'water weapon' strategy is a double-edged sword—one that may exacerbate regional tensions and ultimately harm India's own interests. This notion of 'hydro-hegemony' has become central to how Chinese platforms frame India's water diplomacy.' Also read: The next wars will be silent—fought with semiconductors, software, invisible lines of code China showcases hydro diplomacy Ultimately, China is using hydropower to assert soft and hard power in tandem. On social media and in state-run commentary, water infrastructure is depicted not merely as development assistance but as a tool of regional rebalancing. As one Weibo user asked, 'Can China rewrite the pattern of water distribution in South Asia?' Chinese discourse strongly suggests it can—and that it is already doing so. These narratives portray China not only as Pakistan's all-weather partner but also as a regional power reshaping the region's hydro politics. For Beijing, water diplomacy serves both to bolster Pakistan's defences against Indian influence and to safeguard its investments and interests in the CPEC. For India, the prospect of a two-front challenge has rarely felt more concrete. Sana Hashmi is fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation. She tweets @sanahashmi1. Views are personal. (Edited by Theres Sudeep)
Express Tribune
10-05-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
Chinese analyst Victor Gao says China stands firmly with Pakistan
Listen to article A senior Chinese analyst Victor Gao has reaffirmed China's strong commitment to Pakistan amid escalating tensions between Islamabad and New Delhi, saying that Beijing would not waver in defending Pakistan's sovereignty and core interests. Victor Gao, Vice President of the Centre for China and Globalisation and a prominent foreign policy voice in Beijing, made the remarks during an interview with Chinese state broadcaster CGTN. 'China and Pakistan have ironclad relations — we truly stand by each other,' Victor Gao said, describing the bilateral partnership as one of deep strategic trust. In a clear signal of China's position, Victor Gao stated: 'If escalation threatens Pakistan's legitimate interests, sovereignty, or territorial integrity, that is a serious matter.' He added 'I do not believe any country should doubt China's commitment to protecting Pakistan's legitimate interests.' The remarks come as tensions rise sharply between Pakistan and India, following missile exchanges and military operations along the border. Pakistan initiated retaliatory action in response to the ongoing Indian aggression in the wee hours of Saturday. The operation has been officially named Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos. As part of the operation, all bases identified as launch points for attacks on Pakistani civilians and mosques are being specifically targeted. Multiple strategic targets are being engaged simultaneously as the operation progresses, security sources confirmed. They stated that Pakistan launched its Al-Fatah missile as part of the ongoing retaliatory operation, naming it in honour of the Pakistani children who lost their lives in recent Indian aggression. They added that Pakistan has neither forgotten nor will ever forget the sacrifice of these innocent children, who were martyred during cross-border attacks by Indian forces earlier this week.
Express Tribune
02-05-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
'China will help Pakistan' defend itself
Leading Chinese academic Professor Victor Gao has said China will stand with Pakistan against any aggression and is committed at all levels to provide all kinds of assistance to defend Pakistan's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Gao, the vice president of the Beijing-based think tank, the Center for China and Globalization (CCG), told the Indian media that China's clear stance amid India's brinkmanship, underscored the necessity of investigating the Pahalgam false flag operation. "Stopping any form of aggression is the need of the hour," Prof Gao remarked.
