Latest news with #VivaEnergyGroupLimited
Yahoo
06-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA)
Viva Energy Group's estimated fair value is AU$2.04 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Viva Energy Group's AU$1.75 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate Analyst price target for VEA is AU$2.47, which is 21% above our fair value estimate Does the May share price for Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example! We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you. We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free. We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (A$, Millions) AU$152.1m AU$539.3m AU$396.7m AU$322.1m AU$282.3m AU$260.2m AU$248.1m AU$242.1m AU$239.9m AU$240.4m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Est @ -18.81% Est @ -12.35% Est @ -7.82% Est @ -4.65% Est @ -2.43% Est @ -0.88% Est @ 0.20% Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 9.7% AU$139 AU$448 AU$300 AU$222 AU$178 AU$149 AU$130 AU$115 AU$104 AU$95.2 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$1.9b The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.7%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$240m× (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (9.7%– 2.7%) = AU$3.5b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$3.5b÷ ( 1 + 9.7%)10= AU$1.4b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$3.3b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$1.7, the company appears about fair value at a 14% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent. Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Viva Energy Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.610. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. See our latest analysis for Viva Energy Group Strength Debt is well covered by cash flow. Weakness Interest payments on debt are not well covered. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Oil and Gas market. Opportunity Forecast to reduce losses next year. Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows. Good value based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value. Threat Dividends are not covered by cash flow. Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Viva Energy Group, we've put together three essential items you should assess: Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for Viva Energy Group we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company. Future Earnings: How does VEA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
05-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA)
Viva Energy Group's estimated fair value is AU$2.04 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Viva Energy Group's AU$1.75 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate Analyst price target for VEA is AU$2.47, which is 21% above our fair value estimate Does the May share price for Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example! We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you. We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free. We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (A$, Millions) AU$152.1m AU$539.3m AU$396.7m AU$322.1m AU$282.3m AU$260.2m AU$248.1m AU$242.1m AU$239.9m AU$240.4m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Est @ -18.81% Est @ -12.35% Est @ -7.82% Est @ -4.65% Est @ -2.43% Est @ -0.88% Est @ 0.20% Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 9.7% AU$139 AU$448 AU$300 AU$222 AU$178 AU$149 AU$130 AU$115 AU$104 AU$95.2 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$1.9b The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.7%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$240m× (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (9.7%– 2.7%) = AU$3.5b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$3.5b÷ ( 1 + 9.7%)10= AU$1.4b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$3.3b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$1.7, the company appears about fair value at a 14% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent. Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Viva Energy Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.610. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. See our latest analysis for Viva Energy Group Strength Debt is well covered by cash flow. Weakness Interest payments on debt are not well covered. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Oil and Gas market. Opportunity Forecast to reduce losses next year. Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows. Good value based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value. Threat Dividends are not covered by cash flow. Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Viva Energy Group, we've put together three essential items you should assess: Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for Viva Energy Group we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company. Future Earnings: How does VEA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Yahoo
02-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Shareholders in Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA) have lost 52%, as stock drops 4.0% this past week
Even the best stock pickers will make plenty of bad investments. And there's no doubt that Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA) stock has had a really bad year. To wit the share price is down 54% in that time. Even if you look out three years, the returns are still disappointing, with the share price down31% in that time. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 37% in the last three months. Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS). During the last year Viva Energy Group saw its earnings per share drop below zero. Buyers no doubt think it's a temporary situation, but those with a nose for quality have low tolerance for losses. Of course, if the company can turn the situation around, investors will likely profit. You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values). We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Viva Energy Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow. As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Viva Energy Group's TSR for the last 1 year was -52%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments! Viva Energy Group shareholders are down 52% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 2.7%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 11%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Viva Energy Group better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Viva Energy Group that you should be aware of. Viva Energy Group is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying. Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
