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Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's frantic week of peace brokering hints at what he really wants
"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen." So supposedly said the Russian revolutionary leader Vladimir Ilyich Lenin. The diplomatic whirlwind that has surrounded US President Donald Trump this week suggests the old Bolshevik might have been onto something. For the protectionist president, who promises always to put America First, has in recent days instead been busy bestriding the world stage. He and his team have done business deals in the Gulf; lifted sanctions on Syria; negotiated the release of a US citizen held by Hamas; ended military strikes on Houthi fighters in Yemen; slashed American tariffs on China; ordered Ukraine to hold talks with Russia in Turkey; continued quiet negotiations with Iran over a nuclear deal; and even claimed responsibility for brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan... The pace has been breathless, leaving allies and opponents alike struggling to catch up as the US diplomatic bandwagon hurtled from issue to issue. "Just, wow!" remarked one London-based ambassador. "It is almost impossible to stay on top of everything that's going on." So what is going on? What have we learned in this frantic week about the US president's emerging foreign policy? Is there something approaching a Trump doctrine - or is this just a coincidental confluence of global events? A good place to start, perhaps, is the president's visit to the Gulf where he set out - in word and deed - his vision for a world of interstate relations based on trade, not war. In a speech in Riyadh, Trump said he wanted "commerce not chaos" in the Middle East, a region that "exports technology not terrorism". His was a prospect of a breezy, pragmatic mercantilism where nations did business deals to their mutual benefit, a world where profit can bring peace. As he enjoyed the flattery of his Saudi hosts and the obeisance of visiting dignitaries, the president signed - with his fat felt tip pen - deals that the White House claimed represented $600bn of investment in the US. This was Trump in all his pomp; applauded and rewarded with immediate wins he could sell back home as good for American jobs. Some diplomats privately questioned the value of the various memorandums of understanding. But the show, they said, was more important than the substance. Absent from Trump's speech was any mention of possible collective action by the US and other countries; no talk of multilateral cooperation against the threat of climate change, no concerns about challenges to democratic or human rights in the region. This was a discourse almost entirely without reference to ideology or values except to dismiss their significance. Rather, he used his speech to Saudi leaders to make his clearest argument yet against Western interventionism of the past, attacking what he called "the so-called nation-builders and neo-cons" for "giving you lectures on how to live or how to govern your own affairs". To the applause of his Arab audience, he said these "Western interventionists" had "wrecked more nations than they built", adding: "Far too many American presidents have been afflicted with the notion that it's our job to look into the souls of foreign leaders and use US policy to dispense justice for their sins. "I believe it's God's job to sit in judgement. My job is to defend America." That reluctance to intervene was on show in recent days when it came to the fighting between India and Pakistan. In the past, the US has often played a key role seeking to end military confrontations in the subcontinent. But the Trump White House was initially cautious about getting involved. Vice-President JD Vance told Fox News the fighting was "fundamentally none of our business… We can't control these countries". In the end, both he and Secretary of State Marco Rubio did make calls, putting pressure on both nuclear powers to de-escalate. So too did other countries. When the ceasefire was agreed, Trump claimed US diplomacy had brokered the deal. But that was flatly dismissed by Indian diplomats who insisted it was a bilateral truce. The centrality of Trump to US foreign policy has also become apparent this week. This is more than just a simple truism. On show was the lack of involvement of other parts of the US government that traditionally help shape US decision-making overseas. Take the president's extraordinary decision to meet Syria's new president and former jihadist, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and lift sanctions on Syria. This showed the potential advantage of having foreign policy in one man's hands: it was a decisive and bold step. And it was clearly the president's personal decision, after heavy lobbying by both Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It was seen by some diplomats as the quid pro quo for the diplomatic fawning and investment deals Trump received in Riyadh. Not only did the decision surprise many in the region but it also surprised many in the American government. Diplomats said the State Department was reluctant to lift sanctions, wanting to keep some leverage over the new Syrian government, fearful it was not doing enough to protect minorities and tackle foreign fighters. Diplomats say this pattern of impulsive decision-making without wider internal government discussion is common in the White House. The result, they say, is not always positive. This is due, in part, to Trump's lack of consistency (or put simply, changing his mind). Take the decision this week to do a deal with China to cut tariffs on trade with the US. A few weeks ago Trump imposed 145% tariffs on Beijing, with blood thirsty warnings against retaliation. The Chinese retaliated, the markets plunged, American businesses warned of dire consequences. So in Geneva, US officials climbed down and most tariffs against China were cut to 30%, supposedly in return for some increased US access to Chinese markets. This followed a now-familiar pattern: issue maximalist demands, threaten worse, negotiate, climb down and declare victory. The problem is that this "art of a deal" strategy might work on easily reversible decisions such as tariffs. It is harder to apply to longer term diplomatic conundrums such as war. Take Russia's invasion of Ukraine. On this, Trump's policy has been fluid, to put it mildly. And this week was a case in point. Last Saturday the leaders of the UK, France, Poland and Germany visited Kyiv to put on a show of support for Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky. And in a group call with Trump on French President Emmanuel Macron's phone, they spelled out their strategy of demanding Russia agree an immediate 30-day ceasefire or face tougher sanctions. This was Trump's policy too. The day before he wrote on social media: "If the ceasefire is not respected, the US and its partners will impose further sanctions." But then on Sunday, President Vladimir Putin suggested instead there should be direct talks between Ukraine and Russia in Turkey on Thursday. Trump immediately went along with this, backtracking on the strategy he had agreed with European leaders a day earlier. "Ukraine should agree to (these talks) immediately," he wrote on social media. "I am starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin." Then on Thursday, Trump changed his position again, saying a deal could be done only if he and Putin were to meet in person. This puzzles some diplomats. "Does he genuinely not know what he wants to do about the war in Ukraine?" one remarked to me. "Or does he just grasp at what might offer the quickest resolution possible?" Into this puzzling mix fell two other decisions this week. First, Trump agreed a ceasefire after a campaign bombing Houthi fighters in Yemen for almost two months. There have been questions about the effectiveness of the hugely expensive air strikes, and the president's appetite for a long military operation. He repeatedly told his Arab hosts how much he disliked war. Second, Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, held his fourth round of talks with Iran over efforts to curb their nuclear ambitions. Both sides are hinting that a deal is possible, although sceptics fear it could be quite modest. Talk of joint US-Israeli military action against Iran seems to have dissipated. What unites both issues is that the United States was acting directly against the wishes of Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu may have been the first world leader invited to the Oval Office after Trump's inauguration, but in recent days, he seems to have been snubbed. Trump toured the Middle East without visiting Israel; he lifted sanctions on Syria without Israel's support. His Houthi ceasefire came only days after the group attacked Tel Aviv airport. Diplomats fear Netanyahu's reaction. Could the spurned prime minister respond with a more aggressive military operation in Gaza? So after this week of diplomatic hurly burly, how much has changed? Perhaps less than might appear. For all the glitz of Trump's tour through the Middle East, the fighting and humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues unresolved. A fresh Israeli offensive seems imminent. One of Trump's chief aims – the normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia - remains distant. For all the talks about ending the war in Ukraine, there is no greater likelihood of the guns falling silent. Putin's ambitions seem unchanged. And for all the deals to cut US tariffs, either with the UK or China, there is still huge global market instability. We do have a clearer idea of Trump's global ideology, one that is not isolationist but mercantilist, hoping optimistically that capitalism can overcome conflict. We also have a clearer idea of his haste, his desire to clear his diplomatic decks – in the Middle East, Ukraine and the subcontinent – so he can focus on his primary concern, namely China. But that may prove an elusive ambition. If there are weeks when decades happen, there are also weeks when nothing happens. Joe Biden on Trump: 'What president ever talks like that? That's not who we are' Americans used to be steadfast in their support for Israel. Those days are gone Xi's real test is not Trump's trade war Top picture credit: Getty Images BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. And we showcase thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. You can send us your feedback on the InDepth section by clicking on the button below.
Yahoo
22-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Reasserts Itself as Stocks, Bonds Fall, Gold Hits Record High
By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen." Vladimir Ilyich Lenin Few quotes better capture the current turbulence in global markets. For decades, the classic portfolio of 60% equities and 40% bonds was considered the cornerstone of balanced investing. This allocation typically offered protection in downturns through bonds, while equities drove returns in times of economic growth. We saw this play out during crises like 2008 and 2020, when iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) surged amid global uncertainty. Today, that dynamic has been upended. With persistent geopolitical tension ignited by President Donald Trump's tariffs, stubborn inflation and slowing growth, Treasury yields have climbed and bond prices fallen. TLT is now down some 50% from its 2020 highs. The equity side of the portfolio isn't faring much better. U.S. stocks are underperforming, caught in what some are calling a broader "Sell America" trade. Even the dollar, which typically strengthens in risk-off environments, is weakening as capital flows shift toward the yen and euro. In this new regime, alternative assets are taking center stage. Gold has surged to $3,500 an ounce for the first time, cementing its role as a haven. To underscore its meteoric rise: the precious metal has added about $6 trillion in market cap this year, triple the market cap of bitcoin (BTC) at its all-time high. Gold ETF inflows, measured over a 90-day rolling period, are approaching 9 million ounces, the biggest surge since 2022 and among the largest in the past decade. Bitcoin, while lagging behind gold, is also reasserting itself. It has reached new highs in dominance within the crypto market and is beginning to diverge from U.S. tech stocks. It's increasingly behaving like an uncorrelated asset, valuable in a diversified portfolio. This Friday, $6.7 billion in bitcoin options are set to expire, including $330 million in call options at the $100,000 strike price, setting the stage for a potentially volatile final week of April. Stay alert! Crypto: April 22: The Lyora upgrade goes live on the Injective (INJ) mainnet. April 25, 1 p.m.: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Crypto Task Force Roundtable on "Key Considerations for Crypto Custody". April 28: Enjin Relaychain increases active validator slots to 25 from 15, to enhance decentralization. April 29, 1:05 a.m.: BNB Chain (BNB) — BSC mainnet hardfork. April 30, 9:30 a.m.: ProShares expects its XRP ETF, offering exposure through futures and swap agreements, to begin trading on NYSE Arca. April 30, 10:03 a.m.: Gnosis Chain (GNO), an Ethereum sister chain, will activate the Pectra hard fork on its mainnet at slot 21,405,696, epoch 1,337,856. Macro Day 2 of 6: World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring meetings in Washington. April 22, 8:30 p.m.: Statistics Canada releases March producer price inflation data. PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4% PPI YoY Prev. 4.9% April 22, 6 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will deliver a speech titled "Transmission of Monetary Policy." April 23, 8 a.m.: Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases retail sales data. Retail Sales MoM Prev. 0.6% Retail Sales YoY Prev. 2.7% April 23, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (flash) U.S. April purchasing managers' index (PMI) data. Composite PMI Prev. 53.5 Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.4 vs. Prev. 50.2 Services PMI Est. 52.8 vs. Prev. 54.4 Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) April 22: Tesla (TSLA), post-market April 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market May 1: Block (XYZ), post-market Governance votes & calls Aave DAO is discussing partnering with to create a custom Aave market on EVM layer 2 to 'facilitate on-chain credit for everyday payments through the Cash credit card program.' April 23, 9 p.m.: Manta Network to host a townhall meeting with its founders. April 24, 8 a.m.: Alchemy Pay to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session on its 2025 roadmap. April 30, 12 p.m.: Helium to host a community call meeting. Unlocks April 30: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $21.83 million. May 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.28% of its circulating supply worth $170.93 million. May 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.67% of its circulating supply worth $10.46 million. May 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.73% of its circulating supply worth $11.92 million. May 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.56% of its circulating supply worth $13 million. May 9: Movement (MOVA) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $11.23 million. Token Launches April 22: Hyperlane to airdrop its HYPER tokens. April 22: BNB to be listed on Kraken. April 23: Zora to airdrop its ZORA tokens. April 24: Initia (INIT) to be listed on Binance, CoinW, WEEX, KuCoin, MEXC, and others. CoinDesk's Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes. Day 1 of 3: Money20/20 Asia (Bangkok) April 23: Crypto Horizons 2025 (Dubai) April 23-24: Blockchain Forum 2025 (Moscow) April 24: Bitwise's Investor Day for Bitcoin Standard Corporations (New York) April 26: Crypto Vision Conference 2025 (Manilla) April 26-27: Harvard Blockchain in Action Conference (Cambridge, Mass.) April 27: N Crypto Conference 2025 (Kyiv) April 27-30: Web Summit Rio 2025 April 28-29: Blockchain Disrupt 2025 (Dubai) April 28-29: Staking Summit Dubai April 29: El Salvador Digital Assets Summit 2025 (San Salvador) April 29: IFGS 2025 (London) By Shaurya Malwa Pope Francis' death on Easter Monday triggered significant activity in crypto markets and prediction platforms as traders aimed to capitalize on the news. LUCE, a Solana-based memecoin tied to the Vatican's Holy Year 2025 mascot, surged 45% in value, reaching $0.013, according to CoinGecko data. Daily trading volume in the token skyrocketed to $60.27 million from $5 million the previous day, despite the price being down 95% from its November peak of 30 cents. Although unaffiliated with the Vatican, LUCE has attracted around 44,800 holders. Meanwhile, a Polymarket bet on who will be the next pope has attracted over $3.5 million in volumes since going live on Dec. 31, with over 18 candidates in the mix. As of Tuesday morning, Pietro Parolin leads odds at 37%, followed by Luis Antonio Tagle at 23% and Matteo Zuppi at 11%. HBAR, XLM and TRX have seen the most growth in perpetual futures open interest among major tokens in the past 24 hours. However, only TRX has seen a positive cumulative volume delta, implying an influx of new money predominantly on the bullish side. BTC's open interest in has increased to 695K BTC, the most since March 25. ETH's open interest held shy of the recent record above 11.9 million ETH. Perpetual funding rates for most major tokens remain marginally positive in a sign of cautiously bullish sentiment. On Deribit, BTC's short and near-dated calls are now trading at par or a slight premium to puts, another sign of renewed bullishness. ETH puts, however, continue to trade at a premium to calls. Block options flows have been muted on Paradigm, with calendar spreads and April put spreads lifted in BTC and ETH. BTC is up 1.45% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $88,539.04 (24hrs: +1.16%) ETH is up 3.43% at $1,628.60 (24hrs: -0.84%) CoinDesk 20 is up 1.49% at 2,544.64 (24hrs: -0.3%) Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 2.98% BTC funding rate is at -0.0058% (-2.1353% annualized) on Binance DXY is up 0.1% at 98.38 Gold is up 4.28% at $3,456.97/oz Silver is up 0.5% at $32.57/oz Nikkei 225 closed -0.17% at 34,220.60 Hang Seng closed +0.78% at 21,562.32 FTSE is up 0.49% at 8,315.81 Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.28% at 4,922.48 DJIA closed on Monday -2.48% at 38,170.41 S&P 500 closed -2.36% at 5,158.20 Nasdaq closed -2.55% at 15,870.90 S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.76% at 24,008.86 S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 2,384.47 U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.42% E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.98% at 5,235.75 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.02% at 18,105.00 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.87% at 38,660.00 BTC Dominance: 64.39% (-0.09%) Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01839 (1.88%) Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 840 EH/s Hashprice (spot): $45.0 PH/s Total Fees: 6.56BTC / $572,645 CME Futures Open Interest: 139,765 BTC BTC priced in gold: 25.5 oz BTC vs gold market cap: 7.22% If you feel gold's rally is overstretched or overdone, think again. The ratio between gold's spot price and its 200-day simple moving average, currently 1.3, is well below highs seen in 2011-2012 when the yellow metal rose to its then-record price of $2,000. The ratio went as high as 5.80 in the 1980. Bitcoin tends to follow gold with a lag of couple of months. Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $317.76 +0.18%), up 2.02% at $324.19 in pre-market Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $175 (-0.02%), up 1% at $176.75 Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$15.38 (+0.13%) MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.29 (-2.92%), up 2.36% at $12.59 Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $6.29 (-2.63%), up 2.07% at $6.42 Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $6.39 (-3.62%) CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.47 (-0.53%), up 2.68% at $7.67 CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $11.74 (-2.49%) Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $29.83 (-8.17%) Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $36.59 (+0.03%), unchanged in pre-market Spot BTC ETFs: Daily net flow: $381.3 million Cumulative net flows: $35.86 billion Total BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million Spot ETH ETFs Daily net flow: -$25.4 million Cumulative net flows: $2.24 billion Total ETH holdings ~ 3.30 million Source: Farside Investors The chart shows the price of eggs in the U.S. has increased by over 200% since 2024, outperforming BTC's 100% surge. Gold and the S&P 500 have gained 46% and 21%, respectively, over the same period. In other words, asset price growth has failed to compensate holders for the inflation on Main Street. Bitcoin, Euro Options Signal Bullishness Against Dollar Amid Equity and Bond Market Downturns (CoinDesk): Preference for BTC and euro call options over dollar exposure suggests investors are rotating out of U.S. assets and into bitcoin, the euro and gold. Dow Headed for Worst April Since 1932 as Investors Send 'No Confidence' Signal (The Wall Street Journal): Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, said the Trump administration's policies have made the U.S. economy increasingly unstable and difficult to gauge, deterring investment. Bitcoin Runs Into Resistance Cluster Above $88K. What Next? (CoinDesk): Behavioral aspects of trading could influence whether bitcoin rallies further or faces a new downturn from the resistance zone. Bearish Dollar Bets Move Toward Levels That Raise Risk of Recoil (Bloomberg): Despite widespread bets against the dollar, steady demand for Treasuries and technical signals suggest a rebound is likely, though gains may be limited or short-lived if negative news continues. Japanese Investors Sold $20B of Foreign Debt as Trump Tariffs Shook Markets (Financial Times): Much of Japan's selling likely involves U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by the U.S. government, said Tomoaki Shishido, senior rates strategist at Nomura. Bitcoin, Stablecoins Command Over 70% of Crypto Market as BTC Pushes Higher (CoinDesk): Bitcoin dominance rose to 64.6%, the highest since January 2021, as ether slumped and the ETH-to-BTC ratio fell to a five-year low of 0.01765.
