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Mint
06-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
India to overtake Japan in 2025, become fourth-largest economy, projects IMF
India is set to overtake Japan and become the fourth-largest economy in the world in 2025, reported the news agency Times of India, citing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. As per the news report, India's nominal GDP is expected to rise to $4,287.017 billion in the financial year 2025-26, higher than the $4,186.431 billion expectation of Japan's nominal GDP. In the World Economic Outlook report, India is expected to grow at a more 'stable' rate in the year 2025, fueled by private consumption. However, the report also highlighted that this growth rate is 0.3 per cent lower than the previous estimates released in Janaury 2025. 'For India, the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2 per cent in 2025, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas, but this rate is 0.3 percentage point lower than that in the January 2025 WEO Update on account of higher levels of trade tensions and global uncertainty,' according to the IMF World Economic Outlook report. As per the news portal's report, the United States is expected to lead with $30,507.217 billion in nominal GDP in 2025, followed by China with $19,231.705 billion, then Germany with $4,7,44.804 billion. The United States and China will continue to remain the top two economies in the world. Comparing India and Japan on the ageing population equation, India is equipped with a younger generation and has emerged as the most populous nation in the world. On the other hand, Japan is expected to witness a slower pace of workforce contribution due to the population ageing issue. 'The contribution is particularly large for India, for instance, as its share of workers ages 50 and older is projected to grow fast in that period, whereas it is relatively lower in Japan, as its share of older workers, though high, will grow at a slower pace over 2025–50,' according to the IMF report, released in late April. However, the report also highlighted that the contribution to the growth from healthy ageing will gradually fade as workers transition through their late adult stage and into the retired category. 'Under current policies, the contribution to growth from healthy ageing would gradually fade as current cohorts of workers transition through their late adult stage and into retirement,' according to the WEO report. First Published: 6 May 2025, 05:10 PM IST
Time of India
05-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Big achievement! India to become 4th largest economy in 2025 overtaking Japan; will be 3rd largest by 2028
In the coming years, India is also likely to overtake Germany to become the third largest economy. (AI image) India will become the fourth largest economy in the world in 2025, surpassing Japan, according to the latest World Economic Outlook April 2025 edition of the International Monetary Fund. India's nominal GDP for 2025 (FY26) is expected to be $4,187.017 billion, marginally more than the likely GDP of Japan which is estimated at $4,186.431 billion. Till 2024, India was the 5th largest economy in the world, but in the ongoing year it is expected to become the fourth largest, as per the latest IMF predictions. In the coming years, India is also likely to overtake Germany to become the third largest economy. By 2028, India's GDP is estimated to be $5,584.476 billion, more than Germany's $5,251.928 billion. India will become a $5 trillion economy in 2027, with a GDP of $5,069.47 billion. Top 10 Largest Economies In the World 2025 Country Nominal GDP (US Dollar Billion Terms) United States 30507.217 China 19231.705 Germany 4744.804 India 4187.017 Japan 4186.431 United Kingdom 3839.18 France 3211.292 Italy 2422.855 Canada 2225.341 Brazil 2125.958 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2025 The United States of America and China will continue to the world's top two largest economies in 2025 as well. They are expected to retain these rankings through the decade, as peer IMF estimates. In its latest World Economic Outlook, IMF has warned that the global economic system under which most countries have operated for the last 80 years is being reset, ushering the world into a new era. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Google Brain Co-Founder Andrew Ng, Recommends: Read These 5 Books And Turn Your Life Around Blinkist: Andrew Ng's Reading List Undo IMF has adjusted India's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 6.2% in its report. This marks a reduction from the earlier projection of 6.5% that was published in the January outlook report. The downward adjustment in growth projections reflects heightened uncertainties stemming from US President Donald Trump's decisions on tariffs. The IMF report states: "For India, the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2 percent in 2025, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas, but this rate is 0.3 percentage point lower than that in the January 2025 WEO Update on account of higher levels of trade tensions and global uncertainty. " Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Barnama
23-04-2025
- Business
- Barnama
IMF Slashes Global Growth Outlook On Impact Of Heightened Tariffs
Photo taken on April 19, 2022 shows the IMF Headquarters in Washington, D.C., the United States. (Photo by Ting Shen/Xinhua) BEIJING, April 23 (Bernama-Xinhua) -- In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF downgraded its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8 per cent, a hefty 0.5 percentage points decrease from its January estimate, reported Xinhua. "Since the release of the January WEO Update, a series of new tariff measures by the United States and countermeasures by trading partners have been announced and implemented," the report said, calling the US reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 "near-universal" and "not seen in a century." "This on its own is a major negative shock to growth," the IMF said in the executive summary of its April 2025 WEO. bootstrap slideshow Under the reference forecast that incorporates information as of April 4, global growth is projected to drop to 2.8 per cent in 2025 and 3 per cent in 2026 -- down from 3.3 per cent for both years in January's WEO Update and well below the historical (2000-2019) average of 3.7 per cent, according to the latest WEO. Growth in the United States is expected to slow to 1.8 per cent, 0.9 percentage points lower relative to the projection in January's forecast due to "greater policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and softer demand momentum," the report said. Euro area growth is predicted at 0.8 per cent in 2025, 0.2 percentage points lower than the January forecast. Growth in advanced economies is estimated to be 1.4 per cent in 2025, while in emerging markets and developing economies, growth is expected to slow down to 3.7 per cent. The forecasts are largely in line with economists' expectations. JPMorgan now estimates a 60 per cent probability of a US recession. The Federal Reserve has also predicted that growth will weaken this year to 1.7 per cent. Noting that rising trade barriers have an immediate impact on growth, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Thursday warned that uncertainty is "costly" amid recent tariff increases.
Business Recorder
23-04-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
IMF lowers Pakistan's FY25 GDP growth forecast to 2.6%
ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward GDP growth rate projection by 0.4 percent for Pakistan to 2.6 percent for fiscal year 2025 against earlier projection of 3 percent (January 2025). The Fund in its latest report, 'World Economic Outlook (WEO) a critical juncture amid policy shifts', projected GDP growth for Pakistan at 2.6 percent for 2025 and 3.6 percent for 2026. The IMF in January 2025 WEO had projected GDP growth rate for Pakistan at 3 per cent for fiscal year 2025 and 4 percent for 2026. Pakistan's GDP grows 0.92% in July-Sept, 2.5% in FY24 The Fund has revised downward the inflation rate projection to 5.1 percent for the current fiscal year and 7.7 percent in fiscal year 2026 against 23.4 percent in fiscal year 2024. The unemployment in the country is projected to decrease to 8 percent in 2025 against 8.3 percent in 2024, which is projected to be 7.5 percent in 2026. The current account balance is projected at negative 0.1 percent for 2025 compared to negative 0.5 percent in 2024 and projected negative 0.4 percent for 2026. The Fund projected general government net lending/ borrowing at negative 5.6 percent of GDP for 2025 compared to negative 6.8 percent of GDP for 2024. However, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has also revised Pakistan's GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 down to 2.5 percent (3 percent in December 2024), while saying that the country's outlook depends largely on the success of ongoing economic reform. The Bank also stated that the growth forecasts were finalised prior to the 2 April announcement of new tariffs by the US administration, so the baseline projections only reflect tariffs that were in place previously. The World Bank cancelled the release of its Pakistan Development Outlook earlier scheduled for April 9 to reassess projections after Trump's announcement. The Fund report noted that after enduring a prolonged and unprecedented series of shocks, the global economy appeared to have stabilised, with steady yet underwhelming growth rates. However, the landscape has changed as governments around the world reorder policy priorities and uncertainties have climbed to new highs. Forecasts for global growth have been revised markedly down compared with the January 2025 WEO Update, reflecting effective tariff rates to levels not seen in a century and a highly unpredictable environment. Global headline inflation is expected to decline at a slightly slower pace than what was expected in January. It further stated that intensifying downside risks dominate the outlook, amid escalating trade tensions and financial market adjustments. Divergent and swiftly changing policy positions or deteriorating sentiment could lead to even tighter global financial conditions. Ratcheting up a trade war and heightened trade policy uncertainty may further hinder both short-term and long-term growth prospects. Scaling back international cooperation could jeopardize progress toward a more resilient global economy. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Indian Express
23-04-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
Tariff tracker, April 23: Relief rally in the markets as Bessent says tariffs against China not sustainable
The biggest news coming out of Washington on Tuesday was the report of the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent telling investors that 'no one thinks the current status quo' of prohibitively high tariffs between China and the US 'is sustainable'. Further, as CNBC reported, Bessent reportedly assured investors that 'there will be a de-escalation' in the trade war between the two largest economies of the world in the 'very near future'. The news reports lifted investor sentiment as US stock markets shot up — temporarily at least. By the time trading stopped benchmark indices in the US had regained most of the ground they lost on Monday. The government bond yields also fell a bit and most significantly, the weakness in the US dollar also abated. Even so, in the background more tariff action continued. Bloomberg reported that the US will impose upto a whopping 3,521% tariffs on solar imports from Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia. On the other hand, South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that 'China has released an action plan to promote the use of the yuan and its own payment system in international trade, as it seeks to reduce its dependence on the dollar amid an escalating trade war with the United States.' The plan aims to leverage Shanghai's role as a global financial hub to promote the use of the Chinese currency, especially in trade involving countries in the Global South, according to the SCMP report. To be sure, these tariffs and counter-tariffs are imposing a stiff cost for the global economy. The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, which was released on Tuesday, cut the global growth forecast significantly. 'The swift escalation of trade tensions and extremely high levels of policy uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic activity. Under the reference forecast that incorporates information as of April 4, global growth is projected to drop to 2.8 percent in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026—down from 3.3 percent for both years in the January 2025 WEO Update, corresponding to a cumulative downgrade of 0.8 percentage point, and much below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.7 percent.' The IMF states that the 'first priority should be to restore trade policy stability and forge mutually beneficial arrangements'. On that front, however, there was less actual movement and more assurances. Karoline Leavitt, Donald Trump 's Press Secretary, said that 'President's trade team is working at Trump-speed' to ensure deals can be made. In particular, with reference to a trade deal with China, she said that 'the President and his administration is setting the stage for a deal with China'.
