Latest news with #WallStreeters
New York Post
4 days ago
- Business
- New York Post
How Wall Street's exuberance — despite Trump's tariffs — masks major warning signs
'Either the entire street is wrong, or the good times will continue to roll.' So said a top hedge fund manager, remarking recently to On The Money about the weird disconnect he's seeing lately in how the market is pricing in Trump's trade war. What surprised him is the latest iteration of the market zig-zagging is that after freaking out, investors appear to be pricing in the Trump tariffs as a big bowl of nothing. Advertisement 4 With Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick out of the picture, investors appear to be pricing in the Trump tariffs as a big bowl of nothing. Jack Forbes / NY Post Design The recent maybe irrational exuberance comes even as Trump keeps throwing fuel on the tariff fire. After pausing them on the world, including the most draconian levies on China, which supplies the US with cheap goods and keeps our inflation rate stable, he just blurted out that he's doubling tariffs on steel and aluminum. The market didn't tank as it did during the early days of the tariff tantrum. In fact, there's green on the screen for a policy that is supposed to slow growth and/or increase inflation, according to most economists. Advertisement So, what gives? First, economists aren't making the market bets you're seeing. Asset managers, hedge funders, traders and a bunch of so-called mom-and-pop investors continue to show an appetite to buy, and digest bad news in the most favorable light. The best I can tell is that they're making a forward-looking bet that Trump, through his trusty and highly competent Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, will negotiate all of the tariffs — even against super adversaries like China — down to something either meaningless or manageable for the economy to absorb. Advertisement 4 The recent maybe irrational exuberance comes even as President Trump keeps throwing fuel on the tariff fire. AFP via Getty Images Stocks will then trend higher on his deregulation and tax policy found in the 'Big Beautiful Bill,' the thinking goes. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's MAGA-inspired dream that tariffs on foreign goods will create a domestic manufacturing utopia will never materialize, because Lutnick is largely out of the picture. Bessent has taken the reins, and he's crafting trade deals that will lead to stable economic growth, low inflation and high-tech manufacturing jobs the Trump tax and regulatory policy will create, or so the thinking goes. So, what could go wrong? A lot, according to a few smart Wall Streeters I know as they look back at recent market history and figure out when was the last time the markets defied conventional wisdom and got things so wrong before an economic storm hit. Advertisement 4 Stocks will then trend higher on his deregulation and tax policy found in the 'Big Beautiful Bill,' the thinking goes. REUTERS One big misread came in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis. Every major CEO and most large investors (not all but most) viewed the 2007 'credit crunch,' where banks cut back lending as housing prices tanked, as simply a downturn in the economic cycle. A few Fed rate cuts, and presto, things would be back to normal. Recall how the Dow hit then historic highs in October 2007 (around 14K), just before the bottom fell out early the following year. It began with bond insurers imploding, then subprime lenders, then Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. By the end of September 2008, the meltdown hit nearly ever bank and Wall Street firm because the housing downturn was more than a downturn, it impaired the balance sheets of major financial institutions so much that most (except Jamie Dimon's 'fortress balance sheet' at JPMorgan) were on the verge of insolvency 4 Traders are betting Trump will negotiate tariffs down to something either meaningless or manageable for the economy to absorb. JOHN G MABANGLO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock After the financial collapse, and the government bailouts, came the Great Recession, which forever altered the political landscape. It ushered in a wave of left-wing (Barack Obama) and later right-wing populism (Donald Trump). There are plenty of structural differences between 2008 and today. Our banks are pretty sound, but we have more debt, a lot more. We are more dependent on foreign buyers of the debt, without whom interest rates would be much higher as debt payments continue to grow. Advertisement The trade war has pissed off some of our foreign bond buyers, namely Japan and China. Plus markets hate being surprised. If we're experiencing a bit of irrational exuberance before the reality of higher baseline tariffs kick in no matter what deals are cut, if the economy does begin to falter and inflation does pickup, if foreign buyers don't keep buying our debt and interest rates spike, the correction could be pretty brutal if history is any guide, traders tell On The Money. Until that happens, it's all blue skies ahead.
Business Insider
22-05-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
A key recruiting cycle for Wall Street is showing signs of kicking off earlier than ever
Good morning! President Donald Trump officially accepted a gifted Boeing 747-8 from Qatar. The plane has been controversial over the potential conflict of interest it poses. But what's it like inside? Look at what's set to be the new Air Force One. In today's big story, talk is swirling that private equity's recruiting cycle is ramping up, and recent grads are on edge. What's on deck Markets: A US recession could be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Tech: how he plans to transform the tech giant. Business: Things are not going great for Target. But first, may the odds be ever in your favor. If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. The big story Ready, set, PE Getty Images; Alyssa Powell/BI While most recent college graduates are getting ready for their new jobs, a select group is considering their next one. Some private-equity firms are setting up informal, introductory meetings with soon-to-be junior investment bankers before their caps even hit the ground. These so-called "coffee chats" are the precursor to interviews for jobs that won't start for another two years. The process kicking off so early has hopeful financiers on edge, BI's Emmalyse Brownstein, Reed Alexander, and Alex Nicoll write. Welcome to Wall Street's "Hunger Games." If the above sounds confusing, I don't blame you. PE's recruiting cycle doesn't make much sense. Before you start working at your first job (investment banking analyst), you're already interviewing for your second job (private-equity associate). Take a minute to read the last sentence again if you need to. Still, that's how things often work on Wall Street: always thinking two steps ahead. The summer internship that leads to the junior-banker job offer is often secured well over a year before it starts. And your best shot at getting one of those is your university's finance club, which you need to start thinking about the second you get on campus. Speaking of college, you'd better plan on getting into a target school if … well, you get the idea. The junior-banker-to-PE pipeline has been mutually beneficial. Banks don't have to worry about competing with PE firms for young talent. PE firms don't have to worry about training associates on the basics of dealmaking. But the ever-earlier timeline hasn't gone unnoticed, and at least one high-profile banker has called PE firms on it. Speaking at Georgetown University last fall, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said junior bankers taking PE jobs before starting as analysts was "unethical." "I don't like it, and I may eliminate it regardless of what the private-equity guys say," he added. To be fair, some PE headhunters tried slowing things down with an industry pact. It didn't take long for one headhunter to break it. Banks are in a similar conundrum. If they ban analysts from pursuing PE jobs too early, they risk losing out on talent. After all, plenty of aspiring Wall Streeters just view banks as a stepping stone to getting a job in PE. If they start actively preventing that, what purpose do they serve them? 3 things in markets 1. Could America be inadvertently pushing itself into a recession? Doug Ramsey, CIO of The Leuthold Group, thinks it might. In a note to clients, Ramsey pointed to a deteriorating consumer sentiment, which poses a major risk to the recession outlook. He's keeping an eye on a handful of sentiment indicators. 2. The bond market is flipping out, but Morgan Stanley isn't fazed. Though US deficit fears triggered a sell-off in the bond market, strategists at the bank warned against hopping on the "Sell America" train. "TINA — 'there is no alternative' — remains a theme for now," they wrote. 3. The stock market is flashing signals that another dip is coming — and investors should buy it, analysts at BoA say. A technical indicator suggests a near-term drop in stock prices is coming, but BoA says the market is still in a broader uptrend. 3 things in tech 1. Meta's performance reviews are about to get harder. Managers are being told to put more employees in their "below expectations" rank — the lowest performer bucket — in the coming midyear performance reviews, per an internal memo seen by BI. The move could set the stage for more performance-based layoffs, despite 4,000 low performers being cut months ago. 2. OpenAI just bagged a $6.5 billion acquisition. Sam Altman's company is buying IO, a hardware startup from former Apple exec Jony Ive — the guy who designed the iPhone. It shows the generative AI competition is now about distribution, not technology, writes BI's Alistair Barr. 3. How Microsoft is bringing its "age of AI agents" to reality. In January, CEO Satya Nadella tapped Jay Parikh, the ex-head of engineering at Facebook, to lead a new unit called CoreAI, which is crucial to Microsoft's AI ambition. Internal memos from Parikh, and viewed by BI, reveal his plan to get Microsoft focused on the macro, CoreAI's early accomplishments, and more. 3 things in business 1. Target reports tumbling sales. In an earnings call, Target said the backlash from reframing its DEI program was one of the many headwinds that had an adverse impact on sales, but the exact amount wasn't quantifiable. Some DEI supporters have claimed partial victory, but many say they're not satisfied — and more protests are coming. 2. Is Musk what Tesla needs right now? BI asked four people who have worked with him, as the CEO steps back from DOGE to focus on Tesla amid falling sales and growing competition. One said Musk was Tesla's "product manager," but questioned whether he's the right person to lead the embattled EV maker. 3. Big Law firms say they're not being bribed by Trump. Nine white-shoe firms doubled down on their deals to provide a collective $940 million in pro- bono work for the Trump administration. In letters to Congress, they flatly rejected allegations that the deals were unethical. In other news Remote workers flocked to jobs overseas. Now they're being ordered home. Walmart says it's cutting roles to 'remove layers and complexity.' What we know about Trump's secretive private dinner for top holders of his memecoin. Goldman Sachs shares 20 'rising star' stocks that a growing number of hedge funds are betting on. Tesla is now accepting Cybertruck trade-ins. Two owners showed BI how much their vehicles have depreciated. Fortnite is the No. 1 game after Apple let it back on the App Store. Epic CEO Tim Sweeney tells BI it's a 'priceless' win. Founder of AI tool for cheating in interviews predicts everyone will do it — and technical job interviews are on their way out. Disney could get a surprise win from Universal's big bet on Epic Universe. What's happening today The Business Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Amanda Yen, associate editor, in New York. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Elizabeth Casolo, fellow, in Chicago.
Times
06-05-2025
- Business
- Times
US law firms that cut deals with Donald Trump will regret it
Corporate chieftains, most notably in the tech sector, quickly bent the knee to Donald Trump on his return to the White House. Their motivation was obvious. Trump spoke openly during the election campaign about 'retribution' and, although the president's poll ratings have collapsed following a tumultuous first 100 days in office, few business leaders and Wall Streeters — honourable exceptions include Ray Dalio and Bill Ackman — have dared criticise his tariffs. The president's assault on 'Big Law', like his attacks on America's great academic institutions and a broader campaign against 'elites', helps explain why. The assault initially singled out law firms previously involved in litigation against Trump, such as those involved in election-related cases, or those who had declined to represent him. An early
New York Post
24-04-2025
- Business
- New York Post
FiDi condo tormented by ear-blasting noise from neighbor's generators
These Wall Streeters would trade anything for a good night sleep. Residents at a Financial District condo building have had their lives upended after a neighboring building installed emergency generators right beneath their windows — tormenting them with constant ear-shattering that sent some fleeing the state. For three long weeks, the three massive commercial generators have been sputtering black smoke against the now-stained facade of 101 Wall Street, whose neighboring 500-unit luxury building is utilizing the obnoxious power sources after their electricity went out in a fire. Advertisement 6 Residents say generators placed outside their windows have plagued them with excess noise, wall shaking and black smoke. Gregory P. Mango 'There's exhaust constantly flowing. My kids are sleeping in the kitchen, it's absolutely unbelievable,' Shannon Edwards, whose fourth-story condo overlooks the chaos, told The Post. 'I've been around long enough, I understand what happens in the city, but this is so egregious because there are actually noise laws. It's not supposed to run 24 hours a day — my living room is shaking. It's a nightmare.' Advertisement The generators were suddenly powered down in the middle of the night Wednesday, but not before they were filled with fresh tanks of gas, according to Edwards, who believes the quick stoppage was fueled by a Tuesday visit by The Post. Residents were initially warned April 3 that the noise and smoke would last up to six weeks as 95 Wall Street worked to turn their power back on. Inexplicably, the Sunbelt power suppliers weren't stationed outside the 23-story luxury rental building they benefited, but in front of their next-door neighbors at 101. UDR Inc, a publicly traded real estate investment trust that invests in apartments worth over a $1 billion, runs 95 Wall Street. Representatives did not respond to requests for comment. The two buildings are the only residential buildings on the block, with construction for an additional building being built across the street — raising questions among 101 residents as to why they were saddled with the unbearable noise and pollution that has even driven its local pigeon population to new homes. Advertisement 6 Shannon Edwards' daughters have been sleeping in the kitchen to avoid the ear-splitting noise. Gregory P. Mango Plus, 101 residents are worried the gas-filled generators could pose a safety issue. A Sunbelt employee babysits the tanks around the clock, but did nothing Tuesday when a group of derelicts used the generators as skateboarding ramps. Neighbors have lodged dozens of 311 complaints in the last three weeks, nearly all of which were closed because the Environmental Protection (DEP) 'didn't observe a violation of the NYC Air or Noise Code at the time of inspection and couldn't issue a summons.' Frustrated by the lack of action, Edwards purchased her own sound level meter — which registered an ear-splitting 94 decibels inside her apartment around 2 p.m. on Tuesday. Advertisement 6 The generators are just below Edwards' condo, the facade of which has been stained with black smoke. Gregory P. Mango For comparison, that noise level is just 6 decibels short of a moving train, according to the City Noise Code. City garbage trucks are prohibited from surpassing 80 decibels from at least 35 feet away. A spokesperson for the DEP told The Post that neither an exceedance of the noise code or black smoke was observed during their visits — and that inspectors registered a total reading of 77 decibels, with an ambient, or background, noise level of 74 decibels. The difference would have had to have been 10 decibels to warrant a violation. 'There was a fire at this location that caused a power outage, which is why generators are currently being used. Con Ed has informed the DEP that power is expected to be restored by tomorrow. DEP inspectors will return to the site tomorrow to conduct additional noise readings,' the spokesperson said. 6 The three generators are benefiting 95 Wall Street, which lost power during a fire. Gregory P. Mango The noise is constant, according to Edwards, and is supplemented by honking every night at 11 p.m. when a massive gasoline truck shimmies down the narrow street to refill the generator tanks. Edwards' two daughters, whose beds are up against the affected wall, have been sleeping on an air mattress in the dining room, which is as far away in the family's apartment as they can get from the noise. Advertisement 'They're not able to sleep. It's obviously a constricting amount of space to be comfortable. I'm accommodating the city, it's unacceptable,' said Edwards. 6 Scott Berger worries the noise and pollution will drive buyers away from his condo. Gregory P. Mango The family's next door neighbor is 'in pieces' and has taken to wearing headphones to bed every night — but is especially concerned with the facade of his unit that has been turned black by the plumes of smoke. Another resident escaped to Florida earlier this month after giving up hope that their complaints would get any results. Advertisement 6 101 Wall Street has been partially stained by the black fumes Gregory P. Mango Even with the generators finally being powered down on Wednesday, 101 residents remain suspicious they will be switched back on soon — they were left on the street and received a gas fill-up before they were turned off. Scott Berger, who rents his unit out to a tenant, suspects the generators were put out in front of his building because the residents, who own their units, would have to sue to get the issue resolved — a suggestion a state official made to residents upon hearing that Big Apple agencies did nothing. Residents of 95 Wall Street could withhold rent in retaliation for the noise, posing a more immediate financial concern, Berger pointed out. Advertisement 'There's noise that happens when you live in the city. This is almost incomprehensible. It's inexcusable,' Berger said.
Yahoo
16-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump may still save the West, but for now he is destroying it
Donald Trump hasn't blown it yet, but it's a close call. His tendency to hubris and self-delusion risks destroying his presidency. He has made too many mistakes, under-estimated China, been played for a fool by Vladimir Putin, embraced flat-earth economics and alienated allies. His second term has so far been characterised by performative chaos, market volatility, obscene levels of cultishness, and zero strategic planning when it comes to decoupling from China. He has empowered know-nothing sycophants, especially Peter Navarro on trade and Steve Witkoff on Russia and Iran. He won't meaningfully reindustrialise the Rust Belt, and many of the red-pilled Wall Streeters and Silicon Valley founders who support him fear America is about to be plunged into recession thanks to his imbecilic import taxes. His victories in the culture wars are being cancelled out by his economic and geopolitical self-sabotage, to the great chagrin of those who hoped, against all hope, that he would prove to be the West's liberator from the forces of socialism and wokery. Instead, Trump risks losing control of the narrative, taking down Right-wing parties in Australia and Canada with him, damaging the prospects of his friend Nigel Farage and providing succour to the never-Trumpers. Javier Milei, the anarcho-capitalist president of Argentina, has turned out to be a better role model. Yet while Trump can be stubborn, he is also eminently adaptable, especially when the polls turn against him. Self-interest will surely push him into signing trade deals with friendly countries, despite his nonsensical belief that America should be in surplus with every single nation. His voters hate higher prices, and he will seek to give them what they want, which is why I haven't given up hope that his second term will end up being a net positive for America and Western civilisation, especially if he finally sees sense on Ukraine. Trump has already scored some notable wins. He has dramatically reduced illegal immigration into the US. His war on woke and DEI has been extraordinarily successful, and he is now turning against universities such as Harvard. The President is deploying civil rights law to impose colour-blind policies on institutions that spent years engaging in disgraceful anti-white and anti-Asian discrimination. He is cracking down on the scourge of anti-Semitism. He is seeking to deport green card holders who support Hamas. Some mistakes are being made, but the overall direction of travel is excellent. He has ditched net zero, arguing that market forces and technology, not central planners, should determine energy policy. Elon Musk has eviscerated the useless Department of Education, and the foreign aid budget, used to fund Left-wing NGOs globally, has been gutted. Here too there have been errors, but on balance, these are historic victories for conservatives. Yet all of these triumphs are being overshadowed by a series of contradictions in Trump's thinking on economics and world affairs. He understands that America is no longer the world's hegemon, a realisation that informs his views on military intervention, but then promptly acts as if he retained supreme power over a bevvy of vassals prepared to take endless humiliation, punishment, tariffs or other betrayals. America in 2025 needs allies – not just bullied, resentful liegemen desperate to find an alternative protector – if it is to build an anti-China coalition, or promote 'friendshoring', or more generally save the West. Yes, Trump should coax European countries into spending more on defence and to ditch their absurd Left-wing declinism, but he also needs to woo and inspire the rest of the Western world by building a Reaganesque 'shining city on a hill'. He takes for granted the benefits ('exorbitant privilege') that come with the dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency, including the power to hand over worthless green paper to other countries in return for cheap loans, goods and services, but also wants to devalue the dollar, flirts with the idea of defaulting on some of the US debt and persists in undermining the global financial system that supports American profligacy. Trump, a capitalist on all else, has always been a socialist on trade, as the University of Warsaw's Andrzej Kozlowski argues, assuming governments can simply instruct their citizens and enterprises to purchase more US goods. He wants to unwind the post-1945 American empire, but proposes to annex Canada and Greenland. Trump believes in peace through strength, but his administration has yet to demonstrate much of the latter. Yes, China was hit by massive tariffs, but the President has already partly climbed down. What, exactly, has Russia conceded on Ukraine? What sort of 'negotiation' is this? Trump himself is losing patience, which is good: he needs to drastically toughen up on Putin. On Iran, Witkoff may be vying for an intolerable Obama-style deal. Perhaps the greatest paradox of all is that parts of the Maga movement are embracing a form of Right-wing wokery, with their own dark conspiracy theories, cult of victimhood, identity politics, denial of reality, moral grandstanding, hypersensitivity and purity tests. In this vein, whingeing about trade deficits deserves to be dismissed as 'critical trade theory', the Trumpian corollary of critical race theory: it postulates, nonsensically, that any shortfall with a foreign country must be caused by unfair practices, oppression or historic injustice. The 'woke Right', a term coined by James Lindsay, is almost as much of a turn-off as the original Left-wing variety. Eric Kaufmann, the University of Buckingham academic, worries about Trumpian amoralism, and fears that sensible arguments on immigration or gender are being lost through over-reach or the abuse of due process. 'Owning the libs', 'might makes right' and displays of proto-Nietzschean or Greco-Roman ruthlessness fires up the Maga base, but may make floating voters uneasy. Yet it is economics, not ethics, that will ultimately determine whether Trump succeeds or fails. He was elected to make America richer; his protectionist escapades are making it poorer. For the sake of the West he was meant to rescue from terminal decline, it's time for an urgent course correction. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
