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The South African
5 days ago
- Business
- The South African
Warren Hammond's Personal View: A violent summer - The World on edge
Acts of Violence – The World Is on Edge This Summer. Image: LinkedIn/warren-hammond Home » Warren Hammond's Personal View: A violent summer – The World on edge Acts of Violence – The World Is on Edge This Summer. Image: LinkedIn/warren-hammond June and July 2025 will shape up to be two of the most geopolitically intense, heated, and combustible months in recent geopolitical memory, with acts of terror and war escalating. From Washington to Warsaw, Gaza to Islamabad, Khartoum to Kyiv, the geopolitical temperature is rising. Tensions are no longer simmering. They're flashing. The last time I viewed the world in this way was 4th February 2020, whereby I prepared (on the short side) for a seismic geopolitical event to disrupt markets, at which point I communicated a selective short basket of airline, shipping, logistics, cruise line, hotel, and theme park-oriented stocks. This short basket was held until 6th April 2020, at which time, turning bullish, it was covered, and I built a net long in the S&P500, placing a 5+ year target of 8,500 on the index, a call rooted in structurally bullish high conviction during extreme volatility. At the time, all was communicated via The Personal View. Over the past decade, The Personal View has predicted major inflexion points in global stability, including: – The storming of Capitol Hill on 6 January 2021 – The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 Both events were forecast in magnitude and timing. The signals were there. They are here again. What's unfolding now is a sharp escalation in the risk of terrorism, military confrontation, sabotage, and politically driven violence. This is not a call on a single event, but a recognition of a rising tide of instability spanning regions. Hotspots to watch: – Ukraine & Eastern Europe: Russian aggression continues; NATO mobilisation intensifies.– Middle East: Iran-Israel tension, asymmetric threats, and proxy volatility.– India & Pakistan: Fragile calm masking deep structural risk.– Sudan, Congo, Ethiopia, Myanmar: Fragile states with regional contagion potential. – Western cities: Heightened alert around lone-wolf and coordinated attacks. This is not about fear. It's about foresight. The Netherlands is hosting a critical NATO summit amid this intensification. The symbolism is clear: the West is no longer reacting, it is preparing. Alliances are being tested. Defence strategies are shifting. And yet, global markets remain largely focused on rate cuts and inflation, underpricing the true driver of risk this summer: global instability. This may not be a season defined by a single headline. It may be defined by a drumbeat of escalating events, destabilising, violent, and politically consequential. For investors, executives, and policymakers: Now is the time to recalibrate portfolios, assumptions, and geopolitical expectations. June and July 2025 are a season of aggression. The world is on edge. And in a moment like this, ignoring the tension is the most dangerous strategy of all. What are your thoughts on the unfolding geopolitical risks? We invite you to share your perspectives, analysis, or questions in the comments below. Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1 Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
The South African
22-04-2025
- Business
- The South African
Warren Hammond's Personal View: The Thucydides trap, war cometh
In early March 2025, before volatility accelerated and turmoil engulfed the investing world, Warren Hammond's issued a warning in The Personal View: Positioning for the Market Turmoil Ahead, 2025–2028, saying, 'Iran's escalating conflicts in mid-April 2025 highlight global energy security risks. Oil supply disruptions could spike prices.' It's now mid-April. This moment echoes a theme he has long discussed. In 2021, he had published Investment Themes for the Next Decade . One institutional investor, Boston-based, long-only, recently revisited that note, reaching out to discuss one idea now rising with urgency: systemic confrontation. A minor transgression, regional or symbolic, can spiral into global conflict. Asia and the West drawn in. This is the Thucydidean Trap: when a rising power threatens to displace a dominant one. Harvard's Graham Allison revived this idea in 2015 and expanded it in his 2017 book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides' Trap? Warren Hammond's Personal View: Megatrends & The future of capital Today's war isn't always kinetic. The tech and tariff wars are structural conflicts, global powers contesting the boundaries of a new world order. The status quo is being washed away (forecast in 2016: The USA – The next 18 years ). In its place, a fiery, disruptive, and transformational era led increasingly by China and Asia. Taiwan is the obvious flashpoint in a hotter war scenario. Since 2016, Warren Hammond wrote about its strategic and symbolic weight in China's national psyche. But escalation could just as likely come from the Middle East or Ukraine. More important than the geography is the underlying structural stress between a rising China and an incumbent US. This is no longer about bilateral competition, it's about global reordering. Lessons from History Since January 2016, he has consistently highlighted that history has given us clues. In the context of the Thucydidean Trap, Allison studied 16 cases where rising powers confronted established ones. In 12 of them, war followed. Only 4 resolved peacefully. Key examples include: • Sparta vs. Athens (5th c. BCE)• Germany vs. Britain (early 20th c.)• France vs. Habsburg Spain (16th c.)• Japan vs. U.S. (early 20th c.)• Napoleonic France vs. Britain (early 19th c.)• US vs. British Empire (late 19th c.) – a peaceful transition • Germany vs. Russia (late 19th–early 20th c.)
