5 days ago
Warrnambool council abandons peer-reviewed flood study citing 'supposed science'
A south-west Victorian council has abandoned an independent and peer-reviewed flood study after councillors decided they did not trust the data.
The South Warrnambool and Dennington Flood Investigation found high flood risks in the area and recommended changes to council planning schemes.
But at a Warrnambool City Council meeting on Monday night, councillors voted that down, with some claiming they could not believe the "supposed science".
Although the study will go no further, the data is already being used by state government agencies, insurance companies, and the council as the most up-to-date flood information.
Emergency Management Victoria declined the ABC's request for comment.
The southern Warrnambool flood study was a three-year endeavour commissioned and funded by the Victorian government to ensure climate modelling matched the latest rainfall and sea level rise estimates.
The investigation was designed to update 2007 data and reassess the impacts of climate change and flooding through to 2100, including the likelihood of a one-in-one-hundred-year flood event.
Warrnambool City Council was in charge of managing the study — putting it out to tender, conducting community consultations, and dealing with submissions.
Councillors were then required to vote on whether to refer the flood investigation to the state government's planning panel for changes to planning schemes.
On Monday night, they voted against doing so.
Venant Solutions was the specialist consultancy company responsible for the peer-reviewed report.
Principal environmental engineer and lead investigator Michael South said the team used national and localised rainfall inputs, and streamflow and water level data to assess flood risk to the area.
Mr South told the ABC the findings were on the "upper end" of risk, but this was on par with statewide assessments and climate inputs.
"The methodologies we used for the flood study are consistent with other studies and the trajectory of climate change," he said.
"We've never used anything but that."
In the last decade, Mr South said he had worked on around 20 flood studies, half of which he had led, and the push-back in Warrnambool was "a first".
During Monday night's council meeting, four councillors opposed the flood study, claiming the science was "difficult to comprehend", based on "assumptions", lacked detail, and was unable to be validated.
Councillor Vicki Jellie raised the motion against the referral of the study to the state government.
"How do we, with the utmost certainty, know that we can believe this data and supposed science?" Cr Jellie said.
"Some of this has been undoubtedly an assumption."
Councillors were also concerned about loss of land value and crippled development prospects.
Mayor Ben Blain was the only councillor to back the study and told the ABC that failure to formally integrate the flood investigation into the council's planning schemes was a loss for residents, prospective buyers, and the region in general.
"There's now no obligation for sellers to tell buyers that land falls in flood zones, there will be houses built in floodways, and insurance premiums will sky-rocket."
