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RNZ News
16 hours ago
- Politics
- RNZ News
Israel's attacks on Iran hint at bigger goal
By Crispian Balmer, Michael Martina and Matt Spetalnick , Reuters Iranian worshippers chant slogans during an anti-Israeli gathering after Friday prayers in Tehran, Iran, 2024. File photo. Photo: AP / Vahid Salemi Analysis - Israel's surprise attack on Iran had an obvious goal of sharply disrupting Tehran's nuclear programme and lengthening the time it would need to develop an atomic weapon. The scale of the attacks, Israel's choice of targets and its politicians' own words suggest another, longer-term objective - toppling the regime itself. The strikes early on Friday (local time) hit, not just Iran's nuclear facilities and missile factories, but also key figures in the country's military chain of command and its nuclear scientists, blows that appear aimed at diminishing Iran's credibility, both at home and among its allies in the region - factors that could destabilise the Iranian leadership, experts said. "One assumes that one of the reasons Israel is doing that is they're hoping to see regime change," said Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former senior official under President George W Bush. "It would like to see the people of Iran rise up," he said, adding that the limited civilian casualties in the initial round of attacks also spoke to a broader aim. In a video address shortly after Israeli fighter jets began striking Iranian nuclear facilities and air defence systems, Israel Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu appealed to the Iranian people directly. Photo: - Israel's actions against Iran's ally Hezbollah led to a new government in Lebanon and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, he said. The Iranian people had an opportunity too. "I believe that the day of your liberation is near and when that happens, the great friendship between our two ancient peoples will flourish once again," said Netanyahu Despite the damage inflicted by the unprecedented Israeli attack, decades of enmity toward Israel - not only among Iran's rulers, but its majority-Shi'ite population - raised questions about the prospect for fomenting enough public support to oust an entrenched theocratic leadership in Tehran, backed by loyal security forces. Singh cautioned that no-one knew what conditions would be required for an opposition to coalesce in Iran. Friday's assault was the first phase of what Israel said would be a prolonged operation. Experts said they expected Israel would continue to go after key Iranian nuclear infrastructure to delay Tehran's march to a nuclear bomb, even if Israel - on its own - did not have the capability to eliminate Iran's nuclear programme. Iran said its nuclear programme was for civilian purposes only. The UN nuclear watchdog concluded this week that it violated its obligations under the global non-proliferation treaty. Israel's first salvoes targeted senior figures in Iran's military and scientific establishment, took out much of the country's air defence system and destroyed the above-ground enrichment plant at Iran's nuclear site. "As a democratic country, the State of Israel believes that it is up to the people of a country to shape their national politics and choose their government," the Israeli embassy in Washington told Reuters. "The future of Iran can only be determined by the Iranian people." Netanyahu has called for a change in Iran's government, including in September. US President Donald Trump's administration, while acquiescing to Israel's strikes and helping its close ally fend off Iran's retaliatory missile barrage, has given no indication that it seeks regime change in Tehran. The White House and Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York also did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the matter. Israel has much further to go if it is to dismantle Iran's nuclear facilities and military analysts have always said it might be impossible to totally disable the well-fortified sites dotted around Iran. The Israeli government has also cautioned that Iran's nuclear programme could not be entirely destroyed by means of a military campaign. "There's no way to destroy a nuclear programme by military means," Israel's National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi told Israel's Channel 13 TV . The military campaign could, however, create conditions for a deal with the US that would thwart the nuclear programme. Analysts also remain sceptical that Israel will have the munitions needed to obliterate Iran's nuclear project on its own. "Israel probably cannot take out completely the nuclear project on its own, without the American participation," Sima Shine, a former chief Mossad analyst and now a researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, told reporters on Friday. While setting back Tehran's nuclear programme would have value for Israel, the hope for regime change could explain why Israel went after so many senior military figures, potentially throwing the Iranian security establishment into confusion and chaos. "These people were very vital, very knowledgeable, many years in their jobs and they were a very important component of the stability of the regime, specifically the security stability of the regime," Shine said. "In the ideal world, Israel would prefer to see a change of regime, no question about that." Such a change would come with risk, said Jonathan Panikoff, a former US deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East, who is now at the Atlantic Council. If Israel succeeds in removing Iran's leadership, there is no guarantee that the successor that emerges would not be even more hardline in pursuit of conflict with Israel. "For years, many in Israel have insisted that regime change in Iran would prompt a new and better day - that nothing could be worse than the current theocratic regime," Panikoff said. "History tells us it can always be worse." -Reuters
South China Morning Post
20 hours ago
- Politics
- South China Morning Post
As Israel strikes Iran, is regime change the ultimate target?
Israel's surprise attack on Iran had an obvious goal of sharply disrupting Tehran's nuclear programme and lengthening the time it would need to develop an atomic weapon. But the scale of the attacks, Israel's choice of targets, and its politicians' own words suggest another, longer-term objective: toppling the regime itself. The strikes early on Friday hit not just Iran's nuclear facilities and missile factories but also key figures in the country's military chain of command and its nuclear scientists, blows that appear aimed at diminishing Iran's credibility both at home and among its allies in the region – factors that could destabilise the Iranian leadership, experts said. 'One assumes that one of the reasons that Israel is doing that is that they're hoping to see regime change,' said Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former senior official under President George W. Bush. Israeli military aircraft preparing for strike operations in Iran. Photo: Israel Defence Forces via Xinhua 'It would like to see the people of Iran rise up,' he said, adding that the limited civilian casualties in the initial round of attacks also spoke to a broader aim.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Israel's unprecedented attack shows Iran has become a ‘playground' for the Mossad
Before Israel launched an unprecedented wave of strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities and top military leaders this week, its spies were already on the ground in enemy territory. Israeli intelligence agency Mossad had smuggled weapons into Iran ahead of the strikes, according to Israeli security officials, and would use the weapons to target Iran's defense from within. The officials said Israel established a base for launching explosive drones inside Iran, and the drones were later used to target missile launchers near Tehran. Precision weapons were also smuggled in and used to target surface-to-air missile systems, clearing the way for Israel's Air Force to carry out more than 100 strikes with upward of 200 aircraft in the early hours of Friday local time. The plan to disable Iranian defenses seems to have been effective; Israel said all of its aircraft returned safely from the first waves of strikes, appearing to show Israeli air superiority over parts of a country hundreds of miles away. Intelligence gathered by the Mossad in Iran also gave Israel's air force the ability to target senior Iranian commanders and scientists. In an incredibly rare move, the Mossad released video from some of its operations, showing drones attacking what appear to be unsuspecting missile launchers. It is the latest operation to show how deeply Israel's intelligence services, including the Mossad, have penetrated some of Iran's most closely guarded secrets. The operations have made the Mossad appear a nearly unstoppable force in Iran, capable of hitting at some of its highest-ranking officials and most sensitive sites. 'Mossad has treated Iran like its playground for years now,' said Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and curator of the Iranist newsletter. 'From assassinating top nuclear scientists to sabotaging Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel has proved time and time again that it has always had the upper hand in this shadow war that has now been playing out in the open since the first tit-for-tat strikes in April 2024.' An Israeli security source said the latest operation required commando forces operating deep within Tehran and across the country while avoiding detection from Iran's security and intelligence agencies. The source said Mossad teams targeted air defense missiles, ballistic missiles, and missile launchers as the attack from the Israeli Air Force began. A second Israeli security source said the Mossad operations were years in the making, involving both intelligence-gathering efforts and the deployment of Mossad commandos deep behind enemy lines. Some of the Mossad commando forces operated in the Iranian capital itself, according to the security source. In addition to the drone base established by the Mossad long before Wednesday's attack, Mossad commandos deployed 'precision-guided weapons systems' near Iranian missile air defense systems, which were activated at the same time as the Israeli air force began striking its targets. A second operation deployed sophisticated vehicle-mounted weaponry to target other Iranian defense systems. The Mossad operation also involved assassinations of top Iranian officials. Israel has shown – flaunted even – the Mossad's ability to operate with near impunity in Iran in the past. Starting in the early-2010s, Iran accused Israel of carrying out a campaign of assassinations against the country's nuclear scientists. Former Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon tacitly acknowledged the targeted killings when he said in 2015 that Israel cannot be held responsible 'for the life expectancy of Iran's nuclear scientists.' From 2007 to 2012 Israel allegedly carried out five covert assassinations, nearly all in Tehran, through remote-controlled bombings, or remote-controlled machine guns. Only one of Iran's key nuclear scientists survived the assassination attempt, Fereydoon Abbasi. Just last month, Abbasi told Iranian state media that any attack on production sites would have little impact on the timeline of developing a bomb, saying, 'our capabilities are spread all over the country. If they target production sites, it will be inconsequential to our timetable, because our nuclear materials are not stored above ground for them to hit.' Abbasi was one of the scientists killed in Israel's early morning attack in Tehran. The Mossad's actions soon became much more public. In early-2018, Israel stole Iran's nuclear archive from Tehran, displaying the intelligence coup in a live broadcast from Jerusalem. Speaking in English, Netanyahu showed off the archive, including what he said were copies of 55,000 pages of Iranian nuclear information and a display of discs he said were 55,000 files. Iran tried to dismiss Netanyahu's comments as 'childish' and 'laughable,' but the plundering of the archive showed the confidence Israel had in the Mossad's ability to function in Tehran. The operation, which would have required extensive planning and an intimate knowledge of the archive's location and security, pushed the first Trump administration to withdraw from the original nuclear agreement with Iran, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Israel wasn't done yet. In November 2020, Israel assassinated Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran's chief nuclear scientist, while he was in a bulletproof car traveling with his wife. Fakhrizadeh's car was moving in a convoy with three security vehicles when he came under fire. Iranian state media said a remote-controlled machine gun opened fire on the nuclear scientist, who had been a long-time target for Israel. The operation, which Israel has not publicly acknowledged, was carried out with remarkable precision, and it displayed a deep knowledge of Fakhrizadeh's pattern of life. And yet despite its repeated inability to stop the Mossad, Iran has proven incapable of improving. Ram Ben Barak, the former deputy director of the Mossad, said the organization's continued success is 'due to a very, very disliked regime, even hated by most of the public, so this allows for intelligence penetration on one hand, and on the other, you have the sophistication and professionalism of the Israeli intelligence personnel.' After the start of the war in Gaza, Israel assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran. A source familiar with the matter said Israel planted an explosive device in a guest house where Haniyeh was known to stay. The bomb was concealed in the room for two months before the targeted killing and detonated remotely once Haniyeh was in the room.
France 24
a day ago
- Politics
- France 24
Iranian missile sites: What the images of the Israeli air strikes show us
At 3:47am on June 13, Benjamin Netanyahu posted a video on his X account. "Moments ago, Israel launched Operation 'Rising Lion', a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival," the Israeli prime minister stated. In his statement, Netanyahu listed the targets of this operation, which aims to weaken military leadership, damage Iran's nuclear facilities, and target military sites for ballistic missile storage and launch. Israel "struck at the heart of Iran's ballistic missile programme", the Israeli prime minister stated. Several experts believe this objective is likely to severely limit the scope of Iranian retaliation. Most of these ballistic missiles have a range of 2,000 kilometres and are capable of targeting Israeli territory. 'The Israeli army considered an immediate Iranian missile retaliation as definitive, so they chose to pre-empt Iran by going after the launch capabilities so as to minimise the risks of Iranian retaliation,' said Farzin Nadimi, a research fellow at the Washington Institute and an expert on Iranian weaponry. Few images of targeted sites so far In a statement published on Telegram in the afternoon of June 13, the Israeli army stated it had destroyed "dozens of launchers, surface-to-surface missile storage facilities, and additional military sites'. It released a map showing all the sites it reportedly attacked, though these strikes have not been independently verified. The Israeli military also shared a graphic purportedly showing a strike on a launch site of surface-to-surface missiles in western Iran. The images show warehouses that the Israelis say contain surface-to-surface missiles, though this cannot be independently confirmed. The site in the video, which we have geolocated, is about ten kilometres from Borujerd, in western Iran. However, the FRANCE 24 Observers team was unable to independently verify that this site had been hit by the military. According to the map from the Israeli military, surface-to-surface missile sites in northwestern Iran, particularly around the city of Tabriz, were reportedly hit. However, while images of strikes have been geolocated near Tabriz, it's currently impossible to confirm that missile bases were actually struck. But Nadimi says it would be logical for such military sites, like the one in Tabriz, to be targeted by the Israeli army: "This base is one of the main missile bases of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, which was tasked with striking Israel during Operations Promise I and II.' The Iranian army launched a total of more than 300 ballistic missiles during these two operations conducted in April and October 2024. The Israeli military released further images, which our team has not been able to verify or geolocate. The images purportedly show a strike against a truck transporting a missile, as well as a Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL), a vehicle that can launch missiles. 'Even with their extensive underground missile bases, they still need to take their launchers with the missiles on them outside, prepare them, and erect them for launch in the open air," Nadimi said. These missiles are "most vulnerable" when they are being transported by these Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs), he added. "They do have the capabilities to launch from inside these bases because they have silos. They have launch holes and loaders that, technically or theoretically, should allow missiles to be launched without pulling them out of the base," Nadimi continued. "However, those might have also been targeted by Israeli missiles in order to disrupt Iran's covert launch operations," he added, also noting the need for "satellite imagery to confirm that these parts of the missile bases were indeed targeted". Underground base hit in Kermanshah Furthermore, there are indications that a missile base near Kermanshah, in the western part of the country, may have been hit. A video filmed from a car shows several plumes of smoke rising into the air. The video has been geolocated to the east of Kermanshah. It's impossible to say exactly what was hit. However, a base identified as a suspected missile deployment site in a 2021 report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a British international relations research institute, is located close to the affected areas. "Kermanshah missile base hit by the Israelis," Fabian Hinz, a military expert at the IISS and author of the aforementioned report, wrote on X. Sources also reportedly told the Lebanese media outlet al-Mayadeen, which is affiliated with Iran-backed Hezbollah, that "several missile bases near Tehran and in the city of Kermanshah" were attacked. Satellite images shared by the Open Source Center and captured by Airbus show damage to the roofs of several warehouses and the presumed entrance of an underground tunnel at the base. Iran's high command decimated In the operation, the Israeli military also killed top Iranian officials "while they were gathered in their underground headquarters". This included armed forces chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri, and the head of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami. Most leaders of the Revolutionary Guard's aerospace force, including Major General Amirali Hadjizadeh, were also killed, according to the Israeli Ministry of Defence. These significant losses may explain Iran's remarkably subdued response so far, according to analyst Nadimi. "We haven't seen a single ballistic missile launched at Israel," Nadimi said. "We should definitely consider the fact that the chain of command has been severely disrupted. This is the most likely reason [for the lack of military response], in addition to a very systematic Israeli attempt to take out launchers.' At the time of this article's publication, the Iranian military's retaliation had been limited to launching 136 drones and cruise missiles towards Israel, none of which reportedly reached Israeli territory.
Yahoo
06-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Far from being cowed by US airstrikes, Yemen's Houthis may be relishing them
For weeks, US airstrikes have pounded Houthi targets in Yemen, hitting oil refineries, airports and missile sites, with President Trump vowing to use 'overwhelming force' until the US achieves its goal of stopping the Houthis from targeting shipping in the Red Sea. The Houthis began the campaign in solidarity with Palestinians when Israel went to war in Gaza in October 2023. The group has carried out more than 100 attacks and have sunk two vessels. The result: 70% of merchant shipping that once transited the Red Sea now takes the long route around southern Africa. The US says the campaign is working. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said that multiple Houthi leaders had been killed. But every round of strikes provokes more defiance. The Houthis are what one veteran Yemen-watcher calls the honey badgers of resistance, referring to the belligerent mammal known for its fearless attitude toward predators. Bitten by a cobra, they get up minutes later and attack the snake. While as many as 80 Houthi military officers may have been killed, according to analysts, the senior echelon of its military and political leadership appears intact. So are at least some of its missile-launching sites. Since mid-March, the Houthis have launched a dozen ballistic missiles at Israel, and barrages of drones and missiles at US navy ships. While none caused major damage, the threat remains. CNN reported on Friday that the total cost of the US military's operation against the Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen is nearing $1 billion in just under three weeks, according to three people briefed on the campaign, but the attacks had so far had limited impact on destroying the group's capabilities. 'We are burning through readiness — munitions, fuel, deployment time,' said one official. Far from being cowed, the Houthis have threatened to extend their range of targets to the UAE, which backs the rival government to the Houthis in Yemen's Civil War. Similarly, Saudi officials say the Kingdom's air defenses are on high alert. 'The dozens of airstrikes on Yemen will not deter the Yemeni Armed Forces from fulfilling their religious, moral, and humanitarian duties,' said a Houthi spokesman earlier this week. There's no doubt that the US campaign has degraded the Houthis' capabilities. Michael Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, says he suspects the Houthis 'have lost a lot of drone manufacturing capability, and there does seem to be more effective interdiction of resupply shipments coming via the sea and via Oman. So the Houthis are not comfortable.' But history shows that the Houthis have an extraordinarily high tolerance for pain. And the Trump administration's determination to eradicate the threat they pose may ultimately require a ground offensive. 'The Houthis are just inured to being at war with a first world military,' Knights says.'They're ideological, but they're also very tough tribal fighters from northern Yemen.' The Houthis' ability to survive is helped by an elaborate smuggling network that brings in missile parts and other equipment. Last year, hidden among cargo on one intercepted ship, air frames and fins for artillery rockets, small turbojet engines and hydrogen fuel cells were discovered, according to an investigation by Conflict Armament Research (CAR). Such equipment could enable Houthi UAVs to carry larger payloads and to travel for far longer periods. That would 'greatly extend the potential threat posed by the Houthis,' CAR reported. The Houthis survived several offensives during the long presidency of Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, then a Saudi offensive ten years ago, followed by more recent Israeli, UK and US airstrikes. Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst on Yemen at the International Crisis Group, says Israel and western powers lack a deep understanding of the Houthis. 'Their opaque leadership and internal structure have created persistent gaps in intelligence.' Another Yemen expert, Elisabeth Kendall, questions the endgame of the US campaign. 'The Houthis have been bombed tens of thousands of times over the past decade and remain undeterred. So one is left thinking that the bombing is largely performative: let's show the world - we'll do it because we can.' Coercing the Houthis, Knights told CNN, is 'really, really difficult.' 'They are an extremely aggressive movement. The best way to end them permanently is to overthrow them, remove them from the capital, remove them from the Red Sea coast.' Regional diplomatic sources, as well as analysts, say that ultimately only a ground offensive can dislodge the Houthis, who currently control the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, its major port, Hodeidah, and much of northern Yemen. Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst on Yemen at the International Crisis Group, says the US is wrong to believe that airstrikes can compel the Houthis to back down. 'This approach failed under the Biden administration and is unlikely to succeed under the Trump administration.' 'Their logic is shaped by years of war; they see resilience as a form of strength and are driven to prove they are not easily deterred.' 'The only times I've ever seen the Houthis go to the negotiating table or compromise has been when they've been threatened with the realistic prospect of defeat on the ground: territorial loss, loss of control of populations and loss of access to the Red Sea coastline,' said Knights. That briefly happened in 2017 when forces backed by the United Arab Emirates threatened Houthi access to the Red Sea, critical for the Houthis' revenue and military supplies. The Houthis, if anything, may actually be relishing US strikes. They are a 'direct answer to the Houthi prayers to have a war with the US,' said Farea Al-Muslimi, a Yemeni research fellow at Chatham House. The group 'wants to drag the US into a larger regional escalation.' The Houthis are fighting for control of Yemen against the internationally recognized government that controls part of the south and is supported mainly by the UAE. The unanswered question is whether forces loyal to that government can take the fight to the Houthis. 'They're already trained and equipped,' says Knights. But there are doubts about their unity. Analysts do not expect the US to put any troops on the ground, beyond a handful of special forces to help direct airstrikes. The US would perhaps provide [Yemeni forces] 'with a bit of logistics, certain key munitions,' Knights says. The UAE would be 'quietly supportive' as it has long supplied the Aden-based government, he adds. The Saudi perspective is less clear. Knights believes Riyadh is apprehensive about the Houthis retaliating with long-range drones and missiles against its infrastructure. But the US has accelerated deliveries of anti-missile defenses to Saudi Arabia in recent months. The US will have to say to Riyadh: 'We are going to protect you in the same way that we protected Israel in 2024 from the two rounds of Iranian strikes,' says Knights. Regional diplomatic sources say preparations are underway for a ground operation that would be launched from the south and east, as well as along the coast. A coordinated offensive could also involve Saudi and US naval support in an attempt to retake the port of Hodeidah. 'Whether such an operation is feasible remains unclear, as the past decade has shown mixed outcomes, successes in some areas and failures in others,' Nagi told CNN. From day one, President Trump and other US officials have linked the campaign against the Houthis to Iran. Trump said he would hold Iran responsible for 'every shot' fired by Houthi rebels and it would face 'dire' consequences for any attacks by the Yemeni militants. So far it hasn't, and it's unclear whether Tehran can simply order the Houthis to stop firing. While very much part of Iran's axis of resistance, the Houthis retain considerable autonomy. Trump continues to warn Iran that it will face a massive bombing campaign if it doesn't do a deal to limit its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. For the administration, the Houthi campaign and the 'maximum pressure' campaign on Tehran are two sides of the same coin. The Iranians are treading carefully, offering moral support to their ally in Yemen. Former Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Mohsen Rezaee hailed 'the barefooted resistance forces of Yemen, who will bring advanced American warships to their knees.' But the Iranian leadership does not want to be seen providing further military support for the Houthis right now as it tries to work out Trump's mixture of small carrot and large stick. The US appears ready to expand its campaign. B-2 bombers and KC-135 refuelling planes have arrived on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. That may presage strikes on hardened targets in Yemen but may equally be a signal to Iran. The next few weeks may be a crucial test of the honey badgers' resilience.
