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Express Tribune
04-05-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Trump's policy shift flips US economy
Listen to article America the "Land of Opportunity" has become the "Land of Paradise Lost" as prosperity has been turned into poverty and industrial productivity has also has emerged as a driver of economic recession, causing high inflation, price hike, and shortage of basic necessities of life in major stores, leaving ordinary people feeling the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs. It is imminent that the US government, through quiet diplomacy, consultations, and negotiations, will approach Chinese authorities to stabilise its economy, sustain growth, streamline global supply chains, and smooth industrial production very soon. According to CNN, the decline from China will be even starker. JP Morgan expects a 75% to 80% drop in imports from there. When it comes to shipping and ports, even so, sailings from China to the US fell 60% in April, according to Flexport, a logistics and freight forwarding broker. Once the cargo hits US ports, the goods take as little as a few weeks to hit store shelves. And when the current inventory runs out, more expensive tariffed items will make their way onto shelves. Americans rely on China for thousands of products, everything from flat screen TVs to baby strollers. US businesses import more toys, apparel and footwear from China than any other country, according the United States International Trade Commission. The Economist has reported that the world is now desperate to assess the damage caused by Donald Trump's swingeing tariffs on Chinese imports, and pundits are again using innovative techniques. Their findings suggest the world's biggest economy is not reeling yetbut trouble is creeping in. Even before the implementation of many tariffs on April 9, polling suggested American consumers and businesses were worried. According to a survey by the Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve, manufacturers' output fell to a record low in April. And figures released on April 30 showed that America's GDP contracted by 0.3% in annualised terms. The trade deficit swelled as companies rushed to build up inventories of foreign goods before the tariffs came into effect. Centre for South Asia and International Studies Islamabad Executive Director Dr Mehmoodul Hassan Khan said, "From Adam Smith's classic book Wealth of Nations to Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo's Poor Economics and Abhijit's Good Economics for Hard Times, all clearly uphold that the continuity and deepening of structural reforms are essential for economic stability and sustainability. Policy abruption only achieves ashes, shamans, smoking mirrors producing policy disconfirm, economic uncertainty and societal disarray and it is happening in the USA, the "Land of Dreams" which has now become "Land of Decry." Evidently, the economic reversal has become a bitter reality, leaving the US population as 'wondering souls.' The US government urgently needs straightforward economic engineering, people-focused marketing strategies, social entrepreneurship, the revival of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), community development experts, and an innovative, knowledge-based economy. These elements will propel its economy, society, and industries towards greater sustainability and diversity, reducing the trade surplus in the US's favour, rather than pursuing excessive tariffs. International trade expert Dr Aadil Nakhoda said "We are already seeing a fall in the economic indicators in the US. So, the confidence is low as such measures have hampered the business sector. As the US may have difficulty in procuring substitutes locally and from other sources, the economy will move in reverse till the supply chains are restored. As the US-China trade reduces, "we can anticipate that other countries will take proactive steps and make arrangements to form a low tariff corridor, create multilateral agreements to absorb the shocks, ensure that collaboration in productive capacities creates better synergies across smaller countries and potentially use the sum of their trading power to negotiate diplomatically for concessions," he added. First, it is important to note that although imports to GDP is only 16% in the US, the US is mainly a service-oriented economy with demand for manufactured goods being catered through imports. Therefore, shortages will hit the supply chains, especially of low valued goods purchased from China. Right now this trade war is limited to China as other countries have been given a pause. There will be settlement soon once both sides have exhausted their power to resist. JP Morgan, Wall Street, The Economists, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB) and many independent economists are divided to predict the future of the US economy however, one thing is crystal clear that recession, inflation, acute price hike, shortage of routine items, and declining consumer spending are hurting the US economy and political outlook. The dissenting tone of more than 12 states especially California (the larger than the economy of Germany) defiance of some local industries (IT, mobiles, computers, and digitalization), division in the cabinet and fading charisma of Trump as Chief Deal Maker has not yet conquered Xi's statesmanship, visionary economic policies, befitting global socio-politico plans and public goods have become living realities. Thus emerging trends are pushing towards fatal fears compelling faulty lines in the US economy standing far away in terms of GDP, industrial development, digitalization, AI, green technologies and robotic modernization as compared to China which has become the real champion of digitalization, modernization, AI, and all emerging futuristic fusions. It fears that idle ships and empty ports will be the future of shipping companies having no orders for international trade. Despite the US President Donald Trump, China will remain America's most important trading partner. However, because of the ongoing staggering tariffs and trade war there will be shortage of clothes, footwear, electronics and microchips, which power appliances, thermostats and anything else that beeps. Additionally, some products will be hard to find or may be too expensive to buy in the future. National Retail Federation (May 2025) estimates that imports into the United States during the second half of 2025 are expected to fall at least 20% year over year, painting a weak economic prospects of the US economy. It is predicted that international trade will be the easiest prey of ongoing US trade and tariffs. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) role, status, authority and conflict resolution ability will be further marginalized because of King Trump self-centric policies which have now been dubbed some jerk policies which do not have justifications. Dr Khan said the US-China trade war will significantly squeeze international trade and the global economy, primarily through increased tariffs and trade uncertainty. This has led to decreased trade volumes between the two countries, disruptions in global supply chains, and overall economic instability. Reduction in trade volumes, disruption in supply chain, trade diversion, rise to global south, predominating role of the BRICS, Shangai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Belt Road Initiative (BRI) would be bitter realities. THE WRITER IS A STAFF CORRESPONDENT
Yahoo
03-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Warren Buffett: 'Trade should not be a weapon'
The first question for Warren Buffett at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting involved world trade as President Trump's tariff policy disrupts the status quo. "Trade should not be a weapon," Buffett said at the end of a detailed answer about the history of the United States and how global trade developed. "We should be looking to trade with the rest of the world," the 94-year-old investor said, "and we should do what we do best, and they should do what they do best. ... I do not think it's a great idea to try and design a world where a few countries say 'ha ha ha we've won,' and other countries are envious." Buffett later added that "the United States, we've won. We've become an incredibly important country, starting from nothing 250 years ago. There's nothing that's anything like it. And it's a big mistake, in my view, when you have 7.5 billion people that don't like you very well and 300 million that are crowing in some way about how well they've done. I don't think it's right, and I don't think it's wise." In an interview earlier this year, Buffett said tariffs can be an act of economic war. Buffett reiterated these comments on Saturday, saying: "Trade can be an act of war. And I think it's led to bad things." Part of the question touched on Buffett's 2003 plan to create "import certificates" that would reimagine how trade is accounted for. Buffett said the goal was simply to find a way to balance trade around the world — adding that his longtime partner Charlie Munger considered the idea somewhat of a gimmick. "Don't expect my import certificate idea to go down with Adam Smith's 'Wealth of Nations,'" Buffett quipped. Check out our liveblog for full coverage of the 2025 Berkshire annual shareholders meeting > Sign in to access your portfolio
Time of India
03-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
'Trade should not be a weapon': Warren Buffett warns US against weaponizing trade at 2025 Berkshire AGM
Warren Buffett (File photo) Warren Buffett used the spotlight at the 2025 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting to issue a pointed warning: 'Trade should not be a weapon.' Reaffirming his globalist economic philosophy, the legendary investor defended his 2003 'import certificates' idea while criticizing rising protectionist sentiments and tariffs, which he now views as acts of 'economic war. ' Buffett's comments came in response to a shareholder question referencing his 2003 Fortune article, where he had proposed a trade-balancing mechanism involving import certificates. Speaking to thousands gathered in Omaha, he clarified the distinction 'The import certificates were distinct [from tariffs], but their goal was to balance imports against exports so that the trade deficit would not grow in an enormous way.' He emphasized that the core intent was to promote balanced global trade while including safeguards to support developing economies: 'They had various other provisions in it to help third world countries… but basically, they were designed to balance trade.' While acknowledging that the plan gained little traction — even with his longtime partner Charlie Munger, who found the concept 'a little too much like Rube Goldberg' — Buffett stood by the underlying principle: 'You can make very good arguments for the fact that balanced trade is good for the world… and the more balanced trade there is, the better.' Buffett reflected on America's transformation from a purely agricultural economy into a global industrial power over the last 250 years. But he expressed concern about the growing use of trade policy as a geopolitical tool, cautioning, 'There's no question that trade can be an act of war. And I think it's led to bad things — just the attitudes it's brought out in the United States.' He warned of the risks of nationalism and economic triumphalism in a nuclear world: 'We want a prosperous world. With eight countries with nuclear weapons — including a few that are quite unstable — I don't think it's a great idea to design a world where a few countries say, 'Ha ha, we've won.'' Buffett underlined the importance of cooperation, suggesting that global prosperity would benefit the US, not hurt it: 'The more prosperous the rest of the world becomes, it won't be at our expense — the more prosperous we'll become. And the safer we'll feel, and your children will feel someday.' He joked that his proposal wouldn't be enshrined alongside economic classics like Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations, adding: 'Don't expect my import certificate idea to go down there… but if anyone wants a copy, we've probably got extras.' Buffett concluded by calling for a return to constructive trade relationships built on mutual benefit, not zero-sum competition. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Yahoo
03-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting: Buffett says trade 'should not be a weapon'
The annual Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B) shareholder meeting is underway. Called "Woodstock for Capitalists," the weekend's main event kicked off with legendary investor Warren Buffett taking questions from CNBC's Becky Quick and Berkshire shareholders. Buffett is onstage with Greg Abel and Ajit Jain. Abel, who runs Berkshire's operating businesses, is set to take over as CEO of Berkshire after Buffett. Jain runs Berkshire's insurance operations. The first question was about trade amid the backdrop of President Trump's tariff policy. "We should be looking to trade with the rest of the world, and we should do what we do best, and they should do what they do best, Buffett said, later adding: "Trade should not be a weapon.' Buffett, Abel, and Jain are scheduled to take questions from 9:00 a.m. ET to 11:30 a.m. ET. After a 30-minute break, Buffett and Abel will take questions for another two hours. On Saturday morning, Berkshire reported earnings that showed lower operating profit in the first quarter, down 14.1% year over year to $9.64 billion, with the drag coming from insurance operations. The company's cash pile grew to a record $347.7 billion as of March 31. The company's stock has been an outperformer this year, rising more than 18% year-to-date against a 3% drop for the S&P 500. In his February letter to shareholders, Buffett noted that despite the company's massive pile of cash, "the great majority of your money remains in equities. That preference won't change." The first question Warren Buffett took on Saturday was, predictably, about tariffs. "Trade should not be a weapon," Buffett said. "The United States, we've won. We've become an incredibly important country, starting from nothing. And it's a big mistake, in my view, when you have 7.5 billion people that don't like you very well and 300 million that are crowing in some way about how well they've done." In an interview earlier this year, Buffett said tariffs can be an act of economic war. Buffett reiterated these comments on Saturday, saying: "Trade can be an act of war. And I think it's led to bad things." Asked about his 2003 plan to create "import certificates" that would reimagine how trade is accounted for, Buffett said the goal was simply to find a way to balance trade around the world. Though as Buffett noted, his longtime partner Charlie Munger considered the idea somewhat of a gimmick. "Don't expect my import certificate idea to go down with Adam Smith's 'Wealth of Nations,'" Buffett said. At the top of Saturday's annual meeting, Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett spent some time going around the room, introducing the company's directors, giving a long thank you to longtime director Ron Olson, and then thanking one guest in attendance in particular — Apple CEO Tim Cook. "I'm somewhat embarrassed to say that Tim Cook has made Berkshire a lot more money than I've ever made Berkshire Hathaway," Buffett said, in classic Buffett fashion. Buffett went on to add that while Steve Jobs did things only he could've done to set Apple on the course it continues today, it was Jobs who tabbed Cook to take over. Apple is Berkshire's largest single stock position. The big headline to emerge from Berkshire's first quarter results posted Saturday was continued growth in the company's cash pile, which now exceeds $347 billion. That's up from around $188 billion a year ago. In its first quarter report, the company also disclosed that it declined to repurchase any shares of the company. Buffett had said in the past he would only repurchase shares if the stock fell below 1.2 times book value; the stock trades closer to 1.8 times book value per share today. And though Buffett softened his stance on this rule, the decision not to repurchase Berkshire shares — while also paring the company's other equity holdings — shows there are simply very few assets the Oracle of Omaha finds interesting right now. We expect this theme to dominate the proceedings on Saturday. Reuters published a "Factbox" with some details about 94-year-old CEO Warren Buffett and the Berkshire Hathaway empire. Via Reuters: Read more here. NEW YORK (Reuters) -Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway on Saturday reported a lower operating profit in the first quarter, hurt by weaker results from its insurance operations, while its cash pile continued to grow. Operating profit for the Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate dropped 14.1% to $9.64 billion from $11.22 billion a year earlier. Net income, including unrealized gains and losses from Berkshire's common stock investments, was down roughly 64% to $4.6 billion, or $3,200 per Class A share, from $12.7 billion a year earlier. Berkshire's cash stake set a new record, rising to $347.7 billion as of March 31 from $334.2 billion at year-end. Berkshire was a net seller of stocks for a 10th straight quarter, as it bought $3.18 billion and sold $4.68 billion. Read more here. As investors and observers await legendary investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett speak at the Berkshire's annual shareholders meeting, one topic is at top of mind: tariffs. "The far-reaching nature of their businesses and investments make them a microcosm for the whole economy," Cathy Seifert, an analyst at CFRA, told Reuters. "The overarching concern is we need insight into the degree to which tariffs will cause demand destruction or a slowdown in the economy." Robin Nasser, a certified public accountant who is attending the meeting, told Reuters: 'Warren Buffett has steered away from discussing tariffs, and people are clamoring to hear what he thinks. He obviously knows something we don't because he's stockpiling cash.' Read Reuters' entire preview here. The first question Warren Buffett took on Saturday was, predictably, about tariffs. "Trade should not be a weapon," Buffett said. "The United States, we've won. We've become an incredibly important country, starting from nothing. And it's a big mistake, in my view, when you have 7.5 billion people that don't like you very well and 300 million that are crowing in some way about how well they've done." In an interview earlier this year, Buffett said tariffs can be an act of economic war. Buffett reiterated these comments on Saturday, saying: "Trade can be an act of war. And I think it's led to bad things." Asked about his 2003 plan to create "import certificates" that would reimagine how trade is accounted for, Buffett said the goal was simply to find a way to balance trade around the world. Though as Buffett noted, his longtime partner Charlie Munger considered the idea somewhat of a gimmick. "Don't expect my import certificate idea to go down with Adam Smith's 'Wealth of Nations,'" Buffett said. At the top of Saturday's annual meeting, Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett spent some time going around the room, introducing the company's directors, giving a long thank you to longtime director Ron Olson, and then thanking one guest in attendance in particular — Apple CEO Tim Cook. "I'm somewhat embarrassed to say that Tim Cook has made Berkshire a lot more money than I've ever made Berkshire Hathaway," Buffett said, in classic Buffett fashion. Buffett went on to add that while Steve Jobs did things only he could've done to set Apple on the course it continues today, it was Jobs who tabbed Cook to take over. Apple is Berkshire's largest single stock position. The big headline to emerge from Berkshire's first quarter results posted Saturday was continued growth in the company's cash pile, which now exceeds $347 billion. That's up from around $188 billion a year ago. In its first quarter report, the company also disclosed that it declined to repurchase any shares of the company. Buffett had said in the past he would only repurchase shares if the stock fell below 1.2 times book value; the stock trades closer to 1.8 times book value per share today. And though Buffett softened his stance on this rule, the decision not to repurchase Berkshire shares — while also paring the company's other equity holdings — shows there are simply very few assets the Oracle of Omaha finds interesting right now. We expect this theme to dominate the proceedings on Saturday. Reuters published a "Factbox" with some details about 94-year-old CEO Warren Buffett and the Berkshire Hathaway empire. Via Reuters: Read more here. NEW YORK (Reuters) -Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway on Saturday reported a lower operating profit in the first quarter, hurt by weaker results from its insurance operations, while its cash pile continued to grow. Operating profit for the Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate dropped 14.1% to $9.64 billion from $11.22 billion a year earlier. Net income, including unrealized gains and losses from Berkshire's common stock investments, was down roughly 64% to $4.6 billion, or $3,200 per Class A share, from $12.7 billion a year earlier. Berkshire's cash stake set a new record, rising to $347.7 billion as of March 31 from $334.2 billion at year-end. Berkshire was a net seller of stocks for a 10th straight quarter, as it bought $3.18 billion and sold $4.68 billion. Read more here. As investors and observers await legendary investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett speak at the Berkshire's annual shareholders meeting, one topic is at top of mind: tariffs. "The far-reaching nature of their businesses and investments make them a microcosm for the whole economy," Cathy Seifert, an analyst at CFRA, told Reuters. "The overarching concern is we need insight into the degree to which tariffs will cause demand destruction or a slowdown in the economy." Robin Nasser, a certified public accountant who is attending the meeting, told Reuters: 'Warren Buffett has steered away from discussing tariffs, and people are clamoring to hear what he thinks. He obviously knows something we don't because he's stockpiling cash.' Read Reuters' entire preview here. Sign in to access your portfolio
Wall Street Journal
09-04-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
WSJ Opinion: Why Musk vs. Navarro Matters
Videos that speak for free markets and free people, the principles, if you will, marked in the watershed year of 1776 by Thomas Jefferson's Declaration of Independence and Adam Smith's "Wealth of Nations."
