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City may see rise in heatwave days, erratic rain events: Study
City may see rise in heatwave days, erratic rain events: Study

Time of India

time2 days ago

  • Climate
  • Time of India

City may see rise in heatwave days, erratic rain events: Study

Chennai: Chennai is among eight Indian cities likely to face a two-fold increase in heatwave days in the next five years, with extended heatwave conditions expected to trigger more frequent, erratic, and incessant rainfall events, says a new study. The city, along with several coastal districts, is projected to undergo rapid microclimatic changes driven by land-use shifts, deforestation, and loss of wetlands and mangroves. Climate change is expected to drive a 43% rise in the intensity of extreme rainfall events across India, making it simultaneously hotter and wetter. "More than 75% of districts in 10 states, including TN, will face the double burden of heat stress and erratic, incessant rainfall by 2030. These districts are likely to experience at least one instance of a heatwave during March, April, or May." The study was conducted by by IPE-Global, involved in sustainable development, and Esri India, a company involved in GIS software and related solutions. 'Weathering the Storm: Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate,' which assessed the link between extreme heat and erratic rainfall, was released at the International Global-South Climate Risk Symposium. By 2030, it said, 69% of coastal districts are projected to experience prolonged summer discomfort due to heat stress-like conditions during the June-Sept season, a figure that may rise to 79% by 2040. Under a business-as-usual climate scenario, where current emission trends and policies continue unchecked, Chennai and other identified hotspots could see up to a 63% change in land-use and land-cover by 2030. India already recorded a 15-fold increase in extreme heatwave days between March-May and June-Sept in the past three decades, with a 19-fold increase in the last decade alone. "Meteorological phenomena like El Niño and La Niña are gaining stronger momentum, leading to abrupt surges in climate extremes such as floods, cyclones, storm surges, and extreme heat," said Abinash Mohanty, head of Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and lead author. "Our analysis suggests that around 72% of tier-I and tier-II cities will increasingly face heat stress and extreme rainfall, with storm surges, lightning, and hailstorms. " Among the key recommendations of the study, which used spatial and temporal data along with climate models, is setting up a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) to assess risks in real-time and develop risk financing tools to mitigate impacts of heatwaves and extreme rainfall events.

India to face twice as many heatwave days, 43% rise in extreme rainfall by 2030 due to climate change: Study
India to face twice as many heatwave days, 43% rise in extreme rainfall by 2030 due to climate change: Study

New Indian Express

time3 days ago

  • Climate
  • New Indian Express

India to face twice as many heatwave days, 43% rise in extreme rainfall by 2030 due to climate change: Study

NEW DELHI: A new study reveals that climate change is expected to cause a 43% increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall events throughout the country, along with a two-fold rise in heatwave days in major Indian cities. It recommends establishing a climate observatory to provide real-time early warnings about extreme weather events to help minimise damage. Conducted by IPE Global and Esri India, the study titled "Weathering the Storm: Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate" analysed district-level spatial and temporal assessments to develop heat stress scenarios for the years 2030 and 2040. It aimed to establish a connection between climate change and the increased frequency and unpredictability of extreme rainfall and heatwave events. According to the study, major cities in India, including Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Patna, Surat, Bhubaneswar, and Thane, are likely to experience a twofold increase in heatwave days by 2030. These rising heatwave conditions are expected to lead to more erratic and intense rainfall. 'Extended heat wave conditions are likely to trigger more frequent, incessant and erratic rainfall events,' said Abinash Mohanty of IPE Global, a co-author of the paper. The paper underlines the grim situation of climate change's impact. It points out that 8 out of 10 districts in India are going to experience multiple instances of incessant and erratic rainfall by 2030. 'The frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of these extreme heat and rainfall events have risen significantly in recent decades,' said Mohanty.

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