Latest news with #WelshElection
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
What Eluned Morgan's Welsh Labour needs to do to win the Senedd election
On Saturday night, some of Labour's biggest hitters were in a room listening to the findings of hours of polling and analysis about what the numbers show about Labour's electoral chances in 2026. The Welsh Election Study is a comprehensive piece of work that looks at voting patterns and results from the 2024 general election, and the results did not make comfortable listening for Labour but anyone who left that room thinking the words can be ignored would be wrong. The Welsh Government was not popular at the general election, people viewed it negatively, but Labour still did well, because the UK Government was less popular. READ MORE: Eluned Morgan gave three reasons why people should not vote for Nigel Farage READ MORE: Angry farmers take over Welsh town with tractors to deliver Keir Starmer message On key metrics like education and the NHS, people think services have got worse, and it is the Welsh Government's fault. That is clearly a problem for Labour. People think their standard of living has got worse, but for that they blamed the UK Government mainly, but it still wasn't good news for the Welsh Government. That discontent is playing out in polls - more than now one - projecting the party which has had a longstanding record of success in Wales will get 18% of the vote at the Senedd election in just over 10 months time. Of course, it is more than just Labour policies, there are global matters at play, there is a tendency across the western world to turn away from established politics. Populist politicians and parties are doing well the world over. Wars, finances, the economic climate are all things out of Labour's control. But when this room of experts were asked to list the thing they think Labour needs to do, the message was fairly simple. Labour in Wales needs a clear set of simple messages and with a clear intended audience. That's not so hard, is it? Well, maybe. The background is this, UK Labour is targeting its attacks at Reform. But it's not really clear why when you look at who voted for Reform UK in 2024, thus giving us an insight who may do it in 2026. We know Reform is expected to do well in the election in May 2026 and it could end up as the biggest party, so too could Plaid Cymru. With the obvious disclaimers that the election is a long way away, far from the front of most peoples' minds, and that polling is just a snapshot in time, there is one thing crystal clear - no-one expects it to be Labour. And yet, Eluned Morgan keeps talking about Nigel Farage and the danger his party poses. The First Minister made that clear when she said they were a "real danger" to the NHS in Wales, workers rights, public services. However, it isn't (on the whole) Labour voters - the WES data shows - who are going to vote for them. UK Labour keeps targeting Reform policies too - despite the same being true in England too. Reform isn't taking swathes of Labour voters. The support Labour is losing is mainly, Plaid, but also Lib Dems and Greens. Reform is gaining support in Wales is coming from a combination of new voters (those who don't normally vote) and disaffected Conservatives. And yet it was Reform that Keir Starmer, Jo Stevens and Eluned Morgan mainly chose to target - although the latter two did mention Plaid Cymru too. The message from academic experts at the party event was to work out who they are focusing on. The other message that came from the event was that the messages need to be simple. The First Minister told BBC Wales' Sunday Supplement she "I am responsible for making sure the party has a clear sense of direction and purpose within Wales". She spoke on the radio that she was focusing on the "bread and butter issues". And yet, that is one of the biggest criticisms from her within the party - that there isn't clear direction. There are concerns she has far too many communications advisors, and not enough focusing on actual policy, resulting in a scattergun approach. When her party colleagues went to Llandudno, they heard her speech cover the bases you'd expect - well rehearsed pledges about waiting times and potholes - and she added in commitments to mental health and £5m to tidying up towns (albeit divisible by 22 local authorities) but there was also an eight minute segment about Artificial Intelligence committing money, resources, and now a pre-election pledge to something, quite frankly, something that many simply don't understand how Wales would ever have a stake in. There was widespread confusion why, in a central speech at a crucial time, the First Minister spent eight minutes of her speech talking about AI and committing £2.5m to the development of "excellence zone" in Wales. It was, more than one person said, typical of the chaotic approach at the top of Welsh Labour, with ideas switched between at the drop of a hat. No-one really saw that coming, and knows what it actually means in Wales, nor what £2.5m of funding can actually do to achieve. It is just pennies in a vast virtual ocean. She is facing repeating questions too about her influence on Keir Starmer's government. While Eluned Morgan kept telling journalists that Welsh Government pressure had helped force the welfare u-turn, but the pressure came from rebelling MPs. When Eluned Morgan's Welsh Government wrote a letter detailing the impact the welfare cuts will have on Wales, only five MPs signed it. So it's no surprise she faced questions what her role as Welsh Labour leader means in terms of the 27-strong bloc of MPs who represent Wales. Eluned Morgan says the next election is a "moment of reckoning". She isn't wrong. When we asked her if this focus on Nigel Farage risked glamorising the party too much sway in Wales she was clear, "there is nothing glamorous about Reform". The problem she has is convincing people there is something glamorous about Welsh Labour.
The Independent
13-06-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
Wales will overhaul its democracy at the next election. Here's what's changing
Next May's Senedd (Welsh parliament) election won't just be another trip to the polls. It will mark a major change in how Welsh democracy works. The number of elected members is increasing from 60 to 96, and the voting system is being overhauled. These changes have now passed into law. But what exactly is changing – and why? When the assembly was first established in 1999, it had limited powers and just 60 members. Much has changed since then and it now has increased responsibility, including primary law-making powers over matters such as health, education, environment, transport and economic development. The Wales Act 2014 also bestowed a number of new financial powers on the now Senedd, including taxation and borrowing powers. But its size has stayed the same. This led to concerns about capacity and effectiveness. In 2017, an independent expert panel on electoral reform concluded that the Senedd was no longer fit for purpose. It warned that 60 members simply weren't enough to scrutinise the Welsh government, pass legislation and respond to constituents. A bigger chamber, it argued, would improve both the quality of lawmaking and democratic accountability. Wales also has fewer elected politicians per person than any other UK nation. Scotland has 129 MSPs, while Northern Ireland has 90 MLAs. Even with next year's changes, Wales will still have fewer elected members per citizen compared with Northern Ireland. More Senedd members could ease workloads, improve local representation and importantly, may encourage a more diverse pool of people to stand for office. How is the voting system changing? Alongside expansion will be a change in how Senedd members are elected. Since its inception, Wales has used the 'additional member system', which is a mix of first-past-the-post for constituency seats and proportional representation for regional ones. From 2026, that system will be replaced by a closed list proportional system, using the D'Hondt method. It's a system which is designed to be fairer, ensuring that the proportion of seats a party wins more closely reflects the votes they get. But it also means voters will have less say over which individuals get elected. Wales will be divided into 16 constituencies, each electing six MSs. Instead of voting for a single candidate, voters will choose one party or an independent candidate. Parties will submit a list of up to eight candidates per constituency. Seats will then be allocated based on the overall share of the vote each party gets, with candidates elected in the order they appear on their party's list. For example, if a party wins a percentage share of the vote equating to three seats, the top three people on their party list will be elected. The calculation for this is defined by the D'Hondt formula. The decision to adopt this method in Wales was one of the recommendations of the special purpose committee on Senedd reform in 2022. Several countries across Europe use this system for their elections, including Spain and Portugal. In countries with small constituency sizes, D'Hondt has sometimes favoured larger parties and made it harder for smaller parties to gain ground. That's something observers in Wales will be watching closely. An alternative method, Sainte-Laguë, used in Sweden and Latvia, is often seen as more balanced in its treatment of small and medium-sized parties, potentially leading to more consensual politics. But it, too, has its downsides. In countries which have many smaller parties, it can lead to fragmented parliaments and make decision-making more difficult. In sum, no system is perfect. But D'Hondt was chosen for its balance between proportionality, simplicity and practicality. Could this confuse voters? One concern is the growing differences between electoral systems across the UK and even within Wales itself. At the UK level, first-past-the-post (FPTP) is the method used for Westminster elections. Meanwhile, some Welsh councils are experimenting with the single transferable vote method, which lets voters rank candidates in order of preference. So, some people in Wales could find themselves navigating three different voting systems for three different elections. Obviously, this raises the risk of confusion. Voters who are used to one vote and the 'winner takes all' nature of FPTP may be confused by how seats are allocated in Wales come 2026. With numerous different systems, the risk is that people do not fully understand how their vote translates into representation. In turn, this risks undermining confidence and reducing voter turnout. Voters will need clear, accessible information on how their vote works – and why it matters. But this is particularly challenging when UK-wide media often defaults to FPTP-centric language and framing surrounding debates, which can shape public expectations. News about Wales often barely registers beyond its borders, while news about politics in Wales barely registers within. Electoral reform often prompts broader conversations. As Welsh voters adjust to the new proportional system, some may begin to question Westminster's FPTP model, especially if the Senedd better reflects the diversity of votes cast. FPTP is frequently criticised for producing 'wasted votes' and encouraging tactical voting, particularly in safe seats. Under a more proportional system, tactical voting becomes less necessary, which has the potential to shift voter habits in Wales. If the 2026 reform leads to a more representative and effective Senedd, it may not only reshape Welsh democracy, but reignite debates about electoral reform across the UK.
