Latest news with #WestonNakamura
Yahoo
03-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Asia Morning Briefing: Crypto Industry 'Unprepared' For Quantum Threat Says Analyst
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas. Bitcoin BTC is trading around $106,402.39 as Asia begins its trading day, up roughly 0.9%, recovering slightly from a weekend decline attributed to significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased geopolitical uncertainty. The largest digital asset by market cap had previously dropped 2% from $105,987 to $103,748 amid notable trading volume spikes, influenced by $616 million in ETF outflows, marking the end of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust's 31-day inflow streak, and heightened tensions from stalled U.S.-China trade talks. Analysts are increasingly watching BTC's unconventional correlation with Japan's 30-year government bond yields, as highlighted by macro strategist Weston Nakamura. Nakamura suggests that this alignment, stronger recently than traditional connections with U.S. equities, implies a deeper global macro shift in financial markets, indicating Japan's growing influence over cross-asset dynamics. As investors navigate these complex macroeconomic factors, bitcoin continues to test crucial support levels near $104,300, reflecting both caution and ongoing market volatility. Crypto could face catastrophe if it continues to overlook quantum computing's advancing threat, warns Rick Maeda of Presto Research, who recently published a report on quantum risks, which argued that the industry was unprepared. A key barrier, he said in an interview with CoinDesk, is an economic incentive issue, as investors remain reluctant to fund quantum-resistant technology because he argued that 'it's difficult to create a way to monetize this.' "Crypto is underprepared," he said. "The biggest risk is just waiting too long." Maeda argues that blockchains dependent on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) urgently need systematic preparation to withstand future quantum attacks. "Preparation has to come almost linearly, because we can't wait until the threat is real to start taking it seriously," he told CoinDesk in an interview. "By then, it's already too late." Yet Maeda offers several caveats to balance fears about quantum computing's immediate capabilities. He argues that current quantum systems operate at only around 10 logical qubits with high error rates, significantly below the thousands needed to compromise ECC. Additionally, recent quantum advancements, such as Google's processor developments, come with trade-offs in efficiency versus accuracy. While immediate panic isn't necessary, Maeda emphasizes the urgency of incremental, sustained efforts to bolster cryptocurrency's defenses before quantum threats become a reality. Meta shareholders overwhelmingly rejected a proposal to shift some of the company's $72 billion cash reserves into bitcoin, with only 0.08% of nearly 5 billion votes cast supporting the initiative, CoinDesk previously reported. Proposed by Ethan Peck of wealth management firm Strive and backed by the conservative National Center for Public Policy Research, the measure aimed to hedge inflation risks by using bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset. Meta has previously ventured into crypto projects, notably the Libra stablecoin effort in 2019, which later collapsed amid regulatory pressures. Despite recent pullbacks from ambitious metaverse projects, the company continues exploring stablecoin-based payments across its platforms. Meta shares rose 3.5% on Monday, trading at $670.09 each. Crypto industry lobbyists are urging U.S. senators to stay focused as the GENIUS Act, a bill aimed at regulating stablecoin issuers, faces potential distraction from unrelated amendments during its final Senate debate, CoinDesk previously reported. Advocacy groups like the Blockchain Association and Crypto Council for Innovation emphasized the need to maintain the bill's narrow goal, especially as senators behind the Credit Card Competition Act try to attach their unrelated legislation as an amendment. The GENIUS Act, which targets the regulation of stablecoins such as Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC, has already garnered bipartisan support in the Senate Banking Committee. Despite complications from unrelated legislative additions, analysts from Capital Alpha Partners give the stablecoin bill a 60-65% chance of becoming law this year, noting that success in the Senate would mark a significant milestone, though the House of Representatives would also need to approve the legislation. BTC: Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $106,402.39, rebounding slightly after ETF outflows and geopolitical tensions triggered a weekend drop, as analysts highlighted its growing correlation with Japanese long-end bond yields. ETH: Ethereum gained 3% to $2,539.04 after staging a V-shaped recovery from intraday lows, supported by strong institutional inflows and resilient buying around the key $2,500 level. Gold: Gold surged over 2% to $3,371.40 on Monday, hitting a three-week high as the U.S. dollar weakened 0.27%, boosting safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. Nikkei 225: Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.36% Tuesday morning, as Asia-Pacific markets advanced following overnight Wall Street gains despite a resurgence in global trade tensions. S&P 500: U.S. stocks rose Monday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.4%, as investors brushed aside escalating trade tensions with China and the EU. Ethereum Foundation Lays Off Some Staff Amid R&D Restructuring (CoinDesk) Strategy to offer 2.5 million new 'Stride' preferred shares to fund its bitcoin buying spree (The Block) Ethereum Should Scale by 10X Over the Next Year: Vitalik Buterin (Decrypt)
Yahoo
02-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin, Bonds, and the Rising Influence of Japan's Yield Curve
Weston Nakamura founder of Across The Spread, a global markets analyst known for his macro insights through an Asia lens, highlights a surprising and increasingly critical macro relationship. According to Nakamura, Bitcoin BTC appears to be tracking long-end Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields specifically the 30-year more closely than its traditional correlation with U.S. equities like the Nasdaq 100. As BTC's price diverges from risk assets, its movements have begun aligning with surging JGB yields, both reaching record highs in recent months. Nakamura notes key moments in 2024 such as the launch of U.S.-listed spot BTC ETFs and Trump's re-election where BTC experienced brief, narrative-driven price bursts, only to eventually revert to a path consistent with long-end JGB yield movements. He argues this alignment is not simply a second-order effect of U.S. Treasury (UST) yields but a direct consequence of Japan's unique market dynamics. Reinforcing this view, Nakamura references a recent clip of U.S. Treasury official Scott Bessent, who asserts that UST yields are not being driven by domestic political dysfunction, but by global forces explicitly citing Japan. This raises the provocative idea that if U.S. policy is being shaped around the 10Y Treasury yield, and that yield is in turn being influenced by Japanese bond markets, then Japan may be indirectly guiding U.S. macro policy. Nakamura suggests JGBs are now at the center of the global financial system, influencing everything from crypto to equities, FX, and gold. In the meantime, he urges investors regardless of asset class to watch Japan closely, as its long-overlooked bond market could be exerting outsized influence on cross-asset behavior worldwide. Sign in to access your portfolio
