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The Herald Scotland
24-05-2025
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
SNP on track for Holyrood landslide on 35% vote
Using the Gallagher Index – a standard international measure of electoral disproportionality – Mr McGeoghegan found the 2026 Scottish Parliament election would score 27.3 for constituency seats alone. He said this would be the third–highest level of distortion globally if it occurred in a national election. READ MORE The current Additional Member System (AMS) used to elect MSPs combines first–past–the–post constituencies with a proportional top–up via regional lists. But Mr McGeoghegan warned that the balance has become increasingly skewed, particularly as the political landscape fragments and the pro–union vote is divided among multiple parties. Writing in The Herald, he said: 'This disproportionality is almost entirely a result of the first–past–the–post component of Holyrood's electoral system. The SNP are set to win just short of 60 of [the 73 constituency seats] – 82% of the seats on a 35% vote share.' The total Gallagher Index score for the full 2026 election is projected at 11.2 – more than 50% higher than the 7.1 recorded in 2011, when the SNP won a majority under a system designed to prevent any one party from doing so. The warning follows what has been described as the most disproportionate general election in British history. Labour won 63 per cent of seats at Westminster on just 34% of the vote, with a Gallagher Index score of 23.6 – higher than any UK election before it. The Electoral Reform Society said 16.6 million voters were now 'unrepresented' as a result. While the level of distortion in Scotland is not as extreme, the consequences could still be profound. According to Mr McGeoghegan, the likely result in 2026 is a pro–independence majority in Parliament – even if most voters back unionist parties. 'There is something grimly ironic about this,' he wrote. 'Holyrood's electoral system is a creature of Labour's creation. The lopsided Additional Member System, skewed towards constituency MSPs, was a compromise intended to keep power in Labour's hands. But… it now functions to keep power in the SNP's hands instead.' He added: 'If the SNP remain in power after next May, which they are likely to do, it will be thanks to the constituency vote. They are set to lose just four seats compared to the 2021 election, despite their vote share falling by around a third.' Responding to the research, Willie Sullivan of the Electoral Reform Society said the system could be improved, but was far better than the alternative. He said: 'My initial thoughts on this are thank God we do not have a first–past–the–post system for Scottish elections. We would be seeing large majority governments on nowhere near majority votes – and as the projection shows, no majority is expected in Scotland next year. 'As you know, it is an associative world, so it is important to be careful when suggesting a system that gives a huge majority on 34% of the vote is even in the ballpark as an election or system where the largest party will likely fail to get a majority on a similar or higher vote share. "Armed robbery and shoplifting are both theft – but they are not really the same thing. 'AMS does give much more representative results in multi–party systems, so is a vast improvement on FPTP. It is relatively very good, but could always be made better. 'The split in FPTP to the regional lists that adjust to make the result more proportional is 50 per cent to 45 per cent – and if it was wanted to make it more proportional, that could be 50/50. 'Also, the formula for calculating the top–up might be changed from D'Hondt to Sainte–Laguë, as D'Hondt does tend to provide a bit of a largest–party or winner bonus. In theory, these changes could be made fairly easily.'
The Herald Scotland
25-04-2025
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
Poll shows Scots feel anxious, angry and disconnected from politics
On a scale from 0 to 10 — where 0 is 'do not trust at all' and 10 is 'completely trust' — respondents gave political parties an average score of just 3.1, and politicians 2.8. Trust in local councils scored 4.1, the UK Parliament 3.4, and the Scottish Parliament 3.9. Read more: The survey suggests Scots want powers decentralised. When asked about levels of trust in local institutions, Scots reported a stronger connection to community councils than to either of the national parliaments. John Swinney held a summit aimed at tackling disenfranchisement The polling was commissioned ahead of a conference organised by ERS Scotland, and comes just days after First Minister John Swinney hosted a summit aimed at 'safeguarding Scotland's democracy' and addressing people's feelings of being unheard and disempowered. According to the survey, around three in ten adults, 31%, in Scotland say they always or often feel 'angry' about how things are in the country. A similar number, 30%, report frequently feeling anxious, exhausted and disconnected. Just 28% of respondents expressed feelings of hope or confidence. The polling also revealed splits on the issue of equality and diversity. While 58% said it must be considered in decision-making, 42% believed it gets in the way. Despite this disillusionment, there is a strong appetite for a more consensual political culture. Some 72% of people in Scotland said they prefer a leader who seeks consensus before making decisions, compared to a 'strong leader' who acts without compromise. Similarly, 73% agreed that parliaments should consider all opinions before passing new laws, even if that slows the process. Willie Sullivan, Senior Director of ERS Scotland, said: 'What this polling shows is people in Scotland firmly reject the uncompromising 'strong man' politics we've seen on the rise globally and want leaders to make decisions in a considered way that builds consensus. 'There are also some serious warnings about how people feel about the future, with feelings of anxiety, exhaustion, anger and disconnection a prevalent feature. Addressing this is key to rebuilding faith in political institutions. 'The post-2014 landscape in Scotland opened up new debates — and new divisions. There is now clearly a mood for a new chapter where we look to fashion a democracy that is robust, responsive and builds on our common interests. 'This also means we need to bring power closer to our communities. The polling shows a trend towards people being more trusting of political institutions that are more local to them, so a big part of what comes next must be ensuring decisions are made closer to the people they affect.' Read more: At Wednesday's summit, nearly all of Scotland's political leaders — including the First Minister and the leader of the Scottish Labour Party — backed a joint mission statement acknowledging that many people feel 'unheard and disempowered' and 'distant from politics or failed by society". Party leaders also committed to 'working together to ensure that our democratic structures evolve to meet our democratic ideals and are both trusted and robust". Flags outside the ParliamentSaturday's ERS conference will explore Scotland's 'new era in public life,' and how the country can move forward from the 'aftermath and consequences of two major constitutional events: the Scottish independence referendum and Brexit". The day will feature a number of high-profile political figures, including former Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford. Discussions will focus on encouraging a 'culture of debate and consensus building' and ensuring that local democracy becomes more responsive to the needs of communities.
