Latest news with #WilmingtonTrustInvestmentAdvisors
CNBC
16-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Escalation between Israel & Iran adds fuel to inflation narrative, says Innovator ETFs' Urbanowicz
Tony Roth, Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors CIO, and Tim Urbanowicz, Innovator ETFs chief investment strategist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why are stocks climbing when a recession looks more likely? Here's one possible reason.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that President Donald Trump was making more progress toward trade deals and a new tax bill, helping take some of the edge off Wall Street as a chaotic April draws to a close. Optimism around potential deals, tax cuts and deregulation helped the S&P 500 index SPX cement its longest string of gains since November. My eldest son refused to share his father's $500K inheritance with his siblings. Should I cut him off? 'I'm very cynical': My stepmother, 85, makes bizarre requests for money from my father's $10M trust. Should I be concerned? 'She's kept him afloat': I'm 78 and leaving my daughter, 41, my life savings, but her partner is a mooch. How can I protect her? Stock market's post-GDP whiplash shows it's 'foolish' to expect anything but volatility My boyfriend owns a house and earns more than me, but I refuse to marry him without a prenup. Is that wise? Yet Trump's extra tariffs unveiled on April 2, followed by a partial pause on April 8, have rattled global trade partners and added to an already sour mood among U.S. households and businesses. It also unleashed carnage in stocks and raised fears that the U.S. economy could tip into a recession — even if some trade deals were being struck during Trump's 90-day pause. 'We moved to an expectation of a recession as a baseline on April 9,' said Luke Tilley, chief economist and head of asset allocation and quantitative services at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors. His firm's biggest concerns have been that even if the newly imposed tariffs were removed, or dramatically reduced, baseline tariffs on U.S. imports would still be extremely high versus recent decades. With that backdrop, the Wilmington Trust team puts the odds of a recession at about 60% over the next 12 months, and expects a short and mild downturn, while others have put the likelihood of a recession much higher. Read: Another juicy S&P 500 target goes by the wayside as this 6,700 call is thrown into trash So, why have stocks been rising? Aside from talk of Trump looking to pivot to more 'pro-growth policies,' there's a view that some of the damage in stocks in a mild-recession scenario has been realized already. Tilley pointed out that the S&P 500 fell by as much as about 20% on a median basis during recessions in roughly the past 80 years. On a monthly basis, the peak-to-trough declines were less dramatic. The S&P 500 ended 18.9% lower on April 8 from its Feb. 19 record finish, based on a closing low of 4,982.77, according to Dow Jones Market Data. When including April 7, it fell 21.3% on an intraday basis. Yet perhaps more important, stocks have been able to turn around pretty quickly — with a median trough-to-peak recovery pegged at around 11 months, according to Tilley. 'I think a lot of people are looking at this,' Tilley said, adding that even with the risks of a recession rising, more people appear to be willing to look through shorter-term volatility in stocks. The S&P 500 on Tuesday shed 7.3% over Trump's first 100 days in office, the worst such stretch since the start of Richard Nixon's second term in 1973, according to Dow Jones Market Data. See: Trump's first 100 days in office are worst for stock market in half a century While that could mean the worst damage for stocks might be done, Tilley also said it's hard to see American consumers handling even baseline tariff increases very well. Treasury Secretary Bessent in March warned investors of a need to 'detox' from pandemic stimulus after two straight years of 20%-plus gains in the stock market. Still, the big equity drawdown of 2025 stems largely from uncertainty created by policies from the Oval Office. And another way to look at the possible direction of the stock market would be through estimates around price-to-earnings multiples. The ratio reached 22x for the S&P 500 at the end of last year, based partially on expectations for 'pro-growth' Trump policies. But they dipped below 20x after China's DeepSeek raised concerns about potentially cheaper ways to harness artificial intelligence and then on Trump's tariffs. 'It's hard to justify markets going back to a 22x multiple in the near termgiven the current backdrop of weakening economic and earningstrends and heightened uncertainty,' said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, in a Tuesday client note. The Dow DJIA gained 300 points Tuesday, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP rose 0.6%, according to FactSet. Why the stock market's about to hit a wall, according to this strategist 'I survived a head-on car wreck': I'm on Medicaid, but inheriting $290K. How do I protect it from the 5-year look-back rule? What a plunge in shipping traffic from China says about tariffs, stocks and the economy 'I'm literally afraid to look at my balance': I have $300K in a 2025 target-date fund. Is there a chance it will recover? How high-yield bond funds like these can lower your investment risk Sign in to access your portfolio
Bloomberg
22-04-2025
- Automotive
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily: Tesla's Miss Portends Tariff Pain
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: Tesla Inc. backed away from an earlier view for 2025 sales growth and pledged to revisit its outlook next quarter, a sign that tariffs, an aging vehicle lineup and the backlash against Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk are having an impact on the electric-vehicle maker. The company on Tuesday reported adjusted earnings of 27 cents per share for the first quarter, below the average analyst estimate. Tesla omitted an earlier prediction that sales would return to growth for the full year, saying instead that it's 'making prudent investments that will set up' the vehicle business for growth. That will depend on factors including production increases and the 'broader macroeconomic environment.' 'It is difficult to measure the impacts of shifting global trade policy on the automotive and energy supply chains, our cost structure and demand for durable goods and related services,' Tesla said. The dimmer outlook for the year follows a tough 2024, when the carmaker missed its annual sales growth target for the first time in more than a decade. It also fell short of analysts' expectations for first-quarter vehicle sales, which were released earlier this month. President Donald Trump's tariffs are compounding Tesla's challenges, and threaten to upend automotive supply chains globally and drive up costs across the industry. While Tesla is expected to be relatively less affected than many carmakers due to its large plants in California and Texas, its vehicles nevertheless contain some non-US components, and the company has warned of a potential impact. Today's show features: Tony Roth, Chief Investment Officer of Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors Julie Johnson, Bloomberg News, Senior Aerospace Reporter Ross Gerber, President and CEO Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management
