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The National
3 days ago
- General
- The National
SNP return to Hamilton for a by-election fraught with symbolism
The late Christina McKelvie's winning margin over the Labour candidate in the seat was 12.6% at the 2021 election, which sounds healthy enough – but that was achieved in the context of a record-breaking national landslide for the SNP, when Scottish Labour were trailing by more than 26 points across the country. To win Thursday's by-election, Labour wouldn't need to be anywhere close to a Scotland-wide lead over the SNP. Trimming the SNP's national lead to 13 points would, on a uniform swing, be enough to push Labour ahead in the constituency. Consequently, this is a by-election that would have been unwinnable for the SNP during most of 2024. And as a reminder, the constituency overlaps with the Westminster seat of Hamilton and Clyde Valley, which was easily captured by Labour at last July's General Election by a 22-point margin. READ MORE: Scottish Labour by-election candidate flounders after dodging question 11 times By March of this year, when it became clear the by-election would be taking place, the SNP had re-established themselves and held an 11-point Scotland-wide lead on the Holyrood constituency ballot in a poll conducted by Survation – but even that was a small enough gap to leave Labour as slight favourites to gain Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. Since then, there has been a poll showing the SNP with a huge 21-point national lead, which raised hopes that the by-election was taking place at a favourable time, and that the SNP might come away with a comfortable victory. But the most recent poll at the weekend from Norstat had the national lead at 14 points, which is consistent with only a razor-thin SNP advantage over Labour in Hamilton. History and symbolism are the other reasons why the SNP might have preferred this contest to be taking place somewhere else. Hamilton was the scene of their greatest-ever by-election success in 1967, when Winnie Ewing stunned Labour by winning on a mammoth 38% swing. The historical importance of that triumph can be explained very simply: prior to 1967, the SNP had never had any parliamentary representation (apart from for a few short weeks in 1945), but since then they have never been without parliamentary representation. And yet they've learned the hard way that returning to the scene of their most famous win has its dangers. In 1978, another Hamilton by-election came up, and the SNP put forward Margo MacDonald as a big-name candidate, in the hope and expectation that she would repeat Ewing's feat. Instead, there was a swing against the SNP, allowing Labour's George Robertson to romp home decisively. The symbolic turning of the tide in the very place where it had all started for the SNP helped to generate considerable momentum for Labour, and contributed to the SNP's massive setback in the 1979 General Election. If a third dramatic upset in a Hamilton by-election is reported by the media on Friday, that will be bad news for the SNP because by definition it will mean they have lost. And despite the arithmetic firmly suggesting Labour should be in the hunt on Thursday, most of the chatter from the ground suggests that if the SNP face any real threat, it comes from Reform UK. A win for Farage's Unionist ultras would undoubtedly qualify as a by-election spectacular on a par with Hamilton 1967, and would invite comparisons that the independence movement might prefer to avoid. However, the latest polling suggests that Reform are still well behind the SNP nationally, which means that the Nationalists ought to be able to fend off the challenge – especially as there doesn't seem a reason to believe that Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse is unusually favourable terrain for Reform. READ MORE: Nigel Farage splashes 'unimaginable cash' on private jet jaunt to Scotland There was no real sign of that at the General Election last year, when Reform took 8% of the vote in Hamilton and Clyde Valley – only a smidgeon better than their Scotland-wide showing of 7%. Constituency-level estimates from the 2016 EU referendum also suggest that the local vote for Leave may actually have been a tad lower than the Scotland-wide figure of 38% – and it's known there is still a strong correlation between support for Brexit and support for Reform. So despite the jitters, most of the indicators suggest the SNP are the likely winners on Thursday. But parliamentary by-elections are strange bubble environments in which voters often behave in a way they normally wouldn't. The only safe assumption is that almost anything is possible.
The National
3 days ago
- Politics
- The National
SNP returns to Hamilton for a by-election fraught with symbolism
The late Christina McKelvie's winning margin over the Labour candidate in the seat was 12.6% at the 2021 election, which sounds healthy enough – but that was achieved in the context of a record-breaking national landslide for the SNP, when Scottish Labour were trailing by more than 26 points across the country. To win Thursday's by-election, Labour wouldn't need to be anywhere close to a Scotland-wide lead over the SNP. Trimming the SNP's national lead to 13 points would, on a uniform swing, be enough to push Labour ahead in the constituency. Consequently, this is a by-election that would have been unwinnable for the SNP during most of 2024. And as a reminder, the constituency overlaps with the Westminster seat of Hamilton and Clyde Valley, which was easily captured by Labour at last July's General Election by a 22-point margin. READ MORE: Scottish Labour by-election candidate flounders after dodging question 11 times By March of this year, when it became clear the by-election would be taking place, the SNP had re-established themselves and held an 11-point Scotland-wide lead on the Holyrood constituency ballot in a poll conducted by Survation – but even that was a small enough gap to leave Labour as slight favourites to gain Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. Since then, there has been a poll showing the SNP with a huge 21-point national lead, which raised hopes that the by-election was taking place at a favourable time, and that the SNP might come away with a comfortable victory. But the most recent poll at the weekend from Norstat had the national lead at 14 points, which is consistent with only a razor-thin SNP advantage over Labour in Hamilton. History and symbolism are the other reasons why the SNP might have preferred this contest to be taking place somewhere else. Hamilton was the scene of their greatest-ever by-election success in 1967, when Winnie Ewing stunned Labour by winning on a mammoth 38% swing. The historical importance of that triumph can be explained very simply: prior to 1967, the SNP had never had any parliamentary representation (apart from for a few short weeks in 1945), but since then they have never been without parliamentary representation. And yet they've learned the hard way that returning to the scene of their most famous win has its dangers. In 1978, another Hamilton by-election came up, and the SNP put forward Margo MacDonald as a big-name candidate, in the hope and expectation that she would repeat Ewing's feat. Instead, there was a swing against the SNP, allowing Labour's George Robertson to romp home decisively. The symbolic turning of the tide in the very place where it had all started for the SNP helped to generate considerable momentum for Labour, and contributed to the SNP's massive setback in the 1979 General Election. If a third dramatic upset in a Hamilton by-election is reported by the media on Friday, that will be bad news for the SNP because by definition it will mean they have lost. And despite the arithmetic firmly suggesting Labour should be in the hunt on Thursday, most of the chatter from the ground suggests that if the SNP face any real threat, it comes from Reform UK. A win for Farage's Unionist ultras would undoubtedly qualify as a by-election spectacular on a par with Hamilton 1967, and would invite comparisons that the independence movement might prefer to avoid. However, the latest polling suggests that Reform are still well behind the SNP nationally, which means that the Nationalists ought to be able to fend off the challenge – especially as there doesn't seem a reason to believe that Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse is unusually favourable terrain for Reform. READ MORE: Nigel Farage splashes 'unimaginable cash' on private jet jaunt to Scotland There was no real sign of that at the General Election last year, when Reform took 8% of the vote in Hamilton and Clyde Valley – only a smidgeon better than their Scotland-wide showing of 7%. Constituency-level estimates from the 2016 EU referendum also suggest that the local vote for Leave may actually have been a tad lower than the Scotland-wide figure of 38% – and it's known there is still a strong correlation between support for Brexit and support for Reform. So despite the jitters, most of the indicators suggest the SNP are the likely winners on Thursday. But parliamentary by-elections are strange bubble environments in which voters often behave in a way they normally wouldn't. The only safe assumption is that almost anything is possible.
Daily Record
3 days ago
- Politics
- Daily Record
Alba Party urges independence supporters to 'max the Yes vote' at Hamilton and Larkhall by-election
EXCLUSIVE: Kenny MacAskill compared this week's Hamilton by-election with the historic vote in 1967 that saw Winnie Ewing triumph. Alba has called for independence supporters to "max the Yes vote" at a crunch by-election this week. Kenny MacAskill, the party leader, stopped short of endorsing the SNP candidate in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse constituency - but insisted the "cause of independence transcends everything". Alba have not entered the race in South Lanarkshire and are instead focused on rebuilding the party after a bruising leadership contest caused by the sudden death of Alex Salmond last year. MacAskill, a former SNP justice secretary, helped co-found the breakaway party with Salmond in 2021. He was named the new leader in March after winning a two-horse race with Ash Regan, Alba's sole MSP. The veteran Nationalist compared this week's by-election in Hamilton with the historic victory of Winnie Ewing in 1967. MacAskill said: "Winnie Ewing transformed Scottish politics and galvanised the independence movement with her stunning victory in Hamilton, 57 years ago. "She did so by relentlessly pushing the cause of Scottish independence - and highlighting the perversity of a country on the point of unparalleled wealth through the discovery of North Sea oil having so many of its people in poverty. "'Stop the World Scotland wants to get on' was her famous quip. It stands true today, but the oil wealth has been squandered, our refinery shut and the independence cause sidelined by the SNP. "Yet support for independence stands at levels never imagined in her time, and when Scotland stands on the verge of another energy bounty with renewables, but finds so many of its people facing fuel poverty. "Hamilton is again a political battleground. People are understandably angry with failing services, lack of housing and a falling standard of living. Sadly, some of the issues of concern rest not with London but a Parliament in Edinburgh - which Winnie was pivotal in securing. "Her vision, which appealed to so many then, was on a Scotland looking after the needs of its people in health, housing, jobs, crime and the quality of life. "The answer now, as then, is independence and the power to use our nation's wealth for our people. "The Alba Party stepped aside in this by-election out of respect for a well-loved local MSP. Our advice now, as it will be next year, is to max the Yes vote - but if that is unacceptable to many, given actions and incompetence, then at least not to vote for a Unionist party. "The cause of independence transcends everything. But the SNP have been warned that their failure to pursue our cause vigorously and their failings in office are damaging our cause."
Yahoo
5 days ago
- General
- Yahoo
Parties jockey for power in Hamilton by-election
The famous Hamilton Park Racecourse lies on the edge of town, just beyond the boundary of the Holyrood constituency where voters are set to elect a new MSP. Its presence is a useful reminder that few places in Scotland are as familiar with runners and riders, favourites and outsiders. The current political race in this former coal mining heartland of west central Scotland will decide who represents Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse in the Scottish Parliament following the death of the SNP's Christina McKelvie. It also has wider significance. It is the largest test of voter opinion in Scotland since the UK general election in which Labour heavily defeated the SNP. It is also the first real opportunity to see if Reform UK's recent successes in England can give them what they call a "tartan bounce". The outcome will help shape the political narrative in Scotland ahead of the national Holyrood election next May. Who can I vote for in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election? While Hamilton has its place in the history of horse racing, it has also earned iconic status when it comes to jockeying for political power. It was here that Winnie Ewing made her stunning by-election breakthrough for the SNP in 1967. It was this town that gave the former NATO secretary general Lord Robertson his start at Westminster in 1978. It was the people of Hamilton South who elected Labour's Tom McCabe as the first MSP in 1999. Driving around what is now the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse constituency, you would be forgiven for thinking the 2025 contest was a two horse race between the SNP and Reform UK. That's only because these are the parties dominating billboard advertising. This observation takes no account of the intensive door knocking, direct mailing and social media campaigning that's been going on for weeks. The SNP leader John Swinney has certainly acknowledged a third, red rosette-wearing horse in this race. My sense is that his comment came as something of a relief to Scottish Labour, who came second last time and expect to be regarded as the principal challenger to the SNP, who are defending the seat. Labour could certainly do with a win here. Having swept to power at Westminster last summer, Sir Keir Starmer's party quickly lost popularity with decisions like cutting winter fuel payments for pensioners. Even though changes to that policy have been promised, they will come too late for this by-election. The damage to Scottish Labour seems to have been done. The SNP tends to have a double digit lead over Labour in national opinion polls, with support for pro-UK parties heavily fragmented since the rise of Reform. That means that with around a third of the vote, the SNP can still be winners because Reform UK is principally drawing support away from the Conservatives and Labour. The arithmetic already takes into account a series of SNP controversies over independence strategy, gender self-identification, a police investigation into party finances, leadership changes and the collapse of a power-sharing deal with the Greens. These are challenging conditions for Scottish Labour to regain power at Holyrood after nearly two decades in the wilderness. That is the national picture suggested by a relatively limited number of opinion polls. This election is for a single constituency for which no formal polling has been published. In other words, there is plenty of room for surprise, especially if voters stay at home and turnout is low. At the start of this by-election campaign, a Labour source told me they would have a chance if the focus was on the SNP's record in government - on issues like long waits for NHS treatment. The same source said that if the vote became a referendum on Labour's first months in power at Westminster they would be in big trouble. Labour insiders now say they have identified enough potential support to win in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse if (and it could be a big if) they can mobilise voters to turn out. By contrast, SNP campaigners say they are "ahead" while acknowledging that the buzz around Reform UK following their successes in English local and mayoral elections throws in an "unknown" factor. This is a contest that nobody wanted and there appears to be little enthusiasm for the political choice on offer. A senior figure in the SNP told me they had found voters angry with Labour but far from impressed with the SNP. Many of the locals who stopped to chat with me in the centre of Hamilton were thoroughly fed up with politicians of all stripes. Elizabeth O'Donohue seemed to speak for many when she said: "I think they're all as bad as each other." Des McDonagh, who has voted SNP in the past and tried Labour in 2024, said he was now "totally dismayed with the options available". Nicole Copland accused politicians of making "false promises" to reduce the cost of living and said that when she votes "things don't really change". Rising household bills, access to healthcare, taxes on small businesses and revitalising town centres are all issues that have come up in this campaign. The public frustration with established parties is palpable and this is where Reform UK has spotted an opportunity. They have no track record of election, never mind government, at any level in Scotland. Their key figures are councillors who have defected from the Scottish Conservatives. The party is now targeting Labour voters with their UK leader Nigel Farage arguing for the threshold at which working people begin paying tax to be raised to £20,000. He wants tighter controls on immigration and the asylum system to help pay for this change. Across parties in Scotland, there is an acknowledgement that immigration is being raised by voters more than in the past. That is a policy area controlled by Westminster rather than Holyrood but that does not prevent discussion. In this campaign, Reform UK has claimed that the Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar would "prioritise the Pakistani community". That is the interpretation Reform has placed on a speech Mr Sarwar gave in 2022 at an event celebrating 75 years of Pakistan's independence - despite him not actually using those words in the clips they have chosen to promote on social media. They have been accused of racism by the SNP, Labour and the Greens, with the Liberal Democrats attacking Reform UK for "scummy tactics". The Conservatives under the leadership of Russell Findlay have largely kept out of the row. By doubling down on this claim Nigel Farage attracted fresh ire from Holyrood politicians, amplifying what appears to be an attempt to motivate voters for whom immigration is a concern. I saw examples of support for Reform in this constituency and also heard voters express disgust at the party's rhetoric. Reform's minimum ambition here is to finish third and push the Conservatives into fourth place - a potential outcome for which the Scottish Tories appear to be braced. Pundits, pollsters and political journalists will analyse the results carefully for insights into voter behaviour with less than a year until every Holyrood seat comes up for grabs. If the SNP hold on, that would compound the sense that although the party is far less popular than it has been, John Swinney could still be first minister after next year's Holyrood vote. If Labour take the seat, that would confound those who have come to believe that Anas Sarwar and his team will struggle to build sufficient support to be competitive in that contest. Anything other than an SNP or Labour win in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse would be a huge political upset. That doesn't mean that whatever happens in this by-election will be replicated in the national election. They are not the same thing and voting patterns vary across the country. In the Hamilton area, candidates and boundaries change over time but this corner of Scotland's post-industrial centre is a consistent source of political intrigue. That remains the case as voters prepare for their next moment in the political spotlight. There are a total of 10 candidates contesting this by-election on Thursday 5 June. They are: Collette Bradley - Scottish Socialist Party Andy Brady - Scottish Family Party Ross Lambie - Reform Katy Loudon - SNP Janice Mackay - UK Independence Party Ann McGuinness - Greens Aisha Mir - Liberal Democrat Richard Nelson - Conservative Davy Russell - Labour Marc Wilkinson - Independent
The National
28-05-2025
- Politics
- The National
Reform UK causing an upset in Ewing's former seat would be ironic
How ironic would it be if the upset of Winnie Ewing's famous 1967 by-election victory was repeated but with Reform now the surprise winners? At the 2021election they received only 58 votes. The SNP turnout will not be helped by Mr Swinney's recent suggestion that further moves towards independence will require somewhere near 74% support for the concept. READ MORE: I went on the SNP campaign trail in Hamilton. This is what I found out Mr Swinney visited Hamilton to announce yet again that the SNP are scrapping peak rail fares across Scotland from September. If he is to be believed, Hamilton commuters to Glasgow will save £760 a year, and those from Larkhall £910 a year. I imagine this will at most benefit a few hundred folk who have already been willing, and clearly financially able, to pay the peak fare, but at a cost to Scottish taxpayers in general (the rest of us). This will add to the list of 'free' stuff provided by the Scottish Government to a few but paid for by the many. Those who choose to vote Reform will no doubt be written off as right-wing, but unless both the SNP and Labour address the real problems and concerns keeping the majority of folk from getting a good night's sleep – the economy, immigration, jobs, housing, education, homelessness and the like – Reform are sadly here to stay and in next year's elections they will probably gain a foothold in the Scottish Parliament. Anne Laird Inverness I HATE to be negative about Swinney and the SNP, but there are so many open goals appearing. When are we going to take advantage of them? Swinney says that the by-election at Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse 'will be tight'. I would suggest that if the SNP were on their game they should win it at a canter and if they don't, all of the responsibility lies with his own party. Where is the positive vision of sovereignty in the EU? READ MORE: By-election hustings chaos as Labour candidate snub leads to walk out We were recently ignored again by Westminster when we asked for a tweak to the immigration system to ensure we have enough care and agricultural workers to aid our economy. Why did the SNP not get a media slot on TV over a week explaining why this is so necessary? This is just one example (DRS is another) where we have to be much more alive to the opportunities to get our message over. Ignore the Unionists. They can't tell us what's so great about the UK; all they can do is talk us down. We must get on the front foot before it's too late. Keith Taylor via email THE letter by Alan Hinnrichs on May 26 claims that only the 'historically illiterate' believe this Union is equal. But let's stop pretending that's the real problem. Scots aren't daft. We know we've been shafted. We see the double standards. We live with the consequences. The issue isn't ignorance – it's comfort. People aren't blind to injustice – they're tired. Ground down. Struggling to survive. And frankly, most don't have the energy to fight a system that's spent generations convincing them they should be grateful for scraps. That's not stupidity – that's what managed decline does to a people. READ MORE: Anas Sarwar gets Hamilton by-election candidate's name wrong Revolution – real revolution – demands sacrifice. It means giving things up. Risking jail. Losing jobs. Facing down riot shields, court summons, and headlines. In Ireland, people died for their freedom. In Ukraine, they bled for it. In Scotland, we host hotel conferences, share speeches, and then go home and scroll Twitter. If Scots truly believed independence was life or death – like the Irish did in 1916 or Ukrainians in 2014 – they'd be out risking everything. Jail. Beatings. Livelihoods. Even their lives. In other countries, people have been willing to die for national freedom. Some have even been willing to kill, not out of cruelty, but out of the raw conviction that living under subjugation was worse. But here? We argue over legal technicalities. We march now and then. We write angry letters. Then we settle back into routine. That's not revolution – that's ritual. The real reason this supposed 'bombshell' legal evidence hasn't changed anything is that no-one is willing to act on it. Not the leaders. Not the movement. Not the public. Not in the way history shows is required when a people truly want their freedom. READ MORE: The John Curtice verdict as Hamilton by-election looms This isn't about illiteracy – it's about fear. It's about comfort. It's about hoping someone else will make the first move so we don't have to. The truth is, we've already uncovered enough legal, economic, and historical evidence to dismantle the Union a dozen times over. But what good is truth without the will to act on it? None of it matters unless people are ready to disrupt, challenge power and, if necessary, break unjust laws. Nations aren't liberated by being right. They're liberated by being relentless. So no, Alan – the problem isn't that Scots are stupid. It's that no-one wants to pay the price of real change. And until that changes – until we stop being afraid to sacrifice – this movement will stay stuck making noise, instead of making history. James Murphy Bute
