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Will Small Businesses Like Ours Survive a Trade War?
Will Small Businesses Like Ours Survive a Trade War?

Newsweek

time30-04-2025

  • Business
  • Newsweek

Will Small Businesses Like Ours Survive a Trade War?

I'm living the American Dream, while it lasts. Twenty years ago in rural Wisconsin, we started Wonderstate Coffee with a commitment to making great coffee while supporting an environmentally sustainable and socially just network of coffee growers. Thanks to coffee fans in the Midwest and beyond, we have a successful and growing business with 85 employees, three cafe locations, and a local roasting and distribution operation. We were planning to invest in new packaging equipment to keep up with demand, but the recent tariff uncertainty has ground those plans to a halt. In addition to the financing costs, the chaos in the business environment prevents us from feeling confident in such investments. A Wonderstate Coffee worker operating a roaster. A Wonderstate Coffee worker operating a roaster. Photo Courtesy of Wonderstate Coffee The Trump administration's policies are no doubt causing anxiety for small businesses of all stripes, because we exist in a global economy. The business of coffee, which 70 percent of Americans drink every day, is a perfect example. Coffee beans can be grown only in a specific band of the globe and in specific climatic conditions. Beyond a small area in Hawaii and Puerto Rico, none of those places are in the United States. There's no way to bring coffee farming "back" to the U.S.; it was never here to begin with and never could be. A 10 percent tariff on coffee beans—and looming reciprocal tariffs—mean that even before we have to decide whether to pass the cost on to consumers, we need to find the money to bring our coffee into the country. Yes, small businesses are financing the tariffs. The price of coffee beans has already been rising due to crop losses from the extreme weather events of a changing climate, as well as geopolitical uncertainty. These factors put the squeeze on small businesses like mine as we compete with corporate giants. Now we're facing the worst crisis for our company since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Back then we did everything we could to keep our doors open to customers. Now we're scrambling to come up with the money to buy our inventory in the first place. Our commitments to paying farmers and our workers more than fairly, and to keeping prices affordable for customers remain as strong as ever; it's our motivation for doing this work. But I honestly don't know how small businesses will get through this if help doesn't come soon. Running a business like ours has never been easy. But in recent years, it's gotten much tougher. Corporate tax breaks have smoothed the path for big companies to continue investing in their growth, leveraging ever greater economies of scale to overwhelm smaller competitors. Meanwhile, health care and benefits costs keep skyrocketing, costs big companies can absorb but which can sink small businesses. At Wonderstate, we provide health coverage for our employees. How many more years of double-digit health care cost increases can we or other small businesses afford? Wonderstate Coffee's 100 percent solar-powered roasting facility in Viroqua, Wis. Wonderstate Coffee's 100 percent solar-powered roasting facility in Viroqua, Wis. Photo Courtesy of Wonderstate Coffee We're also committed to paying our farmers equitably for their work. In 2017, we announced the highest published minimum price guarantee to farmers, more than 80 percent above the Fair Trade conventional minimum price and over 50 percent higher than Fair Trade organic prices. This isn't charity; a healthy coffee economy increases the supply of beans, and ultimately keeps prices manageable for small businesses like ours and for customers who love and rely on their morning cup. This kind of long-term vision is undermined by drastic and unpredictable trade policies. Coffee is a global industry and the futures of farmers, employees, and consumers are extremely interconnected. A climate disaster in Colombia, or a civil crisis in the Democratic Republic of the Congo—both places where we buy beans from—can turn your $2 cup of coffee into a $4 one. The administration's tariffs will push prices even higher. Wonderstate Coffee's Jay Skrede loading green coffee into the roaster. Wonderstate Coffee's Jay Skrede loading green coffee into the roaster. Photo Courtesy of Wonderstate Coffee Small businesses need help now. Ending the tariff threat would be a good start, but the issues we face run deeper. American small businesses were hit hardest by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and now face another crisis. Wonderstate and Main Street USA need an infusion of serious systemic support to keep paying our employees what they need, and offering benefits that keep us all healthy and safe. Targeted tax relief would allow small businesses to reinvest in our companies, allowing us to grow, offer our products to consumers at reasonable prices, and be the engine of a healthier U.S. economy. Making health care more affordable for small businesses, or at least extending the Affordable Care Act's tax credits, would help us continue to offer our employees the benefits they need and which every American deserves. Running Wonderstate has been my lifelong dream come true. I'm proud of what we've built over the last two decades, and grateful to all the people who've supported us along the way. But the headwinds we're now facing threaten all that we've worked for. TJ Semanchin is the owner of Wisconsin-based Wonderstate Coffee and a member of the Main Street Alliance. The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.

Coffee drinkers brace for record prices as tariffs hit
Coffee drinkers brace for record prices as tariffs hit

Yahoo

time12-04-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Coffee drinkers brace for record prices as tariffs hit

Americans must brace for record high coffee prices as Donald Trump's tariffs combine with soaring costs to punish consumers, analysts have warned. Retail coffee prices in the US are expected to surge by nearly a third this year to an all-time high as businesses scramble to adjust to higher import charges and record high commodity prices, according to Carlos Mera, head of agricultural commodities at Rabobank. Mr Mera said: 'I think for a large packet of coffee, we might see retail price rises of around 30pc in the 2025 calendar year.' TJ Semanchin, owner of Wonderstate Coffee, a wholesale roasters which also owns a series of coffee shops in Wisconsin, said: 'We are in uncharted territory as an industry. The tariffs could not be coming at a worse moment in terms of impact on our prices.' Mr Trump shocked coffee importers by imposing sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs on America's trading partners on April 2, announcing massive charges on many key coffee exporters such as Vietnam, where he imposed a 46pc tariff. Although he scrapped these 'reciprocal' charges on Wednesday this week, most exporting nations are now subject to a 10pc blanket tariff, which will effectively add a 10th to the import price of coffee. This comes on top of an enormous surge in the commodity price of wholesale coffee beans. The price of Arabica beans, America's main coffee import, has soared to an unprecedented all-time record high of more than $4 (£3) per pound in February. It has since dropped to $3.56 but this is still up nearly 60pc year-on-year and is the highest price recorded for the beans at any point in history before 2025. This followed years of bad harvests in Brazil and Vietnam and major shipping disruptions due to Houthi rebel attacks on ships travelling through the Red Sea. Mr Semanchin said: 'Coffee has never been more expensive, ever. When you tack on a percentage tax on what is already a very high price, that's a multiplying effect. 'At $2 per pound, a 10pc tariff is 20 cents per pound. At a $4 market price, that tariff is now 40 cents.' Mr Semanchin already raised his prices by 15pc to 20pc in March to account for the higher commodity prices. Now, he thinks he will have to charge an extra $1 for every $15 bag of wholesale coffee that he sells. Mr Trump's about-turn on 'reciprocal' tariffs offers no relief for the US coffee sector, Mr Semanchin added. He said: 'Trump's announcement has almost no impact on the tariffs we were facing. The situation for importing for companies like ours remains dire.' Altogether, Mr Semanchin estimated tariffs will cost his business an additional $300,000 per year. America imports almost all of its coffee apart from around 1pc which is grown in Hawaii. This is because it does not have the appropriate climate to grow its own and means US coffee sellers have no option but to keep importing. Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB bank, said: 'These tariffs really do drive up the prices of goods and coffee is going to be one of them.' Thijs Geijer, food and agriculture economist at ING bank, said US consumer coffee prices are already soaring at nearly three times the average rate of inflation. US consumer price index (CPI) data shows coffee retailer prices in March were up by 6.7pc year-on-year, far higher than the overall 2.4pc CPI rate. Mr Geijer said: 'Within the shopping basket of an average consumer, coffee and also chocolate are really the ones that stand out in terms of year on year price increases.' Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more. Sign in to access your portfolio

Coffee drinkers brace for record prices as tariffs hit
Coffee drinkers brace for record prices as tariffs hit

Telegraph

time12-04-2025

  • Business
  • Telegraph

Coffee drinkers brace for record prices as tariffs hit

Americans must brace for record-high coffee prices as Donald Trump's tariffs combine with soaring costs to punish consumers, analysts have warned. Retail coffee prices in the US are expected to surge by nearly a third this year to an all-time high as businesses scramble to adjust to higher import charges and record high commodity prices, according to Carlos Mera, head of agricultural commodities at Rabobank. Mr Mera said: 'I think for a large packet of coffee, we might see retail price rises of around 30pc in the 2025 calendar year.' TJ Semanchin, owner of Wonderstate Coffee, a wholesale roasters which also owns a series of coffee shops in Wisconsin, said: 'We are in uncharted territory as an industry. The tariffs could not be coming at a worse moment in terms of impact on our prices.' Mr Trump shocked coffee importers by imposing sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs on America's trading partners on April 2, announcing massive charges on many key coffee exporters such as Vietnam, where he imposed a 46pc tariff. Although he scrapped these 'reciprocal' charges on Wednesday this week, most exporting nations are now subject to a 10pc blanket tariff, which will effectively add a 10th to the import price of coffee. This comes on top of an enormous surge in the commodity price of wholesale coffee beans. The price of Arabica beans, America's main coffee import, has soared to an unprecedented all-time record high of more than $4 (£3) per pound in February. It has since dropped to $3.56 but this is still up nearly 60pc year-on-year and is the highest price recorded for the beans at any point in history before 2025. This followed years of bad harvests in Brazil and Vietnam and major shipping disruptions due to Houthi rebel attacks on ships travelling through the Red Sea. Mr Semanchin said: 'Coffee has never been more expensive, ever. When you tack on a percentage tax on what is already a very high price, that's a multiplying effect. 'At $2 per pound, a 10pc tariff is 20 cents per pound. At a $4 market price, that tariff is now 40 cents.' Mr Semanchin already raised his prices by 15pc to 20pc in March to account for the higher commodity prices. Now, he thinks he will have to charge an extra $1 for every $15 bag of wholesale coffee that he sells. Mr Trump's about-turn on 'reciprocal' tariffs offers no relief for the US coffee sector, Mr Semanchin added. He said: 'Trump's announcement has almost no impact on the tariffs we were facing. The situation for importing for companies like ours remains dire.' Altogether, Mr Semanchin estimated tariffs will cost his business an additional $300,000 per year. America imports almost all of its coffee apart from around 1pc which is grown in Hawaii. This is because it does not have the appropriate climate to grow its own and means US coffee sellers have no option but to keep importing. Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB bank, said: 'These tariffs really do drive up the prices of goods and coffee is going to be one of them.' Thijs Geijer, food and agriculture economist at ING bank, said US consumer coffee prices are already soaring at nearly three times the average rate of inflation. US consumer price index (CPI) data shows coffee retailer prices in March were up by 6.7pc year-on-year, far higher than the overall 2.4pc CPI rate. Mr Geijer said: 'Within the shopping basket of an average consumer, coffee and also chocolate are really the ones that stand out in terms of year on year price increases.'

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