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Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500 falling after Israel airstrikes on Iran
All three of the US market indexes (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) start Friday's trading session in negative territory, falling after Israel coordinated airstrikes to target Iran's nuclear facilities and top military leadership. Brad Smith examines the stock and energy sector moves this morning after the opening bell. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. begin today's trading session riddled with conflict right now in the Middle East, as investors waking up this morning, firing up their trading engines. And as we're taking a look at some of the major averages, we're seeing where some of that slippage that was already being shown in the futures, now transpiring into the opening cross here. The S&P 500 right now down by about 8/10ths of a percent, Dow Jones Industrial Average. That's lower by about 1.1% to begin today's trading activity. Also, I want to pull this up on a chart view just so you can see how the S&P 500, we had actually gotten back to one of our highest levels since February here, highest closing close since February. And so taking a look at the year to date move here, we are still holding onto gains year to date for the S&P 500 of about 2%. But this is exactly where we wanted to show traders where we had been kind of leveling off here. And this was a key level for us to continue to track. Try to draw you a straight line here. I needed to get my yardstick out in order to make sure that we could fully get that carried out. But ultimately here, with the absence of a yardstick, there, you can see visually with your eyes just those levels and where we're coming in at. The Dow Jones Industrial Average still flat just barely to the downside, as of right now, year to date. And then the NASDAQ composite, which is calibrated here on our YFi interactive data, we've got that lower by about 9/10 of a percent to start off today's trading activity, year to date up 9/10ths of a percent. Want to take a look at some of the heat maps that we've got fired up for you here. The only, and this should come as no surprise, the only sector in the 11 S&P 500 sectors right now in positive territory, that is energy, as oil prices move higher. XLE, you're going to see that go with it as well. That's up 2%. 10 of 11 S&P 500 sectors in negative territory right now, dragged on the most by consumer discretionary names. That's down by about 1.2%. Additionally, I want to take a look at the NASDAQ 100 here, give you a quick look at some of those Mag 7s, as well as the mega cap tech stocks. And as of right now, you can see only a few areas of green peppered into this mix here. As of right now, the one outside leader that we're tracking is actually Diamondback Energy. And of course, this, synonymous with what we were just talking about with the sector activity and the bid that energy names are catching here, this morning in reaction to the oil price spikes here. Taking a look at Diamondback Energy, that's leading the pack. It's up by about 5.4%. However, pulling up the caboose right now, you've got Adobe, that's down 4 and a quarter percent, fresh off of earnings here. However, you still heard some of the bullish sentiment from our previous guest, Gill Area of DA Davidson here, and how he's evaluating that name. A few other names that we're tracking here out of the gate this morning, you've already got Marriott down right about 2.7% right now. And then a host of other names in the red, majority in the red here on the NASDAQ 100 as of right now.
Yahoo
08-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Market resistance, US dollar, bitcoin gains: Market Takeaways
US stocks (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) see upside gains to close out Thursday's trading session following President Trump's confirmation of a trade deal between the US and the United Kingdom. Yahoo Finance markets and data editor Jared Blikre monitors the day's top trading themes, including trends in the US dollar (DX=F, and bitcoin's (BTC-USD) recovery to back above $100,000. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here. US stocks climb, rallying on trade optimism as Trump says buy stocks now. Yahoo finances Jared Blickre joins us now with the trading day takeaways, Jared. Thank you. First up, uh guess what? Head and shoulders above resistance. What does this mean? Well, let me show you picture's worth a thousand words on the YFi interactive. That's why we have it here. This is the Nasdaq 100. S&P 500 looks similar, but I like the way this pattern is kind of just shaping up in the uh Nasdaq 100 here. This right here is an inverse head and shoulders, and we don't have the right shoulder just yet, and it might be a little bit smaller, could be a little bit bigger, but this is what I'm seeing right now. The key is we need to punch above the neckline, so that's going to be around 21,000 or so. What that tends to do is then you get another reaction, and eventually you go much higher, and it tends to be about the same distance as this high to this low right there. So that's called a measured move. So that's kind of what I'm looking for in the indices, but we're not there yet. Got to clear that 200 day moving average that's right there with the neckline. Here's the sector action for today. I already did this at the close. Just want to show you the four day how things are progressing here. Had a bit of a downdraft this week, but we're seeing industrials and tech leading. But let me show you from the bottom here. We have a clear example of cyclicals leading. These are the sectors that lead with the business cycle that tend to move the best, uh XLK is tech, XLI is industrials, XLY is consumer discretionary, and then this is the S&P 500 and those are outperforming, just underperforming slightly is materials. That's another cyclical sector. So this is kind of a risk-on environment, and uh it's something that I've been paying a lot of attention to. Again, we're not crossing the Rubicon just yet, but we are very, very close. Also, I hear you've been taking a hard look at the dollar again, Jared. What have you been seeing? Yes. All right. We got a dollar decision to make here because the dollar's also at a critical juncture. What I found really interesting today was that the dollar and yields were moving in the same direction. Now, before Trump took office and started with the tariff talk and all the tariff enactments, that was the case, but then things changed. They started going in opposite directions. Today, they started going in the same direction again, and I'm going to show you a chart of the US dollar index, and I'll start with the year to date, and you can see it's been pretty much from the upper left to the lower right, that is down 8%. That is a big amount for a currency to move, especially the reserve currency of the world in a very short amount of time. What I want to show you here is the three-year chart, because most currencies are mean reverting. That is they tend to go sideways, and when they go to a they travel too high or too low, they tend to go back in the other direction. So this is a three-year chart, and we can see that we came below this support line that we had uh met several times before, and we also recently had a venture above the resistance line that had met at least once, and this was kind of an oops there. That was a fake out, left a lot of people long the dollar, and then they got crushed to the downside. They had to reverse. Maybe we're seeing the same thing here. Maybe the dollar wants to go higher. And the reason I think that is it's almost become a consensus trade on Wall Street that the dollar is going to go is going to go lower. So that might not be the case. It could very well do that. But if we go higher, I am expecting to see, what is that, 108 again. And if we go lower, well, let me show you a 10-year chart. We could go a lot lower, and let me just put the max on there. You take a look at the zero, we could go all the way up to, let's say, 130 or so. So the dollar, if it breaks this level, we got some more support underneath, but I'd say 90 is probably within sight. So that would be a pretty big move for the US dollar. Speaking of currencies, crypto making moves. Yes. Yes, crypto is on the move. It broke out yesterday, and this was after the Fed announcement. Now, crypto doesn't always lead, but when it does, I pay attention, and it looks like crypto is kind of leading this new risk rally that we saw take place in the post Fed uh post Fed announcement here. This is a uh this is since the bottom. Let me just do a year to date. Actually, let me do an intraday, and then we'll plot some of these. So Bitcoin is up almost 6% today. Let me show you the year to date on this chart, and this is going to show you that we are marching towards these record highs. This was 107, 108,000, and right down here, remember I said we were going to go to the low 90s. Didn't quite reach that. Missed it by 2,000, but pretty close, and we just broke up recently here. What I'm also watching is Ethereum. Ethereum's up 20% today. This is a huge, huge breakout. Uh this is year to date. Let me just show you a one-year chart, and then you can see this line right here. That is a nice break to the upside, and what I like about crypto here is we're seeing a little bit more participation. Solana is up 11%. Ripple's up 8% as well. I was going to ask you what the other sort of tokens, coins should be on your radar. Yeah, let me pull up the year to date again on this, and I'm going to show you what I'm looking at uh because I think it's really favorable. Now, this is year to date, and you see a lot of red here. So this was a negative, but within the last month, that has changed, and let me just show you the equal weight so you can see. Bitcoin's somewhere in the middle around what, 30, 33, 34% in there, but a lot of tokens doing a lot better. Even Bitcoin cash up 56%, Solana up 53%. I got Monero in the mix there. So all of this together, all of this um bullish action that we're not just seeing in Bitcoin and Ethereum, but the other ones tells me that we probably have the making of another crypto rally at least to the existing highs that we have. 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Yahoo
16-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
What S&P 500's first 'death cross' in 3 years means for markets
On Monday, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) reached its first "death cross" — the 50-day moving average falling below the 200-day moving average — for the first time in three years. Stocks in Translation podcast host and Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre examines what the bearish signal has historically meant for investors. Catch more Stocks in Translation here, with new episodes every Tuesday and Thursday. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here. The S&P 500 printed its first death cross in three years on Monday. What is this trend? What does it mean for your returns? I'm Jared Blikre, host of Stocks in Translation. Let's get to a few definitions first. And I'm going to start with the moving average. We got to know that. It's very simple. It shows the average price over a set time, like 50 or 200 days, and it updates as new days come, come in. So basically, it's the last 200 days closing prices. Now we can move on to the actual death cross. This is when a short-term moving average, like the 50-day, falls below a longer term one, such as a 200 day. And I'll show an example later on, but I first want to run through some of the statistics here. This is what happens next after you get a death cross in the S&P 500 one day later, one week later, one month, one quarter and one year. And this is the median results going all the way back to 1961. And there were 32 instances, which is not nothing. So we do have a decent sample size here. And I also have the positive, the percent positive returns. So you'll see for instance, on the first day, one day after we might expect a slightly negative return on balance and then a 47% positivity rate. Now, because stocks go up most of the time, you actually need to see something over 70 to be bullish and you just need to be under 70 to be a little bit bearish. And so this definitely qualifies as a bit bearish. You can see one week out, we still have average or median returns that are positive. In fact, they're all, they're positive all the way going up to one year. Why would this be? Well, sometimes you get a very fast decline, like what we had in the pandemic. And by the time you get that signal, the market is just rocketing up and you've already had the bottom, whereas other times, like the global financial crisis, or even in 2022, the market will take its time going down. And so when you have that death cross, it's actually a good signal to get a little bit more bearish. Now, this is, these stats go back to 1961. I also have them going back to 1990 and they're a little bit less bad, but I think what we want to take away from this is that the death cross itself is not really a, is not really a great trading signal. You need some other confirmation or rejection. And I'm going to close here by just looking at an example in the S&P 500. We do have the native capability to show moving averages in the YFi interactive. And there you go. We did get that death cross yesterday. And I'm just going to show you the last six years, so you can see that 2022 example happens somewhere in there and we got a decent decline off of that. Whereas in 2020, we got it very close to the bottom. And so that might have actually been a buy signal. We can also see in Tesla, Tesla just printed a very similar chart, very similar pattern. Its death cross activated only yesterday. And individual stocks trade a little bit differently than the indices. They tend to move a little bit quicker. And so if I'm trying to take trade Tesla here, I'm looking for a nice break over that 200 day moving average that is sustained, whereas if I'm looking at the indices like the S&P 500, I want to see a break above, come back down and test it, and then gently rise from there. Tune into stocks in translation for more jargon busting deep dives. New episodes on Tuesdays and Thursdays on Yahoo Finance's website or wherever you find your podcasts. Sign in to access your portfolio
