Latest news with #YaelSelfin
Reuters
2 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
UK pay growth slows as jobless rate rises to highest since 2021
LONDON, June 10 (Reuters) - British pay growth slowed sharply in the three months to April and unemployment rose to its highest in nearly four years, official data showed on Tuesday, potentially easing the Bank of England's caution about how quickly to cut interest rates. Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, were 5.2% higher in the February-to-April period versus a year earlier, their weakest pace of growth since the third quarter of 2024 and down from a downwardly revised 5.5% in the three months to March. A Reuters poll of economists had mostly forecast regular wage growth of 5.3%. The unemployment rate, based on a survey that the ONS is overhauling and which many economists have doubts about, rose to 4.6% from 4.5% in the first quarter of 2025, following a rise in employers' social security contributions at the start of April. The BoE is trying to gauge whether inflation pressures in Britain's labour market are easing sufficiently for it to continue cutting interest rates. It is expected to keep rates on hold next week. Yael Selfin, chief economist at accountants KPMG, said Tuesday's figures suggest the rise in firms' labour costs would probably put a brake on wage growth. "The MPC is unlikely to vote for a cut next week, as it will likely require more evidence that wage growth is falling back to levels consistent with the inflation target," Selfin said. A 25 billion pound ($34 billion) increase in employers' social security contributions and a 6.7% hike in the minimum wage came into force in April. Domestic wage and price developments are likely to be more important for future reductions in borrowing costs than U.S. trade policy, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has said, although April's U.S. tariffs did help swing some policymakers' decision to vote for a cut at its last meeting in May. In the private sector alone - watched closely by the BoE - earnings excluding bonuses rose by 5.1% in the three months to the end of April, also the weakest pace since the third quarter of 2024 the Office for National Statistics said. Sterling weakened against the U.S. dollar immediately after the data was published and investors also priced in a higher chance that the BoE will cut rates twice more this year. Vacancies fell by 63,000 in the three months to May, their lowest level since the three months to April 2021. ($1 = 0.7396 pounds)
Yahoo
15-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
UK job vacancies drop as employment costs grow
Job vacancies fell to the lowest level in nearly four years, according to official figures, suggesting demand for workers is weakening as employment costs grow. The number of jobs on offer dropped to 781,000 in the first three months of the year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS), while people on payrolls also declined. Average UK pay continued to rise - up 5.9% - but increases in employer National Insurance Contributions as well as National Minimum Wage hikes which came into force this month are forecast to weigh on salaries. Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said: "The short-term impact of the rise in labour costs which came into effect in April, will likely put downward pressure on pay over the coming months." The ONS said the UK unemployment rate remained at 4.4%, roughly the same as the previous three months. The employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was 75.1%, still below Labour's target of 80% employment. The ONS said its jobs figures should be treated with caution because of low response rates to its employment survey, on which the figures are based. Wage growth is slightly ahead of the previous period and was lifted by the public sector, according to Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics which published the figures. More than a fifth of UK adults still not looking for work Who are the millions of Britons not working? Starmer says cost of sickness benefits 'devastating' Jobs fears as disability scheme owes businesses thousands
BBC News
15-04-2025
- Business
- BBC News
Pay continues to grow in UK but faces pressure
Average UK pay rose by 5.9%, official data suggests, while vacancies fell to their lowest since before Covid. Wage growth is slightly ahead of the previous period and was lifted by the public sector, according to Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics which published the some economists warned that salaries will come under pressure after increases to the amount of National Insurance employers pay came into force this month at the same time as rises to the National Minimum Wage. Meanwhile, the number of jobs on offer dropped to 781,000 in the first three months of the year, falling below pre-pandemic levels in 2020. Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said: "The short-term impact of the rise in labour costs which came into effect in April, will likely put downward pressure on pay over the coming months."
