Latest news with #YearTreasuryBondETF
Yahoo
02-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
BlackRock's ‘Widow Maker' ETF Is Suddenly in High Demand
With a nickname like 'widow maker,' you'd think investors would stay away. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which got its moniker because of its recent poor performance — took in $1.3 billion assets in the past week, according to CFRA Research. Since long-term Treasury bonds are more susceptible to the effects of interest rate changes as they mature, short or intermediate bonds are often more appealing. And for TLT, if investors bought the fund five years ago, they would have lost some 45% of their original assets, according to the Financial Times. But, it looks like long-term products are increasingly on the menu. 'TLT is often used by investors to buy the dip when they think [Fed interest] rates have peaked,' said Aniket Ullal, head of ETF Research & Analytics at CFRA. 'We may be seeing similar behavior here since inflation numbers have been fairly benign recently.' READ ALSO: Nasdaq Wants to Wrap This $11.5B Altcoin in an ETF and Vanguard's 2 New Muni ETFs Have an Advantage Over Mutual Funds The bond market had a small win last week as both 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields began trading just below 5%, the first time since May 20. And while President Donald Trump doesn't have the authority to lower interest rates, he's made his position well known, recently telling Fed Chair Jerome Powell he's making a 'mistake' by not lowering them. Plus, who could forget all that volatility? All this could be contributing to TLT's momentum. 'Investors in long-term Treasury bond ETFs like TLT will win if the US economy weakens significantly and investors believe the Fed will need to cut rates aggressively,' said Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi. However, he noted that TLT doesn't have the strongest track record, and taking on significant duration risk has not been rewarding for investors: Over the past five years, the fund has taken in roughly $50 billion in inflows, per VettaFi data. But, its performance is down nearly 50% in that same time. 'Timing this trade can be very difficult,' Ullal told Advisor Upside. This post first appeared on The Daily Upside. To receive exclusive news and analysis of the rapidly evolving ETF landscape, built for advisors and capital allocators, subscribe to our free ETF Upside newsletter. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
TLT Finds Buyers as 30-Year Yield Tests the Big 5% Level
The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury briefly surged to 5.15% last week, its highest level since late 2023. Though it has since retreated to around 4.95%, the long bond remains stubbornly close to the psychologically important 5% mark. This isn't the first time the 30-year has breached that level in 2025. In fact, it's happened multiple times for different reasons. Last week's jump came after the House passed President Donald Trump's sweeping tax cut package, stoking fears of ballooning budget deficits and a rising national debt. Back in April, it was concerns over Trump's trade war and speculation that foreign investors could pull back from U.S. government bonds that caused yields to jump. And in January, the bond market responded to expectations that Trump's economic agenda, centered around tax cuts and tariffs, would spur faster growth and inflation, while keeping the Fed sidelined following its short-lived rate-cutting stint in 2024. Whatever the reason, the Treasury market remains on edge. The 5.15% high from last week was just shy of the 5.18% peak seen in October 2023, when the Fed's aggressive rate hiking campaign drove long-term yields to cycle highs in response to the inflation surge of 2021-2022. While those acute inflation fears have faded somewhat, they haven't disappeared. And many investors are coming to terms with the idea that inflation may settle at a structurally higher level than in the pre-Covid era, driven by long-term trends like tighter labor markets, reduced immigration and deglobalization. These factors, combined with increased Treasury issuance tied to rising deficits, are putting upward pressure on interest rates, particularly at the long end of the curve. Despite these pressures, many investors are sticking with, and in some cases—doubling down on—long-term Treasurys. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) saw more than $2 billion of inflows last week. The $48.8 billion fund has long been a go-to vehicle for investors seeking exposure to the far end of the Treasury curve. With an effective duration of 15.5 years, TLT is highly sensitive to rate moves, making it attractive for those expecting yields to eventually fall. It's also commonly used as a portfolio hedge. If the economy stumbles or a risk-off environment emerges, long-term Treasurys often rally. That was the classic dynamic, anyway. In recent years, though, that bond-stock inverse correlation has weakened. For example, during the April 2025 selloff—when the S&P 500 tumbled more than 11% between March 31 and April 8—TLT also fell by 2.6%, failing to provide its usual ballast. So far this year, the S&P 500 is down 0.7%, while TLT is off 1.4%. Even so, investors aren't giving up on long bonds. In a world of elevated interest rates and greater rate volatility, funds like TLT remain useful for both directional bets and risk management. For those seeking even more rate sensitivity, there's the PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (ZROZ), which holds Treasury STRIPS and has a duration of 27.6 years. Meanwhile, the US Treasury 30 Year Bond ETF (UTHY) offers more targeted exposure. Unlike TLT, which holds a range of bonds with maturities between 20 and 30 years, UTHY focuses exclusively on the most recently issued 30-year Treasury bond. Its duration is around 15.5 years, similar to TLT. As long as markets remain jittery over debt and inflation, expect long bond ETFs to stay in the | © Copyright 2025 All rights reserved Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
23-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Fixed-Income ETF Assets to Hit $6T by 2030: BlackRock
Fixed-income ETFs are on track to reach $6 trillion in assets under management (AUM) by 2030, if not sooner, according to BlackRock's annual outlook published Wednesday. The forecast comes after global bond exchange-traded fund assets increased 20% in 2024—the highest organic asset growth of any other asset class or investment vehicle—pushing AUM to $2.6 trillion. Relative to their equity counterparts, fixed-income ETFs are in their early stages with significant opportunity for growth: Equity ETFs represent 10% of its respective underlying market while fixed-income ETFs represent just 2%. Interest in these ETFs isn't showing signs of slowing. Through March 2025, global bond ETF flows reached $131.6 billion, which is more than double the average first-quarter inflows over the last decade. This growth is in part due to innovation offering investors more choice. In 2024, the industry launched 420 bond ETFs—a one-third increase from the year before—and more than 75 bond ETFs have already been issued in 2025. 'Fixed-income ETFs have allowed investors to reposition portfolios given the recent market volatility,' Karen Veraa-Perry, head of iShares U.S. fixed income strategy at BlackRock, told She added that the firm has seen an uptick in inquiries from a range of clients looking to use ETFs to access collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) and boost yield in their portfolios. The report also notes a significant increase in liquidity and trading volumes for these ETFs: The average daily volumes of fixed-income ETFs have more than doubled over the last five years. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) have seen record trading volumes, Veraa-Perry said. Bond ETFs are 'particularly powerful' during times of market volatility, such as during the onset of President Donald Trump's tariff announcements earlier this year, and tend to experience record volumes while maintaining market quality, according to the report's authors. Yields are also higher than they have been in years, with roughly 80% of global fixed-income assets now yielding more than 4%. Money market ETFs and short-term government bond ETFs, such as the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV), have also been effective tools for reducing portfolio volatility and have seen strong inflows year to date, Veraa-Perry said. Permalink | © Copyright 2025 All rights reserved Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
22-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Reasserts Itself as Stocks, Bonds Fall, Gold Hits Record High
By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen." Vladimir Ilyich Lenin Few quotes better capture the current turbulence in global markets. For decades, the classic portfolio of 60% equities and 40% bonds was considered the cornerstone of balanced investing. This allocation typically offered protection in downturns through bonds, while equities drove returns in times of economic growth. We saw this play out during crises like 2008 and 2020, when iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) surged amid global uncertainty. Today, that dynamic has been upended. With persistent geopolitical tension ignited by President Donald Trump's tariffs, stubborn inflation and slowing growth, Treasury yields have climbed and bond prices fallen. TLT is now down some 50% from its 2020 highs. The equity side of the portfolio isn't faring much better. U.S. stocks are underperforming, caught in what some are calling a broader "Sell America" trade. Even the dollar, which typically strengthens in risk-off environments, is weakening as capital flows shift toward the yen and euro. In this new regime, alternative assets are taking center stage. Gold has surged to $3,500 an ounce for the first time, cementing its role as a haven. To underscore its meteoric rise: the precious metal has added about $6 trillion in market cap this year, triple the market cap of bitcoin (BTC) at its all-time high. Gold ETF inflows, measured over a 90-day rolling period, are approaching 9 million ounces, the biggest surge since 2022 and among the largest in the past decade. Bitcoin, while lagging behind gold, is also reasserting itself. It has reached new highs in dominance within the crypto market and is beginning to diverge from U.S. tech stocks. It's increasingly behaving like an uncorrelated asset, valuable in a diversified portfolio. This Friday, $6.7 billion in bitcoin options are set to expire, including $330 million in call options at the $100,000 strike price, setting the stage for a potentially volatile final week of April. Stay alert! Crypto: April 22: The Lyora upgrade goes live on the Injective (INJ) mainnet. April 25, 1 p.m.: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Crypto Task Force Roundtable on "Key Considerations for Crypto Custody". April 28: Enjin Relaychain increases active validator slots to 25 from 15, to enhance decentralization. April 29, 1:05 a.m.: BNB Chain (BNB) — BSC mainnet hardfork. April 30, 9:30 a.m.: ProShares expects its XRP ETF, offering exposure through futures and swap agreements, to begin trading on NYSE Arca. April 30, 10:03 a.m.: Gnosis Chain (GNO), an Ethereum sister chain, will activate the Pectra hard fork on its mainnet at slot 21,405,696, epoch 1,337,856. Macro Day 2 of 6: World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring meetings in Washington. April 22, 8:30 p.m.: Statistics Canada releases March producer price inflation data. PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4% PPI YoY Prev. 4.9% April 22, 6 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will deliver a speech titled "Transmission of Monetary Policy." April 23, 8 a.m.: Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases retail sales data. Retail Sales MoM Prev. 0.6% Retail Sales YoY Prev. 2.7% April 23, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (flash) U.S. April purchasing managers' index (PMI) data. Composite PMI Prev. 53.5 Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.4 vs. Prev. 50.2 Services PMI Est. 52.8 vs. Prev. 54.4 Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) April 22: Tesla (TSLA), post-market April 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market May 1: Block (XYZ), post-market Governance votes & calls Aave DAO is discussing partnering with to create a custom Aave market on EVM layer 2 to 'facilitate on-chain credit for everyday payments through the Cash credit card program.' April 23, 9 p.m.: Manta Network to host a townhall meeting with its founders. April 24, 8 a.m.: Alchemy Pay to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session on its 2025 roadmap. April 30, 12 p.m.: Helium to host a community call meeting. Unlocks April 30: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $21.83 million. May 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.28% of its circulating supply worth $170.93 million. May 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.67% of its circulating supply worth $10.46 million. May 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.73% of its circulating supply worth $11.92 million. May 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.56% of its circulating supply worth $13 million. May 9: Movement (MOVA) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $11.23 million. Token Launches April 22: Hyperlane to airdrop its HYPER tokens. April 22: BNB to be listed on Kraken. April 23: Zora to airdrop its ZORA tokens. April 24: Initia (INIT) to be listed on Binance, CoinW, WEEX, KuCoin, MEXC, and others. CoinDesk's Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes. Day 1 of 3: Money20/20 Asia (Bangkok) April 23: Crypto Horizons 2025 (Dubai) April 23-24: Blockchain Forum 2025 (Moscow) April 24: Bitwise's Investor Day for Bitcoin Standard Corporations (New York) April 26: Crypto Vision Conference 2025 (Manilla) April 26-27: Harvard Blockchain in Action Conference (Cambridge, Mass.) April 27: N Crypto Conference 2025 (Kyiv) April 27-30: Web Summit Rio 2025 April 28-29: Blockchain Disrupt 2025 (Dubai) April 28-29: Staking Summit Dubai April 29: El Salvador Digital Assets Summit 2025 (San Salvador) April 29: IFGS 2025 (London) By Shaurya Malwa Pope Francis' death on Easter Monday triggered significant activity in crypto markets and prediction platforms as traders aimed to capitalize on the news. LUCE, a Solana-based memecoin tied to the Vatican's Holy Year 2025 mascot, surged 45% in value, reaching $0.013, according to CoinGecko data. Daily trading volume in the token skyrocketed to $60.27 million from $5 million the previous day, despite the price being down 95% from its November peak of 30 cents. Although unaffiliated with the Vatican, LUCE has attracted around 44,800 holders. Meanwhile, a Polymarket bet on who will be the next pope has attracted over $3.5 million in volumes since going live on Dec. 31, with over 18 candidates in the mix. As of Tuesday morning, Pietro Parolin leads odds at 37%, followed by Luis Antonio Tagle at 23% and Matteo Zuppi at 11%. HBAR, XLM and TRX have seen the most growth in perpetual futures open interest among major tokens in the past 24 hours. However, only TRX has seen a positive cumulative volume delta, implying an influx of new money predominantly on the bullish side. BTC's open interest in has increased to 695K BTC, the most since March 25. ETH's open interest held shy of the recent record above 11.9 million ETH. Perpetual funding rates for most major tokens remain marginally positive in a sign of cautiously bullish sentiment. On Deribit, BTC's short and near-dated calls are now trading at par or a slight premium to puts, another sign of renewed bullishness. ETH puts, however, continue to trade at a premium to calls. Block options flows have been muted on Paradigm, with calendar spreads and April put spreads lifted in BTC and ETH. BTC is up 1.45% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $88,539.04 (24hrs: +1.16%) ETH is up 3.43% at $1,628.60 (24hrs: -0.84%) CoinDesk 20 is up 1.49% at 2,544.64 (24hrs: -0.3%) Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 2.98% BTC funding rate is at -0.0058% (-2.1353% annualized) on Binance DXY is up 0.1% at 98.38 Gold is up 4.28% at $3,456.97/oz Silver is up 0.5% at $32.57/oz Nikkei 225 closed -0.17% at 34,220.60 Hang Seng closed +0.78% at 21,562.32 FTSE is up 0.49% at 8,315.81 Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.28% at 4,922.48 DJIA closed on Monday -2.48% at 38,170.41 S&P 500 closed -2.36% at 5,158.20 Nasdaq closed -2.55% at 15,870.90 S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.76% at 24,008.86 S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 2,384.47 U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.42% E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.98% at 5,235.75 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.02% at 18,105.00 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.87% at 38,660.00 BTC Dominance: 64.39% (-0.09%) Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01839 (1.88%) Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 840 EH/s Hashprice (spot): $45.0 PH/s Total Fees: 6.56BTC / $572,645 CME Futures Open Interest: 139,765 BTC BTC priced in gold: 25.5 oz BTC vs gold market cap: 7.22% If you feel gold's rally is overstretched or overdone, think again. The ratio between gold's spot price and its 200-day simple moving average, currently 1.3, is well below highs seen in 2011-2012 when the yellow metal rose to its then-record price of $2,000. The ratio went as high as 5.80 in the 1980. Bitcoin tends to follow gold with a lag of couple of months. Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $317.76 +0.18%), up 2.02% at $324.19 in pre-market Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $175 (-0.02%), up 1% at $176.75 Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$15.38 (+0.13%) MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.29 (-2.92%), up 2.36% at $12.59 Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $6.29 (-2.63%), up 2.07% at $6.42 Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $6.39 (-3.62%) CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.47 (-0.53%), up 2.68% at $7.67 CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $11.74 (-2.49%) Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $29.83 (-8.17%) Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $36.59 (+0.03%), unchanged in pre-market Spot BTC ETFs: Daily net flow: $381.3 million Cumulative net flows: $35.86 billion Total BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million Spot ETH ETFs Daily net flow: -$25.4 million Cumulative net flows: $2.24 billion Total ETH holdings ~ 3.30 million Source: Farside Investors The chart shows the price of eggs in the U.S. has increased by over 200% since 2024, outperforming BTC's 100% surge. Gold and the S&P 500 have gained 46% and 21%, respectively, over the same period. In other words, asset price growth has failed to compensate holders for the inflation on Main Street. Bitcoin, Euro Options Signal Bullishness Against Dollar Amid Equity and Bond Market Downturns (CoinDesk): Preference for BTC and euro call options over dollar exposure suggests investors are rotating out of U.S. assets and into bitcoin, the euro and gold. Dow Headed for Worst April Since 1932 as Investors Send 'No Confidence' Signal (The Wall Street Journal): Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, said the Trump administration's policies have made the U.S. economy increasingly unstable and difficult to gauge, deterring investment. Bitcoin Runs Into Resistance Cluster Above $88K. What Next? (CoinDesk): Behavioral aspects of trading could influence whether bitcoin rallies further or faces a new downturn from the resistance zone. Bearish Dollar Bets Move Toward Levels That Raise Risk of Recoil (Bloomberg): Despite widespread bets against the dollar, steady demand for Treasuries and technical signals suggest a rebound is likely, though gains may be limited or short-lived if negative news continues. Japanese Investors Sold $20B of Foreign Debt as Trump Tariffs Shook Markets (Financial Times): Much of Japan's selling likely involves U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by the U.S. government, said Tomoaki Shishido, senior rates strategist at Nomura. Bitcoin, Stablecoins Command Over 70% of Crypto Market as BTC Pushes Higher (CoinDesk): Bitcoin dominance rose to 64.6%, the highest since January 2021, as ether slumped and the ETH-to-BTC ratio fell to a five-year low of 0.01765.
Yahoo
12-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gold and Bonds' Safe Haven Allure May be Fading With Bitcoin Emergence
The idea of "safe haven" assets—traditionally marked by gold and government bonds—amid market turmoil, is being tested like never before. For decades, portfolio construction and risk management were simple: 60% equities, 40% bonds and when markets panicked, capital typically flowed into gold and government bonds. These assets were slow, steady, and predictable, making them an ideal safe haven for investors looking for protection against volatility. But in today's world of 24/7 markets, geopolitical instability, and rising distrust in sovereign systems, have turned that logic on its head, asking the question: does the definition of a safe haven need a refresh? Enter the new kid in the block: bitcoin. It is highly volatile, widely misunderstood, and often dismissed as a speculative asset by many corners of Wall Street and Main Street. Yet, it has staged an extraordinary run since the COVID-19 market lows. It's up over 1,000% since the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020. During that same period, long-duration bonds—measured via iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)—are down 50% from their 2020 highs. Even gold, the true and tried safe haven asset—up 90% over five years—looks less impressive when adjusted for monetary debasement, which saw, in 2020 alone, over 40% of the total USD money supply being printed. Still, bitcoin's safe haven credential remains contested by investors. In several recent risk-off events, it acted less like a hedge and more like a high-beta risk asset against the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 ETF. Covid-19 (March 2020): BTC fell 40% vs QQQ's 27% Bank crisis (March 2023): BTC -14%, QQQ -7% Yen carry trade unwind (Aug 2024): BTC -20%, QQQ -6% Tariff-led selloff (April 2025): BTC -11%, QQQ -16% The first three examples show bitcoin as a kind of leveraged tech trade. But the most recent tariff shock broke the pattern — bitcoin dropped less than the Nasdaq, showing relative strength in an otherwise weak macro environment spurred by President Trump's tariffs. While these data points may not make a trend, this evolving behavior highlights a broader phenomenon: the global financial backdrop has changed. 'Non-sovereign stores of value, like bitcoin, should do well," said NYDIG Research in a note. "Politically neutral assets should be exempt from the global machinations at play right now.' Bitcoin is volatile, yes, but it is also globally liquid, decentralized, censorship-resistant, and immune to tariffs or central bank policy. In an era of geopolitical tension and financial repression, those attributes start to make the asset look more enduring than other safe havens. Meanwhile, traditional safe havens aren't looking so safe. Gold's gains look less impressive when weighed against the scale of monetary expansion. Long-duration bonds aren't faring much better either as the 30-year treasury yield approaches 5%, making them painful for duration-heavy portfolios. Since the sell-off began last Thursday, the Nasdaq has dropped nearly 10%, bitcoin is down 6%, TLT has fallen over 4%, and gold has slipped more than 3%. Meanwhile, the DXY index — which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies — remains relatively flat, while the all-important U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has surged nearly 8%. On a risk-adjusted basis, bitcoin is holding its ground—performing no worse than traditional safe-haven assets like gold or TLT. Looking at these four major crisis events, a pattern emerges: : each sell-off in bitcoin has marked a significant long-term bottom. During the COVID crash, BTC dropped to ~$4,000 — a level never seen again. In the March 2023 banking crisis, it briefly fell below $20,000 before resuming its climb. The August 2024 yen carry trade unwind brought it down to $49,000 — again, a level that hasn't returned. If history is any guide, wherever this current low takes us, it may well establish the next long-term floor. So, is Bitcoin a safe haven? If the old framing — low volatility and downside protection during a panic — still holds, then BTC falls short. But in a financial world dominated by sovereign risk, inflation, and constant policy uncertainty, bitcoin starts to look more like an asset that investors might need to consider for durability, neutrality and liquidity. In this evolving landscape, maybe bitcoin isn't failing the safe haven test. Maybe the old playbook of what safe haven is, needs to change. Sign in to access your portfolio
