5 days ago
Met Office uses 'boiling pan of water' to explain forecast for hail, lightning and 40mm of rain
Met Office uses 'boiling pan of water' to explain forecast for hail, lightning and 40mm of rain
After the storm, next week will be warm but with a risk of more thunder to come
Some areas could see thunderstorms, but it is hard to say where
The Met Office has issued a yellow warning for possible thunderstorms on Saturday. The Yellow National Severe Weather Warning comes into effect at 9am and covers parts of central and southern England and Wales. Later on Friday evening, more persistent rain and showers will arrive in the southwest, spreading eastwards overnight and becoming windy in the southwest by dawn.
Saturday will see frequent heavy showers, some thundery with gusty winds and hail. Met Office Chief Meteorologist Dan Suri said: 'Frequent heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected for much of Saturday, before they fade from the west during the mid-to-late afternoon. 'It's possible that 10-15mm of rain could fall in less than an hour, while some places could see 30-40mm of rain over several hours from successive showers and thunderstorms. Frequent lightning, hail, and strong, gusty winds are also possible.
'A yellow warning for thunderstorms has been issued and covers parts of central and southern England and Wales. While brisk winds ensure that most places in the warning area will be hit by showers, not all places will see thunderstorms. In this case it's difficult to predict where exactly thunderstorms will hit because they are small and fast changing.
'One analogy we use to picture the complexity of this forecasting challenge is comparing it to boiling a pan of water and having to guess exactly where and when the bubbles will appear. We know some will, but only in certain places, and that is why thunderstorms are so hard to predict.'
The Met Office says Sunday will be a quieter, drier day for most. There will be some showers around and these will be most frequent in the north and also the east at first. Clear and sunny spells are expected for many though, with perhaps some more persistent showers later in the west/northwest.
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The new week will begin with sunshine and showers on Monday, mainly in the north, with plenty of dry weather in the south. Tuesday sees the possibility of a new low-pressure-system which is currently far out in the Atlantic, potentially pushing another weather front over the UK. This low would help to develop a more southerly flow for the UK though, bringing warmer air from Wednesday onwards. Although temperatures look set to rise – with the high 20s°C possible in the southeast on Thursday – the Met Office says this warm air also brings with it the risk of thunderstorms, which could mean an unsettled end to the week.
