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Forbes
29-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
How Will Estée Lauder Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
A general view of the Estee Lauder retail store front in Shanghai, China, on April 11, 2025, as ... More China raises tariffs on US goods to 125 percent (Photo by Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty Images). Estée Lauder (NYSE:EL) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 1, 2025. Event-driven traders may find historical patterns useful for developing prospective trading strategies. Estée Lauder's stock has shown negative one-day returns following earnings announcements in 70% of cases over the previous five years. The median negative one-day return during these announcements was -7.3%, with the largest single-day decline reaching -20.9%. Traders can potentially take advantage of these historical trends in two ways: first, by grasping the historical probability of negative returns and positioning themselves prior to the earnings announcement. Secondly, they can evaluate the relationship between immediate post-earnings returns and medium-term performance to guide trading decisions after the announcement. The forthcoming earnings report for Estée Lauder is expected to indicate a drop compared to the same quarter from the previous year. Consensus estimates forecast earnings per share of $0.31 on sales of $3.51 billion, a decrease from $0.97 per share on sales of $3.94 billion during the same quarter last year. This expected decrease is primarily due to diminished demand in mainland China and difficulties within its global travel retail sector, both of which are likely to adversely affect Estée Lauder's Q3 performance. From a fundamental viewpoint, Estée Lauder currently has a market capitalization of $21 billion. Over the past twelve months, it generated $15 billion in revenue and $1.5 billion in operating profit. However, its net income for the same timeframe was $-700 million. In conclusion, while the actual market response to Estée Lauder's earnings will depend on how the results align with expectations, comprehending both the historical stock behavior post-earnings and the current fundamental challenges may provide important context for event-driven trading strategies. If you are looking for an investment with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – having surpassed the S&P 500 and achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: Additional information regarding the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns after earnings is compiled along with the statistics in the table below. EL 1D, 5D, and 21D Post-Earnings Return A strategy that is relatively less risky (though it may not be effective if the correlation is weak) is to examine the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and carry out the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the strongest correlation, a trader could position themselves 'long' for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below, we present some correlation data based on both the 5-year and more recent 3-year history. Keep in mind that 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns. EL Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns Occasionally, the performance of peers can influence post-earnings stock reactions. In fact, the pricing might start before the earnings are disclosed. Below is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Estée Lauder stock in comparison to the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Estée Lauder. For an accurate comparison, peers' stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns. EL Correlation With Peer Earnings Discover more about the Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), providing robust returns for investors. Additionally, if you prefer upside with a steadier approach than an individual stock like Estée Lauder, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has consistently outperformed the S&P, achieving >91% returns since its launch.
Forbes
21-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Microsoft Quietly Gearing Up For A $500 Breakout?
A general view of the Microsoft headquarters in Shanghai, China, on April 8, 2025, as rumors ... More circulate on social media about Microsoft ceasing operations in China and laying off tech workers in China. (Photo by Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty Images) The headlines are full of Nvidia's (NASDAQ:NVDA) GPU madness, Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) China risk, and Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) margin implosion - but while the rest of the Mag 7 dance on a tightrope, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is quietly setting up for what could be a 20–25% upside, putting a $500 price tag within reach. You don't need hype when you have compounding cash flows, irreplaceable products, and a balance sheet strong enough to fund a small country. This isn't a meme trade - it's a fortress stock. It's hard not to have it in your portfolio. And if you do not want to undertake the painstaking and meticulous process of identifying the right portfolio mix, consider our High-Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P 500 and achieved returns greater than 91% since inception. Let's break down why smart money could rotate into Microsoft - and fast. Let's start with this: Microsoft generates $100 Bil+, in fact > $115 Bil , in operating profit annually. So you have a company that's growing faster than Apple, is cheaper than Nvidia, has better margin than Amazon, and is less volatile than Tesla. Why won't you have it in your portfolio? Unlike Apple or Nvidia, Microsoft doesn't ship chips or assemble phones in China. And that matters. In a de-globalizing world, Microsoft's geopolitical footprint is a superpower. Right now, Nvidia and Meta have stolen the spotlight. But valuations are stretched, and institutional funds know rotation is coming. This is what positioning before the crowd looks like. Microsoft is exciting, isn't it? But investing in a single stock can be risky no matter what. We diversify away this risk while giving upside exposure in Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio which, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios | Rules-Based Wealth
Forbes
08-04-2025
- Automotive
- Forbes
Social Threat Fuels Consumer Backlash & Brand Risk-What Brands Can Do
The banner of boycott is seen in front of the Tesla storefront as a dozen people take part in a ... More worldwide boycott action against Tesla in Mulheim-Karlich, Germany, on March 29, 2025. (Photo by Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty Images) Brand leaders are navigating unprecedented cultural volatility. The middle ground has all but disappeared. On one side, executive directives and legislation are rapidly restricting Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) efforts, forcing compliance decisions across industries. On the other, brands face public boycotts and social media firestorms—accusations of 'wokeness' from some, and 'moral cowardice' from others. Doing too much is risky. Doing too little is risky. Many companies are choosing to retreat. They're dialing down DEI language, pulling back from social commitments, or saying nothing at all—hoping that silence will shield them from backlash. But increasingly, that strategy isn't working. Silence doesn't feel neutral—it feels evasive. In March 2025, a wave of coordinated consumer boycotts hit major companies including Amazon, Target, Walmart, and Tesla. These campaigns, mobilized primarily through social media, directed consumers to pause purchases, divest stock holdings, and publicly call out brands. The scale was unprecedented: a recent survey found 41% of U.S. adults planned to boycott at least one major retailer, with the February 28 "economic blackout"—a day-long spending halt protesting DEI rollbacks—serving as a rallying point. Target faced more sustained pressure through a 40-day boycott, with early indicators showing measurable declines in both physical store traffic and digital engagement across affected brands. Brands are trapped in what feels like a no-win situation. But beneath the noise of political polarization lies a deeper, more enduring opportunity—understanding the emotional and social landscape that all consumers now inhabit. Unlike politically charged DEI initiatives that inherently divide audiences, addressing social well-being offers a uniquely universal approach. The need to feel recognized, connected, and secure transcends political affiliation—creating an opportunity for brands to reach across divides while carrying significantly less risk than explicit political positioning. Beneath the surface, consumers are grappling with far more than political division. lTheir sense of social well-being is fraying at an alarming rate. This erosion of feeling recognized, connected, empowered, and safe in society manifests as rising social fatigue, identity tension, and public distrust. The evidence is stark: the United States has plummeted to its lowest-ever ranking—24th place—in the World Happiness Report, with younger Americans reporting significantly lower life satisfaction than previous generations. Researchers attribute this decline directly to political polarization and the collapse of social trust. In this fragile context, brand signals carry unprecedented weight. Every campaign, message, or moment now serves as a critical clue about whether a consumer is seen, respected, or safe in an increasingly threatening social landscape. The path forward requires a shift in perspective. This moment isn't just about damage control or cause marketing—it's about recognizing that consumer trust and loyalty now hinge on how brands prioritize and shape their social well-being. Understanding that terrain is no longer optional. It's essential. To understand why these brand interactions feel so high-stakes, we need to look beneath the surface—at the psychological forces that shape how consumers experience social well-being. The emotional volatility brands are facing isn't just about politics—it's about how consumers experience society and how brand actions influence that experience. This is social well-being: the degree to which people feel recognized, connected, empowered, and safe in their social world. Sociologist Corey Keyes identifies five core dimensions that shape social well-being, all currently under stress: Social Integration: Polarization has fractured our sense of shared community, leaving consumers questioning "Do I belong here?" before engaging with brands. Social Acceptance: Declining trust in institutions and normalized public shaming has consumers approaching all interactions with increased skepticism. Social Contribution: Feeling powerless against complex global issues, consumers use boycotts and activism to reclaim agency—effective only when brands demonstrably respond. Social Coherence: Disinformation and policy contradictions (like sudden DEI reversals) destabilize consumers' sense of predictability, with inconsistent brand messaging adding to the confusion. Social Actualization: Economic anxiety and perceived cultural decline have dimmed optimism, with younger generations looking to brands for signals that progress remains possible. Notably, these fundamental social needs aren't partisan. Consumers across the political spectrum are navigating this crisis of connection and trust. Research shows that conservatives and progressives share the same basic requirements for social thriving—making these needs uniquely non-partisan territory for brands. While companies can't solve these problems alone, they shape the environments in which people interpret their place in the world. That's why brand strategy must focus beyond demographic targeting to understanding how consumers are doing socially—and designing experiences that help them feel recognized, empowered, and secure across ideological divides. People don't simply react to what brands say; they respond to how brand messages make them feel—socially, emotionally, and existentially. At the heart of social well-being lies a simple but powerful dynamic: we are constantly scanning our environments for social threat or social reward. Social threat arises when people feel invisible, excluded, humiliated, or disempowered. It triggers defensiveness, withdrawal, or backlash—not necessarily out of outrage, but as a self-protective response. Social reward, by contrast, is felt when people experience recognition, inclusion, dignity, and the ability to contribute. It fosters trust, openness, and connection. These dynamics drive what researchers call social languishing or social flourishing. When consumers feel socially threatened, they begin to disengage—from brands, institutions, and even their own communities. When they feel socially rewarded, they're more likely to connect, advocate, and remain loyal. This isn't just emotional—it's biological. Neuroscience shows that the brain processes social pain in much the same way it processes physical pain. Being excluded or devalued activates the same neural pathways as a physical injury. In short: our need to feel socially safe isn't just a preference. It's a human imperative. This social threat/reward dynamic operates at a neurological level more fundamental than political identity. Consumers across the political spectrum experience the same neural responses to exclusion, uncertainty, and diminished agency—making social well-being a uniquely non-partisan framework for brand strategy in a divided market. And here's the critical shift for marketers: the question is no longer should brands play a role in social well-being. They already do. Whether intentional or not, every brand message, silence, campaign, or interaction is interpreted through this lens of threat or reward, sending signals about who belongs, who matters, and who gets to feel secure. The cumulative effect of those interpretations directly shapes how socially well—or unwell—people feel. Branding doesn't just reflect culture—it helps construct the symbolic environments people live in. And in this moment, those environments matter more than ever. We've reached a turning point. The old mandate—don't offend, stay neutral, avoid risk—no longer works. Consumers are not asking brands to stay out of social dynamics. They're watching to see whether brands will help create environments where they feel seen, safe, and socially valued. Brands that support positive social well-being aren't just "doing good." They're building loyalty in a fragmented society. This moment demands more than inoffensiveness. In a fractured society, it's no longer enough for brands to avoid harm. To grow, they must become agents of repair—designing environments that offer dignity, not just neutrality. This isn't about solving politics. It's about recognizing the deep human need for affirmation and inclusion—and the opportunity brands have to meet that need in powerful ways. From representation in ads to language choices to customer experience design, every touchpoint can either reinforce social threat or contribute to social flourishing. CMOs can take immediate action today by: In the next article, I'll provide a comprehensive framework for conducting a full "threat audit" across five key dimensions. These five domains—Belonging, Status, Fairness, Agency, and Security —represent the primary areas where social threats can occur. When consumers experience threats in any of these domains, their overall social well-being diminishes, affecting their capacity for social integration, acceptance, contribution, coherence, and actualization. You'll learn to identify which threats are most active in your customer base and how to transform them into engagement opportunities, including analyzing threat sources at societal, organizational, and individual levels. These initial steps, however, will position you to begin shifting your approach immediately. Even minor changes to messaging, visual signals, or interaction design can create powerful moments of recognition where consumers feel valued precisely in the ways they're most lacking. By addressing these core human needs, brands sidestep the high-risk territory of traditional DEI programming while achieving many of the same objectives. This approach carries substantially less risk precisely because it's grounded in universal psychological principles rather than politically charged language or initiatives that inevitably alienate segments of your audience. Marketers once led the charge for social progress—they can again. But not through bold statements. Through neurologically-informed design that speaks to our primal need for belonging. In a culture shaped by threat, brands that understand the neuroscience of social well-being won't just survive—they'll define the next era of consumer connection. Because in divided times, the most powerful move isn't taking a side. It's addressing the universal human needs that transcend those divisions entirely, without the polarization risk that doomed traditional DEI efforts. Social well-being isn't just another brand initiative. It's your competitive advantage in a fractured market.
Forbes
28-03-2025
- Forbes
The Beauty Of Spring Around The World In 14 Gorgeous Photos
A happy bird enjoys the blossoms at a park. Photo by Qu Mingbin The beauty of spring has arrived. With its magic and its colorful flowers, singing birds, fragrant blooms, love in the air and longer days, nature invites us to refresh our minds and bodies — and to celebrate life. As it paints the world with vibrant hues, the season that has forever inspired poets, painters, writers, musicians and other artists beckons everybody to new beginnings. Around the world, the magic of spring brings new growth and new hope, birds returning from their winter migrations, cherry blossoms, greening trees, busy bees, fluttering butterflies, courting rituals and baby animals. It's time to shed the winter blues along with the heavy coats. Take your camera and venture outdoors to enjoy the magic spectacle of nature. Here are some photos from around the world to inspire you. Plum blossoms in Nanjing, China. Tourists view the blooming plum blossoms at the Qinhuai Plum Garden in the Lishui district of Nanjing, China, in March. Under the blooming cherry blossoms at Stadtpark in Kaarst, Germany; Photo by Ying Tang The blooming cherry blossoms at Stadtpark in Kaarst, Germany, this week. A bird stands on a branch of a cherry blossom tree after a snowfall in Tokyo, Japan. Photo by Zhu Yaozhong The magic of spring's blooming trees in Tokyo, Japan. Spring scenery among colorful flowers in Los Angeles, California; Photo by Zhang Shuo A bird on a fully bloomed peach tree in Kashmir, India; Photo by Nazim Ali Khan A bird sits on the branch of a fully bloomed peach tree in Poonch, Kashmir, India. A spring wildlife scene in the Netherlands A Grey heron perches amid flowering yellow tulip blossom fields near Keukenhof, one of Europe's largest flower gardens. Situated in the Netherlands, it welcomes some 1.5 million visitors and tourists each year. The tulip flower is a popular Dutch symbol as the country has produced tulip flowers since the 16th century. The bee and the crocus at a botanical garden in Bavaria, Germany; Photo by Sven Hoppe A busy bee floats among crocus flowers at a botanical garden in Bavaria, Germany. Tulips in a field near Schwaneberg, Germany; Photo by Peter Gercke This tulip plantation nurtures tulip bulbs for allotment gardeners and bulk buyers in Germany, France, Austria and Switzerland. The Hallerbos forest in Belgium The Hallerbos forest covers an area of 552 hectares in the municipality of Halle, Belgium, and is well known in the region for its bluebell carpet that covers the forest floor for a few weeks each spring. A squirrel amid flowers surveys Greenwich Park, London. Photo by Jordan Pettitt A squirrel inspects its surroundings from a flowerbed in Greenwich Park, London, this week. Flamingos returning for the spring to Gediz Delta in Turkey. A couple of flamingos return for the spring to the Gediz Delta located on the Mediterranean-Black Sea migration route — one of the largest deltas in the Eastern Mediterranean, in Izmir, Turkey. A pair of storks mating on their nest in the Hessian Bergstrasse. Photo by Arne Dedert/dpa Storks are returning all over northern Europe to mate and raise their young. Against the backdrop of Auerbach Castle in the village of Hesse, Bensheim, a pair of storks mate in their nest. Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris, through blooming trees A beautiful frame this spring for the recently restored Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. Mount Fuji, Tokyo, Japan Legendary Mount Fuji at Lake Kawaguchiko, with cherry blossoms, rises in Yamanashi, near Tokyo. Baby lamb among daffodils in Scotland A new lamb takes its first steps in a field of flowers. The beauty of spring should serve to inspire and motivate you for the rest of the year — or at least until the cold weather returns and your winter coats are retrieved from the closet.
Yahoo
17-03-2025
- General
- Yahoo
What is the pink triangle? How a Nazi symbol became an emblem of LGBTQ+ rights
Wirestock Creators/Shutterstock Representatives of the ACT UP Dublin group walking with banners in the Dublin LGBTQ Pride Festival in 2019 No symbol has experienced a more drastic one-eighty than the pink triangle. What originally began as a symbol of shame in Nazi Germany has since been reclaimed as a symbol of LGBTQ+ Pride... only for the president of the United States to once again use it as a symbol of hate. Donald Trump sparked fury when he re-posted an article about his anti-LGBTQ+ military policies that featured the pink triangle with a red slash over it — which is used as a "no" symbol. But what is the pink triangle, and what does it really symbolize? Read more to find out. Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty Images A man placed a wreath at the monument of the memorial to gay and lesbian victims in Cologne, Germany on January 27, 2023 during the international holocaust remembrance day. The pink triangle was used to identify LGBTQ+ prisoners in concentration camps under Nazi Germany. It has since been reclaimed by queer activists as a symbol for the community, and has been featured in countless Holocaust tributes, AIDs memorials, and other acts of advocacy across the last several decades. Historical Contributor/Corbis via Getty Images TK CAPTION - see above LGBTQ+ prisoners kept in concentration camps were forced to wear an upside down pink triangle on their uniforms to mark them as queer. Homosexual acts had been outlawed in Germany since 1871 under Paragraph 175 of the German Penal Code, but authorities rarely enforced the laws, allowing LGBTQ+ communities to thrive in places like Berlin. As the Nazis rose to power, they toughened the nation's laws regarding sex between men and in 1935 began sentencing violators to ten years of forced labor. It's estimated that over 15,000 gay men were sent to concentration camps in Nazi Germany, where the pink triangle designated them for even harsher treatment, such as castration or medical experiments. Though hard data about them is not available, historians believe countless transgender and lesbian people also died in Nazi captivity. After the Allies liberated concentration camps at the end of World War II, they decided not to remove Paragraph 175 from German law. LGBTQ+ prisoners were not recognized as victims of the Nazis, and many gay men were forced to finish their prison sentences. Brooks Kraft LLC/Sygma via Getty Images TK CAPTION - see above The pink triangle was used by LGBTQ+ activists as early as the 1960s, but it became more widely adopted during the 1980s as a symbol of resistance in response to the AIDs epidemic. It was most prominently featured by the advocacy group Act Up, which flipped the triangle to point upwards. Act Up's use of the triangle was a purposeful reference to the Nazis, often pairing it with the slogans "Silence = Death" or "Never forget." The sayings, which have been used in anti-genocide movements, deliberately compared the U.S. government's failure to address the epidemic to a willful act of violence against queer people. Paul Chinn/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images The receding fog reveals the giant pink triangle installed on Twin Peaks to kick off Pride weekend festivities in San Francisco, Calif. on Saturday, June 29, 2019. Pink triangles are now used in Pride celebrations and LGBTQ+ memorials across the world. The symbol serves as a reminder of the unfair persecution the queer community has received throughout history, as well as a call to not allow the world to revert to such times. The city of San Francisco, California displays a giant pink triangle over the city every June to both honor past victims and acknowledge the ongoing attacks against the LGBTQ+ community in the U.S. today. Over 1,000 anti-LGBTQ+ laws have been proposed across every state legislature in the U.S. over the past two years, according to the American Civil Liberties Union, and 126 have passed into law. Less than two months into the 2025 legislative session, 511 laws targeting LGBTQ+ people have been proposed.
