Latest news with #Zabinska-LaMonica
Business Insider
22-04-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Leading Economic Indicators Signal Slower Growth Ahead
The Conference Board released its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for March 2025. The index declined by 0.7%, dropping to 100.5 (2016=100). This follows a revised 0.2% decrease in February, indicating potential economic challenges on the horizon. While the six-month contraction rate has improved, falling 1.2% through March compared to a 2.3% drop in the previous six-month period, the overall trend suggests economic momentum is waning. Stay Ahead of the Market: Discover outperforming stocks and invest smarter with Top Smart Score Stocks. Filter, analyze, and streamline your search for investment opportunities using Tipranks' Stock Screener. About the Leading Economic Index The LEI is a forecasting tool frequently used to anticipate turning points in the business cycle by about seven months. It combines ten economic indicators designed to signal changes in economic conditions before they become widely apparent: Manufacturing hours and new orders Unemployment insurance claims Building permits Stock market performance Interest rate spreads Consumer expectations Credit conditions These indicators offer investors, businesses, and policymakers valuable insights for planning purposes. The recent decline suggests caution, particularly regarding sectors sensitive to trade policies and consumer confidence. The Latest Index Results 'March's decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements,' explained Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board. These key areas of concern include declining consumer expectations, the largest monthly stock price drop since September 2022, and softening manufacturing orders. Despite these warning signs, Zabinska-La Monica emphasized that 'the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start.' However, The Conference Board has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast downward to 1.6%. This reduced growth projection largely reflects anticipated impacts from deepening trade wars, which could trigger higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, reduced investment and spending, and a weakening labor market. While the data points to slowing economic activity rather than imminent recession, the cumulative effect of multiple declining indicators signals that growth challenges may persist through 2025, especially if trade tensions continue to escalate. Key Takeaways The recent decline in the Leading Economic Index suggests the economic landscape faces challenges. Although this does not signify an imminent recession, slowing economic momentum indicates growth challenges, particularly with ongoing trade tensions and their potential economic impact. With a revised GDP growth forecast of 1.6% for 2025, stakeholders should prepare for further uncertainties from the economic environment.
Epoch Times
22-04-2025
- Business
- Epoch Times
Leading US Economic Indicator Continues to Decline in March, Predicts ‘Slowing Economic Activity Ahead'
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.7 percent in March to 100.5, continuing the declining trend seen in February, the think tank said in an April 21 LEI offers an early indication of where the economy is headed over the coming months. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, said the March decline 'pointed to slowing economic activity ahead.' For the six-month period ending in March, LEI contracted by 1.2 percent, which was a smaller decline compared to the 2.3 percent fall in the previous six months. Three of the index's components registered sizable declines last month—new orders in manufacturing, stock prices, which saw the biggest monthly fall since September 2022, and consumer expectations. The decline in these components came amid 'soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements.' Related Stories 4/18/2025 4/19/2025 The think tank revised down its GDP estimate for the United States this year to 1.6 percent, which is 'somewhat below the economy's potential,' Zabinska-LaMonica said, adding that data does not suggest the country to either be in a recession or soon face such a situation. 'The slower projected growth rate reflects the impact of deepening trade wars, which may result in higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, less investing and spending, and a weaker labor market.' Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in an For every 10 percent in new tariffs on foreign goods, American consumers could see a one-time price increase of only 2 percent or even lower, he said, citing a study showing that the roughly 20 percent tariffs imposed on China during the first Trump term only led to a price increase of 0.7 percent. 'If we could put on a 20 percent tariff and have the foreigners pay that, and use that money to bring down our government deficit and keep taxes low here, that's a very unique formula that hasn't been tried in this country for a long time,' Bessent said. Meanwhile, in March, the U.S. Following the release of the jobs report, the White House Tom Ozimek contributed to the report.
Yahoo
21-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US leading indicator declines sharply in March amid tariffs
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -A gauge of future U.S. economic activity fell sharply in March, potentially flagging tepid growth this year amid tariffs. The Conference Board said on Monday its Leading Economic Index dropped 0.7% last month after decreasing 0.2% in February. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index sliding 0.5%. It fell 1.2% in the six-month period ending in March after contracting 2.3% in the prior six months. "March's decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, business cycle indicators at The Conference Board. Zabinska-La Monica was referring to consumer expectations, stock prices and new manufacturing orders. "That said, the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start," said Zabinska-La Monica. (Reporting By Lucia Mutikani)
Reuters
21-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
US leading indicator declines sharply in March amid tariffs
WASHINGTON, April 21 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic activity fell sharply in March, potentially flagging tepid growth this year amid tariffs. The Conference Board said on Monday its Leading Economic Index dropped 0.7% last month after decreasing 0.2% in February. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index sliding 0.5%. It fell 1.2% in the six-month period ending in March after contracting 2.3% in the prior six months. "March's decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, business cycle indicators at The Conference Board. Zabinska-La Monica was referring to consumer expectations, stock prices and new manufacturing orders. "That said, the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start," said Zabinska-La Monica.
