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NBA Finals Game 7 predictions: Will Pacers or Thunder claim 2025 title?
It's all come down to this. Sunday night, either the Oklahoma City Thunder or the Indiana Pacers will be crowned NBA champions.
Few things in sports are more dramatic than a winner-take-all championship series finale. This is the 20th time the NBA Finals have gone the full seven games, and while this edition lacks the stature of 2016 — when LeBron James led the Cleveland Cavaliers to a legendary 93-89 victory over Steph Curry's 73-win Golden State Warriors — the Thunder and Pacers have delivered a captivating back-and-forth series. A victory Sunday could mark a new era of NBA basketball as aging stars give way to younger ones, and superteams cede to super depth.
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One thing is for certain: Picking against either team is perilous. Oklahoma City is a juggernaut at home, winning by an average of more than 20 points per game during the playoffs. But Indiana thrives as the underdog in the face of overwhelming odds. Tyrese Haliburton has already hit four game-tying or game-winning shots at the buzzer in these playoffs: Can he do it one more time?
Here's how members of The Athletic's NBA staff believe Sunday night will shake out:
Sam Amick: The Thunder are in grave danger here, in part because they have too often seemed to lack the necessary focus, intensity and gravitas required to win big games this time of year. Game 7 is where they pay the ultimate price for that cool, calm and collected demeanor, and the Pacers become legends for pulling off an epic upset.
Zach Harper: I'll take the Pacers. I think it sets up two things for storylines. One, it's the confusion of people trying to figure out how this Pacers team ended up as the best team in the NBA, and it brings into question if Adam Silver's NBA is working. Two, it sets the Thunder up for a monster 2025-26 season where they win 73 games and go, like, 16-2 in the playoffs to win the title as their own revenge for everybody calling them chokers all year.
Jason Jones: The Pacers will win Game 7. I have no fancy stats or analysis to back this belief other than every time it makes sense to go against the Pacers, they win. So why can't Indiana win one more game in Oklahoma City? I also can't pick against Tyrese Haliburton. I expect him to pull off another miracle. I have no idea what he'll do, but I expect something special. The Pacers might be the greatest collection of intangibles I've seen in the NBA Finals. There's really not one dominant player in the sense of one being an MVP candidate, but they keep winning — and they'll do it again.
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Zak Keefer: Why not? The Pacers are playing with house money; they won't be scared. In a lot of ways, this team is made for this moment — and don't forget, the pressure will be firmly on the Thunder Sunday night. If Indiana can drain a few early 3s, it'll amp up the anxiety of what figures to be a raucous crowd. The Pacers have already proved they can win in Oklahoma City. A stirring playoff run ends with an unforgettable Game 7 triumph.
Jay King: The Thunder have been the NBA's best team all season. They have the MVP. At home, they should have the advantage. The Pacers will knock them off anyway. At this point in the series, I trust Indiana's bench more. T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin have had huge moments. Taking care of the ball is never easy against the warlocks of the Thunder defense, but Indiana has committed 16 or fewer turnovers in four of the six games so far. When not coughing up the ball, the Pacers just have more scoring threats, and their defense has been great for much of the series.
They will need a big game from someone random (maybe Myles Turner, who is due to make some shots?), but I just trust the Pacers a little bit more than Oklahoma City. I never thought I would reach this place, but I'm here now.
Jon Krawczynski: The easy choice, and probably the right one, is the Thunder at home, where they have been outstanding all through the playoffs. But nothing about this amazing finals series has been easy, and the Pacers have a fiber about them that I can't overlook. History says this will be a rock fight. As our guy Mike Vorkunov pointed out, no team in a Game 7 in the finals has scored 100 points since 1988.
The Thunder can absolutely win with their defense, which has been the star of these playoffs. But I think a low-scoring affair benefits Indiana because it reduces the likelihood of an Oklahoma City home blowout, which we've seen so many times in these playoffs. If the Pacers can keep it close, they just seem to always find a way. This has been an incredible series. Both teams have proved that they are worthy champions. I like the Pacers' guts a little bit more.
James Boyd: I picked the Thunder in seven at the beginning of this series, and I'm sticking with them. The Pacers have been a respectable, even dangerous, challenger. But I believe league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will bounce back with a big-time performance in Game 7 and cement one of the greatest guard seasons we've ever seen. Indiana doubled SGA a lot in Game 6, causing him to commit a playoff career-high eight turnovers. Assuming the three-time All-Star is more poised under pressure and the role players around him shoot much better at home (Aaron Wiggins, Lu Dort, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace were a combined 2-for-11 on 3-pointers in Game 6), then the Thunder should claim their first title since the franchise relocated from Seattle to Oklahoma City in 2008.
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Christian Clark: I predicted the Thunder would win this series in five games, and I thought they would take care of business in Game 6. Whoops. The Pacers keep making me look foolish for underestimating them. Maybe they'll do it one more time. I just think the Thunder win Sunday. They're 10-2 with an average margin of victory of 20.6 points at home in the playoffs. The Thunder are too good at Paycom Center for me to pick against them.
John Hollinger: I'm picking Oklahoma City, much more reluctantly than I would have at the start of the series. I remain mystified that the Thunder can't get more traction offensively against what was a league-average defense in the regular season, and I assume home-court advantage will tilt things back in their favor. Don't dismiss Tyrese Haliburton's calf issue, either. Just because it wasn't a problem in a Game 6 blowout doesn't mean it won't be a bigger issue if he has to play 35-plus minutes in the finale.
Tony Jones: Oklahoma City? Congrats on the title. The Thunder have played one Game 7 in these playoffs and they ran roughshod over the Denver Nuggets. I see the same thing happening Sunday. The Thunder will emerge victorious, with a comfortable win.
Eric Koreen: This series has lived up to its length. Aside from having no overtime games, it has given us a bit of everything: a wild comeback, dominant efforts on home court, signature moments and hints at both individual and collective greatness. Crucially, nothing has remained static or predictable. Making a prediction for Game 7 is obviously foolish. It's one game between teams that have both proved they can confound the other in the right setting. That last word is why I'll default to picking the Thunder in a close-ish game, maybe most similar to Game 5, when Oklahoma City kept Indiana at arm's length for most of the night, with the Pacers making a late run to take it.
In the end, there just isn't much to choose from between the two teams. So, I'll take the one with home court, a healthier roster and a better regular-season résumé. However, if you are picking this game with any degree of certainty, I don't trust you.
Indiana 6, Oklahoma City 5.
(Top photo of Tyrese Haliburton and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
