Latest news with #ZiPS
Yahoo
21-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
NYY News: Rotation rounding into form
New York Daily News | Gary Phillips: Three-fifths of the intended Opening Day starting rotation is on the IL, with Gerrit Cole out for the year while Luis Gil and Marcus Stroman try to rehab and rejoin the club. Despite those blows, the Yankee rotation is rounding into form well, not just because of Max Fried. The starting staff was the worst in baseball in the season's first two weeks, but since then boast the second-best ERA in the game. The only squad better is the Texas Rangers, so this week should be a fun series. | Jacob Foster: A cadre of writers cast their votes for Rookie of the Year favorites now that we're about a quarter of the way through the season. Jasson Domínguez, still just 22, gets himself some scattered votes but no first-place slots, as the outfielder has earned himself everyday playing time, but doesn't quite measure up to the top two first-year players in the American League. The Martian still has three quarters of the season to catch up. Advertisement FanGraphs | Dan Szymborski: With the quarter pole in our review mirror, Dan takes us through the players whose ZiPS projections have most changed, for better and worse. On the 'best' front, ZiPS seems to be something of a believer in Trent Grisham's terrific start, and is also high on prospect George Lombard Jr. The Yankees have a rolling offense for now, and sure enough, don't have any names on the downgrade list. More from
New York Times
14-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
The Giants are struggling to score runs. Here are some reasons why
The year is 202(fill in your favorite year here), and you're worried about the Giants' ability to score runs. So it has been, so it shall be. A lack of runs was the major concern for the 2025 Giants on Opening Day, and it was easy to forget that when the wins were stacking up. Now that cold bats have led to the Giants' first four-game losing streak of the season, though, it's the only concern worth worrying about. It looks and feels worse than it is because of recency bias, park effects and league-wide scoring levels, and it helps to remember the Giants are still around the league average in all sorts of stats, from home runs to OPS+ to runs scored. But that doesn't mean it's not bad. It's definitely not great. Advertisement There's no quick fix, and there's no one-size-fits-all explanation. There's a symphony of reasons why the Giants aren't scoring. Some of the hitters in this symphony are blowing kazoos. Some of them have swallowed their kazoos. At least one of the hitters is poor Roger. Let's look at just how and why the Giants are struggling. If you've watched the Giants this season, you are not surprised by this factlet. But you might be surprised by just how extreme it's been. Let's compare the Giants to their preseason projections from ZiPS, which was actually a little bullish on the lineup. We'll use wRC+ because it accounts for league and park. Don't be intimidated by the nerd stats. Grab them by the lapels and make them work for you. All you need to know is that 100 is average, and that a player with a 95 wRC+ is 5 percent worse than the league-average hitter. A 105 wRC+ is 5 percent better, and so on. The Giants had a lot of hitters who were expected to provide league-average production or better. Several of them have actually matched or outpaced their projections, and we'll start with them: These players represent the good news, and there are a lot of them. That's six regulars this season who are doing even better than expected, which is generally where you want a team to be. There's nobody on an MVP pace, and nobody is wildly outpacing their expectations, but if two-thirds of the lineup is doing what you want them to, the offense should be doing fine. Then there's the other third. The Giants have several hitters performing better than expected, but none on an MVP pace. The Giants have several hitters performing worse than expected, but a few of those are on an LVP pace. There have been 226 batters in baseball this season with at least 100 plate appearances. Here's where these hitters rank in wRC+ among those 226: 166. Willy Adames 220. LaMonte Wade, Jr. 224. Patrick Bailey Advertisement If it makes you feel better, Joc Pederson and Tommy Pham are right next each other, between Wade and Bailey. None of them are slapping anything right now. This does not make you feel better. Adames' numbers are below average and worse than projected, but they're also a standard kind of unproductive. A lineup with as many over-performing hitters as the 2025 Giants have, so far, can handle players with Adames' numbers. Wade and Bailey have been two of the very worst hitters in baseball, and they've been getting a lot of plate appearances. And while Adames hasn't been nearly as ineffective, only 12 players in baseball have had more PA, so his subpar numbers reflect outcomes that have been happening more often compared to other players. It's all been enough to drag the offense down. It doesn't help that Tyler Fitzgerald was doing well, and his at-bats while on the injured list have been replaced by hitters who aren't doing nearly as well, but if there's one thing the 2025 Giants shouldn't complain about, it's injuries. Even with Fitzgerald, Casey Schmitt and Jerar Encarnación on the IL, this has been a healthier team than most. There's no way to gussy up these numbers. The Giants are last in the NL and 29th in baseball in hard-hit percentage, which is defined as a ball that leaves the bat at 95 mph or faster. The marine layer at Oracle Park isn't thick enough to affect the speed of the ball off the bat, so this isn't a ballpark thing. Hard-hit percentage doesn't correlate perfectly with runs, with Steven Kwan and Luis Arraez being famous examples of hitters who have been successful without a ton of 95-mph batted balls. It doesn't even correlate that well for entire teams, although it does correlate a bit. Here's every team this season: Still, it's better to hit the ball hard than not. Right now, the Giants are not. Statistically, it's better for pitchers to keep the ball on the ground. This is a baseball truism that helps explain why Logan Webb and Tyler Rogers are excellent major-league pitchers. The next grounder that goes over the fence will be the first one, and if you're eliminating that outcome, you're keeping more runs off the board. Advertisement The reverse is true for hitters. On average, it's preferable to get the ball in the air. Only two teams have a lower ground-ball percentage than the Giants: the Braves and Dodgers. They hit more balls in the air than the Yankees and the Cubs, two of the most potent offenses in baseball. That's a good sign, right? Except not all balls in the air are created equal. The Giants also rank second in baseball in pop-up percentage and first in the NL. This is tied to the hard-hit percentage from the last section, as it's hard to hit a ball 95-mph straight into the air. This is how the Giants can get the ball in the air just as much as the Dodgers (good), but not score as many runs (bad). Only the Rockies have seen a higher percentage of four-seam fastballs than the Giants this season, too, and that's not great company to keep. Pitchers aren't bothering with trickery or subterfuge. They're saying 'here, hit it.' The Giants have a .284 wOBA on the 2,229 four-seamers they've seen this season, and that's the worst mark in baseball. It's the worst in the National League by 23 points. They've seen more four-seam fastballs (206) right down the middle than most teams, and they're in the bottom third of baseball against them, with a .312 batting average and a .339 wOBA. For comparison, the Diamondbacks have a .500 BA and .614 wOBA on the 192 four-seamers they've seen down the middle. That's an extreme level of success, but 12 teams have a wOBA higher than .400 against fastballs down the middle. Probably because they're fastballs down the middle. Four-seam fastballs that are in the strike zone but not down the middle, though? The Giants are especially bad there, with a .249 wOBA, which is 57 points worse than the league average. You can get the Giants out with fastballs, even if they're down the middle, but you can really get them out if they're strikes around the perimeter of the strike zone. Not surprisingly, the Giants aren't great against four-seam fastballs that are thrown harder than 95 mph, ranking dead last against them, which suggests they're flummoxed by velocity even more than most teams. However, they're also dead last against fastballs thrown slower than 95 mph. They're the third-worst team against four-seam fastballs slower than 92 mph. They're bad against them when they're ahead in the count, and they're bad against them when they're behind in the count. On a boat, with a goat, et cetera, et cetera. They just hate four-seam fastballs! Advertisement They're not swinging through them, either, which might be part of the problem. They're making more contact than other teams, with a low whiff rate even against the ones over 95 mph. Whatever the reason, the rest of the league is aware of this. Throw them fastballs, and there's a good chance they'll get under it and pop the ball up. Fixable? Sure. There are a lot of established narratives through mid-May that vanish by the end of September. But if you're looking for a way to describe what's wrong, and you want evidence to back it up, here's the short version: The Giants don't hit the ball that hard, they pop too many balls up and they struggle against four-seam fastballs, which they see more often than almost every other team. They also have two of the five-worst starting position players in baseball through May 12. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play? Well, it's been pretty good for the most part, especially on the pitching side. The Giants still have a winning record, after all. Their biggest concern entering the season was how they were going to score runs, though. That's their biggest concern a month-and-a-half into the season, and it's only grown bigger. (Photo of Bailey: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
Fox Sports
22-03-2025
- Sport
- Fox Sports
Ranking the 10 best outfielders in MLB for 2025
When compiling a list of the game's top talents, how do you weigh a young player coming off a breakout season against a veteran with a longer track record of success? The question applies everywhere but especially in the outfield, with Jackson Merrill and Jarren Duran coming off huge years at a time when some of the game's elite outfielders were either limited by injury (Ronald Acuña Jr., Mike Trout, Fernando Tatis Jr., Kyle Tucker, etc) or took a step back offensively (Corbin Carroll, Julio Rodriguez). Trout, for instance, still remains highly productive when he's on the field, but he has now played in just 41% of his team's games over the last four years. Availability, after all, has to be taken into account. One thing we do know: The top outfield tandem in the sport is clear, even if that duo won't be teammates again in 2025. Our eight-part position series continues with the top 10 outfielders entering the 2025 season. 10. Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks 2024 stats: .231/.322/.428, 22 HR, 107 wRC+, 4.0 fWAR 2025 ZiPS projection: .256/.345/.449, 21 HR, 120 wRC+, 4.3 fWAR Was Carroll's abysmal first half (.213/.301/.334, five home runs) just a blip? His spectacular play after the All-Star break (.259/.351/.568, 17 homers) would suggest so. He finished with a 20-30 season, but it certainly wasn't the Rookie of the Year follow-up many expected. This will be an important year for the speedster to build off his strong second half and cement his status as one of MLB's top talents. 2024 stats: .285/.342/.492, 21 HR, 129 wRC+, 6.7 fWAR 2025 ZiPS: .262/.324/.455, 18 HR, 114 wRC+, 3.9 fWAR A member of the 2024 All-MLB Second Team and the All-Star Game MVP, Duran is coming off a career year in which he put all his tools together to post a 20-30 season while leading the majors in doubles and triples and ranking fifth in hits. He destroyed right-handed pitching and took a massive leap forward both offensively and defensively to finish eighth in AL MVP voting and top 10 in the majors in WAR. 2024 stats: .292/.326/.500, 24 HR, 130 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR 2025 ZiPS: .281/.322/.461, 21 HR, 119 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR Had Merrill played in the American League, you're looking at the runaway Rookie of the Year. Moving off his natural position of shortstop to play center field for the first time professionally, the 21-year-old did not look out of place. He was dynamic both offensively and defensively in an All-Star season in which he launched 24 homers, stole 16 bases, registered an .826 OPS and finished top 10 in MVP voting. 2024 stats: .276/.340..492, 21 HR, 135 wRC+, 3.2 fWAR 2025 ZiPS: .276/.346/.527, 29 HR, 144 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR There aren't many hitters in baseball who strike more fear in an opponent come October. Tatis always seems to turn his game up a notch when the lights are brightest, but the question is whether he can stay healthy over the course of a full year to fully realize the potential he flashed in 2019, when he launched 42 homers as a 22-year-old. The underlying numbers last year were even better than the .833 OPS he produced, and if he can stay on the field, the best should still be ahead for the 26-year-old. 2024 stats: .273/.325/.409, 20 HR, 116 wRC+, 3.9 fWAR 2025 ZiPS: .281/.338/.469, 27 HR, 135 wRC+, 5.8 fWAR Rodriguez's spectacular defense in center provides such a high floor that he's almost certain to be one of the most productive outfielders regardless of what he does at the plate. That said, while last year marked a third straight 20-20 campaign, his OPS has steadily declined since he was named Rookie of the Year in 2022. When he gets hot, though — as he did with a 1.122 OPS last July — he's capable of carrying a team. Can he put his offensive tools together for a full season? If he does, we're talking about a potential MVP. 2024 stats: .250/.351/.365, 4 HR, 105 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR 2025 ZiPS: .294/.393/.526, 26 HR, 154 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR Can we expect another 40-homer, 70-steal season coming off another ACL tear? Probably not. The truth is we don't know what version of Acuña we're going to get after his second major knee injury in a three-year span, but he demonstrated once that he can bounce back and be one of the most productive players in the sport. Even if he's not quite as daring on the basepaths upon his return, I'm not going to be the one who doubts the dynamic 27-year-old. 2024 stats: .289/.408/.585, 23 HR, 180 wRC+, 4.2 fWAR 2025 ZiPS: .263/.355/.472, 23 HR, 131 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR One of the most unheralded superstars in the game, Tucker played only 78 games last year and was still worth more than four wins. He finished with a 181 OPS+ and was on a nearly 9.0 WAR pace, coming off three straight years in which he was worth basically 5.0 WAR every season. The Cubs will need that kind of consistent star production to carry their offense in what could be his lone season in Chicago. 2024 stats: .308/.392/.567, 35 HR, 168 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR 2025 ZiPS: .300/.392/.576, 36 HR, 171 wRC+, 5.5 fWAR Alvarez may not get a whole lot of time in the outfield, but the value he brings with his offense makes him worthy of a top-three spot here regardless. While his body has not always been kind to him, his bat has. Alvarez has launched more than 30 homers in each of the last four seasons and has logged an OPS over .950 in each of the last three seasons. Over those last three years, Aaron Judge is the only qualified MLB player with a higher wRC+. 2024 stats: .288/.419/.569, 41 HR, 180 wRC+, 8.1 fWAR 2025 ZiPS: .277/.426/.521, 33 HR, 166 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR Remember when everyone wondered how Juan Soto could possibly turn down that $440 million extension offer from the Nationals a few years ago? Well, bet on yourselves, kids. The best should still be ahead for the richest player in the sport. Soto has the highest on-base percentage in MLB since debuting as a teenager in 2018 and has finished in the top 10 in MVP voting in five of the last six seasons. Over the last five years, he has drawn 582 walks; no other player has more than 417. 2024 stats: .322/.458/.701, 58 HR, 218 wRC+, 11.2 fWAR 2025 ZiPS: .282/.409/.600, 46 HR, 180 wRC+, 7.7 fWAR I mean, duh. It seemed preposterous that he could match the value he provided during his absurd 2022 season, when he broke Roger Maris' single-season A.L. home run record. Yet two years later, he recorded more hits, knocked in more runs and recorded better slash line numbers across the board while leading the majors in homers, RBI, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS in 2024 to earn his second MVP award in three seasons. He missed 56 games in 2023 and yet still has at least 25 more home runs than any player over the last three years. Honorable Mentions: Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels), Jose Altuve (Houston Astros), Riley Greene (Detroit Tigers), Michael Harris II (Atlanta Braves), Jackson Chourio (Milwaukee Brewers), Wyatt Langford (Texas Rangers), Steven Kwan (Cleveland Guardians), Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins), Teoscar Hernández (Los Angeles Dodgers), Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers) Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner . recommended Get more from Major League Baseball Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more
New York Times
19-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Jung Hoo Lee's MRI results were encouraging, but highlight Giants' precarious postseason hopes
An MRI of Jung Hoo Lee's back did not show structural damage, according to a statement by the Giants on Tuesday. They're hoping he can play before the weekend. The expected 26-man roster, lineup, rotation and bullpen arrangement is still mostly intact for Opening Day, with the exception of presumptive backup catcher Tom Murphy, who is out indefinitely. Advertisement The letters 'MRI' sent Giants fans into a mini-panic that could have evolved into a major panic, but all is well. For now. Nobody touch anything. Lee's back issues highlight something underneath the surface for the 2025 Giants. Maybe you've felt it, but you couldn't quite put your finger on it. Maybe it's as obvious to you as where Sean Hjelle is during Opening Day introductions. It goes something like this, though: There are about a half-dozen players in the lineup who make you think, 'If this guy goes down, the Giants are hosed.' There are about 27 or 28 other teams in baseball that feel the same way about several of their players, but think of the Giants' postseason hopes like a particularly rickety Jenga tower. If Lee's back were more seriously injured, that would have been a wiggly block pulled from one of the lowest levels of the tower. It's all blocks at the lowest levels at this point. It's not like the Giants don't have extra outfielders in the event of an emergency. Grant McCray could replace Lee's speed and defense if needed, and there's a chance Wade Meckler could replace some of the bat-on-ball skills. The Giants are hoping Luis Matos is polished and well-rounded enough to make a contribution wherever they need him to. So the fear of a more serious Lee injury wasn't that they were going to be completely unprepared. It's not like they would have needed to do something ridiculous and doomed to fail, like claiming a light-hitting first baseman on waivers and making him an outfielder for the first time in his life. But when you're constructing a path to the postseason for the Giants, you're doing it under the assumption that the expected contributors will contribute. You can run all the ZiPS projections for every team 18 times a day until the season starts, but one pitch, dive, swing or, in Lee's case, mattress, can change it all. Again, not unique to the Giants. It's not as if the Yankees' postseason odds held steady when they lost Gerrit Cole for the season. Their odds went down, especially considering they play in one of the most competitive divisions in baseball. Advertisement The Yankees still have strong postseason aspirations, though. They have slightly shaken but sturdy postseason hopes, even after losing Cole. It's not as if the Giants would have gone into rebuilding mode with worse MRI results for Lee, but if you're thinking that they have a shot at the postseason, you're probably optimistic about what Lee can add to a lineup that needs all the help it can get. If the last front office was right about his talent and ceiling, the Giants have a shot. If he's not around, the Jenga tower starts to wobble, and that's true for a lot of players in the lineup, even more so than usual. I won't name names because baseball players are a superstitious lot, but that projected lineup needs to stay as close to the actual lineup as possible, for as long as possible. You can make the argument that Matos would be a capable replacement for Lee's expected production, and I won't stop you. Except Matos doing anything of note is also one of the blocks in that Jenga tower. It's a little higher up from the foundation, but it's still there. A path to the postseason would be so much easier with Matos thriving in a jack-of-all-outfielders role, picking up starts for Mike Yastrzemski against lefties and roaming the other spots in the outfield when someone else needs a day off. Things change quickly in baseball, especially when necessity is the mother of substitution. The Giants were counting on Thairo Estrada last season, and when he forgot how to tell a ball from a strike, they had to pivot. An indirect downstream effect of Estrada's disappointing season was that Tyler Fitzgerald got at-bats and had a season strong enough to win a starting job this year. When Austin Slater got hurt, Heliot Ramos took his role and expanded on it. So it's possible for a crisis to turn into an opportunity. The happy accidents might eventually be a part of the 2025 Giants' story, but there's a limited supply of happy accidents that you can reasonably hope for. One is fine. Two is pushing it. Three is starting to get into science-fiction territory. More than that, and you're basically saying things like, 'If Barry Bonds signs a mid-season contract and hits 20 homers as the DH, the Giants might be fine.' They could claim Shohei Ohtani on waivers. It wouldn't be against the physical laws of the universe, so … You know the Giants will need a lemons-into-lemonade story, but hoping for one before the season actually starts is too much. That's why the news of Lee's MRI was so scary. The bad news is coming, and it's coming for every team at some point, but the Giants' postseason hopes are relying on them forestalling theirs for as long as possible. March is way too soon. Advertisement When Lee crashed into the center field wall last year, ending his season, the Giants already didn't look like a postseason contender. They'd go slightly over .500 for the rest of the season, but the Lee injury was when that wobbly Jenga tower crashed down. He was just starting to look comfortable and string hits together, and while the injury wasn't the reason the Giants finished nine games out of postseason position, it was the final sign that the team wasn't likely to hit the six-player parlay they were going to need to play in October. They didn't need that sort of feeling in March. You certainly didn't need it. But if you're wondering why a March MRI for a player with a career .641 OPS felt so ominous, here's why. There are only so many blows the Giants can absorb this season. They don't need to start taking them right now.
New York Times
18-02-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Why utilizing the mullet draft strategy gives your fantasy baseball team the leg up
'Business in the front, party in the back' doesn't just describe mullets and overzealous startup offices; it's a tried-and-true approach to fantasy baseball. The idea is to build a foundation early in your draft of balanced, reliable production so you can get fun and risky later. In past years, it was hard to quantify safety or, at least, do it efficiently. Mookie Betts feels safe. Oneil Cruz — less so. There's a statistical track record that reinforces those feelings, but they're still feelings. Categorical balance is a concept more closely tied to the numbers, but even there, it gets a little hand-wavey. Who is less balanced, Kyle Schwarber or Xavier Edwards? Who is more balanced between Betts and Kyle Tucker? Advertisement ATC and the intrepid work of its creator, Ariel Cohen, have put numbers to these questions. ATC is a weighted average of other projection systems. It puts Steamer, ZiPS, THE BAT and others into a blender that gives more weight to projections with a history of accurately predicting specific categories. As Cohen explains, ATC has three stats you won't see in other systems that measure categorical balance, to what extent projection systems agree or disagree about each player and whether those systems are balanced around a midpoint or skewed in one direction by an outlier. Here, we will look at those stats to identify hitters with low volatility among systems (reliability) who contribute across categories (balance). The ATC metrics that measure those are Vol (volatility) and Dim (dimension). Vol represents an auction dollar value equal to the variance across projections for a given player (specifically, one standard deviation from the average expected value). Part-time players can have very low Vols, but the lowest you'll see among full-timers is J.P. Crawford's 1.2. The lowest variance among players with an ADP under 300 is Seiya Suzuki (1.3). At the other end of the spectrum are prospects with Vols in the 6-8 range, but just below that are a couple of stars, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Michael Harris II, at 5.7. Dim happens to have a similar, slightly more constrained range. The number shows how many categories account for the bulk of the player's fantasy value. On the low end are specialists Edwards and Luis Arraez at 2.2. At the top of the list is Suzuki, again! He provides roughly equal value across the board for a Dim of 4.8. Just behind him is former teammate Cody Bellinger, along with Wilyer Abreu. Alone, none of these stats show player quality, just the form their ability takes. Here are ATC's projections for the top 15 most balanced players (in the top 150 by ADP) according to Dim: It's an eclectic group with similar stat lines. We see many steal totals in the teens and 20s, homers in the 20s and batting averages of around .260. I was surprised to see two catchers make the list. Now that we have a feel for maximally balanced stat lines, let's look at the top players with a Dim above 4. The most balanced players in the top 50 (by ADP) are: Hey, a lot of the top players are good at everything! Who knew!? The omissions on this list from the first two rounds are either monster hitters who don't run much or speedsters with middling power (or the unique baseball creature named Elly De La Cruz): Aaron Judge, De La Cruz, Juan Soto, Corbin Carroll, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Jarren Duran – studs who make your team just a little bit lopsided. Advertisement Scan the Vol column, and you'll find a few guys who offer balance and reliability. The projections are largely aligned on Gunnar Henderson essentially repeating his breakout. Tucker, Betts, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are your steady vets, and there is surprising consensus around Julio Rodriguez, Jackson Chourio and Wyatt Langford. As mentioned above, Tatis Jr. and Harris II are your big wild cards. In the first two rounds, you might think you want balance and consistency and then end up with De La Cruz and Harris II because they slipped so far that you couldn't pass on them. The mid-rounds are where you'll have to make more marginal calls and can make picks with a philosophy in mind. Let's look at the most balanced contributors from picks 50 to 100. There are a bunch of single-digit steals totals here, but the batting averages and HR totals are within a pretty tight range. Adley Rutschman made it with only two steals, but he's steady across the other four categories. Otherwise, we see players who, at least, offer value on the base paths with 20-something homers, a .260ish average, and R/RBI totals around the 70s. The volatility numbers and what you would expect from the players included are all over the place. Bryan Reynolds is as set-it-and-forget-it as they come. Luis Robert Jr., on the other hand, rolls a die every morning to determine if he's a mid-level asset or a top-10 player, consumed with ennui over being stuck on the White Sox. Lawrence Butler and Junior Caminero have volatility befitting tooled-up youngsters with a minimal track record, but the projections are more aligned on James Wood. Matt McLain's range is pretty health-dependent. At this point, players at every position except first base have made the list multiple times. Harper made the cut, and Willson Contreras will qualify there, but if you are prioritizing a balanced build, you may wait a while before drafting a first baseman. That said, we do have two in the next grouping. Here are the most categorically-balanced players from picks 100-150: More catchers! I don't entirely get it, but those on the list provide good balance compared to other catchers. We also finally got some first-base options with Josh Naylor and Bellinger. The projections are somehow largely in agreement on Royce Lewis but see Xander Bogaerts as one of the most volatile players in baseball, which I also don't entirely understand. Ian Happ's and Alex Bregman's low Vols correspond with the eye test, but while I am forever waiting on an injury-free Mike Trout breakout, the projections have given up on his health. Advertisement Let's look at some roster construction options that prioritize balance first and reliability when possible, assuming a mid-round pick. Kyle Tucker (RF), Bryce Harper (1B), Michael Harris II (CF), Pitcher 1, James Wood (LF), Adley Rutschman (C), Pitcher 2, Bryan Reynolds (LF, CF, RF), Cody Bellinger (1B, CF, RF), Luis Garcia Jr. (2B), Pitcher 3, Alex Bregman (3B) If you stick to this strategy, it's hard to pass on outfielders — the profile we're looking for leans toward the outfield position and shortstops. But glance at that team and imagine you have half the draft left: you're ready to take some shots, right? I don't see any real weak points here. Tucker again (RF), Jackson Merrill (CF), Pitcher 1, Jose Altuve (2B), Lawrence Butler (RF), Jordan Westburg (2B, 3B), Riley Greene (LF, CF, RF), Pitcher 2, Tyler Stephenson (C) We still need a first baseman and a shortstop, but that's a sexy outfield, and we're not hurting too badly in any category. We have solid power, a good dose of steals, and no projected average under .250. Also, notice that balance doesn't mean boring or drafting low-upside players. Lawrence Butler is neither of those things. This isn't the only way to build a team, but it gives you options and lets you grab players who fall later, as well as upside plays your opponents were hoping would fall another round as they try to save their batting average. After all, when you go business up front, the real fun happens later. (Top photo of Kyle Tucker: Denis Poroy / Getty Images)
