Latest news with #ZillowEconomists
Fast Company
a day ago
- Business
- Fast Company
Buyer's or seller's housing market? Zillow's new rating for 250 major markets
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert's ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Zillow economists use an economic model known as the Zillow Market Heat Index to gauge the competitiveness of housing markets across the country. This model looks at key indicators—including home price changes, inventory levels, and days on market—to generate a score showing whether a market favors sellers or buyers. Higher scores point to hotter, seller-friendly metro housing markets. Lower scores signal cooler markets where buyers hold more negotiating power. According to Zillow: Score of 70 or above = strong seller's market Score from 55 to 69 = seller's market Score from 44 to 55 = neutral market Score from 28 to 44 = buyer's market Score of 27 or below = strong buyer's market Nationally, Zillow rates the U.S. housing market at 55 in its May 2025 reading, published this week. That said, Zillow's reading varies significantly across the country. Among the 250 largest metro area housing markets, these 10 are the HOTTEST markets, where sellers have the most power: Rochester, NY → 145 Buffalo, NY → 110 Syracuse, NY 100 Charleston, WV → 99 Albany, NY → 97 Hartford, CT → 89 Lansing, MI → 85 Anchorage, AK → 83 Springfield, MA → 82 Manchester, NH → 81 Among the 250 largest metro area housing markets, these 10 are the COLDEST markets, where buyers have the most power: Macon, GA → 23 Jackson, TN → 24 Brownsville, TX → 27 Gulfport, MS → 27 Naples, FL → 27 Longview, TX → 27 Daphne, AL → 29 Punta Gorda, FL → 29 Beaumont, TX → 30 Cape Coral, FL → 31 Does ResiClub agree with Zillow's assessment? Directionally, I believe Zillow has correctly identified many regional housing markets where buyers have gained the most power—particularly around the Gulf—as well as markets where sellers have maintained (relatively speaking) somewhat of a grip, including large portions of the Northeast and Midwest. Based on my personal housing analysis, I consider Southwest Florida the weakest/softest chunk of the U.S. housing market. Not too far behind are pockets of Texas, Colorado, and Arizona markets where there's built up unsold spec inventory. In my view, many West Coast markets are softer right now than Zillow's analysis suggests—in particular, the areas that have recently seen big jumps in active inventory for sale. What did this Zillow analysis look like back in spring 2021 during the Pandemic Housing Boom? Below is Zillow's May 2021 reading—published in June 2021.
Fast Company
20-05-2025
- Business
- Fast Company
Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert's ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. This week, Zillow economists published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home prices—as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index—will fall by 0.9% between April 2025 and April 2026. After a series of downward revisions—beginning in January, when Zillow's 12-month national home price forecast was +2.9%, and subsequently lowered each month until reaching -1.7% last month—Zillow has finally stopped downgrading its outlook. That said, it's fair to call the Zillow economist bearish, given that for this forecast to be correct, 2025 would mark the first calendar-year home price decline since 2011. Why did Zillow downgrade its forecast for national home prices so many times this year? 'The rise in [active] listings is fueling softer price growth, as greater supply provides more options and more bargaining power for buyers,' Zillow economists wrote in March. 'Potential buyers are opting to remain renters for longer as affordability challenges suppress demand for home purchases.' Zillow thinks strained housing affordability—caused by U.S. home prices rising over 40% during the pandemic housing boom and mortgage rates spiking from 3% to 6% in 2022—is weighing on price growth. 'Affordability is still challenging buyers. A mortgage payment on a typical home in March required about 35.3% of median household income nationwide when using a 20% down payment,' wrote Zillow chief economist Skylar Olsen last month. 'That's a slight improvement over last year, but is still unaffordable. Spending more than 30% of income on housing is considered a financial burden, and a 20% down payment is a steep entry fee, coming out to about $72,000 on the typical U.S. home.' According to Zillow's home price model, the listing site also believes that weakening and softening housing markets across the Sun Belt will weigh on nationally aggregated home prices this year. Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow expects the strongest home price appreciation between April 2025 and April 2026 to occur in these 10 areas: Atlantic City, NJ: 3.2% Kingston, NY: 2.6% Torrington, CT: 2.4% Knoxville, TN: 2.3% Rochester, NY: 2.2% Syracuse, NY: 2.0% Vineland, NJ: 2.0% Fayetteville, AR: 1.9% Concord, NH: 1.9% Hilton Head Island, SC: 1.8% And these are the 10 housing markets where Zillow expects the weakest home price appreciation over that time period: Houma, LA: -10.2% Lake Charles, LA: -8.4% Alexandria, LA: -7.5% New Orleans, LA: -7.1% Lafayette, LA: -7.0% Shreveport, LA: -6.9% Beaumont, TX: -6.2% Midland, TX: -6.1% Monroe, LA: -5.5% Odessa, TX: -5.3% Below is what the current year-over-year rate of home price growth looks like for single-family and condo home prices. Florida is currently the epicenter of housing market weakness right now.
