Latest news with #Zollner
NZ Herald
06-05-2025
- Business
- NZ Herald
Economists predict 5.3% unemployment rate amid fragile economic recovery
'Given the economy is picking up, this should be around the peak.' The peak, which she and other economists were estimating at 5.3%, was a historically low one. But that was 'cold comfort' for those impacted – most likely to be young people, Māori and Pasifika, Zollner said. 'It's certainly true that recessions are not felt equally.' Westpac and ANZ economists are also picking 5.3%, the Herald reported this week. The country's 'fragile economic recovery' was under way, ANZ senior economist Miles Workman said. 'But given the typical lags, the recovery will likely take a few quarters to be reflected in the unemployment rate.' Other than Budget 2025, this is the last major piece of domestic data before the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Statement, Workman said. 'However, it's fair to say that changes to the RBNZ's economic forecasts are likely to end up more meaningful for the monetary policy outlook than starting-point news.' Economists at ASB see the unemployment rate landing slightly lower, at 5.2% for the quarter, and in line with the Reserve Bank's most recent forecast. It would still be the highest in just four-and-a-half years (unemployment peaked at 5.2% in late 2020 after the Covid shutdown recession). ASB senior economist Mark Smith said he expected broadly unchanged employment levels, with modest increases in the labour force pushing the unemployment rate marginally higher. 'The unsettled and uncertain local and global scene and soft domestic demand are expected to contribute to subdued hiring over much of the year until strengthening domestic activity feeds through into more hiring. 'Low growth in the labour force will dampen the peak in the unemployment rate [in the low 5s for much of 2025], with the unemployment rate subsequently easing.'
NZ Herald
27-04-2025
- Business
- NZ Herald
How America's indebtedness is trimming Donald Trump's wings
If investors believe they're taking on more risk, they'll demand higher returns. Given the US' net debt is nearing 100% of Gross Domestic Product (New Zealand's is at 25% according to the same measure of debt used in an IMF comparison), its interest costs are material. Indeed, they're so eye-watering, a spike in US Government bond yields a fortnight ago pushed Trump to announce a 90-day pause on his proposed tariff hikes for countries other than China. Harbour Asset Management co-chief executive Andrew Bascand characterised the bond market as the US' 'Achilles heel'. He described the recent sudden jump in US Government bond yields as 'an awakening moment for the advisers to the President, for Republicans in Congress, and for businesspeople to say, 'We need a well-functioning US bond market with reasonable interest rates''. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said the US was reliant on the rest of the world to fund its current account deficit and fiscal deficit, worth 7.3% in 2024. 'That is something you can't bully your way out of. And it's not one person you need to convince – it's a herd [of investors] that can run, unexpectedly, in unexpected directions,' she said. Zollner likened the bond market's response to Trump's initial tariff proposal to its response to Liz Truss' proposed big-spend budget that saw her 2022 tenure as British Prime Minister compared to the lifespan of a lettuce. 'When you have a lot of debt, you have fewer options. That's always true,' Zollner said. However, she feared the market's reaction to the tariffs marked more than a bout of volatility. Zollner and Bascand noted that it was unusual for both equity and bond prices to fall and for the US dollar to lose value at the same time. The situation reflected the fact that investors no longer saw US Government bonds and the US dollar as safe havens during times of instability. Zollner noted this meant we could no longer rely on the New Zealand dollar depreciating against the US during these period – a dynamic that had in the past supported New Zealand exporters, and therefore the economy more generally. 'The idea that US bonds are a hedge against equity volatility is built into every investment portfolio everywhere,' Zollner said. 'And if it's now up for question, that raises potential for some pretty large movements of capital throughout the world, which has potentially very large consequences for exchange rates.' Zollner was worried some of the conventions that had previously guided investors' asset allocations and approaches towards risk management were up in the air. This is wiping trillions off various investment funds around the world, and calling into question what constitutes a low, medium, or high-risk investment going into the future. Bascand believed a silver lining was that households and banks were better placed to withstand shocks than they were during the likes of the 2009 Global Financial Crisis. Indeed, banks are well capitalised. With the Official Cash Rate at 3.5%, Zollner also noted the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) had quite a bit of room to loosen monetary policy to support the economy. She believed some of the fears this would spur rampant house price inflation, as it did during the pandemic, would be curtailed by the RBNZ's introduction of debt-to-income restrictions on banks' mortgage lending. As for the RBNZ intervening in the bond market, like it did during the pandemic, or using the war chest of foreign currency assets it's been accumulating should it need to step into the currency market, Bascand couldn't see this being necessary – for now at least. In the meantime, Bascand was confident in the bond market's efficacy tempering Trump. Jenee Tibshraeny is the Herald's Wellington business editor, based in the parliamentary press gallery. She specialises in Government and Reserve Bank policymaking, economics and banking.
RNZ News
23-04-2025
- Business
- RNZ News
Consumer confidence rises despite concerns over higher inflation
Photo: RNZ Consumer confidence remains subdued despite an improvement in April, but household inflation expectations have soared amid the US-led tariff war . The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index rose 5 points in April to 98.3, meaning pessimists continued to outweigh optimists. A reading above 100 indicated optimism. Inflation expectations jumped 0.5 percentage points to 4.7 percent, the highest reading since July 2023. "It may be related to global tariff talk, but since New Zealand is not putting on new tariffs, global developments are unlikely to be inflationary here," ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said. She said household inflation expectations mattered less for the inflation outlook than business inflation expectations. "But all else equal, when households are expecting high inflation, that can boost wage demands and make it easier than otherwise for firms to raise their prices," Zollner said. More people continued to feel it was a bad time to buy a major household item, but sentiment improved. "It's still a long way from suggesting good times for the retail sector," Zollner said. A net 23 percent of households expected to be better off this time next year - an improvement of 7 points, and perceptions of current personal situations improved. "It's good to see that New Zealand consumers so far appear to be relatively unfazed by the recent bout of global volatility," Zollner said. "In the bigger picture, though, consumer confidence remains subdued, and this is dampening the outlook for the retail sector." Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
Yahoo
26-02-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Shawnee Tribe clashes with Kansas Historical Society, others in effort to reclaim boarding school
The West Building is the oldest of the three buildings still standing at Shawnee Indian Mission state historic site, and was used in 1855-56 as offices for the first territorial legislature, known as the "Bogus Legislature" for its pro-slavery stance. Thomas Johnson, a Methodist minister who founded the mission, held at least seven enslaved persons during the 1850s, but the fates of these individuals is unknown to the historic site's partners, including the Kansas State Historical Society. (Max McCoy/Kansas Reflector) TOPEKA — State, city and tribal leaders scrutinized Tuesday an attempt from the Shawnee Tribe to acquire control of a former Native American boarding school amid disagreements over their shared history. In the tribe's second attempt to reclaim the land where Native American children from 1839 to 1862 endured assimilation tactics, resistance came from the Kansas Historical Society, the city of Fairway and a nonprofit organization, all of which currently help operate the Shawnee Indian Manual Labor School, also called the Shawnee Indian Mission. Shawnee Chief Ben Barnes of Oklahoma told legislators during a bill hearing the school was 'built on Shawnee lands by Shawnee hands and using Shawnee funds.' House Federal and State Affairs Committee chairman Tom Kessler, a Republican from Wichita, introduced the bill earlier this month. House Bill 2384 mimics one that received a hearing in 2024 to authorize the historical society to transfer the nearly 12 acres to the Shawnee Tribe with stipulations. The bill would forbid the tribe from opening a casino on the land. Barnes said his tribe's efforts have been misrepresented with some opponents saying a transfer would put the site's history at risk. 'The reality is that history is already being lost,' he said. Barnes expressed concerns with the current operations of the boarding school site, including hosting things like yoga lessons and chili competitions, along with narrow educational efforts and a lack of long-term planning. The historical society is required to create a five-year plan for the landmarks under its purview each year. The historical society has worked in tandem with the city of Fairway since 2016 to operate the site, and a three-way agreement is currently in the works between the society, the city and the Shawnee Indian Mission Foundation, a nonprofit that doesn't declare affiliation with any tribe, according to its tax filings and mission statement. All three opposed the bill, including Fairway Mayor Melanie Hepperley and Patrick Zollner, the executive director of the historical society. 'We absolutely are invested in telling everyone's story,' Zollner said. He said it's arguably the state's most historic site, highlighting its use as barracks for Union soldiers and one of the only remaining stops used by travellers on the Oregon, California and Santa Fe trails. It is the most visited historical landmark in the state, second only to the state Capitol building, Zollner said. 'It's not falling down. It's in good shape,' he told legislators Tuesday. 'It's better than some of our other state historical sites and we know there's still work. We do have a plan.' The Shawnee Tribe hired Architectural Resources Group, a firm that specializes in historic architecture, to evaluate the site, and the resulting report found it was in need of $13 million in repairs and preservation and restoration efforts. In response, the Shawnee Tribe came up with a 10-year plan to fund millions of dollars in restoration that involves crafting and construction techniques that adhere to the time the school was built, Barnes said. With the backing of the tribal government, he said, the tribe has pledged to fully fund the project. Republican Rep. Clarke Sanders of Salina recalled hearing the same bill last year. 'It seems to me the problem is the opponents don't believe you're going to do what you say you're going to do,' said Sanders. The bill itself contains language requiring the tribe to adhere to its plans, Barnes said in response. Representatives from four federally recognized tribes in Kansas signed a joint resolution supporting the land transfer. Those four tribes — the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation, the Kickapoo Tribe of Kansas, the Sac and Fox Nation of Missouri in Kansas and Nebraska, and the Iowa Tribe of Kansas and Nebraska — also want to weigh in on the future of the school site. Any financial contribution to the Shawnee Tribe's restoration efforts from other tribes has not been discussed, said Joseph Rupnick, chairman of the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation's tribal council. 'We just want to make sure that we're being consulted on any work that's being done out there to make sure that it fits within our vision of what that site should look like,' he said. On the other hand, members of the Kaw — or Kanza — Nation, which originally possessed much of present-day northeast Kansas, and other tribes were unsupportive. Melissa Garrett, an enrolled citizen of the Cherokee, Quapaw and Seneca-Cayuga nations, described her grandfather as a survivor of the Carlisle Indian Industrial School, the first off-reservation boarding school in the U.S. While assimilation did occur in Kansas, Garrett cautioned against oversimplifying history and comparing it to federally mandated boarding schools. 'Instead of transferring ownership to a single tribe, we should try to preserve an inclusive, multi-tribal, state-supported preservation model that reflects the full history and the complex history,' Garrett said. The boarding school was founded by Thomas Johnson, a Methodist missionary, slaveholder and pro-slavery advocate. He is also the namesake of Johnson County, where the historical site is located. Children from 22 different tribes attended the boarding school. Most of the attendees were from the Shawnee and Delaware — historically called Lenape — tribes, which lived in present day Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey. Indigenous people either moved eastward on their own to avoid encroaching colonialism or were forced eastward into 'Indian Territory,' including present day Kansas. Both the Shawnee and Delaware tribes were removed from Kansas to Oklahoma once Kansas became a state. A collection of records about Johnson and the school was published in 1939. A September 1854 entry from the Daily Republican in Massachusetts reads: 'He draws pay for every one present the first day, and it always happens that after the first few days, the school diminishes wonderfully in numbers. No restraint is exercised over those children who wish to go, and some who wish to stay and learn are abused to such a degree that they are obliged to go.' The state of Kansas acquired the 12 acres of land in 1927, and it was designated as a historical landmark in 1968. Attention to the problematic history of Native American boarding schools has been piqued in recent years. Former President Joe Biden issued a formal apology on behalf of the U.S. government in October for the country's boarding school program. Former Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland created the Federal Indian Boarding School Initiative to examine and document the troubled history of Native American boarding schools in the U.S.
Yahoo
24-02-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Delays push opening date back for Kansas Museum of History
TOPEKA (KSNT) – Major renovation work at the Kansas Museum of History is experiencing some delays which has pushed the expected opening date back this year. The Kansas Historical Society (KSHS) began the expansive renovation process at the museum in Topeka in September 2022. The Kansas Historical Foundation helped raise the more than $6 million in funds necessary to complete the project with an opening date set for January 2024. Patrick Zollner, executive director of the KSHS, reported to the Kansas Legislature in December 2024 the timeline for finishing the renovation work was experiencing delays. He told lawmakers the KSHS had hoped to reopen the museum on Kansas Day in 2025, which came on Jan. 29 as people celebrated the state's 164th birthday. Kansas Highway Patrol scraps $48 million plan for new headquarters Zollner reported that it was discovered in May last year the costs associated with the new gallery exhibit walls, ramp and supporting engineering work hadn't been included in the price of the project, leading the KSHS to estimate an additional $904,000 to complete the renovations. The KSHS then turned to the Kansas Legislature to acquire the money for fiscal year 2025 with a proposed opening date sometime in the middle of the year. 27 News reached out the KSHS and Zollner on Feb. 24 to gain a better understanding of the situation and when people might expect the museum to open its doors again. He said work should be completed on the museum gallery by the end of October with the KSHS tentatively hoping for a grand opening in November 2025. The KSHS is still waiting for approval from the Kansas Legislature on the extra $904,000 to complete the necessary work at the museum. Whether the KSHS will receive the additional requested funds is still up in the air. 'With the legislature still in session, it's hard to say,' Zollner said. 'Initially, the House Committee on Appropriations approved the $904,500 supplement to our FY 2025 budget to pay for the museum gallery interior wall infrastructure. However, it was later removed from our budget in their final recommendations. We have yet to testify before the Senate Committee on Ways and Means.' Squatting could become a crime in Kansas with new bill The Kansas Museum of History hasn't undergone major renovations like this for more than 30 years. Once it reopens, people can expect to find new artifacts added to the museum's already extensive collection along with a revamped interior that presents guests with the history of the Sunflower State and that will have brand-new classroom spaces, an outside dining terrace and a lobby café. Sarah Bell, director of the Kansas Museum of History, told 27 News in August 2024 houses between 2,500 and 3,000 artifacts related to the state's history. Iconic pieces of Kansas' past are housed inside the museum such as covered wagons, American Civil War relics, historic aircraft and the oldest surviving locomotive from the Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe Railway. The Kansas Museum of History can be found in Topeka at 6425 Southwest Sixth Avenue. You can learn more about the renovation work by clicking here. Found an arrowhead in Kansas? Archaeologist urges you to leave it alone For more Kansas news, click here. Keep up with the latest breaking news in northeast Kansas by downloading our mobile app and by signing up for our news email alerts. Sign up for our Storm Track Weather app by clicking here. Follow Matthew Self on X (Twitter): Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
