27-05-2025
Gulf Diplomacy Key to Progress in US-Iran Negotiations, Says Pascual
TDT | Manama
'Understanding and Navigating the World (Dis)Order' was more than just the title of Carlos Pascual's keynote speech at the Middle East Petroleum & Gas Conference (MPGC) at the Four Seasons Hotel, it was a candid call to prepare for a new era shaped by global fractures, economic volatility, and energy insecurity.
Pascual, Senior Vice President for Geopolitics and International Affairs at S&P Global, Cuban-American diplomat and the former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico and Ukraine, addressed an elite gathering of energy leaders, policy-makers, and strategists, laying out a stark but pragmatic vision of a world in flux, one where energy dynamics and geopolitical fault lines are no longer separate conversations, but deeply intertwined.
From the Gulf to Ukraine
In a series of engaging sideline discussions and his keynote address, Pascual stressed that energy markets cannot be viewed in isolation from global geopolitics.
He warned of eroding U.S. credibility and the weakening of long-standing international alliances, citing this trend as a key force behind growing global polarization. The world, he said, is now increasingly shaped by transactional diplomacy and short-term victories rather than enduring multilateral solutions.
On the ongoing conflict in Gaza and heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, Pascual pointed to the growing unpredictability and the need for long-term strategic thinking, warning that any solution rooted only in short-term gains would likely fail to produce lasting peace.
Addressing the war in Ukraine, Pascual — who previously served as the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine — was blunt: 'There's no viable peace on the horizon.' He criticized the tendency to rush negotiations without first addressing fundamental concerns like security guarantees and post-war reconstruction.
Strategic Patience Amid Shifting Alliances
Turning his gaze back to the Gulf, Pascual explored the role of Saudi Arabia in shaping regional stability. While there are signs of economic optimism and diplomacy, he questioned whether these can evolve into lasting peace frameworks.
On the Iran–U.S. nuclear negotiations, Pascual remained cautiously skeptical. "Nobody wants war — not Iran, not the U.S., not the Gulf countries. But a quick deal is unlikely," he said. He emphasized that the Gulf states' involvement and their willingness to engage Iran could shape the eventual outcome.
