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OPINION: Retailleau believes he is the new hope for the French centre-right, he might be its doom

The French centre-right changes leaders as frequently as it changes names. According to Les Républicains, or whatever the movement is fleetingly called, each new beginning promises the resurrection of 'Gaullism' as France's dominant political force. The latest Messiah of the centre-right is Bruno Retailleau, 64, who started in politics as an anti-Gaullist and an extreme anti-European nationalist. When talking about immigration and security, he sounds more like Marine Le Pen than Jacques Chirac or even Nicolas Sarkozy. On Sunday Retailleau was elected as president of Les Républicains with a crushing 74 percent of the votes of the 120,000 party members. He will almost certainly be the party's candidate in the First Round of the next presidential election in 2027. Advertisement Although a fierce anti-Macronist, he gambled his future last year on a decision to bail out the President and join the Centre and Centre-right coalition governments headed by Michel Barnier and then by François Bayrou. As interior minister, he has talked a very tough game without achieving a great deal (so far). The talk has been enough to promote him to third position in last weekend's Ipsos league table of political popularity. With a 28 percent approval rating, he trails only the far-right leaders, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella (who are disturbingly high on 34 percent). Could Bruno Retailleau be the next President of the Republic? I doubt it but the field for 2027 is wide open. All could be decided, in effect, by a handful of votes in Round One. READ ALSO Who's who in France's 2027 presidential election race Le Pen, or Bardella if she remains banned, will top the first-round poll two years from now. Whoever snatches second place has a good chance of defeating either of them in the run-off – just as the centrist candidate came from behind to defeat the pro-Russian Far Right in the Romanian presidential election last Sunday. The problem for Retailleau is reaching Round Two. He is mostly chasing the same votes as Le Pen. His only notable speaking points are far right speaking points: immigration, crime, the droit du sol or citizenship rights of children born in France. He is against all three. In his leadership contest with the Les Républicains' parliamentary leader Laurent Wauquiez, his main argument was: 'I am more anti-immigrant than thou'. The only other issue was Retailleau's bold decision last year to join the Barnier and Bayrou governments – something that Wauquiez had opposed. There was almost no discussion on the economy, Donald Trump, the Ukraine war, Europe, education or health. That was not what the 120,000 paid-up members of Les Républicains (LR) wanted to hear about. The rest of the Centre and Centre-right electorate is a different matter. The old Gaullist movement sprawled over the right and centre-ground of French politics. Through shifting alliances with more economically liberal and more enthusiastically European parties, it dominated the right-hand side of French politics for sixty years from 1958 to 2017. Advertisement Since 2017, the rise of Le Pen's Far Right and Emmanuel Macron's Centre has squeezed the centre-right into a quarrelsome minority in a political landscape split three-ways between Far Right, Centre and Left. The demise of Gaullism was partly the fault of a series of absurd internal quarrels and corruption scandals involving centre-right leaders from Jacques Chirac to Nicolas Sarkozy and François Fillon. LR leaders including Retailleau believe – or say that they believe – that this is an aberration or passing nightmare. Popular support for the centre-right is the best guarantee of tradition and stability. 'Macronism,' Retailleau said last week, 'Will not survive Macron'. Neither he nor Wauqiuez made any attempt to appeal to the more moderate LR members in their campaign. They know that what remains of the centre-right is much more Right than the Centre. And yet there is little sign that middle-class Le Pen/ Bardella, ex-centre-right voters are ready to return en masse to Les Républicains. An opinion poll by Harris Interactive on Tuesday put Retailleau's chances in 2027 in perspective. If the first round of the presidential election was held now, Le Pen/Bardella would get 31 percent of the vote and Macron's first Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe 21 percent. Retailleau would come fourth on 12 percent, behind the likely hard left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon on 14 percent. Advertisement That is a pretty good score for Retailleau. In the first round of the 2022 election, the candidate of Les Républicains, Valérie Pecresse got only 4.8 percent of the vote. All the same, there is a huge amount of ground for Retailleau to make up to reach the run-off two years from now. He needs to attract both Le Pen voters and Macron/Edouard Philippe voters. He has some credibility on security and migration issues; he has nothing to say (so far) on the economy or Europe or international affairs. Wauquiez, if he had he won, might have pulled the centre-right out of Bayrou's minority coalition and brought down the government. Retailleau says that he will remain as interior minister. That implies that the shaky ruling alliance – if it survives – will run at least three rival presidential candidates in the early stages of the 2027 campaign. There will be Edouard Philippe, formerly of the liberal wing of the LR; Gabriel Attal, ex-centre-left and leader of Macron's party, Renaissance; and almost certainly Retailleau as candidate of the ex-Gaullist centre-right. Logically, the ruling coalition should organise a primary to coalesce behind one candidate to ensure that the Left and Far Right do not dispute Round Two. That is what Edouard Philippe has proposed. For Les Républicains that would amount to an admission that they have been swallowed up by a Maconist centre that they detest. Gaullism would have committed suicide. In truth, the crushing victory of the hard right Retailleau last weekend suggests that the old broad church of Gaullism no longer exists: not in the Républicains party at any rate. If all three candidates stay in the first round race to the end, the 'golden ticket' of a place in Round Two against the Far Right would probably go to Edouard Philippe. Probably but not certainly. A surge in support for the Left or centre-right could produce a three or four-way dead heat for second place. A few thousand votes might be enough to tip a left-wing candidate or Bruno Retailleau into the run-off. Le Pen/Bardella v the Left. The far-right would win. Le Pen/Bardella v Retailleau. Retailleau, the ungaullist Gaullist, would win. It seems inconceivable that France will end up in 2027 with a choice between the Far Right and the hard right, leaving 60 percent of the electorate unrepresented in Round Two. Inconceivable, yes. Unlikely, very. Impossible, no.