15-05-2025
How 600,000-mile-long solar eruption could impact Earth
In a post on X, formerly Twitter , aurora chaser Jure Atanackov predicted that the full force of this eruption could trigger a severe or even extreme geomagnetic storm, the highest level on official rating systems. Stunning video recorded by NASA 's solar observation satellites shows the moment that filaments of plasma 75 times larger than Earth peeled away from the sun in a pair of sweeping 'wings'. Most of the material was shot out of the sun's north pole, so it will mostly avoid Earth.
Jake Foster, astronomer at the Royal Observatory Greenwich, told MailOnline: 'Loops of hot plasma can sprout up from the Sun's surface, following along its magnetic field lines, and occasionally they break free and shoot off into space at high speeds.' Sometimes this triggers an event called a coronal mass ejection, a wave of plasma and magnetic fields which is launched into space. It is the arrival of these coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which trigger geomagnetic storms and enhanced auroral activity on Earth. As astronomers observed, this is exactly what happened on Tuesday as two huge filaments became unstable and collapsed, triggering a huge CME.
As the filament eruption tore away from the sun's surface, eagerly-watching aurora chasers were amazed by the sheer scale of the blast. Mr Atanackov wrote in a post on X that the blast 'dwarfs all the filament eruptions we have seen recently.' Likewise, Northern Lights photographer Vincent Ledvina said: 'Not sure what to call this eruption, maybe the "bird-wing" or "angel-wing" event? Either way, it is truly something to witness! Look at how large the blast is off the Sun's northern hemisphere.' In her solar forecast, space weather physicist Dr Tamitha Skov reported a 'massive dual filament launch that could give Earth a glancing blow.'
When a filament eruption escapes the solar surface, it leaves behind a cool 'scar' on the sun, which shows up as a dark region in solar imaging cameras. While it initially appeared that most of the blast had been directed northward, away from Earth, the remains scars suggested that some of the eruption could be coming our way. Dr Skov said: 'You'd think this was just going northward. But, believe it or not, the scar from this thing as it lifted off the sun makes us think that maybe there's part of this that's Earth-directed.'
It is considered likely that part of the CME or its wake will hit Earth tomorrow, causing a minor geomagnetic storm and lingering effects for a few days. Mr Foster says: 'These eruptions are huge collections of high energy solar particles, so when they hit the Earth's atmosphere they can cause a few different effects. 'With enough energy, they have the potential to cause a geomagnetic storm, temporarily blocking out radio communications and satellite navigation in certain areas.
'On the more serious end of the scale, they can cause an overload to electrical infrastructure, damaging the power grid and railway lines, and potentially even sparking electrical fires.' Additionally, as charged particles from the sun arrive, they are channelled towards the poles by the planet's powerful magnetic fields. These particles then collide with nitrogen and oxygen in the air, transferring their energy into the gases and causing them to glow, in an effect we see as the aurora.
Since the Earth's magnetic fields protect us extremely well from these charged particles, auroras are only normally visible close to the magnetic poles. Although Dr Skov predicts a 20 per cent chance of a major storm occurring, the chances of significant geomagnetic activity are low. Stephen Dixon, Met Office spokesperson, told MailOnline: 'A coronal mass ejection could possibly glance the Earth later this evening and could lead to aurora being visible in northern Scotland, though there is low confidence in this. 'Should it occur, skies are relatively clear, but viewers might need to take a photo with a long exposure.'
