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Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
How the dismantling of Iran's regional proxies paved way for Israel's attack
Israel's offensive against Iran is the latest link in a chain of events triggered by the attack launched by Hamas from Gaza into Israel on 7 October 2023. All have successively weakened Tehran and, militarily at least, empowered Israel. Without each, it is difficult to see how the new offensive it launched directly against Iran on Friday might be possible. The first was the Israeli offensive in Gaza. This has now killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, but within weeks had militarily degraded Hamas sufficiently for the Islamist militant organisation to no longer pose a significant current threat to Israeli citizens. As Hamas was part of the so-called axis of resistance, a coalition of similar organisations across the Middle East assembled by Tehran over the last decade or so to project power across the region and to deter Israel from striking at Iran's nuclear programme, this had major regional implications. Then, in April last year, Israel bombed the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, killing seven people. In response, Iran attacked Israel directly for the first time, launching an ineffective barrage of drones. The conflict between Iran and Israel, long fought through proxies, assassinations and strikes away from Israeli soil, had now spilled into the open. By the autumn, with Hamas weakened, Israel could turn against Hezbollah, the Lebanese-based, Iran-supported group that was by far the most potent of the members of the axis of resistance. In September, Israel eliminated the entire leadership echelon of Hezbollah as well as most of its feared missile stockpile and invaded its heartland in southern Lebanon without meeting significant resistance. Even Hezbollah loyalists acknowledged it had suffered a swingeing defeat. Again, Iran launched another ineffective air offensive against Israel, which responded with airstrikes that wiped out much of Iran's air defence system, opening the way to Friday's wider attack. Equally consequentially, Hezbollah's sudden weakness meant it was unable to come to the defence of the al-Assad regime in Syria, another crucial Iranian ally, when rebels there launched an offensive. The fall of Assad in December ended decades of close relations between Tehran and Damascus. This further weakened the crumbling axis of resistance, exposed Iranian proxies in Syria and meant Israeli warplanes could reach vulnerable targets in Iran more easily. With Iran-backed militias in Syria and in Iraq convinced that turning rhetorical threats to attack Israel into action was a poor idea, the Houthis in Yemen were left as the only remaining member of the axis of resistance still engaged in hostilities with Israel. They harassed shipping in the Red Sea but the ballistic missiles they lobbed hopefully at Tel Aviv could cause no significant strategic harm. Related: What has Israel hit in Iran and who were the generals and nuclear scientists killed? By early spring of this year, the decision of Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, to entrust Iran's security to its proxies looked a supreme miscalculation and Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, keen to exploit what might be a transient window of opportunity, began preparing the major offensive he has long hoped to launch. A deadline of April was missed, but not one set inadvertently by President Trump who allowed just 60 days for talks with Tehran to come to a new agreement on Iran's nuclear programme, which Israel claims was close to producing a nuclear weapon. That limit expired last week. Netanyahu told Iranians on Friday that he hoped Israel's continuing military operation in Iran will 'clear the path for you to achieve your freedom'. Even if Israel is not seeking to turn back the clock to years before the 1979 Iranian revolution, when the country was a close ally of Israel and of the US too, the nature of the targets Israeli planners chose may have the effect of at least dismantling the regime that has ruled ever since that seismic event. This is partly a consequence of the central role still played in Iran by a generation of men who began their careers in the aftermath of the fall of the Shah or even earlier. The first casualties on Friday included many senior officers who were among the earliest recruits to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which was founded in 1980 to protect the new rule of the radical clerics and then evolved into the beating ideological activist heart of the revolutionary project. Several were also veterans of the Iran-Iraq war, which lasted from 1980 to 1988 and which many historians regard as the crucible in which the current regime was forged. At least one of the nuclear scientists killed in the first wave of strikes was a veteran of the IRGC too. Ali Shamkhani, a senior aide to Khamenei who was targeted, had been an underground Islamist activist in the 1970s before filling a series of increasingly important roles. Khamenei himself came to power as the successor to the Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989 but began his activist Islamist career in the late 60s. It is extremely unlikely that, when the dust finally clears after this war, Iran reverts to a pro-Israeli or pro-US stance. But what does appear very probable is that the power of men who first overthrew the shah and then led the revolutionary regime over subsequent decades will be gravely, possibly fatally, weakened.
The Guardian
a day ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
Israel's attack on Iran has a real chance of bringing about regime change
Israel's offensive against Iran is the latest link in a chain of events triggered by the attack launched by Hamas from Gaza into Israel on 7 October 2023. All have successively weakened Tehran and, militarily at least, empowered Israel. Without each, it is difficult to see how the new offensive it launched directly against Iran on Friday might be possible. The first was the Israeli offensive in Gaza. This was bloody and costly, especially in Palestinian lives, but within weeks had degraded Hamas sufficiently for the Islamist militant organisation to no longer pose a significant current threat to Israeli citizens. As Hamas was part of the so-called axis of resistance, a coalition of similar organisations across the Middle East assembled by Tehran over the last decade or so to project power across the region and to deter Israel from striking at Iran's nuclear programme, this had major regional implications. Then, in April last year, Israel bombed the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, killing seven people. In response, Iran attacked Israel directly for the first time, launching an ineffective barrage of drones. The conflict between Iran and Israel, long fought through proxies, assassinations and strikes away from Israeli soil, had now spilled into the open. By the autumn, with Hamas weakened, Israel could turn against Hezbollah, the Lebanese-based, Iran-supported group that was by far the most potent of the members of the axis of resistance. In September, Israel eliminated the entire leadership echelon of Hezbollah as well as most of its feared missile stockpile and invaded its heartland in southern Lebanon without meeting significant resistance. Even Hezbollah loyalists acknowledged it had suffered a swingeing defeat. Again, Iran launched another ineffective air offensive against Israel, which responded with airstrikes that wiped out much of Iran's air defence system, opening the way to Friday's wider attack. Equally consequentially, Hezbollah's sudden weakness meant it was unable to come to the defence of the al-Assad regime in Syria, another crucial Iranian ally, when rebels there launched an offensive. The fall of Assad in December ended decades of close relations between Tehran and Damascus. This further weakened the crumbling axis of resistance, exposed Iranian proxies in Syria and meant Israeli warplanes could reach vulnerable targets in Iran more easily. With Iran-backed militias in Syria and in Iraq convinced that turning rhetorical threats to attack Israel into action was a poor idea, the Houthis in Yemen were left as the only remaining member of the axis of resistance still engaged in hostilities with Israel. They harassed shipping in the Red Sea but the ballistic missiles they lobbed hopefully at Tel Aviv could cause no significant strategic harm. By early spring of this year, the decision of Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, to entrust Iran's security to its proxies looked a supreme miscalculation and Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, keen to exploit what might be a transient window of opportunity, began preparing the major offensive he has long hoped to launch. A deadline of April was missed, but not one set inadvertently by President Trump who allowed just 60 days for talks with Tehran to come to a new agreement on Iran's nuclear programme, which Israel claims was close to producing a nuclear weapon. That limit expired last week. Netanyahu told Iranians on Friday that he hoped Israel's continuing military operation in Iran will 'clear the path for you to achieve your freedom'. Even if Israel is not seeking to turn back the clock to years before the 1979 Iranian revolution, when the country was a close ally of Israel and of the US too, the nature of the targets Israeli planners chose may have the effect of at least dismantling the regime that has ruled ever since that seismic event. This is partly a consequence of the central role still played in Iran by a generation of men who began their careers in the aftermath of the fall of the Shah or even earlier. The first casualties on Friday included many senior officers who were among the earliest recruits to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which was founded in 1980 to protect the new rule of the radical clerics and then evolved into the beating ideological activist heart of the revolutionary project. Several were also veterans of the Iran-Iraq war, which lasted from 1980 to 1981 and which many historians regard as the crucible in which the current regime was forged. At least one of the nuclear scientists killed in the first wave of strikes was a veteran of the IRGC too. Ali Shamkhani, a senior aide to Khamenei who was targeted, had been an underground Islamist activist in the 1970s before filling a series of increasingly important roles. Khamenei himself came to power as the successor to the Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989 but began his activist Islamist career in the late 60s. It is extremely unlikely that, when the dust finally clears after this war, Iran reverts to a pro-Israeli or pro-US stance. But what does appear very probable is that the power of men who first overthrew the shah and then led the revolutionary regime over subsequent decades will be gravely, possibly fatally, weakened.
The National
23-05-2025
- Politics
- The National
View from Tehran: Nuclear talks and policy shifts as Iran copes with changing region
On Sunday, ministers from Iran, Qatar and Oman met in buildings on the tree-lined streets of Tehran to work out details of next steps in the continuing nuclear talks with the US. The senior officials stepped out of the meeting to news that Steve Witkoff, Washington's chief negotiator in the talks, had given an interview in which he ruled out allowing Iran any uranium enrichment capacity in an agreement. That is a non-starter for Tehran. It was 'a strange interview', a senior Iranian official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. 'Enrichment will continue with or without a deal. He [Witkoff] has made negotiations more difficult.' Alongside a handful of foreign journalists, The National gained a rare press visa for Iran to attend a conference organised by the Institute for Political and International Studies, a think tank affiliated with Iran's Foreign Ministry. Banners for the Tehran Dialogue Forum swayed in the wind beside national flags along the capital's motorways. As it attempts to negotiate a new deal with the US, Iran is at the centre of enormous shifts taking place in the Middle East. Armed groups it supports in Lebanon, Gaza and Syria – the so-called axis of resistance – have been weakened, and the fall of Bashar Al Assad in Damascus means it has lost a key ally. At the same time, Israel – Tehran's arch enemy – has become increasingly isolated because of its continuing war in Gaza and the humanitarian crisis in the strip. Aware of US President Donald Trump's unpredictable character and keen to avoid more conflict, countries in the region, including Iran, appear keener than they have been in a long time to get on with each other. 'Of course, the region has reached this understanding that everything should be from within,' a deputy foreign minister of Iran, Saeed Khatibzadeh, told The National in an interview. 'Nothing from outside the region can be helpful.' Mingling with foreign delegations and journalists, Iranian diplomats wanted to send the message that they are ready to talk, while retaining negotiating positions they see as points of national pride. The conference guest list reflected Iran's foreign policy priorities. It included the foreign ministers of Iraq, Qatar and Tajikistan, as well as Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi, who is mediating the US-Iran talks. A large delegation from Afghanistan sauntered through the lobby of a five-star hotel. Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi insisted the government in Kabul was ready to be a 'point of convergence' for regional energy and reducing drug production. On the nuclear issue, though, negotiations are stumbling over enrichment, although both sides have agreed to a fifth round of talks due to take place in Rome on Friday. Tehran is not seeking a nuclear weapon, Iranian officials insist. It wants to retain enrichment capacity, possibly with limitations, for what it says are agricultural and scientific purposes. The US fears any enrichment could lead to Iran developing nuclear weapons. 'If your real concern is the militarisation of our programme, the solution is very easy,' a second senior Iranian official said, on condition of anonymity. 'But if you have a hidden agenda and you want to deprive Iran of scientific achievements, you will definitely not succeed in your endeavour.' Tehran is an alluring, exhausting city. The elegant greenery that lines nearly every street provides some respite from the heavy traffic and early summer heat. Despite significant global isolation, life goes on. Billboards carry advertisements for heavy machinery, banks and red pesto alongside images commemorating late president Ebrahim Raisi or the axis of resistance. Mr Raisi's death a year ago in a helicopter crash prompted a snap election that brought to power Masoud Pezeshkian, who is widely seen as a reformist. At the same time, Iran's leaders are aware that the country needs sanctions relief to help solve some damaging problems, including soaring inflation. Greater ability to use its wealth of oil and gas resources would help to relieve water and power shortages. While the US has presented the nuclear talks as an opportunity for Tehran, Iranian analysts point out in private that the current political environment in the country – with a reformist President willing to negotiate – is an opening for the West, too. Apparently contradictory US positions on the talks could be a negotiating strategy to seal a deal while the notoriously mercurial US President is focused on the issue, analysts say. 'Perhaps also this staunch position from Witkoff – saying zero enrichment is what we want – is a way to raise the stakes for there to be a compromise solution between the two,' Maria Luisa Fantappie, a programme head at the Rome-based Institute of International Affairs, told The National after attending the Tehran conference. With its relations with the US and Europe uncertain, Tehran is watching developments across the region closely. From here, the view is very different to those in many other countries. Some points are not new: the belief that Israel is the main threat; its wariness of western intentions. Other views are becoming increasingly prominent. The Foreign Ministry – one of many institutions in Iran's complex network of state organs – believes the country needs more engagement with its neighbours and 'balanced relations' with global powers, both East and West. 'Rather than persisting with threat-based approaches, we must adopt opportunity-based ones and promote economic interdependence as a sustainable foundation for regional peace and stability,' Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a speech at the Tehran Dialogue Forum. That means trade, joint investments, technology transfers and major infrastructure projects, he said, without naming specifics. Rapid societal and economic reforms undertaken by Arab states in the Gulf region have pushed Iran towards working alongside, rather than against, its neighbours, analysts say. 'There is a 'Gulf effect' on them,' Ms Fantappie said. 'That creates a situation around the neighbourhood that forces them, in some way, to rethink their tools of foreign policy, and also to rethink the way in which they balance diplomacy as opposed to aggressive actions.' Iranian officials appear wary of Mr Trump's recent visit to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, and of Washington encouraging increasing engagement with Israel. In Riyadh, Mr Trump compared progress in the countries he visited to what he described as the 'corruption' provoking 'instability' in the region from Iran. In Tehran, Mr Pezeshkian accused the US of trying to pit countries in the region against each other by selling weapons to some while villainising Tehran. Mr Trump's Gulf tour 'was obviously planned for political goals, a political agenda was the main goal of this trip. It was planned in that way, everything was telling, the speeches there, commenting, the format,' Mr Khatibzadeh, the Iranian deputy foreign minister, told The National. American and European interventions have not been 'for the good or best of the region', but nations should be allowed to work with them if they want to, he said. 'At the same time, the region is definitely entitled to interact with others,' Mr Khatibzadeh added. 'But they are smart enough to understand that those who are perpetrating these sorts of things are not for the best of the region.' Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Qalibaf accused Israel of trying to engage 'some Middle Eastern countries' and 'position itself as part of a solution' by offering economic opportunities to neighbours. He characterised the conflict between Iran and the 'Zionist regime' – how many in Iran refer to Israel – as a key axis in geopolitical rifts. Iran's regional military sway has diminished over the past 18 months as a result of attacks by Israel and the fall of Mr Al Assad. Lebanese group Hezbollah has lost its military and political leaders, including long-time secretary general Hassan Nasrallah. Iran-backed troops and Iranian military and political advisers have left Syria, and Tehran is in no hurry to rebuild ties with Damascus, a senior Iranian Foreign Ministry envoy said at the Tehran forum. Iran believes instability in the region can be prevented through the creation of a Palestinian state, he added. But unlike many Arab countries, Iran rejects the idea of creating a Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders, alongside an Israeli state, and wants a referendum with the 'native residents of Palestine – Muslims, Christians and Jews' to 'determine the future political system of their homeland', Mr Araghchi said, without defining who would qualify. Mr Qalibaf, a conservative politician who was formerly mayor of Tehran, suggested Israel's continued presence would provoke more conflict. Israel is 'an occupation-based regime that leads the region to resistance', he said.
CNA
08-05-2025
- Politics
- CNA
Israel threatens to do to Iran what it has done to Hamas
JERUSALEM: Israel will do to Iran what it has done to Hamas in Gaza, Defence Minister Israel Katz warned on Thursday (May 8), days after an attack on Ben Gurion airport by Iran-backed Houthi rebels. "I warn ... Iranian leaders who finance, arm and exploit the Houthi terrorist organisation: the proxy system is terminated and the axis of evil has collapsed," Katz said in a statement. "You are directly responsible. What we have done to Hezbollah in Beirut, to Hamas in Gaza, to (now ousted Syrian president Bashar) Assad in Damascus, we will do to you in Tehran too." Along with Hezbollah and Hamas, Yemen's Houthi rebels are part of Iran's "axis of resistance" against Israel and its ally, the United States. Hezbollah began launching attacks in October 2023 in support of its ally Hamas following its unprecedented attack on southern Israel. In a year of hostilities that ended with a November truce, the Israeli army all but crushed Hezbollah, while Hamas's leadership has been decimated in the war sparked by the Oct 7 attack. The Houthis attacked Israel's main airport near Tel Aviv on Sunday, part of a campaign against Israel the rebels say is in support of Palestinians in Gaza. Iran has denied supporting the Houthis in their attack. Israel hit back against the Houthis with strikes on the airport in the rebel-held capital Sanaa as well as on power stations in and around the capital. The US and the Houthis reached a ceasefire agreement, mediator Oman announced on Tuesday, saying the deal would ensure "freedom of navigation" in the Red Sea where the rebels have attacked shipping. The Houthis have vowed to continue targeting Israel and Israeli ships in the Red Sea despite the deal that ended weeks of intense US strikes on Yemen.
