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How Britain's biggest companies are preparing for a Third World War
How Britain's biggest companies are preparing for a Third World War

Telegraph

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • Telegraph

How Britain's biggest companies are preparing for a Third World War

The year is 2027 and a major global conflict has erupted. Perhaps China has launched an attempted invasion of Taiwan, or Russian forces have crossed into the territory of an eastern European Nato country. Whatever the case, Justin Crump's job is to advise big companies on how to respond. And with tensions rising, a growing number of chief executives have got him on speed dial. The former Army tank commander, who now runs intelligence and security consultancy Sibylline, says his clients range from a top British supermarket chain to Silicon Valley technology giants. They are all drawing up plans to keep running during wartime, and Crump is surprisingly blunt about their reasoning: a global conflict may be just two years away. 'We're in a world which is more dangerous, more volatile than anything we've seen since the Second World War,' he explains. There are lots of crises that can happen, that are ready to go. 'Chief executives want to test against the war scenario, because they think it's credible. They want to make sure their business can get through that environment.' The year of worst case scenarios He rattles off a series of smouldering international issues – any one of which could ignite the global tinderbox – from Iran's nuclear ambitions, to China's threats to Taiwan, to Vladimir Putin's designs on a Russian sphere of influence in Ukraine and beyond, as well as Donald Trump's disdain for the post-1940s 'rules-based international order'. Against this backdrop, planning for war is not alarmist but sensible, Crump contends. With all these issues building, 2027 is viewed as the moment of maximum danger. 'The worst case scenario is that all these crises all overlap in 2027,' he explains. 'You've got the US midterms, which will have taken place just at the start of that year, and whatever happens there will be lots of upset people. It's also the time when a lot of the economic disruption that's happening now will have really washed through the system, so we'll be feeling the effects of that. And it's also too early for the change in defence posture to have really meant anything in Europe.' Putin and Xi Jinping, the president of China, are acutely aware of all this, he says, and may conclude that they should act before the US and Europe are more fully rearmed in 2030. 'In their minds now, the clock is ticking,' he adds. He also points to major British and Nato military exercises scheduled to take place in 2027, with American forces working to a 2027 readiness target as well. 'There's a reason they're doing it that year – because they think we have to be ready by then,' Crump says. 'So why shouldn't businesses also work off the same thinking and plan for the same thing?' He is not alone in arguing that society needs to start expecting the unexpected. In 2020, the Government established the National Preparedness Commission to ensure the UK was 'significantly better prepared' for the likes of floods, power outages, cyber attacks or wars. It has urged households to keep at least three days' worth of food and water stockpiled, along with other essential items such as a wind-up torch, portable power bank, a portable radio, spare batteries, hand sanitiser and a first aid kit. 'In recent years a series of high-impact events have demonstrated how easily our established way of life can be disrupted by major events,' the commission's website says – pointing to the coronavirus pandemic, recent African coups, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and turmoil in the Middle East. Britain is also secretly preparing for a direct military attack by Russia amid fears that it is not ready for war. Officials have been asked to update 20-year-old contingency plans that would put the country on a war footing after threats of attack by the Kremlin. All of this has led major businesses to conclude that perma crisis is the new normal, Crump says. In the case of Ukraine, Western sanctions on Russia forced companies to choose between continuing to operate heavily-constrained operations in Russia, selling up, or walking away entirely. Crump recalls speaking to several clients including a major energy company in the run-up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He and his colleagues urged the business to evacuate their staff, at a point when it was still received wisdom that Putin wouldn't dare follow through with his threats. 'I had almighty arguments with some people in the run-up, because I was very firmly of the view, based on our data and insights, that the Russians were not only invading, but they were going for the whole country. But other people in our sector were saying, 'No, it's all a bluff'. 'Their team came to me afterwards and said: 'After that call, we were convinced, and we got our people out'. They got a lot of grief for that at the time, from people who were saying it was all nonsense. 'But then on the day of the invasion, they told me they got so many calls actually saying 'thank you for getting us out'.' Yet even in Ukraine, much of which remains an active war zone, life must go on – along with business. 'I've been to plenty of war zones,' says Crump. 'And people are still getting on with their lives, there's still stuff in supermarkets, and things are being made in factories – but that certainly all gets a lot more difficult.' In the case of a major British supermarket, how might executives plan for, say, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? The first question is how involved the UK expects to be, says Crump. But if Britain, as might be expected, sides with the US at least in diplomatic terms, 'we're not buying anything from China'. That immediately has implications for a company's supply chains – are there any parts of the supply chain that would be crippled without Chinese products? But as the recent cyber attack on Marks & Spencer has demonstrated, attacks on critical digital infrastructure are also a major risk to supermarkets in the event of a war with China or Russia. 'If you look at a retailer, the vulnerability is not necessarily whether or not they can transport stuff to the shop, even in a war zone,' says Crump. 'The problem becomes when you can't operate your systems. 'If you can't take money at the point of sale, or if you have no idea where your stock is because your computer system has been taken down, you've got major problems and you can't operate your business.' Workforce gaps In a scenario where Britain becomes involved in a war itself, Crump says employers may also suddenly find themselves with gaps in their workforces. He believes things would need to get 'very bad indeed' for the Government to impose conscription, which applied to men aged 18-41 during the Second World War. But he points out that the calling up of British armed forces reservists would be very likely, along with the potential mobilisation of what is known as the 'strategic reserve' – those among the country's 1.8 million veterans who are still fit to serve. There are around 32,000 volunteer reservists and an undisclosed number of regular reserves, former regular members of the armed forces who are still liable to be called up. 'There's a big pool of people we don't tap at the moment who are already trained,' explains Crump. 'But there would be consequences if the entire reserve was called forward, which would have to happen if we entered a reasonably sized conflict. It would certainly cause disruptions. 'The medical services are hugely integrated with the NHS, for example, and we saw the effects of them being called forward with Iraq and Afghanistan.' Food supplies The sort of supermarket chaos that erupted during the Covid-19 pandemic would also return with a vengeance if a significant conflict broke out. During that crisis, grocers had to limit how many packs of loo rolls and cans of chopped tomatoes shoppers were allowed to take home, among other items, because of supply chain problems. 'If we're in a conflict, that sort of supply chain activity would increase,' notes Crump. 'So you don't necessarily have rationing imposed, but there might be issues with food production, delivery, payment and getting things to the right place. 'In a world where we don't have our own independent supply chains, we're reliant on a lot of very interconnected moving parts that have been enabled by this period of peace. 'We've never been in a conflict during a time where we've had 'just in time' systems.' Spanish blackouts: A dry run Crump brings up the recent blackouts in Spain and Portugal. British grocers initially thought their food supplies would be completely unaffected because truck loads of tomatoes had already made their way out of the country when the problem struck. But the vehicles were electronically locked, to prevent illegal migrants attempting to clamber inside when they cross the English Channel and could only be unlocked from Spain – where the power cuts had taken down computer systems and telecoms. 'People in Spain couldn't get online, so we had locked trucks full of tomatoes sitting here that we couldn't open because of technology,' Crump says. 'No one had ever thought, 'But what happens if all of Spain goes off the grid?' And I'm sure the answer would have been, 'That'll never happen' anyway.' This tendency towards 'normalcy bias' is what Crump tries to steer his clients away from. While it isn't inevitable that war will break out, or that there will be another pandemic, humans tend to assume that things will revert to whatever the status quo has been in their lifetimes, he says. This can mean we fail to take the threat of unlikely scenarios seriously enough, or use outdated ways of thinking to solve new problems. 'We've had this long period of peace and prosperity. And, of course, business leaders have grown up in that. Military leaders have grown up in it. Politicians have grown up in it. And so it's very hard when that starts to change. 'People have grown up in a world of rules. And I think people are still trying to find ways in which the game is still being played by those old rules.' Unsurprisingly, given his line of work, Crump believes businesses must get more comfortable contemplating the unthinkable. 'Go back a decade and most executives did not want to have a crisis because a crisis is bad for your career, so they didn't want to do a test exercise – because you might fail,' Crump adds. 'But the whole point is that you can fail in an exercise, because it's not real life.'

Disaster Preparedness: Practical Strategies for Business Continuity
Disaster Preparedness: Practical Strategies for Business Continuity

Associated Press

time6 days ago

  • Business
  • Associated Press

Disaster Preparedness: Practical Strategies for Business Continuity

With hurricane season approaching and climate-related disasters on the rise, organizations in sectors like manufacturing, energy, insurance, and law must be ready to respond—not react. This timely, solutions-focused webinar will walk you through the essential elements of disaster preparedness and business continuity planning, offering practical strategies to protect your people, property, and operations. Join experts from Antea Group as they share lessons learned from real-world events and guide you through actions you can take before a crisis hits to minimize downtime, reduce costs, and strengthen resilience. What You'll Learn: Please join us on June 18th at Noon CT! If you can't make the live broadcast, registering will also give you access to the on-demand recording about 2 hours after the presentation ends. Register Here! Visit 3BL Media to see more multimedia and stories from Antea Group

How to Make Your Business Unshakable in Uncertain Times
How to Make Your Business Unshakable in Uncertain Times

Entrepreneur

time20-05-2025

  • Business
  • Entrepreneur

How to Make Your Business Unshakable in Uncertain Times

What would happen if your entire business had to shut down tomorrow? Would you survive, or just hope for the best? Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own. In today's volatile and interconnected world, disruption is no longer an anomaly — it's an expectation. From cyber attacks and supply chain breakdowns to natural disasters and political instability, entrepreneurs must face a reality in which continuity is never guaranteed. This is where ISO 22301 — the international standard for business continuity management systems (BCMS) — becomes more than a compliance tool. It becomes a strategic framework to embed resilience into the DNA of your business. For entrepreneurs and startups, the misconception that business continuity is a luxury reserved for large corporations can be fatal. In truth, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are more vulnerable to disruption and less likely to recover without a structured plan. ISO 22301 offers a practical, scalable and systematic approach that empowers entrepreneurs to safeguard not only operations but also reputation, stakeholder confidence and long-term viability. Related: Do You Have a 'Business Continuity Plan'? What is business continuity? Business continuity is the capability of an organization to continue the delivery of products and services at acceptable predefined levels following a disruptive incident. It's not just about recovering from catastrophe — it's about sustaining operations, maintaining trust and preventing losses during times of uncertainty. Whether you run a tech startup, a creative agency or a food business, your continuity depends on several interconnected resources: people, technology, suppliers, customer relationships and regulatory compliance. A disruption in one can compromise the others. Business continuity ensures your operations are designed to resist and recover from such disruptions in a timely and controlled manner. Why ISO 22301 matters to entrepreneurs ISO 22301 defines the requirements for a business continuity management system, providing a framework that is flexible, scalable and repeatable. It ensures that you don't just react to crises — you anticipate, prepare and adapt with intent. As an entrepreneur, your time and resources are limited. ISO 22301 helps you focus those resources strategically by identifying critical business functions and the resources they depend on, assessing risks and impacts related to disruptions, establishing continuity plans with clear responsibilities and protocols, and creating a culture of resilience through structured training and awareness. It also aligns with investor expectations, builds customer trust and may lower insurance premiums — turning resilience into a competitive advantage. Starting with the right scope The first step is defining the scope of your system. You don't need to apply ISO 22301 to your entire operation from day one. Focus on your core revenue-generating activities. If you're a retailer, your focus might be fulfillment and supplier coordination. If you're a consultancy, it could be continuity of client delivery and data access. A narrow, focused scope ensures relevance, feasibility and high impact. Related: 4 Ways to Prepare Now so Your Business Survives the Unexpected Later Real-world example: The coffee shop owner who didn't panic Consider a small café in a busy city that built its reputation on personalized service and high customer retention. When a sudden water pipe burst and shut the premises down for two weeks, it could have spelled disaster. But because the owner had previously thought through basic business continuity steps — like identifying an alternate location, maintaining a digital customer list and training staff for mobile service — the café was able to operate temporarily from a pop-up space nearby. Regulars were notified, orders were prepped offsite, and loyalty was preserved. This wasn't ISO 22301 in full form, but it demonstrated the principles in action: Anticipate what might go wrong, identify what's critical, and prepare to adapt. Now imagine the same mindset formalized, structured and applied to all vital operations through ISO 22301. That's the power entrepreneurs can harness. Business impact analysis: Mapping what matters With your scope defined, the next step is a Business Impact Analysis (BIA). This helps identify your most critical activities, acceptable downtime for each one and the resources — people, systems and suppliers — they require. The BIA guides Recovery Time Objectives (RTOs) and Recovery Point Objectives (RPOs), which determine how soon an activity must be restored and what data can be lost without significant damage. For example, if customer communication is key to your business model, your RTO might be just a few hours, and your RPO for client data might be near zero. These parameters influence your readiness. Risk assessment: What could go wrong? ISO 22301 encourages you to conduct a risk assessment — a practical look at threats like cyber attacks, supply shortages, illness or unavailability of key personnel, and changes in local regulation or environment. By understanding the likelihood and potential impact of each, you can prioritize prevention and response rather than react under pressure. Continuity strategies and action plans From this foundation, you develop real-world strategies to ensure resilience, including backup suppliers or service partners, cloud-based data access, remote work protocols and step-by-step emergency playbooks. The result is a Business Continuity Plan (BCP) — a clear, documented, and tested guide for how to respond under pressure. ISO 22301 is not just about documentation; it's about embedding continuity into daily operations. That means training your team, simulating disruption scenarios and tracking performance while refining the system regularly. Over time, continuity becomes part of your business culture — not a dusty binder. Like any good system, ISO 22301 follows the PDCA cycle (Plan-Do-Check-Act). This ensures your continuity strategy evolves alongside your business. Whether it's onboarding new staff, expanding operations or entering new markets, the BCMS should reflect real-time conditions and priorities. Related: 4 Steps You Need to Follow to Make It Through Any Crisis With Your Company Intact The entrepreneurial edge Entrepreneurs thrive on adaptability. But adaptability without structure can lead to chaos under pressure. ISO 22301 gives you the structure to adapt intentionally — with systems, not scramble. It transforms uncertainty into preparation, turning resilience from a reaction into a strategic asset. That café owner didn't just save a business; he protected relationships, reputation and growth. Business continuity is not about expecting disaster. It's about designing resilience. ISO 22301 offers entrepreneurs a clear, scalable framework to ensure that what you've built can withstand the unexpected.

ADCMC launches ‘Abu Dhabi Standard for Healthcare Business Continuity' to enhance emergency medical service operations
ADCMC launches ‘Abu Dhabi Standard for Healthcare Business Continuity' to enhance emergency medical service operations

Zawya

time08-05-2025

  • Health
  • Zawya

ADCMC launches ‘Abu Dhabi Standard for Healthcare Business Continuity' to enhance emergency medical service operations

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates: The Emergencies, Crises and Disasters Management Centre - Abu Dhabi (ADCMC), in collaboration with the Department of Health – Abu Dhabi (DoH), officially launched the 'Abu Dhabi Standard for Healthcare Business Continuity' during the Annual Business Continuity and Alternative National Service Forum – Murona, held at Erth Hotel, Abu Dhabi. The initiative is a key progress of Abu Dhabi's ongoing efforts to position itself as a global leader in the implementation of business continuity practices. It lays down a comprehensive and detailed framework aimed at strengthening the business continuity management system for healthcare services across the Emirate. The benchmark will also help Supporting healthcare sector resilience by minimising the impact of disruptions, and safeguarding patient safety while facilitating seamless and uninterrupted service delivery. Furthermore, it ensures the availability of essential healthcare services at all times, as well as full compliance with regulatory and legislative requirements. The standard is tailored to ensure the continuity of healthcare and emergency medical service operations across the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, fostering an integrated, patient-centric care system. It primarily focuses on driving timely and uninterrupted response to critical emergencies through the seamless coordination of resources and expertise. In addition, it aims to minimise service disruptions stemming from emergencies, crises, and disasters. This is essential to enhance the safety and well-being of patients, visitors, and healthcare professionals, while strengthening service continuity across the Emirate, right from pre-hospital services to diagnostics, and treatment. His Excellency Matar Saeed Al Nuaimi, Director General of ADCMC, reaffirmed the Centre's unwavering commitment to advancing the emergency, crisis, and disaster management system, as well as elevating the resilience and sustainability of the Emirate's healthcare sector. His Excellency emphasised the need to establish comprehensive, integrated standards that ensure both essential service continuity and patient safety under all circumstances. H.E. Al Nuaimi also stated that the initiative aligns with the Centre's strategic vision to enhance Abu Dhabi's preparedness for emergencies and crises, further solidifying its position as a global leader in this critical domain. His Excellency further stated: 'The health and well-being of the population remain a top priority for the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, aligning with the government's aim to provide an exceptional quality of life for all residents and ensure the continuity of essential healthcare services. Achieving this exemplary vision necessitates strict compliance with the regulatory and legislative frameworks, as well as the effective implementation of key requirements by all stakeholders within the healthcare sector. In such a scenario, it is also essential to proactively identify and manage strategic risks at the Emirate level, by understanding their potential impact on healthcare, reinforcing both social and economic stability.' His Excellency also eemphasised the newly introduced standard's critical role in enhancing the healthcare sector's capacity, and establishing a flexible business continuity management system to ensure the sustainability of healthcare services, even during emergencies. H.E. Al Nuaimi remarked that such a system empowers healthcare providers to effectively adapt to evolving challenges and respond swiftly to a wide range of crisis situations. Noura Khamis Al Ghaithi, Undersecretary of DoH said: 'Abu Dhabi has made remarkable strides in strengthening the readiness of its healthcare ecosystem, ensuring the sustainability and continuity of its services in times of crisis. Collaboration, joint efforts, and integration between all stakeholders have played a vital role in achieving the Emirate's milestones in that regard. Today, Abu Dhabi proudly ranks among the world's most innovative and resilient healthcare systems in emergency preparedness and response. This achievement is no coincidence, but a direct result of our wise leadership's steadfast support and guidance in prioritising the community's health and safety above all. Through coordinated efforts to drive innovation, harness the latest technologies, and continuously advance infrastructure and regulatory frameworks, Abu Dhabi continues to set a distinguished global example.' H.E. added: 'We are proud of the collaboration between the Department of Health – Abu Dhabi, the Abu Dhabi Public Health Centre, and the Abu Dhabi Emergency, Crisis and Disaster Management Centre in launching the Abu Dhabi Business Continuity Standard for Heathcare. This initiative is designed to further strengthen the readiness of healthcare facilities across the Emirate, ensuring the uninterrupted delivery of care services, enhancing integration among key stakeholders, unifying response frameworks, and bolstering operational resilience to enable faster recovery from crisis, all without compromising the quality of healthcare services.' The Abu Dhabi Standard for Business Continuity in Healthcare Activities applies to all healthcare providers, based on the applicability of requirements to their specific operational environments and service providers. It also encompasses additional requirements for pre-hospital and critical care, as well as hospitals in general. The focus is primarily on the time taken to deliver relevant healthcare services, and the hospital's ability to respond to emergencies, crises, and disasters that may disrupt social systems. It also addresses critical incidents and emerging risks impacting the health of community members. In such instances, coordinated efforts are required to ensure that healthcare providers can respond effectively and mitigate adverse health outcomes in their facilities and across communities. Furthermore, the capability of the healthcare sector is determined by several factors such as the development of hospitals that empower healthcare professionals to deliver medical care focused on emergency and critical care, efficiently manage emergency calls and coordinate ambulance deployment. It is also dependent on the efficiency of emergency patient transportation service providers, multidisciplinary response teams that provide clinical interventions at the incident site, as well as medical hotlines that offer remote diagnosis and instructions to facilitate certain treatments. Non-emergency patient transport services for hospital transfers and discharges, along with a range of other resources, including personnel, skills, equipment, technology, materials, and information, also play a critical role in emergency and crisis situations. This also includes effective governance, which lays down the acceptable boundaries for healthcare conduct and practices. The Department of Health – Abu Dhabi recently inaugurated the Unified Medical Operations Command Centre (UMOC), the first of its kind globally. Operated by the Abu Dhabi Public Health Centre, in collaboration with a number of public and private sector healthcare entities, the Centre is designed to strengthen cooperation and coordination among all stakeholders. It serves as a central hub for emergency management, marking a major addition to the Emirate's healthcare sector and playing a vital role in safeguarding public health, enhancing emergency preparedness, and strengthening response capabilities ADCMC remains steadfast in its efforts to reinforce the Emirate's adaptability and preparedness to tackle future challenges through a range of forward-looking studies, research, and plans aimed at enhancing crisis response capabilities. These include joint drills and exercises with various public and private sector entities, as well as collaboration with partners to promote cooperation and knowledge exchange in the field of emergency and disaster management. ADCMC is also committed to developing infrastructure to ensure rapid and effective response to emergencies, crises, and disasters. About ADCMC: The Emergencies, Crises and Disasters Management Centre Abu Dhabi (ADCMC), established under Law No. 22 of 2019, issued by the late Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, aims to significantly boost the Emirate's preparedness for emergencies, crises and disasters. The Centre has devised plans, strategies and policies for disaster, emergency and crises management. It carries out studies, field trips, audits and evaluations to ensure that organisations are prepared to face challenges and recover immediately. The Centre further focusses on improving coordination and knowledge exchange with relevant authorities and stakeholders. The key objective is to improve Abu Dhabi's capabilities to effectively handle crises and emergencies. Vision: Reinforcing crisis readiness. Mission: We Strive to develop Abu Dhabi's emergencies and crises management ecosystem through joint coordination to build and develop capabilities and leveraging leading technologies. Strategic Priorities: Ensured readiness of Emirate of Abu Dhabi in emergencies and crises Strong stakeholders' coordination and raising awareness Elevated ADCMC internal capabilities

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