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A tsunami that never ends? Study highlights a looming West Coast risk.
A tsunami that never ends? Study highlights a looming West Coast risk.

Yahoo

time24-05-2025

  • Science
  • Yahoo

A tsunami that never ends? Study highlights a looming West Coast risk.

The pressure keeps building below the Earth's surface off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, and a multi-layered disaster could strike at any time. A huge earthquake is brewing along the Cascadia Subduction Zone that could destroy bridges, reshape the landscape and trigger a massive tsunami. Scientists have known about the looming danger for years, but ongoing research keeps painting a clearer picture of what could happen. Among the dangers: A huge tsunami that will wash over costal areas and permanently flood them. The quake is a matter of if, not when, said Tina Dura, a geologist and professor of natural hazards at Virginia Polytechnic Institute in Blacksburg, Virginia. Recent research has focused on how climate change is increasing the impact of the earthquake on coastal areas that will suddenly sink. Researchers expect the quake will trigger an as much a 6-foot drop in some inland areas — then a massive tsunami will flood those regions, some permanently. "Imagine if, after Hurricane Katrina, after all the horrible things that happened, if we'd also lost big chunks of New Orleans and it never came back," said Diego Melgar, a professor at the University of Oregon and director of the Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center. The loss of swaths of land is just one of the surreal series of events that will occur when the earthquake eventually strikes, researchers say. This is a mix of bad and good news. The quake is a certainty, but could be hundreds of years off. While it could happen at any time, seismologists have estimated there is a 15% probability of a magnitude 8 in the next 50 years — a substantial risk for such a devastating scenario. Part of their confidence comes from the history of huge earthquakes in the region. "It could be tomorrow or decades from now. But geologically speaking, we're well within the window of possibility," Dura said. "The last event was in 1700, and paleoseismic records show these earthquakes recur roughly every 200 to 800 years. By 2100, there is a 30% chance of a large earthquake happening." Scientists have a clear picture of what will happen when the earthquake strikes. 'First would come extremely strong shaking – shaking that makes it difficult to stand or walk. This would probably last a minute or longer," said Melgar. Next, land along the coast would drop as much as six-and-a-half feet in places, probably within minutes. "Then there would probably be 30 to 40 minutes of seeming peace. But that's a false impression, because the tsunami is coming," he said. The resulting waves would be on the order of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that killed more than 50,000 people. The tsunami wave from an earthquake of this size could get to 90 or 100 feet tall, Melgar said. When the tsunami wave arrives at the shore "you get this massive surge that lasts for hours, sometimes days," Melgar said. This is where global warming comes in. Two things play a part in creating the catastrophe their research describes. First, the land would have dropped as much as six feet. At the same time, sea level rise from climate change means that the water which rushes in will cover more land. "You'd hope the tsunami could come to shore, then flow out again and the land would dry out. But there will be parts where it's now below sea level – the water won't flow back," said Melgar. A great Cascadia earthquake could instantly expand flood zones and double flood exposure for residents, structures, and roads. When combined with rising sea levels, these effects could render some coastal communities permanently uninhabitable, said Dura. Even if some areas along the coastline do dry out, they will be much closer to sea level and become susceptible to nuisance flooding if there's a particularly big storm or high tide. The West Coast is subject to numerous small earthquakes all the time, but they're not big enough to relieve the pressure that's being built up along the Cascadia fault line, Melgar said. So much energy has built up in the zone that even a magnitude 8 earthquake wouldn't relieve it. "Remember, the magnitude scale is logarithmic. So each increase in magnitude is an increase of 30 in terms of energy," he said. The great San Francisco earthquake of 1906 was a magnitude 8 temblor and it was devastating. "If we had one magnitude 8 quake here, we'd still have 29 to go to relieve the pressure," he said. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: A tsunami that never ends? Study highlights a West Coast risk.

Four Die as Floods Hammer Area North of Sydney, More Rain Coming
Four Die as Floods Hammer Area North of Sydney, More Rain Coming

Bloomberg

time23-05-2025

  • Climate
  • Bloomberg

Four Die as Floods Hammer Area North of Sydney, More Rain Coming

At least four people died and thousands are without power as severe storms lashed Australia's most populous state. Large swaths of New South Wales state remain on high alert for floods and extreme weather. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue into the weekend in central and southern regions, and coastal areas are bracing for wind gusts of up to 80 kilometers an hour, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. The weather system is now moving south with heavy rains in Sydney on Friday.

Climate change pushes homeowners insurance rates higher nationwide
Climate change pushes homeowners insurance rates higher nationwide

Entrepreneur

time09-05-2025

  • Business
  • Entrepreneur

Climate change pushes homeowners insurance rates higher nationwide

Homeowners across the United States face a growing financial burden as insurance rates continue to climb. This upward trend affects households in multiple regions, with climate change emerging as a... This story originally appeared on Due Homeowners across the United States face a growing financial burden as insurance rates continue to climb. This upward trend affects households in multiple regions, with climate change emerging as a significant factor behind the increases. Insurance companies adjust their risk assessments in response to the' rising frequency and severity of natural disasters, leading to higher premiums for property owners. The impact is felt in coastal areas, wildfire-prone regions, and even low-risk locations. Climate Change Impact on Insurance Markets The insurance industry responds to changing weather patterns by reassessing its exposure to climate-related risks. More frequent hurricanes along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, intensifying wildfires in western states, and increased flooding nationwide have created new challenges for insurers calculating appropriate premium rates. Some insurance companies have taken drastic measures beyond rate increases. In particularly high-risk areas, insurers have begun: Withdrawing coverage completely from specific markets Implementing stricter underwriting standards Requiring higher deductibles for weather-related claims This retreat from high-risk areas has left some homeowners scrambling to find coverage through state-backed insurers of last resort, which typically offer less comprehensive protection at higher costs. Regional Variations in Rate Increases The impact of rising insurance rates varies significantly by location. Florida homeowners have experienced steep increases, with average premiums in some coastal counties more than doubling over the past five years. California residents in wildfire zones face similar challenges, with some seeing annual premiums jump from $2,000 to over $5,000. Even states not typically associated with extreme weather are seeing increases. Midwestern homeowners face higher rates due to more frequent, severe storms and flooding events that were once considered rare. 'We're seeing a fundamental shift in how risk is calculated across the entire country,' said an insurance industry analyst. 'Areas that were once considered safe bets for insurers are now being reevaluated in light of changing climate patterns.' Financial Strain on Homeowners The rising cost of homeowners' insurance adds another layer of financial pressure for many Americans already dealing with inflation and higher mortgage rates. For some, particularly those on fixed incomes, these increases may force difficult decisions about housing affordability. First-time homebuyers are also feeling the pinch. The combination of higher insurance premiums with elevated home prices and mortgage rates has made homeownership less attainable for many. Some buyers find that insurance costs can add hundreds of dollars to their monthly housing expenses, sometimes derailing purchases altogether when the total exceeds their budget. The insurance component of homeownership is becoming a major consideration in the buying process, sometimes even determining where people can afford to live,' noted a real estate professional familiar with the trend. Adaptation Strategies Some homeowners are taking proactive measures to mitigate rising insurance costs. Home hardening—making properties more resistant to natural disasters—has become increasingly common. This includes installing impact-resistant roofing, creating defensible space in wildfire zones, and elevating homes in flood-prone areas. Insurance companies encourage these adaptations by offering discounts to homeowners who implement protective measures. However, the upfront costs of such improvements can be substantial, creating another financial hurdle for homeowners. Policy experts suggest that addressing climate change through both mitigation and adaptation will be necessary to stabilize insurance markets in the long term. Without coordinated action, the trend of rising rates and reduced coverage options is likely to continue, potentially creating a crisis in housing affordability and availability in high-risk areas. As this situation develops, homeowners are advised to review their policies carefully, consider available discounts for home improvements, and explore all coverage options to find the best protection at the most reasonable cost in this changing insurance landscape. The post Climate change pushes homeowners insurance rates higher nationwide appeared first on Due.

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