Latest news with #consumerConfidence
Arab News
2 days ago
- Business
- Arab News
Pakistan reaffirms commitment to macroeconomic stability as Ipsos survey shows rising consumer trust
KARACHI: Pakistan on Sunday reaffirmed its commitment to macroeconomic stability after Ipsos, a Paris-based global market research and consultation firm, said consumer confidence grew in the South Asian country in the second quarter of this year. The Ipsos survey revealed a significant surge in consumer confidence, with 42% of Pakistanis now believing the country is heading in the right direction — the highest level recorded in six years. Perceptions of the economy being strong reached their most favorable levels since August 2019, and optimism overtook pessimism that marked a key psychological shift among the population, according to the survey. Pakistan's Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said the 'encouraging' data reflected the success of his government's disciplined and targeted macroeconomic strategy implemented over the last 14 months. 'He highlighted that consumer confidence in making major purchases and investments has doubled compared to the same period last year, indicating that households are beginning to feel more secure in their financial prospects. Similarly, confidence in job security is now at its highest since 2019, a sign that labor market conditions are gradually stabilizing in response to pro-growth policies and reforms,' the finance ministry said. 'Senator Aurangzeb reaffirmed that the government remains committed to maintaining macroeconomic stability, accelerating structural reforms, and ensuring that economic growth translates into real and inclusive progress for all citizens.' The development comes amid stabilization of key economic indicators, including inflation, exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves and fiscal discipline, that has led a renewed public trust in Pakistan, which is currently on path to economic recovery under a $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) program secured in Sept. last year. Aurangzeb pointed out that this upswing in consumer confidence spans across urban and rural areas, and is particularly evident among youth and women, demonstrating the broad-based nature of the economic turnaround. He linked this optimism to sustained government efforts to create an enabling environment to enhance private sector growth, exports, social protection and financial inclusion. 'The findings of the IPSOS survey are a timely validation of Pakistan's economic direction and a clear signal that the country is on a steady path toward recovery and resilience,' the minister said.
Forbes
3 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Market Implications Of Tariff Litigation And AI Spending
Despite what could be a lengthy legal battle, tariffs are unlikely to be removed completely. The ... More sectoral tariffs were not challenged and President Trump added additional steel tariffs on Friday. The tariff dispute does have some crucial implications for future trade deals and the tax bill. US economic data releases, which generally raised estimates of second-quarter economic growth, combined with strong earnings from Nvidia (NVDA), helped send stocks higher for the week. Additionally, improvement in consumer confidence helped raise optimism that the tariff overhang doesn't need to sink the economy. A portion of the tariffs implemented by the Trump administration was briefly overturned, though it was reinstated pending appeal. After the rally last week, the S&P 500 sits only 3.8% below its mid-February high. The Magnificent 7, consisting of Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), NVIDIA (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Tesla (TSLA), has fared worse, and the group is 5.5% below its mid-December summit despite outperforming last week. Market Performance The betting odds of a recession in 2025 have continued to decline. This improvement aligns with the supportive economic data released last week, which increased the estimates of US second-quarter GDP growth. Furthermore, the Conference Board's survey of consumer confidence rose after plummeting in the wake of President Trump's tariff announcements on Liberation Day. Betting Odds Of US Recession In 2025 Notably, stocks hit their April low when betting odds of recession were at their highest. As one should expect, the S&P 500 index has risen as the odds of a recession have declined. Stocks & Recession Odds Nvidia did not disappoint investors with better-than-expected quarterly earnings and robust guidance for second-quarter revenue growth of 50% year-over-year. Some worries that the spending on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure had weighed on the mega-cap technology companies, as represented by the Magnificent 7. In early April, the group was 30% below their mid-December peak. Most of this decline has reversed due to lower odds of recession. Additionally, the first-quarter earnings season provided evidence of both continued spending on AI infrastructure and, more importantly, proof that companies were successfully monetizing these AI investments into tangible earnings growth. Magnificent 7: Q1 Estimated Earnings Growth Last week, the Court of International Trade (CIT) struck down the majority of the tariffs implemented by the Trump administration. The sectoral tariffs, for example, those on autos and steel, were not impacted by this ruling. The tariffs removed include the 10% universal tariff, the reciprocal tariffs, and the specific tariffs targeting China, Canada, and Mexico. According to Strategas, this would remove about $220 billion in tariffs, leaving just $40 billion of those implemented since the start of the year. Within less than 24 hours after the ruling, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit granted a stay. Therefore, the tariffs will remain in place, and the US will not yet need to refund the tariff revenue collected to date. This litigation could be a lengthy process, but even if the tariffs are struck down at the end of the litigation, President Trump has the legal authority to reimpose tariffs via alternative methods. However, these methods come with some additional limitations. According to Strategas, Sections 338 and 122 of the Tariff Act of 1930 can be utilized quickly to reinstate many of the tariffs that are currently at risk. Section 338 allows for tariffs of up to 50% that take effect 30 days after announcement, with no time limit on their duration. Section 122 gives the president the authority to impose tariffs of up to 15% with immediate effect, but these tariffs can only remain in place for 150 days without congressional approval. Furthermore, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 permits the imposition of tariffs following an investigation by the United States Trade Representative (USTR). It is doubtful that tariffs will go away unless President Trump decides that they are, but the utilization of other methods is more laborious, time-consuming, and comes with more limitations. Even though tariffs seem likely to remain a part of the investment landscape, regardless of the outcome of the litigation, there are some crucial implications of the additional uncertainty. On the margin, the possibility that the courts could remove the tariffs leaves the Trump administration with less leverage to negotiate trade deals with other countries. Countries may choose to stall and see what happens with the litigation. The G-7 meeting in June could provide some insight into whether any new deals are forthcoming. The tax bill passed by the US House of Representatives was debt-neutral if the revenue from the tariffs was included in the scoring. The risk to the tariff revenue may further complicate the Senate's deliberations in passing a version of the bill. Markets will remain on the tariffs, with markets watching for any changes in US policy and the progress of the legal challenge. Further, retaliation from or trade deals with other countries will be notable. The economic calendar has the critical monthly jobs report on Friday. Expectations are for nonfarm payroll job growth to slow to 125,000 from 177,000 in April. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2%. These forecasts are consistent with the weekly initial filings for unemployment benefits, which remain low and don't indicate a collapse in the labor market. Initial Jobless Claims Ongoing claims for unemployment benefits are rising, indicating that it is taking longer for those losing their jobs to find new employment. The labor market is showing signs of bending but not yet breaking. Continuing Claims Regardless of the outcome of the tariff litigation, tariffs are unlikely to be banished completely. To that point, President Trump imposed a 50% steel tariff late last Friday, and these sectoral tariffs are not part of the current legal challenge. Recent hard economic data, along with some soft data, such as consumer confidence, have raised optimism that US economic growth remains resilient. Furthermore, technology spending related to artificial intelligence continues, with the sector producing robust earnings growth. This week's jobs report will be another key indicator of the US economy's health.
Reuters
7 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Rupee to face mild pressure after dollar receives confidence boost
MUMBAI, May 28 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is poised to open slightly weaker on Wednesday, pressured by a recovery in the struggling U.S. dollar following better-than-expected consumer confidence data. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the local currency would open in the 85.38-85.40 range, compared to the close of 85.33 in the previous session. The rupee briefly climbed past the 85 level against the dollar on Monday, where it had to contend with hedging demand for the U.S. dollar. "It pays to play the 85–86 range on the dollar/rupee pair, regardless of the broader dollar trend," a currency trader at a bank said. With the pair expected to open near the midpoint of that range, the near-term bias remains broadly neutral, he added. The dollar index inched up in Asia, adding to Tuesday's 0.6% advance. The dollar index, down over 8% year-to-date on U.S. trade policy uncertainty and fiscal worries, managed to find support from the improvement in U.S. consumer confidence. The pullback in U.S. Treasury yields also helped. The dollar, in recent days, has been reacting negatively to the rise in yields that was sparked by worries around the U.S. fiscal deficit. On Tuesday, long-term U.S. yields declined, mirroring those in Japan. "The key immediate driver, both from an FX and rates perspective, was news the Japanese Ministry of Finance may adjust debt issuance following a sharp rise in longer-end Japanese yields," MUFG Bank said in a note. Japan will consider trimming issuance of super-long bonds in the wake of the recent surge in yields for the notes, two sources told Reuters on Tuesday, amid policymakers seeking to soothe market concerns about worsening finances. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 85.55; onshore one-month forward premium at 15 paise ** Dollar index up at 99.7 ** Brent crude futures up 0.6% at $64.5 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.46% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $186.9 million worth of Indian shares on May. 26 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $34.8 million worth of Indian bonds on May. 26
Bloomberg
28-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Gold Edges Higher After Loss With US Data, Trade Talks in Focus
Gold edged higher after a two-day decline, as the market remained in wait-and-see mode in spite of data showing improving economic sentiment and signs of progress in trade talks. Bullion traded near $3,309 an ounce — following a 1.3% loss on Tuesday — as US consumer confidence rebounded sharply in May from near a five-year low, signaling a more positive outlook for the economy and labor market. The dollar rose after the print, making gold more expensive for most buyers.
Bloomberg
27-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily: Eco and Trade Optimism
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: Wall Street kicked off the week with a rally in stocks as consumer confidence rebounded sharply while the US and the European Union sped up trade talks. A global surge in bonds also helped sentiment. As equities halted a four-day slide, the S&P 500 climbed 2%. Nvidia Corp. paced gains in megacaps ahead of its results. Treasuries got a boost, pushing the 30-year yield below 5% on signs Japan will be ready to calm jittery debt markets. The moves in the US extended after a sale of two-year notes was met with solid bidding metrics. The dollar rose against all developed-market currencies. President Donald Trump noted he was encouraged the EU is speeding up negotiations on trade, days after he said the bloc would face 50% tariffs if they fail to reach a deal with the US. Trump extended a deadline for those taxes to take effect to July 9 after a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Today's show features: Meghan Robson, Head of US Credit Strategy for BNP Paribas Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech Mark Gurman Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Deals Liana Baker Nate Rempe, President and Chief Executive Officer of Omaha Steaks
