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Crop Watch: Divergent pollination outlook for corn: Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, June 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. Crop Watch corn fields have notched their third consecutive week of improved health ratings, though some areas still need heat and sun for the crop to really take off.
The producers want their corn to be in the best possible state for pollination, a key yield-determining phase. The wide planting window plus cool, limiting temperatures after planting scatter likely pollination dates for the 11 Crop Watch corn fields all throughout July.
This means it is too early for a reliable pollination weather forecast and that good conditions now could easily change, come July.
As of Sunday, one producer (western Illinois) expected his corn to begin pollination in about two weeks. Three producers (Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska) target the three-week time frame.
Four producers (South Dakota, Western Iowa, Eastern Iowa, southeastern Illinois) see their fields pollinating in about a month. Pollination for the remaining three (North Dakota, Minnesota, Ohio) is likely five or more weeks out.
Weather-wise, the rest of June is seen as mostly favorable. Warm weather this week will offer a much-needed boost to crops, and a good portion of the Corn Belt has multiple chances for scattered rain showers.
Only a couple of producers said that rain is needed somewhat urgently. The others are in a good spot moisture-wise but will be counting on the predicted rains to maintain or improve crop conditions.
The 11 Crop Watch producers assign weekly condition scores to their corn and soybean fields using a scale of 1 to 5. The ratings are similar to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's system where 1 is very poor, 3 is average and 5 is excellent.
Unweighted, average corn conditions rose to 3.82 from 3.8 a week ago, and that is a better score than at this point last year. Ratings dropped in North Dakota as crops are stalled out in cool, cloudy weather, but the Nebraska and Ohio fields improved this week.
The 11-field soybean average comes in at 3.18, easily Crop Watch's worst-ever rating for the week. Ohio joined the ranks this week with a 1, pulling down the average along with North Dakota and southeastern Illinois, both of which also sit in the 1-range.
All three of those fields were extremely wet before and after planting, and cool, rainy weather has held back growth. The southeastern Illinois producer places 50% odds on his beans achieving average yields and 0% odds of near-record yields.
However, this week's 10-field average soybean rating without Ohio was unchanged on the week at 3.4. Health declines in Western Iowa and North Dakota were offset by improvements in South Dakota, Nebraska and southeastern Illinois.
The soybeans in Indiana have begun blooming, which signals the early reproductive phase. However, this will be a long, drawn-out process for the Crop Watch soybeans, and the yield potential will hinge mostly on late-summer rains.
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
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