Latest news with #currencies
Reuters
8 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
AFRICA-FX-Most currencies expected to be stable
NAIROBI, June 5 (Reuters) - The currencies of Kenya, Ghana, Uganda and Zambia are expected to be largely steady against the dollar in the next week to Thursday, traders said. Kenya's shilling is forecast to remain in tight ranges, as it has done since last year. The shilling traded at 129.00/50 to the U.S. currency on Thursday, the same level as at last Thursday's close. Ghana's cedi is expected to be broadly stable as increased dollar demand has brought a recent rally to a halt. LSEG data showed the cedi trading at 10.20 to the dollar on Thursday, unchanged from last Thursday. "The cedi's strong rally paused in the last week as demand for the greenback ramped up considerably. The pair has remained largely stable, however, as the central bank has upped its support," said Sedem Dornoo, a senior trader at Absa Bank Ghana. "We expect the pair to remain range-bound as the central bank continues to help clear the demand buildup through its daily auctions," he added. Uganda's shilling is seen little changed as traders wait for next week's budget. Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,631/3,641 to the dollar, compared to last Thursday's close of 3,630/3,640. "Ahead of (the) budget reading we normally see a sharp drop in activity because some players decide to play a waiting game to see what's in the budget," a trader said. Zambia's kwacha could draw support from lower oil prices and upcoming tax payments. On Thursday the kwacha was quoted at 26.35 from 26.90 a week ago. "There was a reduction in the price of diesel last week. Companies will also be paying Pay As You Earn and Withholding tax next week," one analyst said.
Bloomberg
13 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Emerging-Market Assets Extend Gains as Korean Rally Continues
Emerging-market stocks rose for a third consecutive session, with South Korean assets extending their world-beating gains after a presidential election. MSCI's EM stock gauge is heading for 2.4% gains in the past three days. An index of developing-nation currencies also edged higher as the dollar has remained under pressure from investors expecting a more dovish Federal Reserve after softer US employment data.
CNA
20 hours ago
- Business
- CNA
Most emerging market currencies set to hold on to gains
BENGALURU/JOHANNESBURG : Most emerging market currencies will hold the gains they have made this year or extend them against a retreating dollar in the next six months as traders ditch the U.S. exceptionalism trade that fuelled the greenback's dream run, a Reuters poll of FX strategists found. At the start of the year, emerging market currencies looked set for a rough ride on expectations of U.S. economic strength and delayed Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as well as trade tensions. But they have since defied expectations as U.S. President Donald Trump's broader-than-expected but erratically implemented tariff together with a deteriorating fiscal outlook have sparked a flight from the dollar and U.S. assets. That is expected to continue, with more than half the currencies polled forecast to trade in tight ranges or gain, while the rest were expected to give back only a small portion of this year's strong gains, according to a May 30–June 4 poll of more than 50 foreign exchange strategists. "The path of least resistance is a mildly weaker dollar at the moment," said Christopher Turner, head of FX strategy at ING. "We think (the decline) will be sort of modest and gradual and that should keep the mindset for investors to buy EM currencies on dips and that's kind of what we're seeing at the moment." Separately, the dollar has become a preferred funding currency as Trump's trade war fuels recession fears and outflows from U.S. assets. The EM carry trade - borrowing in low-yielding currencies to invest in higher-yielding EM ones - has long attracted investors chasing returns. High-yielders like the South African rand and Brazilian real are up around 6.0 per cent and 10.0 per cent respectively this year. The real was predicted to lose only about 2.0 per cent, while the rand is likely to trade in a tight range over the next six months. "I think the trend for emerging market currency outperformance can continue in the second half of this year, but there are downside risks to be wary of as well," said Lee Hardman, senior currency economist at MUFG, referring to trade disruption and the potential hit to global growth. The Turkish lira, the weakest-performing emerging market currency so far this year, is projected to soften by another 8.0 per cent from 39 per dollar to 42.8/dollar over the next six months. In Asia, the heavily managed Chinese yuan is expected to stay rangebound despite widespread concerns about weak demand in its economy, and a standoff with Washington over tariff policy and export controls. The Indian rupee, Korean won and Thai baht are all expected to gain just less than 1 per cent by the end of November, pointing to steady but modest appreciation. "The big risk we see short-term for emerging market currencies is the risk of a turnaround in dollar sentiment," said Nick Rees, head of Macro Research at Monex Europe. "We do expect longer-term depreciation, but by the same token, we think the dollar looks too cheap on a fundamentals basis right now," added Rees.
CNA
a day ago
- Business
- CNA
Most emerging market currencies set to hold on to gains: Reuters poll
BENGALURU/JOHANNESBURG : Most emerging market currencies will hold the gains they have made this year or extend them against a retreating dollar in the next six months as traders ditch the U.S. exceptionalism trade that fuelled the greenback's dream run, a Reuters poll of FX strategists found. At the start of the year, emerging market currencies looked set for a rough ride on expectations of U.S. economic strength and delayed Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as well as trade tensions. But they have since defied expectations as U.S. President Donald Trump's broader-than-expected but erratically implemented tariff together with a deteriorating fiscal outlook have sparked a flight from the dollar and U.S. assets. That is expected to continue, with more than half the currencies polled forecast to trade in tight ranges or gain, while the rest were expected to give back only a small portion of this year's strong gains, according to a May 30–June 4 poll of more than 50 foreign exchange strategists. "The path of least resistance is a mildly weaker dollar at the moment," said Christopher Turner, head of FX strategy at ING. "We think (the decline) will be sort of modest and gradual and that should keep the mindset for investors to buy EM currencies on dips and that's kind of what we're seeing at the moment." Separately, the dollar has become a preferred funding currency as Trump's trade war fuels recession fears and outflows from U.S. assets. The EM carry trade - borrowing in low-yielding currencies to invest in higher-yielding EM ones - has long attracted investors chasing returns. High-yielders like the South African rand and Brazilian real are up around 6.0 per cent and 10.0 per cent respectively this year. The real was predicted to lose only about 2.0 per cent, while the rand is likely to trade in a tight range over the next six months. "I think the trend for emerging market currency outperformance can continue in the second half of this year, but there are downside risks to be wary of as well," said Lee Hardman, senior currency economist at MUFG, referring to trade disruption and the potential hit to global growth. The Turkish lira, the weakest-performing emerging market currency so far this year, is projected to soften by another 8.0 per cent from 39 per dollar to 42.8/dollar over the next six months. In Asia, the heavily managed Chinese yuan is expected to stay rangebound despite widespread concerns about weak demand in its economy, and a standoff with Washington over tariff policy and export controls. The Indian rupee, Korean won and Thai baht are all expected to gain just less than 1 per cent by the end of November, pointing to steady but modest appreciation. "The big risk we see short-term for emerging market currencies is the risk of a turnaround in dollar sentiment," said Nick Rees, head of Macro Research at Monex Europe. "We do expect longer-term depreciation, but by the same token, we think the dollar looks too cheap on a fundamentals basis right now," added Rees.
Wall Street Journal
3 days ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Asian Currencies Consolidate; Trade Tensions May Support
0029 GMT — Asian currencies consolidate against the greenback in the early morning session, and may be supported by global trade tensions. U.S. assets including the dollar have come under pressure amid renewed U.S. trade tensions with China and Europe, two members of Sucden Financial's research team say in commentary. This has been compounded by U.S. manufacturing weakness, they add. They cite data released Monday showing U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in May. USD/KRW is steady at 1,377.07; AUD/USD is down 0.1% at 0.6489; USD/SGD is little changed at 1.2853. (
